Roth, Zags plan for season of uncertainty

[MDABE80]

Dixie nobody is disputing that FL, TX and AZ are having spikes in the disease.....I do think much of it is due to not using the protection guidlines.
Imprtantly as the younger set gets infected, the survival rate is better. I do not know how Cad or Tin feels about attenuation.but it looks like thats happening as the older hosts in general seem to be doing better ( Maybe most vulnerable of them passed already) except in NY, NJ where management is just stupid due to incompetent governors.

In my life, I've always worried about doing the best thing...in my case I worry after treatment... that maybe the best thing wasn't done.........I know this much: I'm tired of this COVID 19 virus and the recurrent discussions about it when few, if any, really can put their fingers on the facts and then make something work properly.

We do have principles of management though.and they usually work. Distance, masking, and common sense measures.......should continue.

[tinfoilzag]

A quarantine does work. Whether we in the U.S. are a mature enough as a people to do it or not, is certainly up in the air, we haven't yet. The solution isn't that different to the solution to drunk driving: "If everyone would just get a designated driver …" and deaths went down, people changed knowing they could hurt others.

All countries are too different to compare (culture, climate, diet, geography, etc.). Apples to oranges comparison.

You're making my point when you say 'not mature enough' in the US for quarantine. That means the quarantine won't work over time because you don't have compliance. People's behavior is a key component of quarantine. To your drunk driving analogy, we have to have drunk driving patrols and over-serving rules and education campaigns and huge penalties and they are still happening. All this stuff to stop drunk driving and you can't eliminate it. Reduced but not eliminated. You have many more people that are going to ignore lock down orders than drunk driver laws by percentage.

It's another case of "the system to save the people would work if it wasn't for the people."

I'm not saying quarantine doesn't work, i'm saying it doesn't work without people changing their behavior. If US citizens by in large aren't willing to change, then there needs to be a different plan because right now we are destroying businesses and lives at the same time we are spreading the disease.

[willandi]

All countries are too different to compare (culture, climate, diet, geography, etc.). Apples to oranges comparison.

You're making my point when you say 'not mature enough' in the US for quarantine. That means the quarantine won't work over time because you don't have compliance. People's behavior is a key component of quarantine. To your drunk driving analogy, we have to have drunk driving patrols and over-serving rules and education campaigns and huge penalties and they are still happening. All this stuff to stop drunk driving and you can't eliminate it. Reduced but not eliminated. You have many more people that are going to ignore lock down orders than drunk driver laws by percentage.

It's another case of "the system to save the people would work if it wasn't for the people."

I'm not saying quarantine doesn't work, i'm saying it doesn't work without people changing their behavior. If US citizens by in large aren't willing to change, then there needs to be a different plan because right now we are destroying businesses and lives at the same time we are spreading the disease.

If we had HAD a lock down, virtually complete, for 6 weeks, we would be over this. The virus transfers from person to person. If no people are interacting, there would be no transmission.

I posted this on Facebook today and thought I had already posted it here, but apparently not.

"Hindsight is, indeed 20/20.

In my opinion, what needed to be done in mid March was for there to be a single entity, at the head of this country, that mandated a 6 week quarantine. Health care workers, grocery store and pharmacy workers, to put your online or phoned in orders into the trunk of your car, truck drivers for delivery of products for the groceries, utility workers, on a rotating/skeletal staff, and the same for package delivery of medical necessities should be the ONLY essential workers. All others quarantined in home excepting to get food and medicine.
Strict monitoring and fines, graduated for repeat offenders up to, and including, incarcerations for those unwilling.
Rent and bills are held in abeyance. A single time check to ALL eligible individual workers should be paid...no companies and no corporations. Make the check large enough that no person or family is hurting (and having Amazon etc unavailable means the money WILL go to necessities.) The essential workers get this money plus their wages. Maybe $5000/person. Still less than the largesse shown to the corporations and the rich.
Had this been done in March, we would be over this coronavirus now.

The question is, could it be done now?"

[DZ]

All countries are too different to compare (culture, climate, diet, geography, etc.). Apples to oranges comparison.

You're making my point when you say 'not mature enough' in the US for quarantine. That means the quarantine won't work over time because you don't have compliance. People's behavior is a key component of quarantine. To your drunk driving analogy, we have to have drunk driving patrols and over-serving rules and education campaigns and huge penalties and they are still happening. All this stuff to stop drunk driving and you can't eliminate it. Reduced but not eliminated. You have many more people that are going to ignore lock down orders than drunk driver laws by percentage.

It's another case of "the system to save the people would work if it wasn't for the people."

I'm not saying quarantine doesn't work, i'm saying it doesn't work without people changing their behavior. If US citizens by in large aren't willing to change, then there needs to be a different plan because right now we are destroying businesses and lives at the same time we are spreading the disease.

So in the entire world, we are the one country unable to do it. They're apples, we're oranges.

I don't agree with anything you've said, so I'll stop now and just leave a link with the rest of the world's performance versus ours, and you're argument is that we're the one nation unwilling or unable to do it. (And we can't include the whole nation bc the Northeast now looks like the rest of the world's graphs.

[tinfoilzag]

So in the entire world, we are the one country unable to do it. They're apples, we're oranges.

I think this is well stated. We are so fundamentally different, we'll need our own solution.

[Zags11]

Been 3 plus months. Hope it doesn't turn into a year plus.

[GoZags]

Washington State is NOT on the list anymore. For a brief time the State was, but it was taken off after a review of the data.

NY, NJ and Conn now require 14 day quarantine period for anyone coming in from certain states, Washington State being among them.

https://apple.news/AXIKuYbxEQTijie7EU9SnkA

It is only June and we are in the “down” period of respiratory diseases. Roth is going to have to be prepared to do a lot of scheduling on the fly.

[caduceus]

Big drop in new cases GZ. Very good news! Somebody wanna break this news to LTown who seems to thrive on wrong data. No offense intended.

Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?




*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.


(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)

[DZ]

I think this is well stated. We are so fundamentally different, we'll need our own solution.

So we are actually the one country that can't deal with it.

We don't have a solution. Our "solution" - as you argued - has been mostly to pretend it's not here and we can't do anything, even though everywhere else has done a great job and results have been about the same everywhere else.

How far we've fallen. The rest of the world is now in their post-phase, we're reaching new highs. And some take pride in it. Terrible.

[ZagaZags]

Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?




*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.


(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)

Fake news? I can't keep up. Sometimes it is good to be in large crowds and sometimes it isn't. Who decides?

[LTownZag]

Big drop in new cases GZ. Very good news! Somebody wanna break this news to LTown who seems to thrive on wrong data. No offense intended.

For some reason the moderators have decided that you de-facto calling someone ignorant, dishonest, or a knowing liar without giving any evidence isn't a problem here, but ethically and personally it's something I'd hope a public-facing MD in his 70s or 80s had grown out of maybe 5 or 6 decades ago.

If you can find a single example of me posting incorrect data, would you please provide the example? I'll extend the request to any predictions, which I've almost entirely avoided making.

Meanwhile, I was double-checking the graphs and stats I posted earlier, to make sure nothing was erroneous or out of context, and came across this prediction, which will be 2 months old as of tomorrow.

looking at the data, this viral thing is fading pretty fast..in terms of admissions, new cases, ventilator usage, ICU pts and deaths. I suspect this may be gone by September. Precautions will remain but the sickness will be infrequent unless the media continues to exaggerate the danger.

[MDABE80]

Wait, what? What drop in cases? WA is now hitting early April numbers, as I mentioned before. Where are you getting your information?




*Blue line is rolling 7 day average. Stay at home order ended May 30.


(Oh God, I'm now doing stats in the off-season!)

NO worries Cad..........different states. Very high profile states..... I got this

[ZagsObserver]

The amount of sniping on here is distressing. Believe it or not, there can be a diversity of opinions on here. That is okay.

[MDABE80]

Correct ZO. Tiresome isnt it!! All thing to be taken with a grain of salt

[DonJuan]

It's not just Washington State. California has had a record spike in cases, and it looks grim. I really don't see any WCC teams from CA playing college basketball this season.