View Poll Results: How likely is a normal (or nearly normal) year.

Voters
98. You may not vote on this poll
  • 75-100% likelihood of almost full season

    15 15.31%
  • 50-75% likely

    20 20.41%
  • 25-50% likely

    22 22.45%
  • 1-25% likely

    23 23.47%
  • 0% chance of normal. No real season even w/o fans

    18 18.37%
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Thread: How confident are you in having a ‘20-‘21 season

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Only is some places Cad. Cedars Sinai is far from full........Sacred Heart in Spokane reduced us to elective procedures anticipating a huge rush of COVID afflictions. As you probably know Sacred Heart is the biggest in the State.
    Yes, but. Cedars Sinai has shut down a ton of stuff. Ask any surgeon. Many clinical trials are halted that are not COVID related. I know that personally. These hospitals don't live in bubbles, and have people coming from other states and locales to get care, to manage trials, among many other hospital operations. Many biotech and pharm trials are at a standstill. Outpatient clinics everywhere are running on skeletal staff. I don't know about Prov/SH, but I have my concerns about Eastern Washington. Yakima is getting hammered. I've gotten reports that Leavenworth is chock full of maskless people, shoulder to shoulder on the weekends (with a lot coming from all over, particularly King County). Spokane has been largely spared, but that could change. I hope not.

    As with the graphs I posted yesterday, death rates are down but infections are up. Hard to square those two but maybe the infections will end up in hospital..
    I suspect it's more "younger than elderly" populations getting infected. Early demographic data seems to indicate that trend, but I haven't looked at it in depth too much. Problem is, when you get so many highly mobile people turning positive, eventually the virus gets to more vulnerable people. We're seeing double-digit outbreaks from single events (like the bar in Michigan yesterday, and house parties all over the place).

    Anyway, best wishes. I do not think we will ever stop this without the standard precautions. In Spokane, there are 1.2 million people in a 60 mile radius of the downtown area. We had precations taken and the numbers were low for both death and new cases. Philadelphia Macaroni had an explosion of cases ( young folks working without distancing or masks) and then the bars opened without requiring masks and distancing plus no hand washing) and that group had and large outburst of cases. All this indicates that we still need the usual precautions or we're asking for trouble....Again , best wishes...your contributions here and on this topic are mighty!!!
    Yep. It ain't over by a longshot. I'm encouraged by the mask mandate in WA. It's clear that it needs to be everywhere though. If we can just get Re below one and halt spread, we might be able to get a handle on individual outbreaks. Everyone needs to do their part, even if it's not collecting aluminum or rubber in a war effort.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    Federal law only takes precedence when it is specifically enumerated.

    I agree that they would be called upon to enforce federal law for a "temporary" period in the event of a disaster. In a "normal" disaster, they would help. But this is not a hurricane or earthquake and this is not something where resources contribute to ending the disaster. Actually stopping activity and not working closely with community members is what helps. This event does not share characteristics with other disasters.

    What happens when "temporary" is defined in years? Not getting in the way of federal agencies is very different than working for and with federal agencies (ask California). You're going to ask local law enforcement to enforce federal mandates at the same time you tell them to stand down during riots? Your going to say arrest people for unauthorized behavior while you work to defund their departments?

    There was a chance to stop this early but once elected officials realized the death count would be in the .5% range instead of the 5% range and that they and their families would be safe, they saw it as a political opportunity and acted accordingly. This fact is recognized by a part of the US population and now they won't work with mandates as they see it in bad faith.

    For a lot of Americans, the risk of COVID is not severe enough to give up their livelihoods and liberty and this will be reflected in state and local law enforcement as they serve the local communities and not the feds. This may make some feel like these people don't care about others but the fact is that people work in their own self-interest, including politicians.
    You continue to come at the from a purely selfish and self-interested view. I don't understand it.

    Your theory about "wanting to control people" is paranoid delusions born of myths found in certain isolated groups that have been terrified of this very thing since Clinton was president.

    Who said a thing about riots? Destruction of property or hurting people is against the law and should be enforced. Many law enforcement hurt people needlessly (I have copies of the video if you need, starting in Lafayette park), but violent riots are entirely different than peaceful demonstrations, of which the vast majority were and shouldn't have been broken up. Most wore masks.

    I love your argument about asking local law enforcement to enforce federal mandates. That's exactly what the Right is asking for in knuckling under sanctuary cities. All sanctuary cities or states mean is that local law enforcement is not going to help with immigration and not turn over witnesses to ICE (they will turn over criminals, always have). A sanctuary city has nothing to do with federal officials coming in and enforcing immigration law. It only means locals won't help. It is the flipside of what you're asking for with COVID.

    You keep talking about you, your freedoms, citing .5% mortality (I'd like to see a link, I haven't seen that as correct) but even at .5% YOU have decided YOU want to carry on with YOUR life, without factoring in that there is enough virus out there to stuff hospital ICUs full, ask TX, AZ, FLA. So YOU and your decision leads you and others to get sick and put more pressure on the healthcare system, putting my family at risk of dying bc I have family working in intensive cares.

    Again, your self-obsession with your liberty is impacting other people's safety by potentially using up resources, ventilators, staffing, etc. whether it is .5% (it's higher) or .1%, there is enough out there to overwhelm the healthcare system and risk having people die in parking lots bc you were demanding your freedom.

    As for economic pain, that's real and understandable. Rather than $2 trillion going to corporate America (do you support that socialism?), more money should have gone to hourly and salaried workers, as it did in other countries to reduce the pain of being at home.

    The self-obsession ignores the pain that is inflicted on others while one person demands their outright freedom. It is a balance whereby we try to accommodate as many interests as possible making reasonable decisions.

    But, the assertion that pols want to control lives sounds like Alex Jones level conspiracy theory that I can assure you is delusional. I spend a lot of time inside the political bubble with a lot of pols, none want control of your life. They do want a more equitable society. None other than Adam Smith said that for capitalism to work it would take heavy regulation. We have socialism for the wealthiest corps, it is time to shift it over to where it can trickle up.

    IMO.

    If we do not get rid of the virus (which will take everyone sacrificing together) the economy will not come back.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by caduceus View Post
    Yes, but. Cedars Sinai has shut down a ton of stuff. Ask any surgeon. Many clinical trials are halted that are not COVID related. I know that personally. These hospitals don't live in bubbles, and have people coming from other states and locales to get care, to manage trials, among many other hospital operations. Many biotech and pharm trials are at a standstill. Outpatient clinics everywhere are running on skeletal staff. I don't know about Prov/SH, but I have my concerns about Eastern Washington. Yakima is getting hammered. I've gotten reports that Leavenworth is chock full of maskless people, shoulder to shoulder on the weekends (with a lot coming from all over, particularly King County). Spokane has been largely spared, but that could change. I hope not.



    I suspect it's more "younger than elderly" populations getting infected. Early demographic data seems to indicate that trend, but I haven't looked at it in depth too much. Problem is, when you get so many highly mobile people turning positive, eventually the virus gets to more vulnerable people. We're seeing double-digit outbreaks from single events (like the bar in Michigan yesterday, and house parties all over the place).



    Yep. It ain't over by a longshot. I'm encouraged by the mask mandate in WA. It's clear that it needs to be everywhere though. If we can just get Re below one and halt spread, we might be able to get a handle on individual outbreaks. Everyone needs to do their part, even if it's not collecting aluminum or rubber in a war effort.
    Deaths are 75% less than peak. Now is the time we really need masks and distancing. I’d close the bars where the so called invincibles spread the disease. We can beat this thing. I know we can. Tony says 250 million doses of vaccine by mid to late December. I hope so!!

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Deaths are 75% less than peak. Now is the time we really need masks and distancing. I’d close the bars where the so called invincibles spread the disease. We can beat this thing. I know we can. Tony says 250 million doses of vaccine by mid to late December. I hope so!!
    You keep saying that Fauci has said mid-December and huge doses.

    I haven't read this anywhere.

    You demanded that I provide links and background to my points, I did. (You said you'd reconsider, your position if I did but haven't answered.)

    We asked for the AOC tweet, you never posted it.

    I have posted a quote from researchers at Duke and USC saying no possible way do we have distribution prior to the end of the year, if you have a link to that from "Tony" then can you please share it, because no one else has seen that and we'd all like to think it's possible … but don't think there's a chance bc we've not read it.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Deaths are 75% less than peak. Now is the time we really need masks and distancing. I’d close the bars where the so called invincibles spread the disease. We can beat this thing. I know we can. Tony says 250 million doses of vaccine by mid to late December. I hope so!!
    He hasn't said that.

    Never mind, I found the real answer:

    This is from six days ago (same answer he gave 2 months ago, link here:

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the U.S. told a House committee on Tuesday he is “cautiously optimistic” a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus will be ready by the end of this year, but it could be early 2021 before the vaccine is available.
    “It will be when and not if” Fauci said about the vaccine
    , according to the Associated Press.

    Fauci’s statement came during a meeting with the House Energy and Commerce Committee in which he testified alongside the heads of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and a top official at the Department of Health and Human Services.
    This fits precisely what I posted from the Duke team. The science may be ready by the end of the year, but ramping up to scale isn't a reasonable expectation until into next year.

    It is wishful thinking to believe that we'll have anything approaching normal before spring-summer of next year, and we need to stick with reality bc wishful thinking is what has kept us last in the world.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  6. #56
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    After reading through this thread, I voted for the "zero chance" option in the poll.

    Thanks for the observations, analysis, and links.

    Have a good week.

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by zagamatic View Post
    I understand your point, but these people did NOT HAVE COVID19. And yet they are being counted as deaths from the virus.
    How many of “these people” (absolute numbers or as a percent of the current ~130k) do you contend did not have COVID at time of death?

    Make your claim explicit or its mood lighting, not a hypothesis.

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasZagFan View Post
    Thanks to you and bum for your response. But what about New York, where the hospital ship was sent home due to lack of patients? Was it mismanagement, misplaced priorities?

    I've had a little bit of experience in how to keep things running when the SHTF, and the Army taught me you're a dead man if you just stand around and do nothing. You may be a dead man if you're moving around, too, you just have a better chance at survival. There's little doubt in my mind that the sheer enormity of the situation stalled the decision makers.

    The economic effects of this pandemic will be felt for years to come. O/T, I'm pulling my copy of Atlas Shrugged out of my bookcase. Say what you will about Ayn Rand, but she was great at outlining eventual consequences to what were seemingly minor events.
    I spent a good couple of years working in GU's ROTC office in the AD building (a secret few know). A captain and a major I had to answer to. I very much know I earned their respect, even with my unregulated haircut, and I at least have a minor sense of how things work. End of the year, they came to my Desmet dorm room to THANK ME FOR MY SERVICE. I was in tears. If you're pulling out that book in these times of trouble (I read it too), I can't help you. You don't kill the border collie in the name of the sheep, Babe. We need to collectively work together to defeat this problem. Ayn Rand's notions are precisely the opposite.

    Last edited by caduceus; 06-29-2020 at 09:57 AM.

  9. #59
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    Is Spokane one of Washington's new hotspots? This from KXLY today: Spokane County sees highest 24-hour rise with 79 new COVID-19 cases.
    https://www.kxly.com/spokane-county-...ovid-19-cases/
    "During a visit last week, Governor Jay Inslee said Spokane County is on the verge of a dire situation if people do not begin to take precautions to stop the spread of the virus."
    This does not bode well for having a "normal" fall semester.

  10. #60
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    1. Dixie....I forgot. Not watching the board much. Too busy.
    2. KXLY data is "exciting". lol People don't wear masks, don't observe distancing. etc and then go to bars where NO precautions are taken by staff OR when Philadephia Macaroni.......doesn't either but pumps out 57 people with positive test.is a reason.

    And then comes the spread from those same people. It's hopeless without people being sensing. Masks, distance, washing hands. It's a simple remedy.

    DO IT!

  11. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    1. Dixie....I forgot. Not watching the board much. Too busy.
    2. KXLY data is "exciting". lol People don't wear masks, don't observe distancing. etc and then go to bars where NO precautions are taken by staff OR when Philadephia Macaroni.......doesn't either but pumps out 57 people with positive test.is a reason.

    And then comes the spread from those same people. It's hopeless without people being sensing. Masks, distance, washing hands. It's a simple remedy.

    DO IT!
    You didn't forget. You can't post the tweet because it literally doesn't exist. It's wild how you can't admit that you're wrong. Being a doctor, I would assume you should be very accepting to being wrong as it could literally save lives. However, after reading your posts the last three months, I'm not so sure you are capable of such a thing.

  12. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bouldin4Prez View Post
    You didn't forget. You can't post the tweet because it literally doesn't exist. It's wild how you can't admit that you're wrong. Being a doctor, I would assume you should be very accepting to being wrong as it could literally save lives. However, after reading your posts the last three months, I'm not so sure you are capable of such a thing.
    He could have also named the charity for the $30 donation I promised if he simply did the honest and upright thing, the kind of thing we’d all hope our kids learn to do in kindergarten.

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bouldin4Prez View Post
    You didn't forget. You can't post the tweet because it literally doesn't exist. It's wild how you can't admit that you're wrong. Being a doctor, I would assume you should be very accepting to being wrong as it could literally save lives. However, after reading your posts the last three months, I'm not so sure you are capable of such a thing.
    Here goes Bouldin...fact checked by Reuters. The quotes from Reuters are in quotes. Somebody used her name to quote what you're seeing below. As for you other comments. screw you. Everything I've posted was true and correct at the time it was posted. You don't like my style? Screw you again. You always have the option to block/ignore my comments. If you're ignorant of the science, screw you again. Have a nice day Like you matter??

    The posts purport that Ocasio-Cortez deleted a tweet from May 20, 2020 which said, “It’s vital that Governors maintain restrictions on businesses until after the November Elections because economic recovery will help Trump be re-elected. A few business closures or job losses is a small price to pay to be free from his presidency. #KeepUsClosed"


    Fact checked by Reuters.." And again, I've wasted time on a know nothing.

  14. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Here goes Bouldin...fact checked by Reuters. The quotes from Reuters are in quotes. Somebody used her name to quote what you're seeing below. As for you other comments. screw you. Everything I've posted was true and correct at the time it was posted. You don't like my style? Screw you again. You always have the option to block/ignore my comments. If you're ignorant of the science, screw you again. Have a nice day Like you matter??

    The posts purport that Ocasio-Cortez deleted a tweet from May 20, 2020 which said, “It’s vital that Governors maintain restrictions on businesses until after the November Elections because economic recovery will help Trump be re-elected. A few business closures or job losses is a small price to pay to be free from his presidency. #KeepUsClosed"


    Fact checked by Reuters.." And again, I've wasted time on a know nothing.
    Link?!


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  15. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Here goes Bouldin...fact checked by Reuters. The quotes from Reuters are in quotes. Somebody used her name to quote what you're seeing below. As for you other comments. screw you. Everything I've posted was true and correct at the time it was posted. You don't like my style? Screw you again. You always have the option to block/ignore my comments. If you're ignorant of the science, screw you again. Have a nice day Like you matter??

    The posts purport that Ocasio-Cortez deleted a tweet from May 20, 2020 which said, “It’s vital that Governors maintain restrictions on businesses until after the November Elections because economic recovery will help Trump be re-elected. A few business closures or job losses is a small price to pay to be free from his presidency. #KeepUsClosed"


    Fact checked by Reuters.." And again, I've wasted time on a know nothing.
    These articles took me maybe 30 seconds to find? The fact that you just doubled down on this is alarming. Take a deep breath and go for a walk, safely distanced from other people of course.


    https://apnews.com/afs:Content:9035601885

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ao...-closed-tweet/

    https://factcheck.thedispatch.com/p/...anting-to-keep

  16. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Here goes Bouldin...fact checked by Reuters. The quotes from Reuters are in quotes. Somebody used her name to quote what you're seeing below. As for you other comments. screw you. Everything I've posted was true and correct at the time it was posted. You don't like my style? Screw you again. You always have the option to block/ignore my comments. If you're ignorant of the science, screw you again. Have a nice day Like you matter??

    The posts purport that Ocasio-Cortez deleted a tweet from May 20, 2020 which said, “It’s vital that Governors maintain restrictions on businesses until after the November Elections because economic recovery will help Trump be re-elected. A few business closures or job losses is a small price to pay to be free from his presidency. #KeepUsClosed"


    Fact checked by Reuters.." And again, I've wasted time on a know nothing.
    Actual Reuters fact check says the tweet never happened:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN23V32A
    Agent provocateur

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bouldin4Prez View Post
    These articles took me maybe 30 seconds to find? The fact that you just doubled down on this is alarming. Take a deep breath and go for a walk, safely distanced from other people of course.


    https://apnews.com/afs:Content:9035601885

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ao...-closed-tweet/

    https://factcheck.thedispatch.com/p/...anting-to-keep
    I don't need your quotes. I posted the quote you said I didn't have and wasn't there. Grow up dude. I have a job, I don't need a walk. Im doing well. You, should apologize top me. NOW.

  18. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    Actual Reuters fact check says the tweet never happened:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN23V32A
    It was withdrawn because it was a made up quote. I read it. Likewise it was shared with 20000 others. It appeared but (you might be missing the point) it was posted and that it was posted is beyond dispute. BUT IT WAS SOMEBODY ELSE who did the dirty deed. That's all it was. So it was taken down. No hard feelings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    I don't need your quotes. I posted the quote you said I didn't have and wasn't there. Grow up dude. I have a job, I don't need a walk. Im doing well. You, should apologize top me. NOW.
    I'm so impressed by the mental gymnastics you were able to just pull off that I will apologize to you. I'm sorry for attacking your credibility/ability to reason Abe, carry on with your day. Wish you well.

  20. #70
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    lol Accepted Bouldin..we're mostly friends here. It's always a problem understanding what's in another person's head. My Aunt Margaret in Hillyard was teaching do running the library out there always told me you must be crystal clear when you write things...other people's experience in life may not be yours so people inpute ideas when the guy being criticized had very innocent meanings. Thus, this is where we find ourselves on this board.at least sometimes. No worries.
    We soldier on in life.
    Best wishes.
    Abe

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Everything I've posted was true and correct at the time it was posted. You don't like my style? Screw you again. You always have the option to block/ignore my comments. If you're ignorant of the science, screw you again.
    It has been almost scary to see how many and how varied your untrue / incorrect claims have been. Many errors on things unrelated to pure politics or ideology. A few from recent weeks:

    - you claimed the average annual deaths from flu were higher than the all-time highest death year from flu. (Average is ~36,000, not 60-80,000)

    - you claimed Spokane has the highest “patient flow” of any place in the 13 western states. (It doesn’t. )

    - you claimed Sacred Heart is WA’s largest hospital (Swedish has more beds, staff, procedures, and income)

    - you claimed Germany’s population skews younger than Italy’s (it doesn’t)

    - you claimed Germany had the lowest covid death rate, with the USA second (they aren’t close to that)

    - you claimed Germany’s disease outcome was due to the foresight of its unusually early border closures (those closed concurrent or after many other EU nations)

    - you claimed 27,000 people live on every city block of Manhattan, but that number is every square kilometer, which is each composed of 64 city blocks.

    - you claimed this was a minor variant of the flu

    - you claimed 25-50% of official covid deaths were people who never had covid (not merely those who went untested)

    - you claimed Ocasio-Cortes wrote some crazy conspiracy fodder tweet, then repeated the lie 2 more times while insulting those who asked for evidence

    - you claimed Fauci says we’ll have hundred million plus vaccines out by mid December (he didn’t)

    - you claimed Brix said half of all positive test results are false positives (she didn't, they aren’t)

    - you claim you’ve never made a false claim. ( you have made a few)
    Last edited by LTownZag; 06-29-2020 at 09:28 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    It has been almost scary to see how many and how varied your untrue / incorrect claims have been. A few from recent weeks:

    - you claimed the average annual deaths from flu were higher than the all-time highest death year from flu.

    - you claimed Spokane has the highest “patient flow” of any place in the 15 western states. It doesn’t.

    - you claimed Sacred Heart is WA’s largest hospital (Swedish has more beds, staff, procedures, and income)

    - you claimed Germany’s population skews younger than Italy’s (it doesn’t)

    - you claimed Germany had the lowest covid death rate, with the USA second (they aren’t)

    - you claimed Germany’s disease outcome was due to the foresight of its unusually early border closures (those were after many other EU nations)

    - you claimed 27,000 people live on every city block of Manhattan, but that number is every square kilometer, which is each composed of 64 city blocks.

    - you claimed this was a minor variant of the flu

    - you claimed 25-50% of official covid deaths were people who never had covid (not merely went untested)

    - you claimed Ocasio-Cortes wrote some crazy conspiracy fodder tweet, then repeated the lie 2 more times

    - you claimed Fauci says we’ll have hundred million plus vaccines out by mid December (he didn’t)

    - you claimed Brix said half of all positive test results are false positives (she didnt, they aren’t)

    - you claim you’ve never made a false claim. ( you did)
    This could all be true, but none helps the narrative, and could help close the thread.

    Opinions and links are more than welcome. Let them speak for themselves, the rest of us will figure things out.

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    Grow up LTown. Everything you wrote is worthless. Everything I said may not agree with your narrative but what I e written was spot on when I wrote it. You argued with everything I wrote from day 1 . You have no background i this but you spout relentlessly.
    You’re smooth in your responses but over half the time your incompetence shows . I don’t really give a cht what you think. I rarely respond to you and you are on ignore. I don’t spend time of fools.
    To be clear though, everything I e said was correct when I said it. Tony Fauci told me he thought he would have over 200 million doses by years end. If he misses that goal , that’s the way it goes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    This could all be true, but none helps the narrative, and could help close the thread.

    Opinions and links are more than welcome. Let them speak for themselves, the rest of us will figure things out.
    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Grow up LTown. Everything you wrote is worthless. Everything I said may not agree with your narrative but what I e written was spot on when I wrote it. You argued with everything I wrote from day 1 . You have no background i this but you spout relentlessly.
    You’re smooth in your responses but over half the time your incompetence shows . I don’t really give a cht what you think. I rarely respond to you and you are on ignore. I don’t spend time of fools.
    To be clear though, everything I e said was correct when I said it. Tony Fauci told me he thought he would have over 200 million doses by years end. If he misses that goal , that’s the way it goes.
    You too, Doc. Let's just post relevant without putting others down...please.

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