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Thread: GU vs Creighton (Sweet 16) - Predictions/Thoughts/What you do hope to see

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    I must just be a man of worries. I think we could lose this game. Creighton has seniors and scorers and an athletic big to defend Drew. Zeg is a top notch combo guard, Ballock if he gets hot can outshoot Corey and Jefferson and the other guy with braids is very good too. His name is slipping my mind.

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    Drew said in the post game presser and during his post game on court interview... they treat every single one of these games as though they are the 16 seed and take zero for granted.
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    Blue Jays 79
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    Go Zags - Beat the Blue Jays!!
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    89-75 Gonzaga

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    Quote Originally Posted by zagsfanforlife View Post
    I must just be a man of worries. I think we could lose this game. Creighton has seniors and scorers and an athletic big to defend Drew. Zeg is a top notch combo guard, Ballock if he gets hot can outshoot Corey and Jefferson and the other guy with braids is very good too. His name is slipping my mind.
    Agree. Lots of worry. Every team in the S16 is capable of beating any other team on a given night. The margins between the teams are pretty close. Having said that, I agree with the talking heads who say, "only Gonzaga can beat Gonzaga." A game plan that's not working (like first 5 minutes against OU) or poor execution for any extended stretch in a game is going to be hard to come back from.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zag365 View Post
    Agree. Lots of worry. Every team in the S16 is capable of beating any other team on a given night. The margins between the teams are pretty close. Having said that, I agree with the talking heads who say, "only Gonzaga can beat Gonzaga." A game plan that's not working (like first 5 minutes against OU) or poor execution for any extended stretch in a game is going to be hard to come back from.
    Nembhard so important to our in-game and overall success, yet starting him at the 3 and Kispert at the 4 isn't our most formidable defensive lineup. And very suspectible to giving up rebounds early on, pick n rolls with bigger wings/posts vs both Kispert and Nembhard.

    Actually happened vs several WCC teams with bigger lineups when we made this switch in early February.

    Watson has been terrific off the bench, yet kinda turning the tide and saving us on pick n rolls vs bigger players and setting the tone defensively.

    I like our small ball lineup throughout yet it has hurt us to start games last few weeks or so.

    And isn't the best bet vs Creighton's scripted plays to isolate Nembhard and Kispert with their muscular forwards and thicker/stronger guards.

    I feel we should start Watson again, esp given the personnel we'll see from here on out.

    Imagine Kispert guarding one of the Mobley twins from tipoff...

    I dig the small ball style yet not to start the game when all bodies, early set plays, and rebounding so important.

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    Bluejays 72
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    By most measurables, GU is the better team and is correctly favored to win. However, once you get to this point in the bracket, there are no pushovers and an off-day will end your season. With that said, I'm reasonably confident we advance. Here's why...

    Analytics: (I put more stock in these metrics late in the season because the sample size becomes more statistically significant)
    • Kenpom: GU AdjEM is 37.1 vs Creighton 21.2. Means GU is about 16 points better than Creighton vs an "average" opponent
    • NET ratings: GU #1, Creighton #26. Zags have 8 wins against teams rated higher than Creighton
    • Quad 1&2 records: GU 15-0 Creighton 13-6
    • Defense: GU #8 AdjD vs. Creighton #31 AdjD Zags are better defensive team by 3 points per 100 possessions
    • Offense: GU #1 AdjO vs Creighton AdjO #24 Zags are better offensive team by 13 points per 100 possessions



    How GU wins:
    • GU has a normal game and plays to their season averages
    • Talent-GU has a matchup advantage in most positions with 4 All-Americans vs 1 for Creighton. If we stop their best player, we win. They have to stop all of ours to win. Which Creighton starter would you trade for one of ours? I say none.
    • Zags dictate fast tempo. Metrics suggest Jays are unlikely to win a track meet type of game. GU 4th fastest team in NCAA, Jays are 181st
    • GU size creates problems-Jay starters go 6"2" to 6"7" Zags backcourt is bigger and more physical
    • Timme time-it isn't clear what Creighton does about Timme inside. They don't have a rim protector on defense or a low post scorer. Their frosh center, Kalkbrenner is the only player with the size of drew but play just 13 mpg
    • Takeaways spark transition. Zags force more turnovers than Creighton and have been good at digging the ball out on defense
    • Zags are much better shooters making 55% of its attempts, Creighton make 47%. GU has never shot as low as 47% this season
    • Keep sharing the ball. GU #3 in assist per game. If we assist on more than 50% of made FG's we win


    How Creighton wins:
    • GU doesn't play defense as well as usual and gives up 90+ points which will be the byproduct of the next few things..
    • 3 point shooting: Jays average 9.6 made 3's per game. They have attempted the 6th most 3's in the NCAA and have the 20th most makes. Jays best chance for a win is to make a lot more 3's than the Zags. That said, Jays 3Pt FG% is good but not great #55 in NCAA (GU at #33 is actually better than theirs and people consider it one of our "weaknesses")
    • Zegarowski finds a way to dominate his matchup vs Suggs/Ayayi. He is an All-American honorable mention so you have to respect that possibility. Austin Reaves from Oklahoma was also an AA honorable mention and he had a game against us.
    • Jays rebound better than normal and limit turnovers which prevents GU getting into transition and holds GU to less than 75 points. Seems unlikely though because Jays are #204 in rebounding margin and GU is #12.
    • Jays continue recent trend of paying better defense. However, UCSB, Ohio offenses were not in the same league as GU
    • Multiple Zags players have a bad night. Some combination of Corey missing shots, Timme and Suggs foul trouble while Nembhard, Ayayi, Watson and Cook don't step up.
    • Zags don't value the ball and have an uncharacteristically bad turnover night. That said, Creighton is not great at forcing turnovers only #232 in NCAA


    Intangibles/Coaching
    • Zags coaching staff arguably better and definitely more experienced in one-and-done formats. Seeing GU for the first time is hard to prepare for. Creighton isn't particularly unique in their style of play on offense or defense so prep isn't as hard as for a team like 'Cuse, FSU or UVA
    • S16 is new for Creighton. Jays are 5-5 in the dance since McDermott took over. For GU, the S16 is "normal". GU is 19-5 in NCAA over last 5 years.
    • Is Creighton locker room healed up following McDermott's recent suspension? Nobody on these boards knows for sure.
    • Creighton has had to dig out some close games-is that good because it makes them mentally tough or a sign that they aren't that good?



    Go Zags!

    ZZ

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    Quote Originally Posted by Therunner View Post
    And isn't the best bet vs Creighton's scripted plays to isolate Nembhard and Kispert with their muscular forwards and thicker/stronger guards.
    hmmm...I don't see this.

    Looking at size comparisons for the matchups, Jays are small on the front line and no bigger than GU in the backcourt. Their best player is their smallest. I think we can defend them straight up and switch across the board.

    1 Suggs 6'4" 205 vs Ballock 6'5" 205
    2 Ayayi 6'5" 180 vs Zegarowski 6'2" 180
    3 Andrew 6'5" 193 vs Mahoney 6'5" 220
    4 Corey 6'7" 220 vs Jefferson 6'5" 220
    5 Timme 6'10" 235 vs Bishop 6'7" 220

    They will have to double Timme or try to deny the entry pass or he will have a big night. Corey is bigger than either their 3 or 4.

    ZZ

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    Love the stats but at this point who knows. I was looking at Kenpom as of the Tourney and two of his top eight are not in it already, Illinois No. 5 and Iowa No. 7 and Iowa got killed. So who know. I'm still with the Zags but the fact of the matter is the Last undefeated NCAA National Champion was Indiana in 1976 almost 45 years ago. So even thought the stats say you have to go with us Zags the chances that they go all the way are maybe 1 in 45 or so. Not such good odds. I am praying this is wrong. Go Zags.

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    Jim Meehan: Bluejays Rewind: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/20...ing-affairs-i/

    The Zags won both matchups, 103-92 in Omaha in 2018 and 91-74 in 2017 in Spokane.

    Current Creighton senior starters Mitch Ballock and Damien Jefferson both started in the 2018 contest. Junior starting point guard Marcus Zegarowski played 19 minutes off the bench and reserve junior center Jacob Epperson logged 12 minutes.

    The lone Zag holdover was Corey Kispert, who made two 3-pointers, scored eight points and played 31 minutes.

    Gonzaga racked up 62 second-half points to win an offensive shootout in front of nearly 18,759 at CHI Health Center. Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura gave GU an edge inside with 49 points and 21 rebounds and Josh Perkins handed out 13 assists.

    Zach Norvell Jr.’s 21 second-half points sparked the Zags’ rally from a seven-point halftime deficit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sheps001 View Post
    Love the stats but at this point who knows. I was looking at Kenpom as of the Tourney and two of his top eight are not in it already, Illinois No. 5 and Iowa No. 7 and Iowa got killed. So who know. I'm still with the Zags but the fact of the matter is the Last undefeated NCAA National Champion was Indiana in 1976 almost 45 years ago. So even thought the stats say you have to go with us Zags the chances that they go all the way are maybe 1 in 45 or so. Not such good odds. I am praying this is wrong. Go Zags.
    Mathematically, without any additional data used, the odds of the team going undefeated can’t be worse than one in sixteen. I don’t know the computer odds but I bet it’s closer to 25% or more that they go undefeated.


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    Default GU vs Creighton (Sweet 16) - Predictions/Thoughts/What you do hope to see

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    Mathematically, without any additional data used, the odds of the team going undefeated can’t be worse than one in sixteen. I don’t know the computer odds but I bet it’s closer to 25% or more that they go undefeated.


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    Fivethirtyeight is projecting 32%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s-predictions/


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    Good point. I guess these are more long term odds at the start of the season. 2.222 percent. The odds now are 1 in 16 or 6.25%. The realistic odds or betting odds are higher but now where near 50%. Its real real tough being an undefeated period. Basically everything has to go your way. We should enjoy our run and not let it hinge on winning the championship although it would be real nice. LOL yes it would.

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    Us 90
    Them 77

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    Quote Originally Posted by zagzilla View Post
    By most measurables, GU is the better team and is correctly favored to win. However, once you get to this point in the bracket, there are no pushovers and an off-day will end your season. With that said, I'm reasonably confident we advance. Here's why...

    Analytics: (I put more stock in these metrics late in the season because the sample size becomes more statistically significant)
    • Kenpom: GU AdjEM is 37.1 vs Creighton 21.2. Means GU is about 16 points better than Creighton vs an "average" opponent
    • NET ratings: GU #1, Creighton #26. Zags have 8 wins against teams rated higher than Creighton
    • Quad 1&2 records: GU 15-0 Creighton 13-6
    • Defense: GU #8 AdjD vs. Creighton #31 AdjD Zags are better defensive team by 3 points per 100 possessions
    • Offense: GU #1 AdjO vs Creighton AdjO #24 Zags are better offensive team by 13 points per 100 possessions



    How GU wins:
    • GU has a normal game and plays to their season averages
    • Talent-GU has a matchup advantage in most positions with 4 All-Americans vs 1 for Creighton. If we stop their best player, we win. They have to stop all of ours to win. Which Creighton starter would you trade for one of ours? I say none.
    • Zags dictate fast tempo. Metrics suggest Jays are unlikely to win a track meet type of game. GU 4th fastest team in NCAA, Jays are 181st
    • GU size creates problems-Jay starters go 6"2" to 6"7" Zags backcourt is bigger and more physical
    • Timme time-it isn't clear what Creighton does about Timme inside. They don't have a rim protector on defense or a low post scorer. Their frosh center, Kalkbrenner is the only player with the size of drew but play just 13 mpg
    • Takeaways spark transition. Zags force more turnovers than Creighton and have been good at digging the ball out on defense
    • Zags are much better shooters making 55% of its attempts, Creighton make 47%. GU has never shot as low as 47% this season
    • Keep sharing the ball. GU #3 in assist per game. If we assist on more than 50% of made FG's we win


    How Creighton wins:
    • GU doesn't play defense as well as usual and gives up 90+ points which will be the byproduct of the next few things..
    • 3 point shooting: Jays average 9.6 made 3's per game. They have attempted the 6th most 3's in the NCAA and have the 20th most makes. Jays best chance for a win is to make a lot more 3's than the Zags. That said, Jays 3Pt FG% is good but not great #55 in NCAA (GU at #33 is actually better than theirs and people consider it one of our "weaknesses")
    • Zegarowski finds a way to dominate his matchup vs Suggs/Ayayi. He is an All-American honorable mention so you have to respect that possibility. Austin Reaves from Oklahoma was also an AA honorable mention and he had a game against us.
    • Jays rebound better than normal and limit turnovers which prevents GU getting into transition and holds GU to less than 75 points. Seems unlikely though because Jays are #204 in rebounding margin and GU is #12.
    • Jays continue recent trend of paying better defense. However, UCSB, Ohio offenses were not in the same league as GU
    • Multiple Zags players have a bad night. Some combination of Corey missing shots, Timme and Suggs foul trouble while Nembhard, Ayayi, Watson and Cook don't step up.
    • Zags don't value the ball and have an uncharacteristically bad turnover night. That said, Creighton is not great at forcing turnovers only #232 in NCAA


    Intangibles/Coaching
    • Zags coaching staff arguably better and definitely more experienced in one-and-done formats. Seeing GU for the first time is hard to prepare for. Creighton isn't particularly unique in their style of play on offense or defense so prep isn't as hard as for a team like 'Cuse, FSU or UVA
    • S16 is new for Creighton. Jays are 5-5 in the dance since McDermott took over. For GU, the S16 is "normal". GU is 19-5 in NCAA over last 5 years.
    • Is Creighton locker room healed up following McDermott's recent suspension? Nobody on these boards knows for sure.
    • Creighton has had to dig out some close games-is that good because it makes them mentally tough or a sign that they aren't that good?



    Go Zags!

    ZZ
    I can see the Zags going cold from outside, but with their lack of size, I can also see another game of 70 points in the paint.
    I'm laughing. Why aren't you?

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    We got this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    Fivethirtyeight is projecting 32%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s-predictions/


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    This is another pretty cool view of the same data:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s-predictions/
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
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    Gonzaga 92
    Creighton 74

    Creighton is good. Gonzaga is better. Creighton made it to the Sweet 16. Congratulations. It's been a good year for them. It's a really good year for any team that makes it to the Sweet 16. And Creighton represented the Big East really well in this tournament. I've always liked Creighton. They ARE a lot like Gonzaga. They've had some problems this year, and maybe today they may surface again. Gonzaga will dominate this game, imo. IMO, Creighton will have a very difficult time guarded the Zags. Our attacking offense will destroy them.

    Go Zags!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    ZAGS 91-74

    Early in the quarantine my wife and i put together a 1000 piece panoramic puzzle of a game
    at McCarthey Athletic Center. It was the December 1, 2017, Gonzaga vs Creighton contest.
    Final score was Zags 91, Creighton 74. I'm sticking with that score. Tillie is dunking the
    ball at 6:36 in the second half, giving the Zags a 10 point lead. Go deja vu! I mean Go Zags!

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPW314159 View Post
    ZAGS 91-74

    Early in the quarantine my wife and i put together a 1000 piece panoramic puzzle of a game
    at McCarthey Athletic Center. It was the December 1, 2017, Gonzaga vs Creighton contest.
    Final score was Zags 91, Creighton 74. I'm sticking with that score. Tillie is dunking the
    ball at 6:36 in the second half, giving the Zags a 10 point lead. Go deja vu! I mean Go Zags!
    Great post
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  22. #72

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    Go Zags ! Beat the Bluejays !
    GU - 92 CU - 80

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    Quote Originally Posted by zagzilla View Post
    By most measurables, GU is the better team and is correctly favored to win. However, once you get to this point in the bracket, there are no pushovers and an off-day will end your season. With that said, I'm reasonably confident we advance. Here's why...

    Analytics: (I put more stock in these metrics late in the season because the sample size becomes more statistically significant)
    • Kenpom: GU AdjEM is 37.1 vs Creighton 21.2. Means GU is about 16 points better than Creighton vs an "average" opponent
    • NET ratings: GU #1, Creighton #26. Zags have 8 wins against teams rated higher than Creighton
    • Quad 1&2 records: GU 15-0 Creighton 13-6
    • Defense: GU #8 AdjD vs. Creighton #31 AdjD Zags are better defensive team by 3 points per 100 possessions
    • Offense: GU #1 AdjO vs Creighton AdjO #24 Zags are better offensive team by 13 points per 100 possessions



    How GU wins:
    • GU has a normal game and plays to their season averages
    • Talent-GU has a matchup advantage in most positions with 4 All-Americans vs 1 for Creighton. If we stop their best player, we win. They have to stop all of ours to win. Which Creighton starter would you trade for one of ours? I say none.
    • Zags dictate fast tempo. Metrics suggest Jays are unlikely to win a track meet type of game. GU 4th fastest team in NCAA, Jays are 181st
    • GU size creates problems-Jay starters go 6"2" to 6"7" Zags backcourt is bigger and more physical
    • Timme time-it isn't clear what Creighton does about Timme inside. They don't have a rim protector on defense or a low post scorer. Their frosh center, Kalkbrenner is the only player with the size of drew but play just 13 mpg
    • Takeaways spark transition. Zags force more turnovers than Creighton and have been good at digging the ball out on defense
    • Zags are much better shooters making 55% of its attempts, Creighton make 47%. GU has never shot as low as 47% this season
    • Keep sharing the ball. GU #3 in assist per game. If we assist on more than 50% of made FG's we win


    How Creighton wins:
    • GU doesn't play defense as well as usual and gives up 90+ points which will be the byproduct of the next few things..
    • 3 point shooting: Jays average 9.6 made 3's per game. They have attempted the 6th most 3's in the NCAA and have the 20th most makes. Jays best chance for a win is to make a lot more 3's than the Zags. That said, Jays 3Pt FG% is good but not great #55 in NCAA (GU at #33 is actually better than theirs and people consider it one of our "weaknesses")
    • Zegarowski finds a way to dominate his matchup vs Suggs/Ayayi. He is an All-American honorable mention so you have to respect that possibility. Austin Reaves from Oklahoma was also an AA honorable mention and he had a game against us.
    • Jays rebound better than normal and limit turnovers which prevents GU getting into transition and holds GU to less than 75 points. Seems unlikely though because Jays are #204 in rebounding margin and GU is #12.
    • Jays continue recent trend of paying better defense. However, UCSB, Ohio offenses were not in the same league as GU
    • Multiple Zags players have a bad night. Some combination of Corey missing shots, Timme and Suggs foul trouble while Nembhard, Ayayi, Watson and Cook don't step up.
    • Zags don't value the ball and have an uncharacteristically bad turnover night. That said, Creighton is not great at forcing turnovers only #232 in NCAA


    Intangibles/Coaching
    • Zags coaching staff arguably better and definitely more experienced in one-and-done formats. Seeing GU for the first time is hard to prepare for. Creighton isn't particularly unique in their style of play on offense or defense so prep isn't as hard as for a team like 'Cuse, FSU or UVA
    • S16 is new for Creighton. Jays are 5-5 in the dance since McDermott took over. For GU, the S16 is "normal". GU is 19-5 in NCAA over last 5 years.
    • Is Creighton locker room healed up following McDermott's recent suspension? Nobody on these boards knows for sure.
    • Creighton has had to dig out some close games-is that good because it makes them mentally tough or a sign that they aren't that good?



    Go Zags!

    ZZ


    Extremely well done.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    To quote Mark Pope after BYU's first game against this squad "You can prepare for that team but you don't how good they are until you feel them." Let's give Creighton all the feels.

    Zags 83
    Bluejays 65
    Quote Originally Posted by Coach Few
    We are not here as a #%$&%&! Courtesy!!!

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    hope Zags own their d glass, the rest can flow from there imo, 6 point spurts here, 8 points there, etc.

    Go Zags

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