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Thread: Washington Post Article. Gonzaga has a good chance to go undefeated and win it all.

  1. #1
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    Default Washington Post Article. Gonzaga has a good chance to go undefeated and win it all.

    Scares me and excites me at the same time, ha! Obviously this team is getting some ridiculous national attention right now, for good reason. Gotta love it and thought I'd share..

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...defeated-odds/

  2. #2
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    Behind a paywall for me.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by tummydoc View Post
    Behind a paywall for me.
    Interesting, sorry about that... works for me and i don't have a subscription. Maybe you get so many free looks a month?

  4. #4
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    I have a subscription so I'll cheat a little bit here:

    By
    Neil Greenberg
    Jan. 14, 2021 at 6:07 a.m. PST
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    The Gonzaga men’s basketball program is on a collision course with history. The Bulldogs opened the season with convincing wins over No. 6 Kansas and Auburn, beating both teams by double digits. The Zags scored 87 points in a win over No. 11 West Virginia. Then, after a 17-day lull between games due to the team’s covid-19 issues, Gonzaga blew out No. 3 Iowa 99-88, giving the school three neutral-site victories over Top 11 teams. To put that in context, over the past decade only nine other teams have three or more victories against Top 11 teams on a neutral site over the course of a season. Gonzaga needed just four games to join the group.

    Now the Bulldogs are on a 12-game winning streak with a chance to become the first team to go undefeated during the regular season since Kentucky in 2014-15. Only two other programs, 1990-91 UNLV and 2013-14 Wichita State, remained undefeated heading into the NCAA tournament over the past 40 years. Gonzaga has a strong chance to be the fourth.

    Ken Pomeroy has Gonzaga favored in all of their remaining games during the regular season with their worst chance of victory (85 percent) occurring when the Bulldogs travel to St. Mary’s to take on the Gaels. There are only two other games on the schedule, against St. Mary’s and BYU on the road, that give Gonzaga less than a 90 percent chance at walking off the court with a win. In all, the Bulldogs have a 52 percent of finishing undefeated. None of the other undefeated teams — Baylor, Michigan, Drake or Winthrop — has greater than a 19 percent chance at going undefeated in 2020-21.

    It’s been 45 years since a team went undefeated in the regular season and won a national championship but Gonzaga is looking like it will at least be one of the favorites and perhaps earn the overall No. 1 seed in this year’s tournament. Of the 39 ranking methods audited by Kenneth Massey, 23 have Gonzaga rated as the No. 1 team in the country. That includes the AP poll plus popular predictive rankings released by Pomeroy and Sagarin. Eleven of the other 16 methods have the Bulldogs ranked No. 2 in the nation, behind either Baylor or Michigan.



    It’s easy to see why the Bulldogs are so highly regarded. Gonzaga has a savvy head coach in Mark Few and he’s able to put three high-quality players — Drew Timme, Corey Kispert and Jalen Suggs — on the court at the same time. Kispert averages a team-high 21.1 points per game and is shooting 61 percent from the field. Timme averages 18.5 points per game and Suggs contributes 13.8 points per contest. Joel Ayayi (11.8 points and a team-best 8.1 rebounds per game) and Andrew Nembhard (10.0 points and 3.1 rebounds per game) round out a starting roster that scores 123.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for strength of schedule, the best efficiency rate in the nation. And that’s despite ranking 163rd in the country for three-point shooting.

    Impressively, Gonzaga has shown an ability to take opposing teams out of their comfort zone. Kansas has two NBA prospects on the roster — Ochai Agbaji and Jalen Wilson — and Gonzaga’s defense held them to 33 points combined, five points fewer than Suggs had on his own that night. West Virginia and Virginia, whom the Zags beat Dec. 26, like to play at a slow pace and grind you down defensively yet the Bulldogs managed 88 and 75 possessions, respectively, against those two squads. Both higher than West Virginia and Virginia’s average tempos for this season. Iowa has one of the most-efficient offenses in the country (105.5 points per 100 possessions) and Gonzaga held the Hawkeyes to 88 points on 98 possessions (89.7 points per 100 possessions).

    That same versatility should serve them well in the tournament. Based on the information provided by the Bracket Matrix, which compiles data from 53 different bracketologists, we have a good sense of which teams are likely to make the field-of-68 in March. Using the seedings from that consensus bracket we can simulate the outcome by estimating the number of possessions for each team and, using the team’s adjusted offensive rating found at Ken Pomeroy’s site, project a scoring margin for each matchup.



    Once we know the projected scoring margin, we can infer an implied win percentage. For instance, teams that are favored by two points would have an expected win probability of 57 percent. That rises to 77 percent if the predicted scoring margin is seven points. Tally up the wins and losses in a tournament simulated 1,000 times and we know how likely it is Gonzaga, or any team, is to become the national champions.

    By this method, Gonzaga has a 21 percent chance at cutting down the nets in Indianapolis. That’s in line with the plus-350 money line (wager $100 to win $350, implies a 22 percent win probability) being offered by oddsmakers for a future bet on the team. Kentucky, by comparison, was plus-100 on the money line at the start of 2015 when they were 13-0, which implies a 50-50 chance to win it all at that point of the season. Villanova is the second choice to win this year’s national championship at plus-700 on the money line, or 7-1 odds.

    Simply put, this is the most likely chance we’ve had to see an undefeated team since 2014-15.

  5. #5
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    Gonzaga scored 98 points against UVa with only 75 possessions? 1.3 points per possession. That is crazy.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

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    Ecclesiastes 9:11...." .....but time and chance happen to them all...."

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    Doomed

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    Anything can happen. I do think it happens myself but I was also sure that 14-15 Kentucky team would do it also. They didn’t even make the championship game

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    "Kansas has two NBA prospects on the roster — Ochai Agbaji and Jalen Wilson — and Gonzaga’s defense held them to 33 points combined, five points fewer than Suggs had on his own that night."

    Agbaji 17
    Wilson 11
    Suggs 24

    What kind of crazy math is that?

  10. #10
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    I always get nervous when a team has shot to go undefeated. I worry they will get tight in a big game. It is super early for me anyway. It is fun to talk about but i could them follow the 2017 steps.
    Love the zags for life

  11. #11
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    Strangely, over the last two decades it seems to me that I've read more fantastic Zag breakdowns from the WapPo than the Seattle-Int
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    I remember 2014-'15 Kentucky winning the SEC tournament, then running off the floor before cutting the nets or receiving the trophy. Lost to Wisconsin in the Final Four, who lost to Duke in the title game.
    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    Go Zags!!!

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