Iran and Israel

[former1dog]

I'm sure this statement will go over like a milky way floating in a swimming pool with my friends who happen to be Obama supporters but oh well.

I think Obama's apology tour, lack of stronger support for the recent Iranian election demonstrators and continued weak knee attempts to engage the theocratic and repressive regime in Iran has litterally set us back years if not decades in our attempts to bring Iran into the fold of responsible states who don't pose a threat to their neighbors and the world.

Obama's approach has actually strengthened Ahmadinejad, who once was a loud mouthed figure head but I believe could legitimately contend for absolute dictator status as his populist message resonates with enough Iranians. Are there term limits anyway in Iran? Any reason he can't just go on winning rigged elections for life?

All of these recent developments including the Obama administrations abandonment of Israel will indeed force Israel's hand and I believe it will be sooner rather than later, especially with this latest news. The repercussions could be very, very bad and IMO could have been avoided and perhaps still can. Obama needs to sack up, though, and put HEAVY pressure on France, Russia and China. A very risky tactic to be sure and one that could blow up in our face, but the alternative is worse and that is a nuclear arms race in the middle east. Oy VEY!!

[NJZag]

Originally Posted by SonofZagineer

I want to say something along the lines of I wish there was a missle shield cause right now Iran could reach the East Coast. But, I know a whole bunch of people on this board will say something about how it is not proven and blah blah blah. So I guess I won't say anything .

I'm all ears. (Errr, eyes? ) Are you talking about the kind of Star Wars missile shield that Reagan proposed, once upon a time?

[bartruff1]

that Israel has to fear is the demographic bomb...from everything I have read in the Press, Israel lacks the ability to do anything but set the progam (if there is a program..the last NIE sez they abandoned the effort to build a bomb) back a few months. I doubt they will do anything . MAD might be good for the region.

[SonofZagineer]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/...est/index.html

[kitzbuel]

Originally Posted by bartruff1

that Israel has to fear is the demographic bomb...from everything I have read in the Press, Israel lacks the ability to do anything but set the progam (if there is a program..the last NIE sez they abandoned the effort to build a bomb) back a few months. I doubt they will do anything . MAD might be good for the region.

I find it ironic that you posted this the day before Ahmadinejad announced that Iran is opening another enrichment facility.

[bartruff1]

and it looks to me that Iran has the winning hand..the chickens are coming home to roost....it would be tempting to blame Bush for the situation we now find ourselves in today (divided nation...weak dollar...historic debt....fragile economic recovery....stressed military ...energy dependence...it goes on and on... ), but in fairness it has been our catastrophic domestic and foreign policies over the last 60 years....

[NJZag]

Originally Posted by bartruff1

and it looks to me that Iran has the winning hand..the chickens are coming home to roost....it would be tempting to blame Bush for the situation we now find ourselves in today (divided nation...weak dollar...historic debt....fragile economic recovery....stressed military ...energy dependence...it goes on and on... ), but in fairness it has been our catastrophic domestic and foreign policies over the last 60 years....

... dang tootin' !!!

Time to ROLL UP THE SLEEVES and TACKLE 'EM!

But hey, when George Lopez asks you to do a promo for him on TBS ...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqZgIyyLc90

Or the Chicago bid for the Olympics in 2016 might not be a "lock"

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS...pics.politics/


Yo .... the brush fires gotta wait.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQFXGzp8Tl4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCp8Edp4pfo

[bartruff1]

I hope you are right....I think (hope) that the public is more willing to make the necessary changes and sacrifices in the intrests of providing a safe and stable society and a healthy environment for future generations...but I don't see the politicians having the backbone...there are always winners and losers in change ....

[JohnnyGonzaga]

אלוהים יברך את ישראל!

Israel is being faced with an impossible descision. It is bad no matter the choice. The worst choice is to allow Iran to have a bomb.

Israel received two more U212s subs today. They have 5 total. They are capable of launching cruise missiles carrying nuclear warheads. The situation is very very scary. Israel will NOT allow Iran to have a nuclear bomb period. It will end up in the hands of suicide bombers.

The problem is that conventional warhead bombings will only delay Iran for a few months, knocking out only the upper facility that is not buried in the ground. The only way to delay it for years is a to wait till June (which may not be soon enough) for Bunker busters from the United States, a full blown attack on Iran's infrastructure or the use of tactical nukes on the sites. The last two options will unite Iranian's with their leaders and a full scale war will occur accross the middle east..

If Iran continues it's current timetable, we may see a tactical nuke or two explode. This is really serious. Anyway you look at it, The United States will be involved either in a defensive manor or an aggresive one.

The question is -- What will China and Russia do? They have billions and billions of dollars invested in Iran. On the other hand, Russia stands to benifet from high oil prices.

Time is running out.

[former1dog]

We've been talking to Iran for 30 years

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...560824682.html

The truth, as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said last October at the National Defense University, is that "every administration since 1979 has reached out to the Iranians in one way or another and all have failed."

Thirty years of negotiations and sanctions have failed to end the Iranian nuclear program and its war against the West. Why should anyone think they will work now? A change in Iran requires a change in government. Common sense and moral vision suggest we should support the courageous opposition movement, whose leaders have promised to end support for terrorism and provide total transparency regarding the nuclear program.

[xjzico]

Originally Posted by SonofZagineer

Sinto you have very valued points. But why would you give something up that could be used as leverage in the future for nothing now?

SoZ post from 9/17/09 re: conceding Eastern Euro missile shield.

Originally Posted by NJZag

I'm all ears. (Errr, eyes? ) Are you talking about the kind of Star Wars missile shield that Reagan proposed, once upon a time?

Maybe the concession on the missile shield was in exchange for Russian participation in negotiations and/or support of sanctions.

Netanyahu says Russians toughened stance on Iran nukes

Iran's Geneva Offer on Nukes: Progress for Both Sides

I don't know what to make of the second link, or the Iran offer to Russia, just yet.

[a13coach]

Anyone still not convinced Israel will have a strike first approach to nuclear weapons in Iran?
WIRED

[Once and Future Zag]

Israel built their 150-odd Nukes to use them on somebody...but they're the "good guys" so they must be intending those nukes for humanitarian purposes.

[SonofZagineer]

Originally Posted by Once and Future Zag

Israel built their 150-odd Nukes to use them on somebody...but they're the "good guys" so they must be intending those nukes for humanitarian purposes.

No, they have them to protect their country from lets say pratcially all their neighbors.

[xjzico]

The argument can be be made that none of the middle eastern countries present a conventional existential threat to Israel- and this was clear before Israel acquired their nukes.

[Once and Future Zag]

Originally Posted by SonofZagineer

No, they have them to protect their country from lets say pratcially all their neighbors.

Yep - nukes are great defensive weapons. . .

Lets' be clear. Nuclear weapons are solely offensive or retaliatory weapons. There are no possible defensive usages. They are indiscriminate WMD's and radiation poisoning is a nasty business. I'd put the use of them up there with weaponized germ warfare or chemical warfare as truly horrific war crimes (yeah I went there). Nuclear weapons are as close to a pure objective evil as humankind has ever worked up in their darkest nightmares.

The problem is that so many people conflate even the slightest criticism of Israel to be anti-Jewish in source. Consider this, if any other nation in the world had 150+ 'secret' nukes, were not signatory to any non-proliferation treaties, had policy defined by paranoia about their neighbors, displacement of ethnic minorities, and mandatory Military service, what do you think our government would be doing? Sending them additional military aid?

I understand that the Israeli state feels under siege by their neighbors.
I respect their right to exist, but not to hold the world hostage to their paranoia.

[a13coach]

Originally Posted by Once and Future Zag

Yep - nukes are great defensive weapons. . .

Lets' be clear. Nuclear weapons are solely offensive or retaliatory weapons. There are no possible defensive usages. They are indiscriminate WMD's and radiation poisoning is a nasty business. I'd put the use of them up there with weaponized germ warfare or chemical warfare as truly horrific war crimes (yeah I went there). Nuclear weapons are as close to a pure objective evil as humankind has ever worked up in their darkest nightmares.

The problem is that so many people conflate even the slightest criticism of Israel to be anti-Jewish in source. Consider this, if any other nation in the world had 150+ 'secret' nukes, were not signatory to any non-proliferation treaties, had policy defined by paranoia about their neighbors, displacement of ethnic minorities, and mandatory Military service, what do you think our government would be doing? Sending them additional military aid?

I understand that the Israeli state feels under siege by their neighbors.
I respect their right to exist, but not to hold the world hostage to their paranoia.

Do you really think it is paranoia? If they got rid of their nukes and scaled back on their military do you really think they would be safe or free from invasion nay elimination?

[Once and Future Zag]

Originally Posted by a13coach

Do you really think it is paranoia? If they got rid of their nukes and scaled back on their military do you really think they would be safe or free from invasion nay elimination?

#1 nukes aren't keeping them safe - they're just provoking other nations into making their own.

#2 their "conventional" military is so far beyond their neighbors, that yes... it can keep them safe if they solely get rid of their nukes

[Postplayer57]

Franklythe Arab world acts rather ignorant. Count back since 1948, How many times have one or more, several or all of the Arab's major players attacked Israel? Now I'm no genius, but if I had messed with someone ten or twelve times, mostly with numbers in my favor and had ended up getting my arse kicked each time, I would sooner or later learn to leave them the hell alone or reach some sort of accomodation with them. To act other wise, is just stupidity.