From the Couer d' Alene press: https://cdapress.com/news/2020/jun/2...n-roth-zags-5/
Zag for Life
Roth, Zags plan for season of uncertainty
From the Couer d' Alene press: https://cdapress.com/news/2020/jun/2...n-roth-zags-5/
Zag for Life
I know the first game (pre-season or exhibition, however you want to call it) is not until around November 1st. It would be at the Kennel against some cupcake school. But I'm already worried; 2020 MLB may be a no-go, and the 2020 college and pro football seasons are up in the air. Having fans or no fans makes no difference to me; I am not local to Spokane. I've never been inside the Kennel. I'm just hoping that come November, I can go to the WCC website, click on the right window, and see my boys. Wishful thinking. I'm hearing we are already pre-season #1 in the nation, and it would suck if we could not defend that.
Zag for Life
2020 MLB season is now happening. (Shall see if Covid hits and its cancelled) NFL 2020 season wants to go but Fauci disagrees. However, if MLB happens and is a success I will believe rest of sports happen.Originally Posted by SorenTodd45
Love the zags for life
Zag for Life
Does the NBA still plan on playing in Florida this summer?
Zag for Life
MLB screwed the pooch with their back and forth infighting. I wouldn’t base anything on there being a baseball season or not.
Bulldog Fan
Roth echoed some of the same thoughts of uncertainty in a letter sent today to season ticket holders. I think for the most part, he is in a plan, check and adjust mode since each day seems to bring a new surprise or development. Intriguing to me is the idea that they may have to limit fans in the MAC (assuming fans are permitted at all) and just how they will choose who gets to attend. Same type of question about the students given social distancing isn’t practicable if it even possible within the student section.
As my momma used to say,“good things come to those who wait” so I guess that’s all we can do is wait.
Zag for Life
Ummm...https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...fety-protocols
Moderator
NY, NJ and Conn now require 14 day quarantine period for anyone coming in from certain states, Washington State being among them.
https://apple.news/AXIKuYbxEQTijie7EU9SnkA
It is only June and we are in the “down” period of respiratory diseases. Roth is going to have to be prepared to do a lot of scheduling on the fly.
'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
- Gandalf the Grey
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Foo Time
Super Moderator
Washington State is NOT on the list anymore. For a brief time the State was, but it was taken off after a review of the data.
"To be continued ....."
Father Tony Lehman, SJ
Zag for Life
Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?Big drop in new cases GZ. Very good news! Somebody wanna break this news to LTown who seems to thrive on wrong data.No offense intended.
*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.
(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)
Zag for Life
Fake news? I can't keep up. Sometimes it is good to be in large crowds and sometimes it isn't. Who decides?Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?
*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.
(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)
Banned
For some reason the moderators have decided that you de-facto calling someone ignorant, dishonest, or a knowing liar without giving any evidence isn't a problem here, but ethically and personally it's something I'd hope a public-facing MD in his 70s or 80s had grown out of maybe 5 or 6 decades ago.
If you can find a single example of me posting incorrect data, would you please provide the example? I'll extend the request to any predictions, which I've almost entirely avoided making.
Meanwhile, I was double-checking the graphs and stats I posted earlier, to make sure nothing was erroneous or out of context, and came across this prediction, which will be 2 months old as of tomorrow.
Zag for Life
NO worries Cad..........different states. Very high profile states..... I got thisWait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?
*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.
(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)
Zag for Life
The amount of sniping on here is distressing. Believe it or not, there can be a diversity of opinions on here. That is okay.
Zag for Life
Correct ZO. Tiresome isnt it!! All thing to be taken with a grain of salt
Redshirt
It's not just Washington State. California has had a record spike in cases, and it looks grim. I really don't see any WCC teams from CA playing college basketball this season.
Zag for Life
Wouldn't you say this chart is misleading? I see these # of cases charts almost universally. What you don't see on a consistent basis are the charts that show hospitalizations and deaths.Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?
*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.
(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/N.../DataDashboard
Consider chart # 2. It shows deaths in Washington State are 8-10 times less than at the peak.
Consider chart # 6. It shows hospitalizations in the state to be approximately 75% of the peak.
Isn't it probable that the virus has claimed the most vulnerable and though cases are climbing for various reasons the folks that are being infected are nowhere near the danger of death and hospitalization we saw at peak?
I don't know how to post the charts. If someone would be so kind to do so I would appreciate it.
Zag for Life
The more likely explanation for me is that testing capacity has expanded and a higher percentage of the total actual infections are being documented. However, the recent trend is still not good and spikes in hospitalizations and deaths are typically going to be lagging after the spikes in cases.
Agent provocateur
Zag for Life
That isn't what the data says. Cases have been going up for several weeks now, yet deaths and hospitalizations have been going down. That's what the charts say.
Can one of you tech wizards post the charts please?
Zag for Life
I'm looking at the daily rolling 7 day average on the chart Caduceus posted and you quoted. It looks like that trend line has only been substantially going up for the last week, doubling in that time frame.
When contact tracing started, it was expected that documented cases would go up because we would be doing targeted testing of many aysymptomatic or presymptomatic people. So a rise in cases as that happened did not necessarily indicate a rise in infections and a steady trend line might have meant that infections were actually going down during that time. Which would explain why hospitalizations and deaths were declining while the trend line was pretty steady from April 16 - June 16.
Agent provocateur
Zag for Life
As for Europe doing so much better than us cretins in the U.S. that don't value lives like they do...
Deaths per million people due to Covid.
US 374
UK 637
Spain 606
Italy 574
Belgium 839
Sweden 518
France 455
Netherlands 356
Ireland 350
Stats from Worldometer.
Kennel Club
The Center for Disease Control has all the science based information and advice and if people would strictly follow it we could beat this thing. No leadership at the top is one big problem. Are we turning into a society in which the preventable deaths of many innocent people is the cost we are prepared to accept?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
Banned
Here's the confirmed (lab tests) case count. Cases have been going up for about 2.5 weeks, as Mark says. We've also seen rising percentage of tests being positive in that time (from 4.6 to 5.2%) so we're testing more people and also having more of each batch show COVID infections. Deaths have always lagged new cases by something like 3 weeks. (of those who die, the average number of days they've had COVID is in the 3week range).
Here are deaths, which Mark also correctly notes have been falling. The regularly spaced (weekly) peaks and valleys are due to different reporting/delaying of deaths on the weekends.
And one graph with USA daily confirmed cases and deaths.
The median age of Americans now testing positive is 35. As MDABE has pointed out, the majority of those who die are over 65. So if/as the infected population skews younger than before, the fatality rate will drop.
I would love a good source for overall national hospitalizations, or hospitalizations due to respiratory illness (influenza-like-symptoms). I don't know of one.
Note: this is Florida and not national, so it may not be representative.
Note also: In April we were testing so few people nationally, and generally just far sicker and more symptomatic people, such that the median age for all testing was likely much older than the median age of our current more widespread testing. I couldn't find data on how the median age of all people given a COVID test has changed over time. Which is to say, a large drop in the median age for people positive doesn't necessarily mean the disease truly is currently infecting a younger cohort of the population than 2 months ago. But my (hunch/opinion time) sense is that people over 65yrs old truly are trying to isolate and mask up much more than younger folks, and that the median age of all those infected (not just tested) really has come down enough to mean (I predict) we'll see at least a 30% lower infection fatality rate in July than in April. By August1 we'll know if my prediction is correct.
Zag for Life
No, not misleading. I was talking about cases in response to it being mentioned that they were falling. The graph is accurate for its intended purpose. That's all.
Death numbers are widely available (although recent news accounts seem to suggest that some states are fudging their numbers -- intentionally or unintentionally -- regarding cause of death. I dunno anything about that).
Hospitalizations are a a bit trickier, since every state reports them differently, not to mention that initial diagnoses when someone is admitted is not always specific enough, or may change. For example, one might be admitted with shortness of breath, but discharged with something like "myocardial infarction."
Banned
Big and important difference between "misleading" and "not measuring the thing I want to see measured".
I think the comparisons of total deaths or total confirmed cases per country are examples of this. They are accurate and not misleading, but the same comparison graphs adjusted for population size are generally more of what I (and I think most people) want measured when comparing the severity of the outbreak. The USA, for example, has almost as many people as the entire EU. If one wants to look at the scale of tragedy of the deaths from "X", look at deaths per-capita, or at least compare places with similar populations (California vs Spain, or the USA vs the EU).
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