Roth, Zags plan for season of uncertainty

[Markburn1]

Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?




*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.


(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)

Wouldn't you say this chart is misleading? I see these # of cases charts almost universally. What you don't see on a consistent basis are the charts that show hospitalizations and deaths.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard

Consider chart # 2. It shows deaths in Washington State are 8-10 times less than at the peak.

Consider chart # 6. It shows hospitalizations in the state to be approximately 75% of the peak.

Isn't it probable that the virus has claimed the most vulnerable and though cases are climbing for various reasons the folks that are being infected are nowhere near the danger of death and hospitalization we saw at peak?

I don't know how to post the charts. If someone would be so kind to do so I would appreciate it.

[sonuvazag]

Wouldn't you say this chart is misleading? I see these # of cases charts almost universally. What you don't see on a consistent basis are the charts that show hospitalizations and deaths.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard

Consider chart # 2. It shows deaths in Washington State are 8-10 times less than at the peak.

Consider chart # 6. It shows hospitalizations in the state to be approximately 75% of the peak.

Isn't it probable that the virus has claimed the most vulnerable and though cases are climbing for various reasons the folks that are being infected are nowhere near the danger of death and hospitalization we saw at peak?

I don't know how to post the charts. If someone would be so kind to do so I would appreciate it.

The more likely explanation for me is that testing capacity has expanded and a higher percentage of the total actual infections are being documented. However, the recent trend is still not good and spikes in hospitalizations and deaths are typically going to be lagging after the spikes in cases.

[Markburn1]

The more likely explanation for me is that testing capacity has expanded and a higher percentage of the total actual infections are being documented. However, the recent trend is still not good and spikes in hospitalizations and deaths are typically going to be lagging after the spikes in cases.

That isn't what the data says. Cases have been going up for several weeks now, yet deaths and hospitalizations have been going down. That's what the charts say.

Can one of you tech wizards post the charts please?

[sonuvazag]

That isn't what the data says. Cases have been going up for several weeks now, yet deaths and hospitalizations have been going down. That's what the charts say.

Can one of you tech wizards post the charts please?

I'm looking at the daily rolling 7 day average on the chart Caduceus posted and you quoted. It looks like that trend line has only been substantially going up for the last week, doubling in that time frame.

When contact tracing started, it was expected that documented cases would go up because we would be doing targeted testing of many aysymptomatic or presymptomatic people. So a rise in cases as that happened did not necessarily indicate a rise in infections and a steady trend line might have meant that infections were actually going down during that time. Which would explain why hospitalizations and deaths were declining while the trend line was pretty steady from April 16 - June 16.

[Markburn1]

As for Europe doing so much better than us cretins in the U.S. that don't value lives like they do...

Deaths per million people due to Covid.
US 374
UK 637
Spain 606
Italy 574
Belgium 839
Sweden 518
France 455
Netherlands 356
Ireland 350

Stats from Worldometer.

[johno]

The Center for Disease Control has all the science based information and advice and if people would strictly follow it we could beat this thing. No leadership at the top is one big problem. Are we turning into a society in which the preventable deaths of many innocent people is the cost we are prepared to accept?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

[Markburn1]

The Center for Disease Control has all the science based information and advice and if people would strictly follow it we could beat this thing. No leadership at the top is one big problem. Are we turning into a society in which the preventable deaths of many innocent people is the cost we are prepared to accept?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

Way too simplistic. Are we willing to accept deaths due to the poverty caused by lockdowns? Are we willing to accept deaths due to people not taking care of other health issues? Are we willing to accept deaths due to the increased rate of suicide? Are we willing to see millions of people in third world countries die from starvation because we are protecting our people to their detriment?

Absolutely. Wash your hands. Social distance. Wear a mask.

But, brushing aside all the consequences of policies that create death to save death is folly.

[Markburn1]

I'm pessimistic about having a basketball season because there are so many wildly different viewpoints from politicians state to state, conference to conference, etc. Some will insist that the danger is minimal. Some won't want to take the chance of compromising the health of any one athlete. I don't see much will to compromise.

[LTownZag]

That isn't what the data says. Cases have been going up for several weeks now, yet deaths and hospitalizations have been going down. That's what the charts say.

Can one of you tech wizards post the charts please?

Here's the confirmed (lab tests) case count. Cases have been going up for about 2.5 weeks, as Mark says. We've also seen rising percentage of tests being positive in that time (from 4.6 to 5.2%) so we're testing more people and also having more of each batch show COVID infections. Deaths have always lagged new cases by something like 3 weeks. (of those who die, the average number of days they've had COVID is in the 3week range).

Here are deaths, which Mark also correctly notes have been falling. The regularly spaced (weekly) peaks and valleys are due to different reporting/delaying of deaths on the weekends.




And one graph with USA daily confirmed cases and deaths.



The median age of Americans now testing positive is 35. As MDABE has pointed out, the majority of those who die are over 65. So if/as the infected population skews younger than before, the fatality rate will drop.

I would love a good source for overall national hospitalizations, or hospitalizations due to respiratory illness (influenza-like-symptoms). I don't know of one.



Note: this is Florida and not national, so it may not be representative.

Note also: In April we were testing so few people nationally, and generally just far sicker and more symptomatic people, such that the median age for all testing was likely much older than the median age of our current more widespread testing. I couldn't find data on how the median age of all people given a COVID test has changed over time. Which is to say, a large drop in the median age for people positive doesn't necessarily mean the disease truly is currently infecting a younger cohort of the population than 2 months ago. But my (hunch/opinion time) sense is that people over 65yrs old truly are trying to isolate and mask up much more than younger folks, and that the median age of all those infected (not just tested) really has come down enough to mean (I predict) we'll see at least a 30% lower infection fatality rate in July than in April. By August1 we'll know if my prediction is correct.

[MDABE80]

Markburn says..."isn't it probable that the virus has claimed the most vulnerable and though cases are climbing for various reasons the folks that are being infected are nowhere near the danger of death and hospitalization we saw at peak?

Exactly what's happening Mark. Good call. As the vulnerable people are passing, there's been a move to infect the younger people ( ie under 30 yrs) who seem to be tolerating the disease better. So the death rate is down. But the death rate has been only 2nd to Germany all along. Media is trying to scare the crap out of us, Think of it this way: Influenza generally takes about 80 K lives annually and it's been between that number and 60K for the past 20 years. Who dies? The elderly with comorbid diseases or those who have impaired immunity which is usual in the older set ( 82% of mortality is the over 65 group) . How often have you heard an under 30 death? Not often even though it happens....(Scrooner knows of a 27 yr old who sounds like she's in deep trouble with COVID)...it's unusual though and there always be a few outliers.

Tony says he should have 250 million vaccines ready by mid December. He's usually right on this stuff...…...very conservative in predictions as we've all seen.
I think we'll be fine as thing dwindle. There will be spikes though. Not everywhere but in a few places.

[sonuvazag]

Here's the confirmed (lab tests) case count. Cases have been going up for about 2.5 weeks, as Mark says. We've also seen rising percentage of tests being positive in that time (from 4.6 to 5.2%) so we're testing more people and also having more of each batch show COVID infections. Deaths have always lagged new cases by something like 3 weeks. (of those who die, the average number of days they've had COVID is in the 3week range).

Here are deaths, which Mark also correctly notes have been falling. The regularly spaced (weekly) peaks and valleys are due to different reporting/delaying of deaths on the weekends.




And one graph with USA daily confirmed cases and deaths.



The median age of Americans now testing positive is 35. As MDABE has pointed out, the majority of those who die are over 65. So if/as the infected population skews younger than before, the fatality rate will drop.

I would love a good source for overall national hospitalizations, or hospitalizations due to respiratory illness (influenza-like-symptoms). I don't know of one.



Note: this is Florida and not national, so it may not be representative.

Note also: In April we were testing so few people nationally, and generally just far sicker and more symptomatic people, such that the median age for all testing was likely much older than the median age of our current more widespread testing. I couldn't find data on how the median age of all people given a COVID test has changed over time. Which is to say, a large drop in the median age for people positive doesn't necessarily mean the disease truly is currently infecting a younger cohort of the population than 2 months ago. But my (hunch/opinion time) sense is that people over 65yrs old truly are trying to isolate and mask up much more than younger folks, and that the median age of all those infected (not just tested) really has come down enough to mean (I predict) we'll see at least a 30% lower infection fatality rate in July than in April. By August1 we'll know if my prediction is correct.

Just a note, Markburn and I were referring to Washington state data.

[scrooner]

As it relates to basketball, if one person on a team catches it, the entire team is going to be quarantined for 2 weeks, right? If so, and if anyone on one of the teams we are playing catches it within 2 weeks of us playing them, that game will be cancelled. If anyone on our team catches it, all our games are cancelled for 2 weeks. If a state becomes involved in a travel ban, more games cancelled.

This just creates additional questions:

During this 2 week quarantine, would the team still practice? Would the individual(s) be held out of practices, or would they practice with COVID if they are asymptomatic, and infect others? If someone has debilitating symptoms, what's the recovery period like?

How are WCC standings/National rankings determined if/when teams end up playing significantly fewer games than the teams around them? Or is there a point when individuals or teams just get shut down for the season, while other teams continue on?

[LTownZag]

Media is trying to scare the crap out of us, Think of it this way: Influenza generally takes about 80 K lives annually and it's been between that number and 60K for the past 20 years.

For the past 20 years flu deaths have averaged 35,000. It's been barely above 60k (it was 61k) 1 year, the worst on record. See column on the right. Data from CDC/Hopkins.

(32.7k from 2001-2010, and 37k in the last decade)

So the death rate is down. But the death rate has been only 2nd to Germany all along.

What does this sentence mean to you? Are saying that "all along" (so at all times? or currently? or ever?) the USA had the world's second lowest infected fatality rate? 2nd lowest something else? I'm genuinely curious what you are saying you believe about the world here. I'm not disagreeing or presenting contradictory data, just hoping to understand what specifically you think you are saying or intend to be saying.

[sylean]

quarentine was and is ridiculous for an otherwise healthy populace instead of ASKING vulnerable people to self isolate...the virus wasn't going to go away....even the people with the strictest isolation...nursing homes....got it and many died,behind closed doors, no visitors, extra cleaning, blah blah blah..

no we are not mature.....mature human beings don't believe in fairy tales as in "nothing bad will happen if we just hide".....

I could see lockdown for a couple of weeks while supplies were en massed and plans made....perhaps keeping the hospitals shutdown for a few more weeks to make sure there was room for the mythical "surge"....

but after that, its just insanity....

and how people in the hospitals are facing furloughs because the hospitals are bankrupt....

I agree....we are a very immature society.....

[LTownZag]

Just a note, Markburn and I were referring to Washington state data.

Gotcha.

Here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/sta...s/washington/0

WA really has been skating through this with very very few deaths so far. Never yet hit 30/day and under 10/day for the past 4 weeks.