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Thread: Zags vs. Duke — ★Head to Head★

  1. #1
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    Default Zags vs. Duke — ★Head to Head★

    Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! I hope everyone reading this has a pleasant, food-filled day with lots of basketball & football (Go Bears, ugh). I'm eating dinner today then escaping to the solitude of a nice fireplace, a lake view and minimal technology. Doing this now for that reason, and because I'll be more concerned about my food coma than B-ball stats by tomorrow afternoon.

    The Duke Blue Devils (6-0) have arrived in Vegas to play on Friday against our Zags (6-0). Duke is rated #5 in the AP poll, #8 on KenPom (#8 offense, #20 defense), #11 on Barttorvik, and #12 on ESPN's BPI. Meanwhile, the Zags sit at an impressive #1 offense, #7 defense.

    I haven't watched more than a minute or two of Duke this season (mostly, if not all, intentionally). I'm told they have big and tall guys and that we should watch out. I heard they have a good Koach. They did beat Kentucky, #16 KPom) by 8. Otherwise, they haven't played anyone notable, and not away from the confines of home court. So, they're somewhat hard to evaluate at this point from the eyeball, but everyone knows Duke is traditionally tough, especially vs. the Zags. Hopefully their in-flight entertainment yesterday on the way to Vegas wasn't too terrifying.

    On paper, they do look worse than UCLA, by statistical rankings (KenPom, etc.), and by in-game ratings. But...a lot of the ranking systems this early account for last year's play. UCLA did well in the Tourney, and Duke didn't. So, there's a tilt against Duke at this point by the numbers, suggesting they might be better than they look. Duke may very well be floating above its statistical persona. It's all about individual matchups, and honestly I don't think we'll be winning by 20, but we do look more than competitive. Have a look at the stats, and judge for yourself:

    Basic Stats:



    Efficiency Stats:



    Seems to me there are a lot of arrows pointing to the Zag's side of those graphics. Advantage: Gonzaga. Duke has a low turnover rate though, meaning they pass well and take care of the ball. The Zags lead on 3 of the 4 "Factors for Winning Basketball," but it's close overall.

    Whether it plays out that way, we will see. Barttorvik scores it as an 82-72 win for AMERICA'S TEAM.

    Either way, I'm thankful we have a team that's performed like no one would have expected even five years ago. I remember the days of Pepperdine and LMU kicking our butts in the conference tourney, and we were all down there just for the parties, the beer, the beach sand, and didn't care about the score. We've come so far.

    Very thankful.



    credit to Teamrankings for the data.

  2. #2
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    Always love it when you post these - super helpful!

  3. #3
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    Is Dukes DUI Dandy playing or is the incident still being "investigated?"

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by zaguarxj View Post
    Is Dukes DUI Dandy playing or is the incident still being "investigated?"
    Do you think that anyone with a modicum of connections or talent, would have any punishment in the southern states? Few in, of all places, IDAHO (Mississippi on Wednesdays) gets a whiff of punishment. North Carolina (Mississippi every day) isn't going to bother with "aiding and abetting" anything. I think that episode for coach was a life turning event, and I know it'll never happen again. For the first time, I've casually noticed in recent telecasts, Few has crossed the threshold of looking a bit aged. Bancher0 didn't lose a day, and it's all apparently normal and business as usual.

    The degree between points scored and effort of investigation is inversely related. There won't be any further investigation.

  5. #5
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    The Chet Factor needs to become a statistic of its own. He changes the way offenses try to score. I don’t know how many UCLA shots clanged off back iron because they were shooting over him. Other teams just don’t even bother to shoot in the paint when they get there. Texas and UCLA basically had to wait until the second half to make the appropriate adjustments to their offenses.

    ETA: thanks for the head-to-heads. I think they’re very cool to read before these big matchups.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by zaguarxj View Post
    Is Dukes DUI Dandy playing or is the incident still being "investigated?"
    Duke has suspended one of Pacific’s players for three games in an attempt to avoid bigger sanctions against Pacific if left to the NCAA (which I feel is a stand-up thing to do)

  7. #7
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    Always enjoy when you post the H2H. Lots of stats for this one are pretty close. Glad the game is at a neutral site (although lots of Zag fans show up for our games in Vegas - so crowd may be helpful motivator). Hoping Coach K isn't able to intimidate/influence refs as much.

    Based on stats Duke's "advantage" is physical play - rebounds, steals, taking care of the ball. Hopefully we come out with intensity and focus. Don't give Duke a chance to build momentum/confidence they can muscle us.

    In past games with teams like this, we've generally been successful containing (not necessarily shutting down or over concentrating on) opponent's top scorer(s) combined with disrupting the ability of their primary ballhandler to run standard sets.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    Duke has suspended one of Pacific’s players for three games in an attempt to avoid bigger sanctions against Pacific if left to the NCAA (which I feel is a stand-up thing to do)
    But we don't play nobody.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    Duke has suspended one of Pacific’s players for three games in an attempt to avoid bigger sanctions against Pacific if left to the NCAA (which I feel is a stand-up thing to do)
    So then, UOP didn't lose any scholarships but just had ONE player suspended! Maybe Duke and Koach are as bad as we thought...

    As it stands today, UOP will still be able to field a team in WCC play!

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