How does no sports in California until 2021 affect the Zags?

[GonzagasaurusFlex]

when I imagine the scenario, like a previous post, the problem will be when a member of a team, even one, comes up positive for covid19. The whole team will have been exposed for a week. If the athletes live under a special regimen close to a quarantine, way stricter than the general population, and are tested continuously, we have a chance. Since a player can be passing this disease to others with no symptoms of his own, it means other players and refs, will be exposed to a rather small space (the basketball floor) full of huffing and puffing and shouting and touching. It is not as easy as AIDS was in the 80's and 90's where the problem was infected player's blood to other player's orifice. This is more contagious than most flues and has a longer incubation period, and also is spread by people (what , one fifth of the time) who never show symptoms, ever.
putting players on a permanent quarantine has a chance, but at what point can the spectators in the arena be quarantined?
It seems to me it would easier to space arenas to 1/6 capacity, than to keep whole teams uncontaminated for most of a whole season.
lots of worries, lots of hopes.
seems like the best hope for this, and other similar diseases in the future, will be to have vast resources devoted to speeding up the creation and dissemination of vaccines. It would almost be worth any expense to quicken this process. since I know nothing about the process, maybe there are limitations to the process that a whole industry could not speed up.
It certainly doesn't help that countries like China and Russia cannot be trusted to provide accurate numbers or be good faith partners of the int'l community. The political filters through which all of their announcements to the world must pass through are extensive. They and other authoritarian regimes keep their media under tight controls, and constantly attack the free media to keep their own citizens confused. The only way we get basketball back is through science transparently reaching the public, because only the public always has the public interest at heart, if they have accurate info.
there, that's my speech about getting basketball back.

Agree with all of the above ZGZ. Bigger issue threatening there even being a 2020-21 college hoops season is universities may quite possibly not even allow students back on campus for the fall semester or until there is a vaccine. I’m no lawyer but wouldn’t schools have huge liability if they allow students back on campus before a vaccine is available? If students don’t come back to campus in the fall, that’s a wrap for college sports.

[Bogozags]

I think the first step will be the return of sports with no spectators. To me, the key to that will be comprehensive testing and the ability to get results quickly. I see Emirates Airlines is testing people at the airport with results in about 10 minutes, so there is some rapid testing that is taking place in limited circumstances.

The ability to be able to do that prior to traveling, while on the road, and right before a game would go a long ways in teams being able to play. I could see once teams arrive at the game venue, all staff and athletes submitting to a test, then once results are known, being able to go on the floor to play. With spectators it will be further down the road I think. Before we start allowing large crowds to congregate in my mind we need 3 things....1) comprehensive testing with rapid results, 2) vigorous contact tracing to limit the spread with those traced willing to self-quarantine, and 3) some effective treatments to help mitigate and reduce mortality in the high risk groups. A vaccine would be nice too.... Stay safe and healthy everyone!

Jed you touched on all the topics of which I thought would be difference makers...

I found your fact about Emirates Airlines a little bit disconcerting in that it seems like "money" is the determining factor on availability of instant testing, which is something we need to use to free-up the US. I still don't understand how many of the states say they can't get the needed quantity of "testing kits" while the federal government's reply is that there are more than enough availability...seems like there is a communications break down somewhere...

Questions: Do you think that all these chemists world wide are working together to make a vaccine or are they working independently so that there company can make big money selling their vaccine? If it's the latter then how many vaccines could we have that would be viable?

[DADoZAG]

Jed you touched on all the topics of which I thought would be difference makers...

I found your fact about Emirates Airlines a little bit disconcerting in that it seems like "money" is the determining factor on availability of instant testing, which is something we need to use to free-up the US. I still don't understand how many of the states say they can't get the needed quantity of "testing kits" while the federal government's reply is that there are more than enough availability...seems like there is a communications break down somewhere...

Questions: Do you think that all these chemists world wide are working together to make a vaccine or are they working independently so that there company can make big money selling their vaccine? If it's the latter then how many vaccines could we have that would be viable?

Longing for the OCC....

The answers to all your questions on Jedsters' post are available, Bogo, just search "reagents" and "swabs", not to mention your question about money ruling when something is needed is surprising. In the society for which we live, when doesn't it?

That is why we need government, and ours SHOULD be able to get anything WE need.

Not playing politics, so those that want to pull that card shouldn't. Facts are facts, buying power is buying power, and international logistics require international power houses to step up and fight the war this really is rather than trying to paint a rosy picture based on minimal success. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, stop crowing and do something.

Mick, as is his MO, opened this conversation correctly, and ZGZ carried it on. Testing, tracing, treatment and vaccine(s) are the path forward. THERE CAN BE A SEASON, there can be an economy.

Come on, our greatest year as ZAG fans is upon us. Don't let political story telling get in the way of this. If you can't do it for Human Kind, if you can't do it for our Society, our Country, our Community, do it for our ZAGS. Speak out against the story telling, speak out against those that fear their role in all this, speak out for your ZAGS, and lets' get the job done.

In the immortal words of LIZF, "...it is us."

And to those that want to protest intelligent policies, please know that you must also give up your right for treatment should your ignorant action put you standing directly in the path of the oncoming bus. Superman is fiction also, and although healthcare givers are as close to that moniker as any that have come before them, they shouldn't be expected to waste valuable resources or risk their own health on those that chose to welcome the outcome of this ravenous disease. May there be mercy on you.

Go ZAGS!

Bring back the OCC, and I promise to behave....

[sonuvazag]

Longing for the OCC....

The answers to all your questions on Jedsters' post are available, Bogo, just search "reagents" and "swabs", not to mention your question about money ruling when something is needed is surprising. In the society for which we live, when doesn't it?

That is why we need government, and ours SHOULD be able to get anything WE need.

Not playing politics, so those that want to pull that card shouldn't. Facts are facts, buying power is buying power, and international logistics require international power houses to step up and fight the war this really is rather than trying to paint a rosy picture based on minimal success. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, stop crowing and do something.

Mick, as is his MO, opened this conversation correctly, and ZGZ carried it on. Testing, tracing, treatment and vaccine(s) are the path forward. THERE CAN BE A SEASON, there can be an economy.

Come on, our greatest year as ZAG fans is upon us. Don't let political story telling get in the way of this. If you can't do it for Human Kind, if you can't do it for our Society, our Country, our Community, do it for our ZAGS. Speak out against the story telling, speak out against those that fear their role in all this, speak out for your ZAGS, and lets' get the job done.

In the immortal words of LIZF, "...it is us."

And to those that want to protest intelligent policies, please know that you must also give up your right for treatment should your ignorant action put you standing directly in the path of the oncoming bus. Superman is fiction also, and although healthcare givers are as close to that moniker as any that have come before them, they shouldn't be expected to waste valuable resources or risk their own health on those that chose to welcome the outcome of this ravenous disease. May there be mercy on you.

Go ZAGS!

Bring back the OCC, and I promise to behave....

I miss the OCC, too. I enjoy discussing politics and enjoyed it more on the OCC where the level of discourse was so much better than what you can typically find on the internet. Plus, if a discussion on the basketball board veered into a politics, there was a place to move the thread instead of closing it.

[JPtheBeasta]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

If verified and repeated with similar results this antibody study puts the death rate in the 1 person in 1000 range.

[sonuvazag]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....14.20062463v1

If verified and repeated with similar results this antibody study puts the death rate in the 1 person in 1000 range.

You arriving at the number dividing confirmed deaths by presumed infections in Santa Clara?

[sonuvazag]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....14.20062463v1

If verified and repeated with similar results this antibody study puts the death rate in the 1 person in 1000 range.

And that would be great news, but I'm skeptical as New York City's 14,000 reported deaths is already close to the 2 person in 1000 total population range (unless the city's reported deaths include the entire metro statistical area ... but even then we'd have to assume the 70-80% of the metro statistical area had already been infected to arrive at something close to .1%).

Nontheless, I am hoping the serology tests do let us know this is less deadly than many have feared.

[JPtheBeasta]

You arriving at the number dividing confirmed deaths by presumed infections in Santa Clara?

Oh, sorry. That is the gist of it, but I wasn’t the one who made the calculation. That estimate is from Dr. Bhattacharya, from the Uncommon knowledge podcast. It also matches what Dr. Ioannidis has been saying previously (it meshes pretty well with the study from Vo, Italy). The Iceland study gives an estimate of the prevalence that is lower, but still much higher than what our targeted testing has been saying so far. They did testing in New Rochelle, NY that showed much higher prevalence than what is suggested by targeted testing.

I will say that if we include the 80% of cases that we are told are mildly symptomatic with the ones we do test, the total number of infected goes from 750k to 3.7 million (I just divided confirmed cases by .2; this makes the assumption that we are only testing— a few exceptions— the very sickest persons). This drops the death rate to 0.96%

[JPtheBeasta]

And that would be great news, but I'm skeptical as New York City's 14,000 reported deaths is already close to the 2 person in 1000 total population range (unless the city's reported deaths include the entire metro statistical area ... but even then we'd have to assume the 70-80% of the metro statistical area had already been infected to arrive at something close to .1%).

Nontheless, I am hoping the serology tests do let us know this is less deadly than many have feared.

I would not be surprised if the prevalence in New York is much higher than 3%. They already have much higher targeted test rates than the rest of the country (something like 40% percent of persons tested over there are confirmed positive, vs 20% elsewhere; these are estimates off the top of my head).

New York also just added presumed Covid deaths to their data, so their data isn’t as valuable for comparison.

[JPtheBeasta]

And that would be great news, but I'm skeptical as New York City's 14,000 reported deaths is already close to the 2 person in 1000 total population range (unless the city's reported deaths include the entire metro statistical area ... but even then we'd have to assume the 70-80% of the metro statistical area had already been infected to arrive at something close to .1%).

Nontheless, I am hoping the serology tests do let us know this is less deadly than many have feared.

The study is awaiting peer review, which I feel is important to point out. It is also important to note that I am being an armchair epidemiologist and have no special training in this area.

[sonuvazag]

I would not be surprised if the prevalence in New York is much higher than 3%. They already have much higher targeted test rates than the rest of the country (something like 40% percent of persons tested over there are confirmed positive, vs 20% elsewhere; these are estimates off the top of my head).

New York also just added presumed Covid deaths to their data, so their data isn’t as valuable for comparison.

Obviously, the number of actual infections is much higher than the confirmed cases. Same is true of actual deaths vs confirmed deaths, although I would not expect the multiple to be as high.

I think presumed deaths, when discussing it as a proportion of presumed cases, is more valuable since we are attempting to get as close as possible to a true rate.

[JPtheBeasta]

It has been difficult to see how many persons are dying with Covid vs dying from Covid. At this point, it seems we are overestimating the deaths from Covid, but this ignores persons who were never tested and died from the disease, of course.

[sonuvazag]

It has been difficult to see how many persons are dying with Covid vs dying from Covid. At this point, it seems we are overestimating the deaths from Covid, but this ignores persons who were never tested and died from the disease, of course.

The scientists can look at the excess deaths aboved the usual or expected deaths from previous years. (This is part of the process in NYC). There is no precise way to know exactly how many have died from COVID-19, but the difference in deaths from previous years is statistically useful in a similar way to how a serology test is used to extrapolate an estimate for infections in the total population.

For example, as of March 31, the Italian city of Nembro had 158 deaths in 2020 as opposed to 35 on average in the previous five years. But Nembro had only counted 31 confirmed deaths from COVID-19. So 31 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the town, but over 120 more deaths (4X confimred deaths) than the same timeframe in the previous five years with no other reasonable explanation for the discrepancy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-01/coronavirus-italy-shows-we-may-be-underestimating-death-toll

I'm not in a position to say how much we are underestimating COVID-19 deaths in the United States, but we definitely are. And if, for example, we're counting half in our confirmed total, that difference would be hugely influential in how dangerous this is.

[Mr Vulture]

It has been difficult to see how many persons are dying with Covid vs dying from Covid. At this point, it seems we are overestimating the deaths from Covid, but this ignores persons who were never tested and died from the disease, of course.

This is what I think as well. It is important to know how many were really infected which takes the testing of groups randomly. It would also be important to know how many passed away from Covid only versus those with Covid and underlying issues. Both are important to know but add more context.

I think the infection rate is multiples higher than reported so I think the mortality rate will drop drastically as we get more data.

In any case, sports coming back will require a lot of testing. This what needs to be the focus moving forward from a production standpoint.

I personally believe that we will get where we need to be although I think it may be July by the time it’s all in place


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[JPtheBeasta]

I think that the isolate and contact-trace thing probably is too hard to make work right now to help the general population but would be very useful to track sick team members and stuff as we open things back up.