How are you doing? (and Netflix etc recommendations)

[Reborn]

I'm doing really well. My life is changing daily, but it's okay because I am flexible, just like our Zags. I'm also resilient and with your help I won't give up and I will never believe we can't win this battle. I am actually learning to enjoy my new life style. It's different, much more creative...I like that.

thanks for posting everyone...this thread means a lot to me. It's ok to disagree. Remember that. We live in a free society. There is no boss here. Just a bunch of Zag fans trying to help each other. Thanks again for contributing

God bless

Go Zags!!!

[scrooner]

Just thought of something else. If the numbers do skyrocket and we get 100,000+ deaths... what impact will that have on the life insurance industry? As it is I suspect that they are bracing for a huge hit.

Maybe they just don't pay out. I assume they give massive campaign contributions to the right people, who might be inclined to let them off the hook.

[former1dog]

I am curious about this. My reading indicates that COVID is more easily transmitted than the flu (ie one infected person will infect almost three others in average, versus 1.2 for the flu), requires more hospitalizations per 1000 people, and results in approximately ten times as many deaths per 1000 people as the flu.

If this data is wrong F1d and Abe please share your information with me so I can understand how I'm missing the fact that we are shutting down our entire country for something that's no worse than a standard flu.

Here's an article I read that had some of my information:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/815408287/how-the-novel-coronavirus-and-the-flu-are-alike-and-different

229

Only responding because I’m being asked to directly. As I have stated, this is a complex issues with competing priorities. I’d hope you would agree.

I’ll also state for the third time. Listen to public health officials. Follow their recommendations. That is what I am doing.

I also know that you’re exceedingly bright and I’m sure you understand that there “might” have been a different approach to this issue that may have kept death rates down by perhaps taking measures for the at risk population. What if’s aren’t productive though and we’re already on the path we’re on and no one is stopping this train.

The data you are citing is no doubt sound. BUT, it is by definition incomplete, agreed?

We are, in the US, in the midst of or just shy of peak outbreak. None of the numbers are broken down demographically. The data doesn’t tell us a helluva lot yet.

Edited to add this article, which is the basis for my thoughts on the data being incomplete:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

(essentially the positives results are extremely skewed due to the scarcity of tests worldwide and the result that only those with severe symptoms or those at high risk are or have been tested. Not a reliable dataset)

We’ll only know if we reacted correctly 6 months or more from now.

Zagfan24 - Perhaps you have a point about it not being useful to compare Covid 19 to the common flu. There have been serious novel coronavirus outbreaks within the last 2 decades. Is Covid 19 the worst of these? If not, how did we react to/handle the others?

[Markburn1]

For me I can use common sense. If I have a medical problem I go to the doctor, not a mechanic. If I have a car problem, I go to a mechanic, not a doctor. If I'm trying to learn about an unknown virus I go to learn from a scientist who studies these things, I don't go to a teacher. Listen. I have to admit to myself and to you that I am not a scientist or doctor. I do not really know very much about this virus at all. For me to assume that I do and share my OPINIONS I only hurt you and my society. MDAbe said early on that he trusts Dr Fauci...So do I. And I trust Dr Deborah Birx. Why would THEY want to harm us. I believe we are at war with this virus, and it is far more serious than some think. I understand that millions do not believe these two specialist, and imo they are harming us as a Nation. I pray that we as Americans can put our egos aside, and listen to Fauci and Birx as if they are OUR coach Few. AS for me I'm practicing "social distancing" six feet, washing hands ect...and staying in unless I have a real good reason to go out: essential needs as outlined by my state Washington.

God help us. We need it

Go Zags!!!

No doubt, follow the doctor's advice for a medical problem.

But, consider this. This problem is not limited to a medical issue. It's also a logistics and supply line issue. Fauci and Birx have zero expertise in that area.

[Reborn]

you are right....i guess the solution is to create a balance if that is possible.
What do you think about that?

Is the president right to want us to go back to work around Easter?

[kitzbuel]

No doubt, follow the doctor's advice for a medical problem.

But, consider this. This problem is not limited to a medical issue. It's also a logistics and supply line issue. Fauci and Birx have zero expertise in that area.

Birx does. She spent 29 years as an Army Doc, she had to get trained on medical logistics and distribution.

[Markburn1]

you are right....i guess the solution is to create a balance if that is possible.
What do you think about that?

Is the president right to want us to go back to work around Easter?

I honestly don't know. I am of the belief if commerce is suspended much longer we are in grave danger of an economic disaster larger than what we are already facing. And that brings it's own danger to the people of this country's wellbeing.

[MDABE80]

Birx does. She spent 29 years as an Army Doc, she had to get trained on medical logistics and distribution.

And since 2014 she is the Director of the US Global coordinator on HIV. A colonel and immunologist. She’s got the goods. I know of no studies comparing Corona to typical Flu in terms of infection it’s or ease of passing either disease to another human.

With such a low rate of mortality, and with the huge majority of deaths occurring in the debilitated older set, I can see why some may not think this is as dangerous to the 60 and under group. And in the US this is the data. IMHO the media jumped the gun on this. It provided an opportunity to criticize but the words are falling empty.

And m not willing to give up rights based on the data. Not because the media freaks out. We Re not China and not Italy. We are America and we manage problems expeditiously. If I have to guess, this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks.

[Reborn]

And since 2014 she is the Director of the US Global coordinator on HIV. A colonel and immunologist. She’s got the goods. I know of no studies comparing Corona to typical Flu in terms of infection it’s or ease of passing either disease to another human.

With such a low rate of mortality, and with the huge majority of deaths occurring in the debilitated older set, I can see why some may not think this is as dangerous to the 60 and under group. And in the US this is the data. IMHO the media jumped the gun on this. It provided an opportunity to criticize but the words are falling empty.

And m not willing to give up rights based on the data. Not because the media freaks out. We Re not China and not Italy. We are America and we manage problems expeditiously. If I have to guess, this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks.

I really hope you're right, Dr. If that will be the case I am hearing they may have a shortened tennis season (probably all spring sports). My grand daughter is a very good tennis player and could win state this year. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[LTownZag]

Former1dog: “ we are, in the US, in the midst or just shy of peak outbreak”

MDABE80: “ if I have to guess, [you did not] this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks”

If on April 15 it’s clear that you both were hugely mistaken, should we expect to see either of you publicly acknowledge it and change some of your fundamental priors that have been foundational of your thinking and predictions thus far?

[MDABE80]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/infection-rate-slows-in-onetime-epicenter-of-new-yorks-coronavirus-outbreak-11585162134

Things may be turning....surely hope so.

[Hoopaholic]

Only responding because I’m being asked to directly. As I have stated, this is a complex issues with competing priorities. I’d hope you would agree.

I’ll also state for the third time. Listen to public health officials. Follow their recommendations. That is what I am doing.

I also know that you’re exceedingly bright and I’m sure you understand that there “might” have been a different approach to this issue that may have kept death rates down by perhaps taking measures for the at risk population. What if’s aren’t productive though and we’re already on the path we’re on and no one is stopping this train.

The data you are citing is no doubt sound. BUT, it is by definition incomplete, agreed?

We are, in the US, in the midst of or just shy of peak outbreak. None of the numbers are broken down demographically. The data doesn’t tell us a helluva lot yet.

Edited to add this article, which is the basis for my thoughts on the data being incomplete:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

(essentially the positives results are extremely skewed due to the scarcity of tests worldwide and the result that only those with severe symptoms or those at high risk are or have been tested. Not a reliable dataset)

We’ll only know if we reacted correctly 6 months or more from now.

Zagfan24 - Perhaps you have a point about it not being useful to compare Covid 19 to the common flu. There have been serious novel coronavirus outbreaks within the last 2 decades. Is Covid 19 the worst of these? If not, how did we react to/handle the others?

real stats in Pierce County

3,051 tested
155 confirmed cases
115 resolved
6 hospitalized
2 deaths

236 available hospital beds


flu over same time period in PIerce County

4,218 positive
161 admitted to hospital

12 deaths including 2 pediatrics


same time periods different set of facts and interesting to see which one gets no media attention and which one gets all the attention

[Radbooks]

Is there any chance we could get back to the point of this thread? I thought and enjoyed the first few posts because it was about how people are doing under stay at home orders and what to watch, etc. Or maybe move this to the FOO.

[former1dog]

Former1dog: “ we are, in the US, in the midst or just shy of peak outbreak”

MDABE80: “ if I have to guess, [you did not] this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks”

If on April 15 it’s clear that you both were hugely mistaken, should we expect to see either of you publicly acknowledge it and change some of your fundamental priors that have been foundational of your thinking and predictions thus far?

Dude,

Take care of yourself, listen to public health officials(4th time I’ve said that). Stop asking strangers on the internet stupid questions. Abe can speak for himself, but I’m pretty sure he told you and everyone else to listen to Dr. Fauci.

[MDABE80]

Ltown was bounced a few weeks ago by Reno as I recall. He's on ignore since. Yes by all means....Tony's the greatest . Former, I must point how how much I've enjoyed your thoughts from your posts today. We're not that far apart.