Roth, Zags plan for season of uncertainty

[Section 116]

From the Couer d' Alene press: https://cdapress.com/news/2020/jun/2...n-roth-zags-5/

[SorenTodd45]

I know the first game (pre-season or exhibition, however you want to call it) is not until around November 1st. It would be at the Kennel against some cupcake school. But I'm already worried; 2020 MLB may be a no-go, and the 2020 college and pro football seasons are up in the air. Having fans or no fans makes no difference to me; I am not local to Spokane. I've never been inside the Kennel. I'm just hoping that come November, I can go to the WCC website, click on the right window, and see my boys. Wishful thinking. I'm hearing we are already pre-season #1 in the nation, and it would suck if we could not defend that.

[Zags11]

I know the first game (pre-season or exhibition, however you want to call it) is not until around November 1st. It would be at the Kennel against some cupcake school. But I'm already worried; 2020 MLB may be a no-go, and the 2020 college and pro football seasons are up in the air. Having fans or no fans makes no difference to me; I am not local to Spokane. I've never been inside the Kennel. I'm just hoping that come November, I can go to the WCC website, click on the right window, and see my boys. Wishful thinking. I'm hearing we are already pre-season #1 in the nation, and it would suck if we could not defend that.

2020 MLB season is now happening. (Shall see if Covid hits and its cancelled) NFL 2020 season wants to go but Fauci disagrees. However, if MLB happens and is a success I will believe rest of sports happen.

[ZagaZags]

Does the NBA still plan on playing in Florida this summer?

[hooter73]

MLB screwed the pooch with their back and forth infighting. I wouldn’t base anything on there being a baseball season or not.

[AirborneJag]

Roth echoed some of the same thoughts of uncertainty in a letter sent today to season ticket holders. I think for the most part, he is in a plan, check and adjust mode since each day seems to bring a new surprise or development. Intriguing to me is the idea that they may have to limit fans in the MAC (assuming fans are permitted at all) and just how they will choose who gets to attend. Same type of question about the students given social distancing isn’t practicable if it even possible within the student section.

As my momma used to say,“good things come to those who wait” so I guess that’s all we can do is wait.

[cggonzaga]

MLB screwed the pooch with their back and forth infighting. I wouldn’t base anything on there being a baseball season or not.

Ummm...https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...fety-protocols

[ZagsObserver]

How does Inslee’s mask proclamation play into this?

[Once and Future Zag]

The US is still in the midst of the "first wave" - we're going to be dealing with COVID for so long at this point... at this point my assumption is that - at best - that the next MBB season is maybe conference-only, starting in January.

[GonzaGAW]

- as a season ticket holder to the women's team (11 years now), i received my email today from roth.
- short stokes, next month season ticket holders will be receiving notices with opportunity to renew your season tickets.
- gu will work with state officials, local health district, and take measures to ensure health of players, staff and fans.
- if any game or games are played or cancelled in which a season ticket holder is not allowed to attend, said ticket holder has 2 options. 1. donate the ticket price to the university 2. ask for a refund.

- roth has said before, they will either have no fans, or a full arena. which makes sense, no way you can manage who can and cannot attend, or where they can or cannot sit.

- p.s. hey, i'm an alumni, and fan, but option 1 made me laugh out loud. yes to option 2, thank you please.

[3XaZag]

Hopefully I can get away with a minor detour into the science.

It will become increasingly clear that the metric to look out for is deaths..not cases. With everything slowly opening back up there will be, and already is, an increase in cases. You can say its due to the demonstrations, amusement parks, or whatever/whomever your politics drives you to blame. Cases in the last week (13-16th vs 20-23) are up 36%.

Deaths are a different story. In the same period they are down from 2,307 to 2,066- a drop of 11%...... That 47% divergence in just one week is huge, and we are seeing it more over time. I am not in the medical field and welcome corrections from those who are, but from what I read, there is likely two reasons for this shift. First, the stronger, more virulent strains of the virus, make people get sick more obviously, thus they are quarantined more, limiting exposure. Then it kills quicker, again limiting exposure. Therefore most viruses get weaker the longer they are out in a population (this exact dynamic is what "did in" SARS in the 00's). The second reason is as the first wave passes it infects/kills the weakest in the population...COVID did this in the nursing homes. The longer it stays out there the more it runs into a stronger populace...thus less deaths. No guarantee these trends will continue, but if they do, the long awaited shift to death rates that are closer to the annual flu will make society feel safer and hasten a return to normal life. A infectious disease doctor in Italy just wrote this is what will end the pandemic, because it will happen a lot sooner than a vaccine. If, at four months since the generally accepted start of the pandemic, we see it, what will this trend look like 4-6 more months down the line. Again, no guarantees, but my money is on the survival of the fittest, and in this case, that will be a weaker version of the virus trying to feed on an increasingly less vulnerable population (and this doesn't even factor in "herd immunity", which isn't much of a factor yet, but will become increasingly important).

If you just stayed with me through those two paragraphs you are two things. First, a better man than me, and second, an optimist that this season will happen...even if there is a glitch, delay, or bump or two.

[MDABE80]

The US is still in the midst of the "first wave" - we're going to be dealing with COVID for so long at this point... at this point my assumption is that - at best - that the next MBB season is maybe conference-only, starting in January.

MLB agreed to terms with the union and with the players today. They will have a 60 game season. Short season but it's on.

[Gonzdb8]

How does Inslee’s mask proclamation play into this?

1) i don't believe this was a proclamation, but instead an order implementing a legal requirement. 2) if masks are still required by law come this fall i would think that means the situation is still serious enough that its unlikely sports happens, and certainly not with any fans. thats just my speculation of course, but seems to make sense.

[sylean]

I agree with all your points except I'm not too optimistic ....why?....because the goals set at the beginning of this have come and gone, and now, we're making up new goals....it wasn't good enough to close down hospital wards in anticipation of the "surge" and to be prepared....now it seems people are upset that the virus is actually doing what a virus does....spread....and yes, death rates are way down....not only are people not getting terribly sick but the treatments have improved....we're testing lots of people now but we seem surprised that there are more cases...

its very strange....

[willandi]

Under Armour debuts masks to wear while working out

https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Style/arm...ry?id=71402427

[hegotit!]

With all the information and disinformation out there and the back and forth from the head scientist and doctors, who knows what to believe sometimes??

So in this situation I fall back to my education and common sense. The decision makers/Governor states that he is relying on the science, my problem with that is he has constantly been moving the goal post and not stuck to the science. The stay at home order was to flatten the curve to not overwhelm the hospitals. In eastern Washington that was successful. We move to phase 2 and now the goal is to keep people safe. So now the Governor is going to mandate masks.

Do masks work? Here again there is much proof from both sides. In Japan it is their culture to wear masks when they are sick and in public. Sounds fair to me. My opinion from everything out there is healthy people should not have to wear a mask. So why are we going to be required to wear a mask?

This leads to can asymptomatic transmission take place between people?? This one I have to lean towards its only contagious when a person has a fever like other illnesses.

[caduceus]

Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microörganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.

I learned from the best in Hughes Hall, researched and published on microbiological processes for many a summer at GU. Learned at the largest research University in this state. Worked with many of the epidemiologists and virologists on the front line here in Washington State, including those making policy right now, and shared microscopes with and worked with those that are doing the vast majority of viral testing in our state at the moment. I'm not here to brag, but to share knowledge.

I'm super excited about our emerging rosters. I'm super depressed about the fact that virtually no one will adhere to the advice of our scientists. Pretty much every doctor colleague I know has sadly given up trying to advise the public due to the overwhelming backlash of stupidity, and that includes some of my dearest, dearest alumni friends that send me articles every time there's news that it's all a hoax, and "Texas is winning!" I'm ready to give up on these people I've known and loved for decades.

Several studies have shown that universal mask usage would likely drop Ncov19 transmission by 90%. Other studies have definitively shown that the earlier a country mandated masks, the better their outcomes were. It's no longer a point of contention, except for the people ignoring the scientific facts. College Basketball is a national game, and that requires every region and school to have essentially entirely healthy players.

The current trajectory suggests that there will be no games through the rest of this year, and likely beyond. That breaks my heart, particularly for my alma mater and favorite team. I truly hope I'm wrong.

The other WCC states are getting absolutely hammered right now. I wish I had better news. There is no "viral attenuation" happening. It's still as infectious (with minimal mutation) and a large number of seriously ill are under 60, and even under 40. I've seen it. We're just protecting our most vulnerable (elderly) better.

I'll reiterate again. Wear masks, wash hands, keep your distance. Follow the recommendations. Hope for the best.

Stay safe all my Zag friends.

Edit: Bottom line -- If YOU WANT TO HAVE BASKETBALL, you have to stop this virus in its tracks. The way you do that is masking, social distancing, testing, testing, testing, contract tracing and quarantining. Outside of masks, these effective methods are as old as time. Do that until we have a safe and effective vaccine.

[hegotit!]

A question for Caduceus. Is the virus transmittable between people showing no symptoms?

[willandi]

Hi MDABE80,

Thanks for referencing me and including me in this discussion, I really appreciate your suggestion that I contribute!

Cases are indeed rising in FL and Texas and also a "few" other states. But in this case "a few" means 21 others, with over half the nation's people.

The USA is testing more people daily than ever (now up to ~.5million) but we're seeing a higher percent positive tests than recently as well. When your fraction is getting larger just as your denominator grows, you know that your numerator (people sick) is growing faster than the denominator.

From Johns Hopkins:



If you could give one example of me ever contributing "some midquote of a outdated medical tidbit" please post a link, a quote, or better yet send me a private message. I'd happily delete it. I'd hate to have posted a misquote of an outdated medical tidbit, and would prefer to delete such a thing if I have posted in up to now. Also, if you can offer a single example of me ever making an interdiction (lame or otherwise), I'd happily retract it.

I hope you are having a great day and enjoying summer in the northwest.

I think the point is, post your data, express your opinions, but then trying to get a rise out of Doc should be left out, just as his towards you should be done without.

The answer is...Only time will tell. All the prognostications, all the charts and all the data don't tell us what WILL happen, only what COULD happen.

[tinfoilzag]

Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microörganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.

So never. That's when you get a vaccine for corona viruses like MERS and the common cold. Outside of curing the common cold, you never get a vaccine.

There is one plan and there has always been one plan. It spreads enough to gain some semblance of herd immunity without overloading the hospitals. You can draw it out or you can rip off the band-aid but the defense is dealing with the spread, not stopping the spread.

At the core of coming up with the solution is politics. Politics is going to creep into every offering of a solution because the solution depends on one's belief. Do you believe that the government is a benevolent force concerned with your well being or people working in their own self-interest and the interest of those in powerful positions. Wherever you are on the spectrum, it influences your opinion.

Deciding to return to normalcy has a cost. Deciding to stay shut down and infringe on liberties has a cost. It depends on what types of prices one is willing to pay.

Based on the governor's current position, it doesn't look like we'll have a 20-21 season at GU.

[caduceus]

A question for Caduceus. Is the virus transmittable between people showing no symptoms?

It unquestionably is transmissible in that fashion. It's terrible that people have to deal with conflicting information, but part of the problem is that the press doesn't always understand the medical studies, and jump to conclusions. Usually, the medical community is quick to correct those things, but as you probably know.... a lie can travel around the world before the truth even gets its shoes on.

[kitzbuel]

NY, NJ and Conn now require 14 day quarantine period for anyone coming in from certain states, Washington State being among them.

https://apple.news/AXIKuYbxEQTijie7EU9SnkA

It is only June and we are in the “down” period of respiratory diseases. Roth is going to have to be prepared to do a lot of scheduling on the fly.

[Spink]

Nobody seems to recall my postings from February and March. I warned everyone here about the seriousness of this pandemic (including my medical colleague friends on this board who were making frivolous flu comparisons), and very sadly bailed myself on attending the WCC tournament because of the data.

Yesterday, Inslee said the masking mandate would likely continue until a vaccine is available. Anyone think a vaccine will be ready in November? We'll be lucky if it's not another six months after that, and that's very optimistic. The earliest a vaccine was ever developed was in 4 years. I already exposited about the germy nature of basketball. Outside of American football, there isn't a sport that doesn't spread microörganisms better (and I made a post specifically about that too). See my posting history.

I learned from the best in Hughes Hall, researched and published on microbiological processes for many a summer at GU. Learned at the largest research University in this state. Worked with many of the epidemiologists and virologists on the front line here in Washington State, including those making policy right now, and shared microscopes with and worked with those that are doing the vast majority of viral testing in our state at the moment. I'm not here to brag, but to share knowledge.

I'm super excited about our emerging rosters. I'm super depressed about the fact that virtually no one will adhere to the advice of our scientists. Pretty much every doctor colleague I know has sadly given up trying to advise the public due to the overwhelming backlash of stupidity, and that includes some of my dearest, dearest alumni friends that send me articles every time there's news that it's all a hoax, and "Texas is winning!" I'm ready to give up on these people I've known and loved for decades.

Several studies have shown that universal mask usage would likely drop Ncov19 transmission by 90%. Other studies have definitively shown that the earlier a country mandated masks, the better their outcomes were. It's no longer a point of contention, except for the people ignoring the scientific facts. College Basketball is a national game, and that requires every region and school to have essentially entirely healthy players.

The current trajectory suggests that there will be no games through the rest of this year, and likely beyond. That breaks my heart, particularly for my alma mater and favorite team. I truly hope I'm wrong.

The other WCC states are getting absolutely hammered right now. I wish I had better news. There is no "viral attenuation" happening. It's still as infectious (with minimal mutation) and a large number of seriously ill are under 60, and even under 40. I've seen it. We're just protecting our most vulnerable (elderly) better.

I'll reiterate again. Wear masks, wash hands, keep your distance. Follow the recommendations. Hope for the best.

Stay safe all my Zag friends.

Edit: Bottom line -- If YOU WANT TO HAVE BASKETBALL, you have to stop this virus in its tracks. The way you do that is masking, social distancing, testing, testing, testing, contract tracing and quarantining. Outside of masks, these effective methods are as old as time. Do that until we have a safe and effective vaccine.

God’s gift to GU board!

Thanks for your opinion. Sorry NOBODY remembered your Feb/Mar post.

[MDABE80]

The biggest problem in the states with spikes is that people somehow think we are out of this and it's gone......thus, masks, distancing, etc have taken a back seat. All along, this was the edict both here on this board and everywhere I've been. Virus isn't gone despite the apparent attenuation. I do not think basketball will start if there is a recurrence. Data so far doesn't seem to reveal that. without precautions and the pending vaccine, anything goes.

Very good post Cad. Not sure about everything in your post but it does clarify many things.and from a very good medical person.........not a pretender.

[Reborn]

I am not a scientist, nor am I a politician. However, as a graduate of Gonzaga University I can say that I do believe in science. My education helped me discover this fact. So I do follow the guidelines of the recommendations of science, stately very clearly by Caduceus. It has been a little hard to remain safe in my home and wear a mask when going out. But honestly, it is far from being the most difficult thing I've ever done. Actually, it's dang easy. I even made my own mask with the help of my son Demian. It's a small price we need to make in order to save lives and get back to a life style of enjoying life outside our homes.

Go Zags!!!