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Thread: Bruins vs. Zags — Head to Head (Final Four Edition)

  1. #1
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    Default Bruins vs. Zags — Head to Head (Final Four Edition)

    1 vs. 11


    What a great week it's been! The Zags are hiking to the summit, and the next obstacle in their way is the eleven-seed out of the East bracket, The University of California, Los Angeles (22-9, 13-7 conf). This is the sixth matchup between them since 1999, and some are memorable, and one quite unmemorable. Of those five games, the Zags have won three. Among the two NCAAT games, they, ahem, split one each.


    UCLA is currently ranked #15 on KenPom (#13 offense, #35 defense). Their tempo is ultra slooow (#338). Incredibly, the Zags have played three teams that play an even slower pace than UCLA: Virginia, St. Mary's, and Northern Arizona. Their resume pre-NCAA tourney is less than impressive, but they rarely got blown out. Their biggest out of conference success was a triple-OT game vs. Pepperdine, and a home win against Marquette. They lost to USC twice, UCSD, Ohio St., Wazzu, Stanford, Colorado, Oregon, and Oregon St. All but two of their losses (UCSD & USC) were by single digits, so they can definitely keep possessions low and keep the score close.



    Basic Stats and Four Factors:




    The Zags and Bruins split on the Four Factors for Winning Basketball (bottom four, left column), although offensive rebounding % is a virtual tie. For a slower pace team, they impressively score a lot of points, approaching 73 per game with an average tempo of 63.8 poss/game. That's efficient offense. They take care of the ball, with a smaller turnover rate than the Zags. The Bruins' two-point rate is unexpectedly more than the Zags (see below), and their "shooting profile," at least for style of play (ratio of 2s to 3s) is similar to the Zags, but with a much slower pace and and a significantly worse FG shooting %. The Zags' effective FG% is a full ten points above the Bruins.



    Efficiency Stats:




    It should be an interesting game. The Zags have done quite well against "slow it down" teams, having put nearly a century mark on Virginia, the slowest pace team in the nation. It's yet to be seen how much tempo will be a factor. There's a bigger discrepancy between the teams' defenses, and that may end up being a bigger factor that favors the Zags. Both teams are offensively efficient in their own way.

    Barttorvik's predictor cites an 82-69 win for the Bulldogs. Anything can happen in March, er, April though. Hoping for a result like our last game against a Southern California team.





    source: KenPom.com, TeamRankings.com, Barttorvik.com

  2. #2
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  3. #3
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    Yes, it’s a great week. Wonder what Chet Holmgren is up to?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by TravelinZag View Post
    Yes, it’s a great week. Wonder what Chet Holmgren is up to?
    State semifinals on 4/8, and then perhaps the finals on 4/10. I wonder if there will be a way to watch. They won the AA state tournament in 2017/2018/2019, and this is their first tournament at the AAA level.

  5. #5
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    Vegas line holding steady at Zags -14, a record for any FF match.


  6. #6
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    Thank you for posting, I find the stats comforting when they clearly favor Gonzaga.
    It's not the size of the Bulldog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the Bulldog!

    GO ZAGS!!!

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