How confident are you in having a ‘20-‘21 season

[tinfoilzag]

Look up the Supremacy clause.

The Sheriff is the highest law enforcement official in a county enforcing certain codified crimes. When it comes to enforcing federal law, federal enforcement takes priority of the sheriff's power.

Generally you are right in that the States generally care for the common welfare of the citizens.

But the Sheriff doesn't enforce FAA regulations at the airport, doesn't enforce immigration laws with respect to illegal immigration, doesn't enforce complex interstate crime under federal law done by the FBI, doesn't get in the way of the ATF, nor enforce DEA violations, or criminal pollution overseen by the EPA. If there was a declaration of a federal emergency, all law enforcement would be called upon to enforce federal law. The sheriff would serve alongside and co-equal to federal law enforcement.

Federal law only takes precedence when it is specifically enumerated.

I agree that they would be called upon to enforce federal law for a "temporary" period in the event of a disaster. In a "normal" disaster, they would help. But this is not a hurricane or earthquake and this is not something where resources contribute to ending the disaster. Actually stopping activity and not working closely with community members is what helps. This event does not share characteristics with other disasters.

What happens when "temporary" is defined in years? Not getting in the way of federal agencies is very different than working for and with federal agencies (ask California). You're going to ask local law enforcement to enforce federal mandates at the same time you tell them to stand down during riots? Your going to say arrest people for unauthorized behavior while you work to defund their departments?

There was a chance to stop this early but once elected officials realized the death count would be in the .5% range instead of the 5% range and that they and their families would be safe, they saw it as a political opportunity and acted accordingly. This fact is recognized by a part of the US population and now they won't work with mandates as they see it in bad faith.

For a lot of Americans, the risk of COVID is not severe enough to give up their livelihoods and liberty and this will be reflected in state and local law enforcement as they serve the local communities and not the feds. This may make some feel like these people don't care about others but the fact is that people work in their own self-interest, including politicians.

[zagamatic]

If you have one of those conditions you mention and catch COVID-19 your likelihood of dying while having COVID-19 increases dramatically. These are people that would be alive without COVID-19 and then die when they have it.

I understand your point, but these people did NOT HAVE COVID19. And yet they are being counted as deaths from the virus.

[MDABE80]

Ooh, ohh, me, me. I can answer this one. Not everyone in a hospital deals with infectious disease. In fact, during normal times, a very, very small percentage do. Now that hospitals are getting OVERWHELMED with sick patients that have COVID-19, the busy people are the internists and ID (infectious dz) specialists, the ER docs, geriatricians, and the intensivists. Everybody else (surgeons, endocrinologists, psychiatrists, primary care, and so on) has virtually nothing to do or patients to see. And it's mainly because this virus is so dangerous that everybody else is staying the hell home, even if they have some other illness that might necessitate hospitalization.

Couple that with the fact that governments are halting non-urgent procedures because when the hospitals are so full with patients that they're practically falling out the windows, you have no room or resources or PPD to deal with the botox people. (I jest, because there are plenty of patients that need important procedures that are "non-urgent" aka elective. But if you don't have gowns and gloves or sanitizer or treatment rooms or available nurses or N95 masks or recovery rooms because they are filled with patients on ventilators, or anesthesiologists because they are too busy intubating patients in respiratory failure....welllllll). I didn't mention the loading docks filled with refrigerated trucks when they bring out the dead. Happened in NY, and probably will elsewhere.

When it's all hands on deck, you don't worry about what's going on in the galley (I know you're Army, not Navy, but I knew you'd get it).

Only is some places Cad. Cedars Sinai is far from full........Sacred Heart in Spokane reduced us to elective procedures anticipating a huge rush of COVID afflictions. As you probably know Sacred Heart is the biggest in the State. They held us off from operating and semi surgical procedures were deemed elective. Trouble is, the overwhelming rush of COVID never happened. I don't know how things are where you are...but the media reports are oversold in many places. As it sits now, there are those areas like TX ( not the majority in TX either).....FL, etc. that are getting huge volumes of COVID types......I do believe it's a minority in the US though.

As with the graphs I posted yesterday, death rates are down but infections are up. Hard to square those two but maybe the infections will end up in hospital..

Anyway, best wishes. I do not think we will ever stop this without the standard precautions. In Spokane, there are 1.2 million people in a 60 mile radius of the downtown area. We had precations taken and the numbers were low for both death and new cases. Philadelphia Macaroni had an explosion of cases ( young folks working without distancing or masks) and then the bars opened without requiring masks and distancing plus no hand washing) and that group had and large outburst of cases. All this indicates that we still need the usual precautions or we're asking for trouble....Again , best wishes...your contributions here and on this topic are mighty!!!

[kitzbuel]

I understand your point, but these people did NOT HAVE COVID19. And yet they are being counted as deaths from the virus.

Can you point me to that?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[caduceus]

Thanks to you and bum for your response. But what about New York, where the hospital ship was sent home due to lack of patients? Was it mismanagement, misplaced priorities?

The ship wasn't used because it was sent with the stipulation that it would take non-COVID patients only. Huge mistake. While the brick and mortar hospitals were being overrun with COVID-19, a lot of NYers that needed other care stayed home (and probably many died at home -- news reports indicate that, but we probably won't know all the data for months).

[caduceus]

Only is some places Cad. Cedars Sinai is far from full........Sacred Heart in Spokane reduced us to elective procedures anticipating a huge rush of COVID afflictions. As you probably know Sacred Heart is the biggest in the State.

Yes, but. Cedars Sinai has shut down a ton of stuff. Ask any surgeon. Many clinical trials are halted that are not COVID related. I know that personally. These hospitals don't live in bubbles, and have people coming from other states and locales to get care, to manage trials, among many other hospital operations. Many biotech and pharm trials are at a standstill. Outpatient clinics everywhere are running on skeletal staff. I don't know about Prov/SH, but I have my concerns about Eastern Washington. Yakima is getting hammered. I've gotten reports that Leavenworth is chock full of maskless people, shoulder to shoulder on the weekends (with a lot coming from all over, particularly King County). Spokane has been largely spared, but that could change. I hope not.

As with the graphs I posted yesterday, death rates are down but infections are up. Hard to square those two but maybe the infections will end up in hospital..

I suspect it's more "younger than elderly" populations getting infected. Early demographic data seems to indicate that trend, but I haven't looked at it in depth too much. Problem is, when you get so many highly mobile people turning positive, eventually the virus gets to more vulnerable people. We're seeing double-digit outbreaks from single events (like the bar in Michigan yesterday, and house parties all over the place).

Anyway, best wishes. I do not think we will ever stop this without the standard precautions. In Spokane, there are 1.2 million people in a 60 mile radius of the downtown area. We had precations taken and the numbers were low for both death and new cases. Philadelphia Macaroni had an explosion of cases ( young folks working without distancing or masks) and then the bars opened without requiring masks and distancing plus no hand washing) and that group had and large outburst of cases. All this indicates that we still need the usual precautions or we're asking for trouble....Again , best wishes...your contributions here and on this topic are mighty!!!

Yep. It ain't over by a longshot. I'm encouraged by the mask mandate in WA. It's clear that it needs to be everywhere though. If we can just get R_e below one and halt spread, we might be able to get a handle on individual outbreaks. Everyone needs to do their part, even if it's not collecting aluminum or rubber in a war effort.

[DZ]

Federal law only takes precedence when it is specifically enumerated.

I agree that they would be called upon to enforce federal law for a "temporary" period in the event of a disaster. In a "normal" disaster, they would help. But this is not a hurricane or earthquake and this is not something where resources contribute to ending the disaster. Actually stopping activity and not working closely with community members is what helps. This event does not share characteristics with other disasters.

What happens when "temporary" is defined in years? Not getting in the way of federal agencies is very different than working for and with federal agencies (ask California). You're going to ask local law enforcement to enforce federal mandates at the same time you tell them to stand down during riots? Your going to say arrest people for unauthorized behavior while you work to defund their departments?

There was a chance to stop this early but once elected officials realized the death count would be in the .5% range instead of the 5% range and that they and their families would be safe, they saw it as a political opportunity and acted accordingly. This fact is recognized by a part of the US population and now they won't work with mandates as they see it in bad faith.

For a lot of Americans, the risk of COVID is not severe enough to give up their livelihoods and liberty and this will be reflected in state and local law enforcement as they serve the local communities and not the feds. This may make some feel like these people don't care about others but the fact is that people work in their own self-interest, including politicians.

You continue to come at the from a purely selfish and self-interested view. I don't understand it.

Your theory about "wanting to control people" is paranoid delusions born of myths found in certain isolated groups that have been terrified of this very thing since Clinton was president.

Who said a thing about riots? Destruction of property or hurting people is against the law and should be enforced. Many law enforcement hurt people needlessly (I have copies of the video if you need, starting in Lafayette park), but violent riots are entirely different than peaceful demonstrations, of which the vast majority were and shouldn't have been broken up. Most wore masks.

I love your argument about asking local law enforcement to enforce federal mandates. That's exactly what the Right is asking for in knuckling under sanctuary cities. All sanctuary cities or states mean is that local law enforcement is not going to help with immigration and not turn over witnesses to ICE (they will turn over criminals, always have). A sanctuary city has nothing to do with federal officials coming in and enforcing immigration law. It only means locals won't help. It is the flipside of what you're asking for with COVID.

You keep talking about you, your freedoms, citing .5% mortality (I'd like to see a link, I haven't seen that as correct) but even at .5% YOU have decided YOU want to carry on with YOUR life, without factoring in that there is enough virus out there to stuff hospital ICUs full, ask TX, AZ, FLA. So YOU and your decision leads you and others to get sick and put more pressure on the healthcare system, putting my family at risk of dying bc I have family working in intensive cares.

Again, your self-obsession with your liberty is impacting other people's safety by potentially using up resources, ventilators, staffing, etc. whether it is .5% (it's higher) or .1%, there is enough out there to overwhelm the healthcare system and risk having people die in parking lots bc you were demanding your freedom.

As for economic pain, that's real and understandable. Rather than $2 trillion going to corporate America (do you support that socialism?), more money should have gone to hourly and salaried workers, as it did in other countries to reduce the pain of being at home.

The self-obsession ignores the pain that is inflicted on others while one person demands their outright freedom. It is a balance whereby we try to accommodate as many interests as possible making reasonable decisions.

But, the assertion that pols want to control lives sounds like Alex Jones level conspiracy theory that I can assure you is delusional. I spend a lot of time inside the political bubble with a lot of pols, none want control of your life. They do want a more equitable society. None other than Adam Smith said that for capitalism to work it would take heavy regulation. We have socialism for the wealthiest corps, it is time to shift it over to where it can trickle up.

IMO.

If we do not get rid of the virus (which will take everyone sacrificing together) the economy will not come back.

[MDABE80]

Yes, but. Cedars Sinai has shut down a ton of stuff. Ask any surgeon. Many clinical trials are halted that are not COVID related. I know that personally. These hospitals don't live in bubbles, and have people coming from other states and locales to get care, to manage trials, among many other hospital operations. Many biotech and pharm trials are at a standstill. Outpatient clinics everywhere are running on skeletal staff. I don't know about Prov/SH, but I have my concerns about Eastern Washington. Yakima is getting hammered. I've gotten reports that Leavenworth is chock full of maskless people, shoulder to shoulder on the weekends (with a lot coming from all over, particularly King County). Spokane has been largely spared, but that could change. I hope not.



I suspect it's more "younger than elderly" populations getting infected. Early demographic data seems to indicate that trend, but I haven't looked at it in depth too much. Problem is, when you get so many highly mobile people turning positive, eventually the virus gets to more vulnerable people. We're seeing double-digit outbreaks from single events (like the bar in Michigan yesterday, and house parties all over the place).



Yep. It ain't over by a longshot. I'm encouraged by the mask mandate in WA. It's clear that it needs to be everywhere though. If we can just get R_e below one and halt spread, we might be able to get a handle on individual outbreaks. Everyone needs to do their part, even if it's not collecting aluminum or rubber in a war effort.

Deaths are 75% less than peak. Now is the time we really need masks and distancing. I’d close the bars where the so called invincibles spread the disease. We can beat this thing. I know we can. Tony says 250 million doses of vaccine by mid to late December. I hope so!!

[DZ]

Deaths are 75% less than peak. Now is the time we really need masks and distancing. I’d close the bars where the so called invincibles spread the disease. We can beat this thing. I know we can. Tony says 250 million doses of vaccine by mid to late December. I hope so!!

You keep saying that Fauci has said mid-December and huge doses.

I haven't read this anywhere.

You demanded that I provide links and background to my points, I did. (You said you'd reconsider, your position if I did but haven't answered.)

We asked for the AOC tweet, you never posted it.

I have posted a quote from researchers at Duke and USC saying no possible way do we have distribution prior to the end of the year, if you have a link to that from "Tony" then can you please share it, because no one else has seen that and we'd all like to think it's possible … but don't think there's a chance bc we've not read it.

[DZ]

Deaths are 75% less than peak. Now is the time we really need masks and distancing. I’d close the bars where the so called invincibles spread the disease. We can beat this thing. I know we can. Tony says 250 million doses of vaccine by mid to late December. I hope so!!

He hasn't said that.

Never mind, I found the real answer:

This is from six days ago (same answer he gave 2 months ago, link here:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the U.S. told a House committee on Tuesday he is “cautiously optimistic” a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus will be ready by the end of this year, but it could be early 2021 before the vaccine is available.
“It will be when and not if” Fauci said about the vaccine, according to the Associated Press.

Fauci’s statement came during a meeting with the House Energy and Commerce Committee in which he testified alongside the heads of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and a top official at the Department of Health and Human Services.

This fits precisely what I posted from the Duke team. The science may be ready by the end of the year, but ramping up to scale isn't a reasonable expectation until into next year.

It is wishful thinking to believe that we'll have anything approaching normal before spring-summer of next year, and we need to stick with reality bc wishful thinking is what has kept us last in the world.

[RenoZag]

After reading through this thread, I voted for the "zero chance" option in the poll.

Thanks for the observations, analysis, and links.

Have a good week.

[LTownZag]

I understand your point, but these people did NOT HAVE COVID19. And yet they are being counted as deaths from the virus.

How many of “these people” (absolute numbers or as a percent of the current ~130k) do you contend did not have COVID at time of death?

Make your claim explicit or its mood lighting, not a hypothesis.

[caduceus]

Thanks to you and bum for your response. But what about New York, where the hospital ship was sent home due to lack of patients? Was it mismanagement, misplaced priorities?

I've had a little bit of experience in how to keep things running when the SHTF, and the Army taught me you're a dead man if you just stand around and do nothing. You may be a dead man if you're moving around, too, you just have a better chance at survival. There's little doubt in my mind that the sheer enormity of the situation stalled the decision makers.

The economic effects of this pandemic will be felt for years to come. O/T, I'm pulling my copy of Atlas Shrugged out of my bookcase. Say what you will about Ayn Rand, but she was great at outlining eventual consequences to what were seemingly minor events.

I spent a good couple of years working in GU's ROTC office in the AD building (a secret few know). A captain and a major I had to answer to. I very much know I earned their respect, even with my unregulated haircut, and I at least have a minor sense of how things work. End of the year, they came to my Desmet dorm room to THANK ME FOR MY SERVICE. I was in tears. If you're pulling out that book in these times of trouble (I read it too), I can't help you. You don't kill the border collie in the name of the sheep, Babe. We need to collectively work together to defeat this problem. Ayn Rand's notions are precisely the opposite.

[3zagda]

Is Spokane one of Washington's new hotspots? This from KXLY today: Spokane County sees highest 24-hour rise with 79 new COVID-19 cases.

https://www.kxly.com/spokane-county-sees-highest-24-hour-increase-with-79-new-covid-19-cases/

"During a visit last week, Governor Jay Inslee said Spokane County is on the verge of a dire situation if people do not begin to take precautions to stop the spread of the virus."
This does not bode well for having a "normal" fall semester.

[MDABE80]

1. Dixie....I forgot. Not watching the board much. Too busy.
2. KXLY data is "exciting". lol People don't wear masks, don't observe distancing. etc and then go to bars where NO precautions are taken by staff OR when Philadephia Macaroni.......doesn't either but pumps out 57 people with positive test.is a reason.

And then comes the spread from those same people. It's hopeless without people being sensing. Masks, distance, washing hands. It's a simple remedy.

DO IT!