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Thread: Winning the opening tip

  1. #1
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    Default Winning the opening tip

    This has been a frequent topic here, so I thought I'd look it up. We have won only 5 opening tips this year in 19 games, against Northwestern St, Northern Arizona, Dixie St, USF, Portland. Winning the tip is worth, on average, half a possession more for the team who gets it, and half a possession less for the team who loses it, for a net of one extra possession per game, on average.

    Per KenPom's calculations, in a game of 70 possessions, 1 extra possession gives you an additional 3.5% chance of winning. This is a really interesting article on how this plays out:

    https://kenpom.com/blog/the-value-of-ben-gillery/

  2. #2
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    Yet the Zags seem unbothered by it.

  3. #3
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    IMO, es macht nichts.

  4. #4
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    I’m surprised it’s 5 I would have guessed 2

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasZagFan View Post
    IMO, es macht nichts.
    I hope not. I hope we don't lose a game by one possession.

  6. #6
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    Didn't Johnathan Williams III get the larger majority of the opening tips during his senior season in 2918?

  7. #7

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    The zags seem to care none about it. If they did they would have Watson or Suggs jump it up. You cant tell me either of these dudes wouldnt jump higher or quicker than Drew.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scrooner View Post
    I hope not. I hope we don't lose a game by one possession.
    I have yet to hear of a game decided by an opening tip.

  9. #9
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    In theory it only matters if there is an odd number of jump ball possessions, if none we get the ball in the second half so a moot point.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasZagFan View Post
    I have yet to hear of a game decided by an opening tip.
    Of course not - it wouldn't fit the narrative of late game points being worth more than early game points. If you lose a game by one point and you have a guy miss two free throws in the first 2 minutes, you wouldn't say that the game was decided by those free throws, even though it's technically correct.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrooner View Post
    Of course not - it wouldn't fit the narrative of late game points being worth more than early game points. If you lose a game by one point and you have a guy miss two free throws in the first 2 minutes, you wouldn't say that the game was decided by those free throws, even though it's technically correct.
    Sorry scrooner, just messing with you.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by daskim View Post
    Didn't Johnathan Williams III get the larger majority of the opening tips during his senior season in 2918?
    I think he only lost 1 or 2.

  13. #13
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    Winning the tip hasn't worked out too well for GU's opponents this year.
    My posts indicate that I don't seem to follow college basketball all that closely.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BayAreaZagFan View Post
    Winning the tip hasn't worked out too well for GU's opponents this year.
    Neither has playing us, ha ha!

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by daskim View Post
    Didn't Johnathan Williams III get the larger majority of the opening tips during his senior season in 2918?
    - yes!
    - i have nothing to support this but i recall he won tip after tip after tip, i think we played 38 games that year. i believe we won 30 or more tips.

  16. #16
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    It would be interesting to see Ayayi take a tip. His length would give him a decent chance.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

    ________________________________



    Foo Time

  17. #17
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    He won it tonight!!!

  18. #18
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    You may remember that the 2017 team had a crazy long streak of leading in games, though I can't recall how long it was. It spanned multiple games. It would be really hard to pull that off without regularly grabbing the first possession.

  19. #19
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    if chet chooses us,
    we are going to get a lot of tips.
    Back to 16-17 I can't remember if Zach Collins ever jumped for the opening tip, cuz he usually started games on the bench, but there is little doubt in my mind he would get his share of tips for us.

  20. #20
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    I looked at the play-by-plays for 2016-17 through the WCC tournament, and a few of the games are missing, but of the 29 games that are there we won 26 of the tips.

  21. #21
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    There appears to be a 100% correlation between the Zags winning and there being a tip-off.


  22. #22
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    Opening tips won are marked in bold. Before this thread (21%):

    Kansas
    Auburn
    West Virginia
    Iowa
    Northwestern State
    Northwestern State
    Virginia
    Northern Arizona
    Dixie State
    San Francisco
    BYU
    Portland
    Pepperdine
    Saint Mary's
    Pacific
    San Diego
    Pepperdine
    Pacific
    BYU

    Since this thread (100%)

    USF
    SMC
    USD


    Hmmmmm......

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrooner View Post
    Opening tips won are marked in bold. Before this thread (21%):

    Kansas
    Auburn
    West Virginia
    Iowa
    Northwestern State
    Northwestern State
    Virginia
    Northern Arizona
    Dixie State
    San Francisco
    BYU
    Portland
    Pepperdine
    Saint Mary's
    Pacific
    San Diego
    Pepperdine
    Pacific
    BYU

    Since this thread (100%)

    USF
    SMC
    USD


    Hmmmmm......
    It's obvious. This thread is the only difference
    Are you laughing at ME?

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    It's obvious. This thread is the only difference
    I wouldn't be surprised if Drew's mom said something to her son about this. Megan has been known to frequent this Board.

  25. #25
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