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Thread: Winning it all in 20-21

  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    Here's an article on the Value of a Statistical Live (VSL)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...vid-19-crisis/

    The argument against playing will be "Is playing a game worth risking someone's life." If keeping people employed is not worth risking lives, I don't see how playing games will be allowed.
    Understand the thought process but are they really "risking someone's life", I think that is debatable although I'm not going to open that can of worms myself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    Understand the thought process but are they really "risking someone's life", I think that is debatable although I'm not going to open that can of worms myself.
    It is a can of worms. It doesn't matter how it is, only how it is perceived. People are really scared so no debate.
    We are on this earth to live, not to avoid death.

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    Phases of FDA drug development. Just an FYI. The vaccines are receiving expedited reviews. It seems our friends in Europe are racing ahead of us. There is no FDA in Europe. Drug regulation is far more lax there than in the US. Keeps us safer. Anyway I thought this might be useful. Usually it takes 3-5 years from approval. When yo consider COVID is only 5 months old (that we know of), the fact is that we're already in testing is a major advancement.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases...nical_research

  4. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    It is a can of worms. It doesn't matter how it is, only how it is perceived. People are really scared so no debate.
    Exactly why there is debate is that you say there isn't. I personally don't know anyone that is scared pf the virus or think's they are risking their lives. That doesn't mean some don't think that way nor does it mean that they (as well as myself) aren't following mask guidelines/social distancing recommendations.

    I'm just saying it is debatable as to what the risk is for each person. What are the odds of a player in that age group becoming seriously ill or passing away from the virus? What are the odds of a player in that age group becoming seriously ill or passing away from something else? What are the odds of passing away in an auto accident in that age group? I don't know these numbers, but I do know the risk is very low in that age group.

    We are also months away from the start of practice and the season so there is time for things to change in regards to treatments, etc.

  5. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Phases of FDA drug development. Just an FYI. The vaccines are receiving expedited reviews. It seems our friends in Europe are racing ahead of us. There is no FDA in Europe. Drug regulation is far more lax there than in the US. Keeps us safer. Anyway I thought this might be useful. Usually it takes 3-5 years from approval. When yo consider COVID is only 5 months old (that we know of), the fact is that we're already in testing is a major advancement.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phases...nical_research
    Thanks Abe!!

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    One thing to consider, just from a money standpoint - if the NCAA isn't able to pull off a season for this, which means no tournament, which in turn means no TV money for the second consecutive year, you're going to start to see programs/conferences really in a world of hurt.
    I will thank God for the day and the moment I have. - Jimmy V

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    The 'meat' of the 6/22 email to season ticket holders .....

    Should restrictions exist that result in anything from fewer games to a cancelled season, Gonzaga Athletics will have the following options available regarding your season ticket payment and any required contributions:
    Payments can be turned into a tax deductible donation to the men’s basketball program
    Receive a refund for impacted games
    Keeping you apprised of information related to season tickets and fan attendance for the upcoming season is a priority, and we will continue to provide updates throughout the summer with the next communication coming no later than mid-July.
    It'd sure be sweet if C19 never raised its ugly spiked orb ..... But, it has.

    We're all impacted by C19 in a few negative manners (the ultimate negative manner for 130K and counting). How well we handle it all will have a big impact on what we are as a nation afterwards. With testing and PPE issues still plaguing responses my personal optimism is quite low for the conduction of a 20-21 team activity like college basketball that contains both a high degree of physical contact and lots of travel. I'm very unimpressed with how we've handled C19 as a nation thus far. Until there is an effective vaccine I don't see how anything resembling a normal GU BB season can occur for 20-21. The C19 testing we are managing to do is turning up over 50K cases per day. The more of us who have it the more it is spread. Doing the math is depressing. The overall situation is shaping into one where things are going to get a lot worse before they begin to improve. Buckle up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    Exactly why there is debate is that you say there isn't. I personally don't know anyone that is scared pf the virus or think's they are risking their lives. That doesn't mean some don't think that way nor does it mean that they (as well as myself) aren't following mask guidelines/social distancing recommendations.

    I'm just saying it is debatable as to what the risk is for each person. What are the odds of a player in that age group becoming seriously ill or passing away from the virus? What are the odds of a player in that age group becoming seriously ill or passing away from something else? What are the odds of passing away in an auto accident in that age group? I don't know these numbers, but I do know the risk is very low in that age group.

    We are also months away from the start of practice and the season so there is time for things to change in regards to treatments, etc.
    In Arizona, the age 20-44 group has seen 45,816 positive cases and 103 deaths (as of today, 7/3/2020 at 8:40am). This is a death rate of 0.2%- 2 per 1000 persons. There have been 8 deaths of persons under 20. One might ask, is a 22 year old basketball player closer to the 44 yo with hypertension and diabetes or the 18 year old with no health issues?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    In Arizona, the age 20-44 group has seen 45,816 positive cases and 103 deaths (as of today, 7/3/2020 at 8:40am). This is a death rate of 0.2%- 2 per 1000 persons. There have been 8 deaths of persons under 20. One might ask, is a 22 year old basketball player closer to the 44 yo with hypertension and diabetes or the 18 year old with no health issues?
    There is an expectation that they will be in some sort of contact with older people; coaches, instructors, service staff, etc. That interaction is of significant concern. That is what is going to shut schools down.

    My daughter is starting at Tennessee this fall. We are watching slowly but surely more and more classes going from in person to online as more faculty express concerns. At some point, the infection is going to spread. Faculty and staff do not want to be the interface of that spread and bear the brunt.


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  10. #35
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    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0962-9

    I posted the above article from Nature elsewhere but it suggests that younger persons (in this case, persons under age 20) are close to 50% less likely to contract the virus. Persons involved in athletic departments can generally use PPE like the rest of us who have been working with the public the entire time during the pandemic, and those who don’t want to risk it can opt out.

    The biggest concern would be the 65 year old coach who is in close, daily contact with players who are breathing hard and creating all sorts of respiratory droplets. A coach could wear an N95 mask (not a cloth or surgical mask, which I would not put my trust in in this setting) and take extra precautions to socially distance, but he would still be putting himself at risk. I’m supposing assistants will be doing more of the hands-on things in practice while the head coach who is worried about the health risks does things from afar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    There is an expectation that they will be in some sort of contact with older people; coaches, instructors, service staff, etc. That interaction is of significant concern. That is what is going to shut schools down.

    My daughter is starting at Tennessee this fall. We are watching slowly but surely more and more classes going from in person to online as more faculty express concerns. At some point, the infection is going to spread. Faculty and staff do not want to be the interface of that spread and bear the brunt.


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    I agree with you on this in large measure, but not completely. I surely hope that persons in this 20-44 group are protecting their loved ones. This is the potential weak link, in my opinion.

    I work in health care and am inches away from every patient I see. I wear a surgical or cloth mask with little confidence that it helps much because of concerns about filtration and fit around the face (for inquiring minds, put some flour in your mask, simulate a cough, and watch the powder leak out of the sides of the mask). The risks to a teacher would be less than the person working at Home Depot, considering that the teacher is seeing a younger demographic that is less likely to be sick. The teacher could even teach from behind a plastic screen if this made them more comfortable (although I think it would be very easy to lecture from greater than 6 ft away). I don’t have that luxury, and many others don’t who put themselves at risk every day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    I agree with you on this in large measure, but not completely. I surely hope that persons in this 20-44 group are protecting their loved ones. This is the potential weak link, in my opinion.

    I work in health care and am inches away from every patient I see. I wear a surgical or cloth mask with little confidence that it helps much because of concerns about filtration and fit around the face (for inquiring minds, put some flour in your mask, simulate a cough, and watch the powder leak out of the sides of the mask). The risks to a teacher would be less than the person working at Home Depot, considering that the teacher is seeing a younger demographic that is less likely to be sick. The teacher could even teach from behind a plastic screen if this made them more comfortable (although I think it would be very easy to lecture from greater than 6 ft away). I don’t have that luxury, and many others don’t who put themselves at risk every day.
    Wearing a mask will not necessarily protect you, it protects your patients. It reduces the spread of virus laden droplets that you might emit if you are unknowingly infected. They do offer the wearer some protection against those same droplets as well, but the goal is to reduce transmission to others.

    The goal of wearing masks is to reduce the spread of the virus via droplets exhaled by infected people. They do that and they do that well enough in this case to reduce transmission substantially. It is the least invasive method we have now of reducing transmission and still having some social and economic activity.


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    I agree with the principles behind mask. There are some nuances that I would like to tease out but I think it would be a distraction.

    Cloth and surgical masks are better than nothing, especially when we don’t have too many other options. We have to do something to try to slow the spread of the disease. I think they work best for brief contacts, such as passing by someone in a grocery store. If I was a coach around players who cannot wear a mask while playing, I would be much more confident in an N95, which lets less stuff through. Anecdotally, I was unable to get a good seal with a mask in the past and had to opt out of being around tuberculosis patients back in the day, which is an illustration of why fit around the face is important, even if the filter is good.

    I am mostly curious what is unreasonable about thinking that a college professor could protect himself/herself more than the average essential worker. A coach can run practices differently, which wouldn’t be ideal, obviously, but which would place extra distance between him/her and the players. The locker room would be tricky, but there could be a delay to allow everyone to put on a mask.

    Im just trying to think of ways that this thing might actually work.

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    JP. I am with you. I think the answer is to get the country as a whole solidly into Phase 3; 14 days of declining transmission, no evidence of rebound, and persistent low positive test rate (CDC recommends below 5%).

    We do that and there is a lot more room for decision making and people are more confident with working on site.

    These are the very guidelines the President proposed.


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    I hadn’t seen the following discussed anywhere. Per Meehan:

    “GU AD Roth on new federal guidelines forcing international students to leave country if schools only offer online courses: "Definitely concerned. It’s causing lot of panic and concern among international students, student-athletes and our coaches, and 4 plenty of ADs out there."

    And:

    “That is still the plan (Gonzaga holding in-person classes this fall). As long as that part doesn’t change it doesn't affect us at all." Roth has advised coaches to "tell your kids not to panic here."

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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    I hadn’t seen the following discussed anywhere. Per Meehan:

    “GU AD Roth on new federal guidelines forcing international students to leave country if schools only offer online courses: "Definitely concerned. It’s causing lot of panic and concern among international students, student-athletes and our coaches, and 4 plenty of ADs out there."

    And:

    “That is still the plan (Gonzaga holding in-person classes this fall). As long as that part doesn’t change it doesn't affect us at all." Roth has advised coaches to "tell your kids not to panic here."
    The thought just came to me...how about using tutors? They would be in person and socially distanced, for all the classes on campus.
    It's not funny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    The thought just came to me...how about using tutors? They would be in person and socially distanced, for all the classes on campus.
    I’m not sure I follow. Would you mind explaining further?

  18. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    I’m not sure I follow. Would you mind explaining further?
    Perhaps a little more germane, don’t they get a credit for playing basketball so that would count as an in person course?
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
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  19. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    I’m not sure I follow. Would you mind explaining further?
    Maybe tutor is the wrong word.

    The Zags will have three sophomores this year- Martynas, Pavel and Omar, and three juniors- Ayayi, Petrusev and Nembhardt.

    I don't know the structure of Gonzaga's courses, but when I went to school, there were requirements, especially for the frosh and sophs of specific course required to advance toward a degree.

    If a graduate assistant met with them, as a class of three, three times a week, to discuss the course work, provide help as needed, it would be sufficient to meet the requirement of NOT being an online course only. They could meet in a small(ish) classroom, masks on and social distancing, to hold the class.

    It would need to be structured to advance the educational goals of each, especially Ayayi, as a redshirt junior-actually working on his senior curriculum, and Petro/Nembhardt.

    It's just an idea to try to avoid the political position of not being online classes only.
    It's not funny.

  20. #45
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    Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying. Seems reasonable to me.

    It seems like the problem was created by a well-intended rule with this unintended consequence that was meant to close a loophole for student Visas that might require and executive order to address.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    I hadn’t seen the following discussed anywhere. Per Meehan:

    “GU AD Roth on new federal guidelines forcing international students to leave country if schools only offer online courses: "Definitely concerned. It’s causing lot of panic and concern among international students, student-athletes and our coaches, and 4 plenty of ADs out there."

    And:

    “That is still the plan (Gonzaga holding in-person classes this fall). As long as that part doesn’t change it doesn't affect us at all." Roth has advised coaches to "tell your kids not to panic here."
    The genesis behind this is likely political having to largely do with Chinese Nationals. Once you have all international students leave the country, you have control over which students you allow back. It looks like this move is in conjunction with our separation from China due to their policies and practices (see Tik Tok).

    This also forces colleges to offer a in-person classes so they can't do what colleges like Harvard are planning (See Harvard Online Classes ) offering all classes online without changing tuition costs as international students represent a large amount of income for colleges. This would allow states to stay locked down (no school) while not impacting the college's income. Opening schools is a primary platform for republican reelection.

    Again, it's all politics.
    We are on this earth to live, not to avoid death.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    The genesis behind this is likely political having to largely do with Chinese Nationals. Once you have all international students leave the country, you have control over which students you allow back. It looks like this move is in conjunction with our separation from China due to their policies and practices (see Tik Tok).

    This also forces colleges to offer a in-person classes so they can't do what colleges like Harvard are planning (See Harvard Online Classes ) offering all classes online without changing tuition costs as international students represent a large amount of income for colleges. This would allow states to stay locked down (no school) while not impacting the college's income. Opening schools is a primary platform for republican reelection.

    Again, it's all politics.
    It will work it’s way out. It’s a play to get schools to open this fall.


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  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    The genesis behind this is likely political having to largely do with Chinese Nationals. Once you have all international students leave the country, you have control over which students you allow back. It looks like this move is in conjunction with our separation from China due to their policies and practices (see Tik Tok).

    This also forces colleges to offer a in-person classes so they can't do what colleges like Harvard are planning (See Harvard Online Classes ) offering all classes online without changing tuition costs as international students represent a large amount of income for colleges. This would allow states to stay locked down (no school) while not impacting the college's income. Opening schools is a primary platform for republican reelection.

    Again, it's all politics.
    For what it is worth, Harvard is modifying its tuition costs based on the type of instruction (in person and online). https://college.harvard.edu/financial-aid/covid-19-faqs
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
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  24. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    For what it is worth, Harvard is modifying its tuition costs based on the type of instruction (in person and online). https://college.harvard.edu/financial-aid/covid-19-faqs
    Didn't see this yet, thanks for posting. They aren't modifying their tuition costs; It's an accounting trick. They show room, board, and travel that are eliminated with online classes as a "savings" to the student without changing the tuition price.
    We are on this earth to live, not to avoid death.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    It will work it’s way out. It’s a play to get schools to open this fall.


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    Strategery(?)

    Persons coming in and overstaying visas has been a concern of some for a while. My understanding is that there was a loophole that allowed some to get an education visa for an online school (and therefore had no reason to be in the country).

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