Mid-Season Bilas Rankings: GU at # 2

[JPtheBeasta]

After your point, and thinking on it harder, maybe it helps us in that we normally only go 7 guys and foul trouble from "more fouls" called would be a real issue in some games, even conference games.

That’s a good point

[TexasZagFan]

I'd have to say defense too, giving up way too many uncontested shots.

The free throws have been bugging me all year, every time they miss one it's like nails on a chalk board. But I crunched some numbers and see on average GU shoots about 24 free throws per game and makes about 16, 65%. If GU was a good free throw shooting team they'd make about 75%, which is only 18 per game. We're talking about 2 points per game. I know that doesn't account for front ends of one and ones or anything, but I think it's more important to look at how many more free throws we get than our opponents. Even shooting 65% we still have made way more than our opponents have even attempted.

What's been bugging me about the missed free throws are the way they're missing them...all over the place, short off the front rim, or off the sides of the rim. I can live with FT's that clang off the back of the rim, because that's how I was taught, i.e. aim for the back rim.

[TacomaZAG]

Bilas, and all the other Dukies, crack me up..............Reading the article, the Bilastrator says this...."If the basketball community believes that any team "can win on a given day", the separating factor among equal teams is just how many "given days" you have had. Every game counts".

He then miraculously transforms to the ultimate "smoothing" language, simply dismissing the Duke SFA loss as a "bad outing"............Really Jay?? During the GU/Pepperdine game, ESPN showed a graphic that, against the spread, the Duke loss to SFA was the worst upset of the decade. And the graphic didn't take into account the fact that the loss was at Cameron Indoor, which probably vaults the loss into the realm of worst college defeats in NCAA history.

Sorry Jay, that loss is season ending for Duke, at least as far as the rankings go. As a comparison, imagine if GU lost to Detroit Mercy at the Kennel this year. Do you think Jay would be as "understanding" of that loss as he is of the Duke loss to SFA. If you do............I have a bridge I want to sell you, and a Nigerian prince friend of mine might want a short term loan. With that type of loss, GU would drop out of the Top 25 and be eliminated from a possible top 4 seed in the Dance.

Sorry for the rant, this kind of willful blindness just gets old. ZAGS and Duke are nowhere near "equal" this year, at least not yet, if the OOC record is the measuring stick, as Jay wants us to believe it is. They may be "equal" in a month, maybe not, but they definitely aren't now, at the end of the OOC.

Just like the Patriots in the NFL, Duke has to "earn" their ranking each year, it shouldn't simply be anointed based on the name on the front of the jersey.

Go ZAGS

[RenoZag]

Speaking of other Dookies: Like Bilas, Seth Davis has issued a mid-season synopsis using a "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" format in his "Stock Report." Unlike Bilas, it's behind a paywall at The Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/1510864/2020/01/06/hoop-thoughts-stock-report-seth-davis-college-basketball-buy-sell-hold/

His take on Gonzaga ? "Hold"

I still believe the Zags (16-1, No. 1 AP, No. 9 KenPom) are a legit national championship favorite, but I must say their first two WCC games have me a little spooked. They had to overcome a seven-point halftime deficit to win their opener at Portland, and Pepperdine pushed them at home before Gonzaga won by five. My main concern, though, is whether oft-injured 6-10 forward Killian Tillie can stay healthy the remainder of the season. That aside, Mark Few did a tremendous job restocking his roster with two transfers, 6-3 senior point guard Ryan Woolridge and 6-4 senior grad transfer Admon Gilder, but it’s the next-man-up development of returning guys such as 6-7 junior Corey Kispert and 6-11 sophomore Filip Petrusev that has the Zags poised to earn another No. 1 seed.

He rates BYU a "Buy" and St. Mary's a "Hold."

[MDABE80]

I think Bilas has it exactly right. Duke's defensive rating is much better than GU's and for that reason I would give Duke a slight advantage right now. However, GU beats Duke in ALL other KenPom stat categories except Off Reb % and FT% (and those are really important ones). Duke takes a higher % of 2pt shots than GU and lower % of 3pt shots than GU but both teams take well below the national average number of 3's. Duke has a much tougher strength of schedule than GU. GU is bigger and more experienced. I would love to see those two teams face off in the National Championship game.

Correct Bilas is saying what we’ve been saying for 2 months. Now it’s being confirmed each game. I do fervently home deficiencies are corrected or we go home early. Harkens back to Wichita St game. They were hot and our defense was porous. Drat! I love defense. Just like the FF team played! Go Zags!

[amaronizag]

In the 10 years I have been following and 6 or so years I have been posting on this board, ABE has always sung the same tune...defense, defense, defense. I have always been a fan of fast break and score because offense can win a lot of games when your defense is bad. But ABE is right, when you reach the NCAA tournament, you can't win many games with weak defense. Defense isn't as sexy as offense for most folks, but it's what brings home the trophy's.

[bartruff1]

Speaking of other Dookies: Like Bilas, Seth Davis has issued a mid-season synopsis using a "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" format in his "Stock Report." Unlike Bilas, it's behind a paywall at The Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/1510864/2020/01/06/hoop-thoughts-stock-report-seth-davis-college-basketball-buy-sell-hold/

His take on Gonzaga ? "Hold"



He rates BYU a "Buy" and St. Mary's a "Hold."

I would suppose that would put Gonzaga on the Goldman Sachs Convictions Buy List for 2020....