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Thread: Gonzaga's record against top 3 seeds

  1. #1
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    Default Gonzaga's record against top 3 seeds

    Heard an interesting stat on the field of 68 discussion postgame.

    Since 2001, Gonzaga has faced 13 teams seeded 1-3 in the NCAA tourney.

    Record in those games is 1-12. The lone victory was against #3 seed Utah in 2016

    Any theories? Is this statistic as surprising to you as it is to me?

    Apparently if you just average out the win percentage of a team seeded 14-16 in the tourney, their win percentage against top 3 seeds is basically the same as ours has been.

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    ouch.

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    Quote Originally Posted by deathchina View Post
    Heard an interesting stat on the field of 68 discussion postgame.

    Since 2001, Gonzaga has faced 13 teams seeded 1-3 in the NCAA tourney.

    Record in those games is 1-12. The lone victory was against #3 seed Utah in 2016

    Any theories? Is this statistic as surprising to you as it is to me?

    Apparently if you just average out the win percentage of a team seeded 14-16 in the tourney, their win percentage against top 3 seeds is basically the same as ours has been.
    The theory is you run into some damn good teams in the tournament. Here's a breakdown of that 1-12 record.

    2001 12 seed vs. #1 Michigan State (eventual National Champs)
    2003 9 seed vs. #1 Arizona in 2OT
    2006 3 seed vs. #2 UCLA (eventual National Runner-Up)
    2009 4 seed vs. #1 UNC (eventual National Champs)
    2010 8 seed vs. #1 Syracuse
    2011 11 seed vs. #3 BYU (Jimmer game)
    2012 7 seed vs. #2 Ohio State
    2014 8 seed vs. #1 Arizona
    2015 2 seed vs. #1 Duke (eventual National Champs)
    2017 1 seed vs. #1 UNC (eventual National Champs)
    2019 2 seed vs. #3 Texas Tech (eventual National Runner-Up)
    2021 1 seed vs. #1 Baylor (eventual National Champs)

    Out of those 12 losses, the Zags would have been the higher seed once, and both National Champ losses were both #1 seeds. The majority of the time they were much lower seeds getting knocked out by some pretty damn good teams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by deathchina View Post
    Heard an interesting stat on the field of 68 discussion postgame.

    Since 2001, Gonzaga has faced 13 teams seeded 1-3 in the NCAA tourney.

    Record in those games is 1-12. The lone victory was against #3 seed Utah in 2016

    Any theories? Is this statistic as surprising to you as it is to me?

    Apparently if you just average out the win percentage of a team seeded 14-16 in the tourney, their win percentage against top 3 seeds is basically the same as ours has been.

    Ouch.... If you include all time against top 3 seeds, it would be 3-15. Most of those losses have come to #1 seeds though. The Zags are 0-9 all-time versus #1 seeds now. A 3-5 record versus 2 or 3 seeds.

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    Some of those teams were in the "historically great" category that GU was being compared to a couple of days ago.

    The best college teams I have ever personally watched in order of how I perceive them.

    1. Bill Walton UCLA (I know this is really dating me. I'm about the same age as Walton)
    2. Phi Slamma Jamma Houston
    3. Mitchell/Butler Baylor
    4. Lawson/Green/Hansbrough UNC
    5. Back to Back Florida

    Just my own personal take. Each one of those teams presented very unique attributes and were the best at their respective specializations. That UNC team is the only team I recall with a better transition game than this season's GU and that is why I have them so high. Obviously, from my list, the best team doesn't always win the championship. Valvano holds the record of biggest upset in my opinion because that Houston squad was unbelievably good. If not for that loss, I would have them #1. Further, it is kind of stupid to compare teams across eras because roster continuity creates better teams across the board (tougher schedule) as well as increased possibility of multi year dominance. The latest example of that was Donovan's Florida squad which must be included because of how they just shredded the competition. Blew out everyone in their path. Perhaps the least star laden team on my list and that is why they don't get the deserved recognition (still loaded with pros though).

    Baylor is the best combination of three point shooting and "on ball" defense I have ever seen. Relative to comparisons as a collective group, you can throw ball handlers in there as well. Their ultimate matchup would be against that 2008/09 UNC squad. Could they shut down THAT transition game? I think so although UNC could probably keep up on the boards much better than GU did.

    Bill Walton is the best college player I have personally watched. He wasn't nearly as dominant in the pros, but in college, the gap between him and everyone else was just huge. NBA athleticism was an "equalizer" for Walton (or perhaps relentless knee pain). Larry Bird was a different story. Ironically, NBA athleticism didn't seem to phase him at all and he upped his game considerably as a pro. Magic verse Bird was the best opposing college duo I have seen. Pete Maravich would be 1B for best college player I have watched.

    Individual players that seemed to put the entire team on their back and carry them to the promise land? Danny Manning. Carmello Anthony. Kemba Walker.

    Tough to leave 92 Duke team off my top 5. Heck, tough to leave any team full of seniors that became pros off the list. Unfair to compare senior laden teams with today's game. Really should be two categories. Pre and post (3 point shooting/One and Done) eras. Much of the Kentucky and Kansas legacy predates me, but the Wilt Chamberlin stats? Good Lord.
    Last edited by MickMick; 04-07-2021 at 05:10 AM.
    I miss Mike Hart

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    Isn't that about what you would expect for a team that has been there every year and has played more than 50 games.....but has not gone undefeated to a National Championship.....had to lose to someone.....for context is there a similar accomplishment by a non Power 5/6 team ???

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    Quote Originally Posted by bartruff1 View Post
    Isn't that about what you would expect for a team that has been there every year and has played more than 50 games.....but has not gone undefeated to a National Championship.....had to lose to someone.....for contact is there a similar accomplishment by a non Power 5/6 team ???
    Good question bart. I'd be curious to see other programs records against the top 3 seeds in the last 20 seasons. There's also something to the fact that we've had that many opportunities.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gonstu View Post
    Good question bart. I'd be curious to see other programs records against the top 3 seeds in the last 20 seasons. There's also something to the fact that we've had that many opportunities.
    There has been only one winner each year, so if they didn't win...they lost either to a higher seed or a lower seed, but they lost. Every one of them but the winner, every year.
    Are you laughing at ME?

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    Or you could look at a more relevant picture of the last four or five tournaments as prior to that isn't really contextually comparable.

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    As far as the Zags have come, there is still room to grow. That is the consultation, however little comfort it brings.

    Grow Zags!

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    Quote Originally Posted by TravelinZag View Post
    As far as the Zags have come, there is still room to grow. That is the consultation, however little comfort it brings.

    Grow Zags!
    You meant "consolation" right?

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    This article is flawed from the start. You can't look at Gonzaga 20yrs, 10yr, or really any more than about 5 years ago as the talent level is completely different now than it was even in 2016. Every year, at least three one seeds are going to lose by the end of the tournament. You also can't control who you play in the tournament when seeds get upset. It's not the teams fault that they ended up playing a 6 seed in the Elite Eight and an 11 seed in the Final Four. I honestly can say that if the tournament played to seeds, Gonzaga would have almost assuredly been 2-1 versus teams seeded one thru three.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    This article is flawed from the start. You can't look at Gonzaga 20yrs, 10yr, or really any more than about 5 years ago as the talent level is completely different now than it was even in 2016. Every year, at least three one seeds are going to lose by the end of the tournament. You also can't control who you play in the tournament when seeds get upset. It's not the teams fault that they ended up playing a 6 seed in the Elite Eight and an 11 seed in the Final Four. I honestly can say that if the tournament played to seeds, Gonzaga would have almost assuredly been 2-1 versus teams seeded one thru three.
    Great point!!

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