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Thread: Gonzaga vs Duke Post Game thoughts and analysis

  1. #26
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    Game might’ve cost Tims the POY, lots of national eyeballs even at that hour. Good chance he returns to try again. Banchero far outperforms Holmgren, but little chance Chet returns. Even with a wealth of talent, Few still refuses to develop bench beyond 6th or 7th man and it always bites him. Bolton plays with great confidence. Would like to see him run the point a bit more. Gotta say, Watty played well, should have had more PT. The game looks close on paper but it was really Duke’s to lose. Seventeen TOs are hard to overcome, so many just dumb plays like two throw aheads for no reason.

  2. #27
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    Frustrating game. Not sure who the better team was/is, but Duke played better. They had answers when we nudged ahead, and we didn't when the tide turned. Not sure if that's on coaching, depth, experience, fatigue, kismet or some combination thereof, but we didn't have what it took to make the summit, and they did.

    It wasn't about foul differential IMO. It decidedly WAS about TOs and learning to value possessions. I may have a distorted perspective but this team seems a little looser with the ball than prior years; talent will bail you out of that a lot of the time but not against the Dukes of the world.

    Agree it'll be a learning experience esp. for the younger guys and also agree the undefeated thing can be a monkey on the back which we don't have to worry about now, esp. as it's not a "bad" loss.
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    Even with Paolo going off I think we probably win if we didn’t have foul trouble and he didn’t have cramping. Unfortunately you can’t count on not being in foul trouble for future games. These refs don’t care at all who they pin fouls to, as evidenced by Drew’s 3rd. Totally meaningless call and they don’t care if they put a star in foul trouble.

    I believe any game we lose this year will have foul trouble among Chet and Timme as the common denominator. Have to be smart about pacing ourselves in that regard. Maybe Chet can’t contest every single shot in the first half. Have to let some rebounds go without going for them with a 7’4” wingspan. If there was any common sense they’d bump the foul count up to 6 so it’s actually the players deciding games and not having to sit but that doesn’t appear to be especially close to happening.

  4. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    1. Duke shoot 15-25 fould shots/ Gonzaga 7-11. Duke called for only 16 fouls during game and Gonzaga 24. That my friend is reffing. All 3 Gonzaga bigs had 4 fouls on them and each sat out significant minutes in the game.

    2. Holmgren played an outstanding 2nd half and was a huge difference for Zags in 2nd half. He ended with 16 points and 3 blocks all in the 2nd half.

    Duke didn't play much better than Gonzaga down the stretch. They made almost all their points from the foul line accept one layup off Bolton. Duke missed 3 foul shots down the stretch. BUT Gonzaga was unable to do much scoring down the stretch. THAT is true. Nmebhard missed a 4 foot bloater and the front end of a one and one, and turned the ball over on a huge mistake down the stretch. Timme missed a 3 ft floater he almost always makes. If we score those baskets we win the game.

    Go Zags!!!
    Duke got to the rim and generated those FTs. They weren’t handed out like cosmetic samples on the strip.

    Zags got beat. Plain and simple. Chet got rag-dolled at times. Team looked half a step out of league. Played careless with ball. Played with hands too much at times. Yes. Foul trouble hurt, but how may did Banchero have at half?

    I don’t like it either, but this isn’t on the refs.

  5. #30
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    A few thoughts:

    1) What a phenomenal game. Fun to watch, even with the loss. Just two really good teams with a ton of talented players trading blows.

    2) Tremendous experience for the younger guys especially. Hickman, Sallis, Holmgren, and Perry will benefit greatly from this game. Blowout wins over UCLA and Texas were impressive but a tight, physical, intense game like this with a Final 4 atmosphere is invaluable.

    3) Not a criticism of Coach Few - but IMO most coaches put guys in foul trouble on the bench for far too long. "Securing the fate you are trying to avoid" - maybe there is data to refute my point, but my perspective is that points during a game are just as valuable as those at the end, and leaving important players on the bench too long can really hurt

    4) Proud of this team - lots to learn and a ways to go, but this was always going to be the case with a young group with so many new pieces

  6. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by zagfan24 View Post
    A few thoughts:

    1) What a phenomenal game. Fun to watch, even with the loss. Just two really good teams with a ton of talented players trading blows.

    2) Tremendous experience for the younger guys especially. Hickman, Sallis, Holmgren, and Perry will benefit greatly from this game. Blowout wins over UCLA and Texas were impressive but a tight, physical, intense game like this with a Final 4 atmosphere is invaluable.

    3) Not a criticism of Coach Few - but IMO most coaches put guys in foul trouble on the bench for far too long. "Securing the fate you are trying to avoid" - maybe there is data to refute my point, but my perspective is that points during a game are just as valuable as those at the end, and leaving important players on the bench too long can really hurt

    4) Proud of this team - lots to learn and a ways to go, but this was always going to be the case with a young group with so many new pieces
    The local sports radio here in DC area made your same #3 point. They actually pointed to metrics about the chance of incurring 4th and 5th fouls compared to impact on the game that suggest leaving players provide better outcomes.


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  7. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by zagfan24 View Post
    A few thoughts:

    1) What a phenomenal game. Fun to watch, even with the loss. Just two really good teams with a ton of talented players trading blows.

    2) Tremendous experience for the younger guys especially. Hickman, Sallis, Holmgren, and Perry will benefit greatly from this game. Blowout wins over UCLA and Texas were impressive but a tight, physical, intense game like this with a Final 4 atmosphere is invaluable.

    3) Not a criticism of Coach Few - but IMO most coaches put guys in foul trouble on the bench for far too long. "Securing the fate you are trying to avoid" - maybe there is data to refute my point, but my perspective is that points during a game are just as valuable as those at the end, and leaving important players on the bench too long can really hurt

    4) Proud of this team - lots to learn and a ways to go, but this was always going to be the case with a young group with so many new pieces
    3 is a concern for me with Coach Few. Basically the only concern I have with him at this point, but he’s always been conservative with fouls. We fouled Chet out ourselves by sitting him for 10 first half minutes in a game where he finished with 3 fouls. It’s complicated because playing with fouls limits how aggressive you can be. But automatically sitting Chet until halftime (or in this case, one minute left in the half) because he got two fouls was unnecessary and we see it a lot with our guys.

    Basically, imo, even though the last 5 minutes are the most important, you want your guys on the court for as many of the 40 minutes as possible. We reduce that number pretty significantly with how we respond to fouls. Chet got his minute count up to 29 but had to play the entire 2nd half and was gassed at times (giving up that tip which led to the Duke bucket and then his inbounds turnover).

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    Quote Originally Posted by johno View Post
    We had too many stupid turnovers.
    Nuff said!!

  9. #34
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    If you watched that game without a score on the screen, most would think Duke won by 10+. GU kept it close with grit and lost it with 4 or 5 unforced errors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 72Prep View Post
    Yep. If you watched that game without a score on the screen, most would think Duke won by 10+. GU kept it close with grit and lost it with 4 or 5 unforced errors.
    Conversely, it was Duke’s to lose and their FT shooting kept Zags in a for a bit. Duke controlled entire game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Game might’ve cost Tims the POY, lots of national eyeballs even at that hour. Good chance he returns to try again. Banchero far outperforms Holmgren, but little chance Chet returns. Even with a wealth of talent, Few still refuses to develop bench beyond 6th or 7th man and it always bites him. Bolton plays with great confidence. Would like to see him run the point a bit more. Gotta say, Watty played well, should have had more PT. The game looks close on paper but it was really Duke’s to lose. Seventeen TOs are hard to overcome, so many just dumb plays like two throw aheads for no reason.
    Agreed on all accounts.
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    You all have covered the bases very thoroughly. Bottom line is we hit our FT's or make a couple of those missed 3's we win this one. That Duke D was intense.
    One of the greatest stories in basketball history...Gonzaga!

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    The attendance was staggering for a game in November. I can only surmise that the powers that be (such as Big East) are mulling scenarios that include the Zags in a coast to coast conference. You can't pin it all on Koach's Swan Song.

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    Not sure if these stats are 100% relevant to this game:

    Going back to the 16-17 season I counted 15 losses. Thats pretty amazing! However In those15 losses only once did the opposition turn the ball over more than GU. That was in the 18-19 season vs UNC. GU WAS +9 in turnover ratio wich should be a guaranteed win however UNC was 13-25 52% from 3 that's 39 points. That was 15 more pts than GU From the 3, enough to overcome the turnovers and win by 13.
    Only twice did GU shoot a higher % behind the arc and loose. 17-18 season vs SDSU, GU was at 31% the Aztec's 30%. GU scored +6 points from 3 but turned the ball over 5 more times than SDSU, loosing by 2. The 2017 NC game vs UNC was a strange game GU shot 42% from 3 (8-19) while UNC stunk it up at (4-27) 14%. Again you almost can't loose that game unless you turn the ball over 14 times and UNC only turns it over 4. -10 turn over ratio is just about a guaranteed loss.
    This was the average over the 15 losses:

    3P% ZAGS 27.6
    COMP 39.4

    TOV ZAGS 14.6
    COMP 11.0

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Conversely, it was Duke’s to lose and their FT shooting kept Zags in a for a bit. Duke controlled entire game.
    I wouldn’t say Duke controlled the entire game. We weathered their opening punch. Took a 4 point second half lead and were right there to win but had about seven bad possessions in a row. They bank in a 3 down by 4, Chet has his go in and out. We were right there and couldn’t come thru from the 7 minute mark to the 3 minute mark.

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    If I hadn’t watched the game and just read this thread I’d think that Duke beat us by 24 points in a complete beat down start to finish. But what I saw was Duke play extremely well and win by three. Wasn’t it 84-81, not 90-66 or something?

    I’d also believe that Chet was dominated start to finish, but what I actually saw was Banchero start hot and fade dramatically, but once Chet settled in he played well.

    PB had 21 points on 17 shots.
    CH had 16 points on 13 shots.

    PB had 5 rebounds.
    CH had 7 rebounds.

    PB had 0 blocks and 1 steal.
    CH had 3 blocks and 0 steals.

    PB had 2 assists.
    CH had 0 assists.

    PB played a tiny bit more.

    If I had the #1 pick I’d take PB because he has an NBA ready body and dominated the game for a six or seven minute stretch. But those stat lines, both as a team and PB vs Chet, are a lot closer than some are crediting.

    And pretending like officiating doesn’t impact close games is kind of funny to me. As a competitor you can’t blame officiating because, for the most part, it is beyond your control and it’s a waste and distraction. But as fans we can’t control anything and everything is fair game. The officiating last night was not perfect. The big issue I had was how many more fouls GU committed early in the first half even though Duke was playing extremely physical and extended defense. To my eye, the first half officiating heavily favored Duke’s extended defense while penalizing GU for icing pick and rolls and making the same or lesser contact closer to the hoop. On the one hand, teams need to adjust to the officiating, but on the other hand changing your style completely to accommodate the officiating because they aren’t consistently calling fouls brings about its own problems. It was a bit like watching a WVU game where the strategy is apparently to foul five times on every play and challenge the officiating to foul the entire team out in five minutes. And it doesn’t always balance out. Did officiating style cost GU 4 points in this game. Possibly. Hopefully that’s not what the players are focusing on though.

    What I saw:
    Nembhard played more like he did at Florida. High assists, high turnovers, inefficient shots. He needs to play more like he did last year when he shared responsibility for running the offense with Jalen.

    Hickman looks real comfortable. I’d be playing him as many minutes as possible because he is the best option outside of AN to run the offense some and take pressure off AN.

    Strawther has been a force in 6 of 7 games. He also rebounds and plays defense. We should run more of the action through him or put him in action with Timme like we did with Kispert last year.

    Bolton is a deadly shooter when he doesn’t shoot off the bounce from long range. I don’t know if there is a site that tracks it, but he has to be around 60% when not taking a dribble before shooting the three.

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    Duke 23 points off turnovers Zags 2.

  18. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagceo View Post
    Duke 23 points off turnovers Zags 2.
    Not much to overthink about this game...lol.

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    As well as Nembhard played against Texas he played equally poor against Duke. It was a very poor performance in both halves. Timme also had too many turnovers as well. Thats what cost us the game. The refs ALWAYS give Duke an advantage at the line every game. Its a given.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagceo View Post
    Duke 23 points off turnovers Zags 2.
    In a nutshell.....

    Go Zags!

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    Quote Originally Posted by NEC26 View Post
    As well as Nembhard played against Texas he played equally poor against Duke. It was a very poor performance in both halves. Timme also had too many turnovers as well. Thats what cost us the game. The refs ALWAYS give Duke an advantage at the line every game. Its a given.
    While he was far from perfect to claim it was a poor performance is not reflective of his engagement IMO….while he had some errors and missed shots one cannot claim a poor game when your point guard was SECOND leading rebounder, out rebounding your post players….had more the double assists than ANYONE Else in this game….had 4 of the teams 5 steals….
    And held keels to 2-11 shooting 6 points in his 38 minutes of play half of his season average in points

    Yes he had 6 turnovers and had some shots that did not fall but to claim he had a POOR performance is simply ignoring the rest of the game he played and contributed to in a very good college game after the first 8 minutes of play
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    The more I think about this game...the more I am encouraged. I think we win 6 out of 10 times vs them. I may be way off. But I genuinely think that is the case. Limit turnovers, hit 1-2 more threes. Less fouls. Boom.

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    Keys IMO

    For me key was at about the 11 minute mark when Chet picked up second foul….Banchero went on to score 13 points mostly against Perry….
    This dug a hole for us to dig out and expend a lot of energy that manifested in tired legs last 4 minutes of game

    Then when we had lead Chet gave up a defensive rebound for basket and then immediately had turnover on inbounds pass that led to his foul and more points

    Nembhard missed bunny

    Timme missed bunny

    For me those were key points in the game..
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  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopaholic View Post
    While he was far from perfect to claim it was a poor performance is not reflective of his engagement IMO….while he had some errors and missed shots one cannot claim a poor game when your point guard was SECOND leading rebounder, out rebounding your post players….had more the double assists than ANYONE Else in this game….had 4 of the teams 5 steals….
    And held keels to 2-11 shooting 6 points in his 38 minutes of play half of his season average in points

    Yes he had 6 turnovers and had some shots that did not fall but to claim he had a POOR performance is simply ignoring the rest of the game he played and contributed to in a very good college game after the first 8 minutes of play
    He had some really bad unforced turnovers and couldn't hit anything. 6 turnovers from the guy that leads the team is really poor no matter how you slice it. He played poorly, I would think that a little criticism is allowed here no? He had great games against Texas and UCLA and I think he is a great player but in this game he was not good. Neither was Timme especially in the first half.

    Edit: also Nembhard had 2 crucial turnovers when we had a chance to extend our lead late. They were really bad decisions that you could see coming from a mile away. Rewatch the end of that game. The leader of this team did not make the plays needed to win this game but rather gave it away.

  25. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    1. Duke shoot 15-25 fould shots/ Gonzaga 7-11. Duke called for only 16 fouls during game and Gonzaga 24. That my friend is reffing. All 3 Gonzaga bigs had 4 fouls on them and each sat out significant minutes in the game.

    2. Holmgren played an outstanding 2nd half and was a huge difference for Zags in 2nd half. He ended with 16 points and 3 blocks all in the 2nd half.

    Duke didn't play much better than Gonzaga down the stretch. They made almost all their points from the foul line accept one layup off Bolton. Duke missed 3 foul shots down the stretch. BUT Gonzaga was unable to do much scoring down the stretch. THAT is true. Nmebhard missed a 4 foot bloater and the front end of a one and one, and turned the ball over on a huge mistake down the stretch. Timme missed a 3 ft floater he almost always makes. If we score those baskets we win the game.

    Go Zags!!!
    Reborn,

    I know you are very astute but I also disagree (no disrespect intended) with you as the refs didn't cost us the game...yes we had more fouls but we also committed so damn many STUPID fouls...Watson, Timme, Chet, Straw...Nembhard...TURNOVERS killed our chances...we outshot and rebounded and had more assists...they had more steals and Timme, Chet, Nembhard didn't make a three...we missed Ft's and layups as did they but our TURNOVERS killed us...lost too many scoring opportunities away, that we needed...Duke missing as many FT's as they did in the 1st half kept us in the game...Also, their freshman played better than our freshman...they were more physical too...When Chet guarded #5 he didn't score...One more thing...The Refs did make several bad calls but mostly evident after the video of the two blocks by their "big guy" that were GOOD blocks...

    We were up by three and Watson was in the low post with great position and Nembhard passed him the ball and Watson couldn't grab it and the ball went out of bounds...Duke came down and scored cutting our lead to one and then they hit a 3 to take the lead - which we tied up...but that IMO was the turning point as their Big had three fouls and maybe Watson could have gotten a fourth...

    I hate that we lost but we truly beat ourselves...

    I believe that if we play them again, we win by double digits...

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