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Thread: Roth, Zags plan for season of uncertainty

  1. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by caduceus View Post
    First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

    Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

    Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

    Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

    I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

    Best, =cad=
    Couldn’t agree more, with all of this. This thread has been full of useful information and was being managed responsibly.

    Your posts have been extremely informative Cad, very much appreciated.

    Makes me proud of the many brilliant Gonzaga Alums and fans out there. We have a pretty high brow community visiting these boards.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
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  2. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by caduceus View Post
    First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

    Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

    Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

    Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

    I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

    Best, =cad=
    100% agreement with this. Cad, your posts in this thread are very much appreciated, thank you

  3. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    I ask the question, “Am I the only one on this board that thinks like I do or is it you feel I’m a nut?

    I ask because there are never any comments regarding my posts...
    I do not feel you are a nut, the opposite Bogo!

  4. #129
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    It’s an election year and EVERYTHING is viewed through those lenses.

    it is what it is.

    looks at it like redshirt year.....maybe we get a wavier....but doubtful

  5. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by caduceus View Post
    First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

    Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

    Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

    Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

    I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

    Best, =cad=
    It's got science based. It's more like an opinion piece with some stats tossed in. And its the type of thing that misleads. Sources? not many.just some talk. Apparently you think the CDC is a solid source. It's a part of the government but only to implement what the Congress tells it to. It's their charter. CDC thus, has become a political arm of who it decees to pay attention to. ROckefeller FOundation set it up and it's received fed funding along with $200 million from priovate companies ( drug companies chip in $80 million and private sources throw in $170 million. It's become more of a political organization and has strayed from its purpose.
    Mybeef is attaching them to this administration when it's not. Even during the Obama years it had it's marching orders after SARS 2. committee after committee was formed by that particul administration to offer a course forward for this specifice tye of epidemic. What did CDC do? Wheat did Obam's group do? nothing.
    the cupboard was actually bare!
    But worse..CDC then bounght the tests.from where? China! And the sensitivity and specificity both were so low............there are unusable ( again bare cupboards).

    DSHS ( the controlling agency) did nothing. Once again bare cupboards. but worse, nobocy at CDC tested the tests until COVID. And this is why I'm so damned angry.......billions spent to protect the public and nobody did their job. And nobody checked. This, there, is why I object to blaming the present group in the WH. It's goes to the prior administration. It's been turned into a political issue only because media says so. It's a failing of CDC and DSHS who are supposed to be monitoring this type of thing. unvarnished truth.

  6. #131
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    Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
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  7. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?
    And we have Obama to thank for that oversight! Bare cupboards!

    How many other nonexistent global viruses did Obama not prevent?

    Last edited by LTownZag; 06-27-2020 at 02:42 PM.

  8. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?
    There were no COVID tests, but there was an epidemiological team in the White House as part of the National Security Council. After responding to H1N1, SARS, Ebola, the previous administration revamped everything and moved a team of epidemiologists inside the White House for a more rapid response. This current White House disbanded the unit in 2018, as stated in this 2018 article written at the time:

    The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.
    Ziemer’s last day was Tuesday, the same day a new Ebola outbreak was declared in Congo. He is not being replaced.
    Not only was the cupboard not bare, the previous administration specifically put the incoming administration through a pandemic drill as part of the transition:

    The Obama administration walked incoming Trump administration officials through a hypothetical scenario in which a pandemic worse than the 1918 Spanish flu shut down cities like Seoul and London in early 2017, Politico reported.

    During the briefing, Trump administration officials were told such a pandemic would likely lead to circumstances such as shortages of ventilators and that a coordinated national response would be “paramount,” according to documents obtained by the publication.
    Of the Trump administration officials present during the meeting, about 66 percent no longer serve in the White House, according to Politico.

    "Thirty Trump officials attended the exercise (Cabinet and senior White House staff)," Lu added in a tweet on Monday. "But the vast majority of these officials are no longer in government."
    Everyone is free to prioritize what they'd like when it comes to government and politics but the facts are the facts and we're not playing basketball or getting back to business as a nation until everyone starts dealing in facts as they actually exist. All criticism is fair so long as one starts with the right facts. Here is a link to Politifact on the point about the "cupboards" not being bare.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
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  9. #134
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    No I don't realize that. China had the only test and CDC bought it.

    They WH didn't disband it. It was moved out of the WH. The Zeimer was offered another job but declined.

    I suppose you have some reliable sources for your statements. You and/por Kitz produce something. If Ive got this wrong, I
    ll retract but nothing I've read portrays your stories.

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    https://www.google.com/search?client...om+coronavirus

    So yes the deaths are falling. Cases are increasing. It's the younger people that are getting infected but they seem to tolerate better and don't die. Either that or the virus is self attenuating. Cad's opinion on attenuation might be helpful here. Looks like it though. NB. last 3 days there's been and increase in deaths but overall the trend is good IMHO.
    Last edited by MDABE80; 06-27-2020 at 05:21 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    And we have Obama to thank for that oversight! Bare cupboards!

    How many other nonexistent global viruses did Obama not prevent?

    Nice try but not true.

    https://gfycat.com/graywealthycanary
    It's not funny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Classic
    Agent provocateur

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    Dixie still waiting on the sources you quote above...

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    https://www.google.com/search?client...om+coronavirus

    So yes the deaths are falling. Cases are increasing. It's the younger people that are getting infected but they seem to tolerate better and don't die. Either that or the virus is self attenuating. Cad's opinion on attenuation might be helpful here. Looks like it though. NB. last 3 days there's been and increase in deaths but overall the trend is good IMHO.
    Deaths are a lagging indicator. The latest spikes happened in the last 2-3 weeks, and since NYC had the biggest protests and yet still falling admissions/numbers, it doesn't appear to be protests that did it. It appears to be bars, restaurants, churches - indoors appears to be far more dangerous, unfortunately. The cases are rising in the sun states, AZ, TX, MS, GA, FLA, all states where people are now indoors more and heavy church states (people sing in church, it's wonderful family, hard to distance) unfortunately, ICUs are at capacity in Houston, MS, and areas of FLA.

    I hope you're right about deaths continuing down. I have my doubts. The trend, however, as Cad says, is the opposite of good, it's terrifying.

    As for the White House office, it's just a fact Abe (and of course I have links, I don't make this stuff up). It doesn't work when people are outside the White House and spread out. Obama decided things didn't work well in SARS and H1N1 and in Ebola he centralized all control in the White House to streamline everything

    This is from Foreign Policy magazine, decades old, non-political, and written in January of 2020 - before the response was so disastrous:

    For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response unit....

    When Ebola broke out in West Africa in 2014, President Barack Obama recognized that responding to the outbreak overseas, while also protecting Americans at home, involved multiple U.S. government departments and agencies, none of which were speaking to one another. Basically, the U.S. pandemic infrastructure was an enormous orchestra full of talented, egotistical players, each jockeying for solos and fame, refusing to rehearse, and demanding higher salaries —all without a conductor. To bring order and harmony, der and harmony to the chaos, rein in the agency egos, and create a coherent multiagency response overseas and on the homefront, Obama anointed a former vice presidential staffer, Ronald Klain, as a sort of “epidemic czar” inside the White House, clearly stipulated the roles and budgets of various agencies, and placed incident commanders in charge in each Ebola-hit country and inside the United States. The orchestra may have still had its off-key instruments, but it played the same tune.

    But that’s all gone now.

    In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Under fire from both sides of the aisle, President Donald Trump dropped the proposal to eliminate Ebola funds a month later. But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.

    In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC’s entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced
    So to say they were reassigned, scattered, is first - wrong, it was disbanded entirely. Second, to the extent anyone was kept on but scattered, that was the problem in the first place. The system hadn't worked well. That article was written a week after the first case, and there was no indication anything would go wrong. It went horribly wrong, and one can argue China China China all day, but the appropriate response is to assume China isn't going to do the quality work that the American infectious disease unit can do, and have it up and ready to go. They didn't.

    As for a link to the fact that the Obama admin - that had been through 3 total epidemic scares and managed them all relatively well (though each is unique) they put the Trump admin through a trial run specifically bc this scared them, we were vulnerable:

    This is from "The Hill" - which is not partisan at all (indeed John Solomon did his Biden-Ukraine work there). These are facts, backed up by documents obtained by Politico:

    The Obama administration walked incoming Trump administration officials through a hypothetical scenario in which a pandemic worse than the 1918 Spanish flu shut down cities like Seoul and London in early 2017, Politico reported.

    During the briefing, Trump administration officials were told such a pandemic would likely lead to circumstances such as shortages of ventilators and that a coordinated national response would be “paramount,” according to documents obtained by the publication.

    "Bottom line: when Trump says "we were all surprised" by #COVID19, he shouldn't have been," Lu continued.
    "The Obama team warned Trump's staff about a possible pandemic. Whether it was lack of preparation or staff turnover, the necessary work wasn’t done to get in front of this
    ."
    As for the Cupboards being bare, Politifact (the sin qua non on balance) rates the claim mostly false. There were few N95 masks but there were never enough, nor enough money appropriated by congress (though not "bare"). Obama Admin went through 3 epidemics, of course stocks would be down. Trump admin had 3 years w/o an epidemic, saying the cupboard were bare is an indictment of Trump's admin not restocking them, if true, which it wasn't:

    Trump is exaggerating. While the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted shortcomings in the nation’s stockpile of emergency supplies and equipment, Trump did not inherit bare inventory.
    It was full of supplies, but not enough to handle this particular pandemic. Most notably, the stockpile was short of N95 masks, the supply of which was depleted following the 2009 H1N1 outbreak during President Barack Obama’s tenure.

    I am not trying to prove you wrong. (You did ask for citations and the information). In the spirit of the work that Cad has done, and to try to cut through some of the politics, I am simply setting out the facts. There is nothing I would have liked more than to have had this handled perfectly.

    One could say that much of this was out of anyone's hands to control, and China wasn't forthcoming early enough. If the rest of the world was in the same boat as us there would be no blame as it would appear that it's impossible to do better. But South Korea and Canada gots its first cases the day we got ours, both countries left us in the dust. Europe had it worse, they're now opening safely with near no cases.

    We are literally the world's worst and there's a reason for it.

    If everyone simply wore masks every time out of the house we'd be FAR better off. But somehow that's not a thing with some and we're now paying the price.

    You are free to support whomever. But COVID has been an abject failure and I don't think we're even in the 4th inning. There will be no widespread available vaccines prior to Dec. 31st. I understand the economic argument. I have lost 2/3 of my income bc it's ad-based. Nothing would help me more than a totally open economy. Except that's a recipe to ruin the econ for 5 years rather than 4 months.

    I would have sent far more money to the bottom so people didn't suffer missed rents and food. Hold all long term corp. debt for six months and keep banks afloat. That allows the entire economy to at least go in a holding patter.


    Economic pain is real and to be dealt with, no doubt. But no one is advocating keeping things shut down to hurt someone politically. No. One. Indeed had everyone followed through like NYC, the econ would be improving on its own by August. Instead we less than half-assed it and are now paying the price. I am 49 and there's no rule I will live through it if I get it, nor anyone else. So I prefer to give the vaccine time.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  15. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Dixie still waiting on the sources you quote above...
    Okay, I pulled all the sources that of course I knew existed. Now will you please get this AOC tweet that you say is everywhere. It took me 20 minutes to pull the sources you asked for and each one was exactly as I read it (bc I pulled it straight from them). I don't lie for my ends. I research and analyze for a living and get hammered if I misquote or miscite. (As in lose the job entirely).

    So I got what you asked for. Others asked for your AOC tweet. I looked back to June 1st and there was nothing. She never said that Abe. She surely did say that we should shelter longer (I didn't see it in my review, but that makes sense), but the rest is made up. There are a lot of fake tweets and they are easy to spot. I have to sort through fake and real all the time for my work.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DZ View Post
    Deaths are a lagging indicator. The latest spikes happened in the last 2-3 weeks, and since NYC had the biggest protests and yet still falling admissions/numbers, it doesn't appear to be protests that did it. It appears to be bars, restaurants, churches - indoors appears to be far more dangerous, unfortunately. The cases are rising in the sun states, AZ, TX, MS, GA, FLA, all states where people are now indoors more and heavy church states (people sing in church, it's wonderful family, hard to distance) unfortunately, ICUs are at capacity in Houston, MS, and areas of FLA.

    I hope you're right about deaths continuing down. I have my doubts. The trend, however, as Cad says, is the opposite of good, it's terrifying.

    As for the White House office, it's just a fact Abe (and of course I have links, I don't make this stuff up). It doesn't work when people are outside the White House and spread out. Obama decided things didn't work well in SARS and H1N1 and in Ebola he centralized all control in the White House to streamline everything

    This is from Foreign Policy magazine, decades old, non-political, and written in January of 2020 - before the response was so disastrous:



    So to say they were reassigned, scattered, is first - wrong, it was disbanded entirely. Second, to the extent anyone was kept on but scattered, that was the problem in the first place. The system hadn't worked well. That article was written a week after the first case, and there was no indication anything would go wrong. It went horribly wrong, and one can argue China China China all day, but the appropriate response is to assume China isn't going to do the quality work that the American infectious disease unit can do, and have it up and ready to go. They didn't.

    As for a link to the fact that the Obama admin - that had been through 3 total epidemic scares and managed them all relatively well (though each is unique) they put the Trump admin through a trial run specifically bc this scared them, we were vulnerable:

    This is from "The Hill" - which is not partisan at all (indeed John Solomon did his Biden-Ukraine work there). These are facts, backed up by documents obtained by Politico:



    As for the Cupboards being bare, Politifact (the sin qua non on balance) rates the claim mostly false. There were few N95 masks but there were never enough, nor enough money appropriated by congress (though not "bare"). Obama Admin went through 3 epidemics, of course stocks would be down. Trump admin had 3 years w/o an epidemic, saying the cupboard were bare is an indictment of Trump's admin not restocking them, if true, which it wasn't:




    I am not trying to prove you wrong. (You did ask for citations and the information). In the spirit of the work that Cad has done, and to try to cut through some of the politics, I am simply setting out the facts. There is nothing I would have liked more than to have had this handled perfectly.

    One could say that much of this was out of anyone's hands to control, and China wasn't forthcoming early enough. If the rest of the world was in the same boat as us there would be no blame as it would appear that it's impossible to do better. But South Korea and Canada gots its first cases the day we got ours, both countries left us in the dust. Europe had it worse, they're now opening safely with near no cases.

    We are literally the world's worst and there's a reason for it.

    If everyone simply wore masks every time out of the house we'd be FAR better off. But somehow that's not a thing with some and we're now paying the price.

    You are free to support whomever. But COVID has been an abject failure and I don't think we're even in the 4th inning. There will be no widespread available vaccines prior to Dec. 31st. I understand the economic argument. I have lost 2/3 of my income bc it's ad-based. Nothing would help me more than a totally open economy. Except that's a recipe to ruin the econ for 5 years rather than 4 months.

    I would have sent far more money to the bottom so people didn't suffer missed rents and food. Hold all long term corp. debt for six months and keep banks afloat. That allows the entire economy to at least go in a holding patter.


    Economic pain is real and to be dealt with, no doubt. But no one is advocating keeping things shut down to hurt someone politically. No. One. Indeed had everyone followed through like NYC, the econ would be improving on its own by August. Instead we less than half-assed it and are now paying the price. I am 49 and there's no rule I will live through it if I get it, nor anyone else. So I prefer to give the vaccine time.
    Thanks Dizzy. Good answers.

    I said it before and I'll say it again.

    Lock down, everybody and every thing for 6 weeks. Only essentials. Health care, grocery and pharmacy to put you online or phone orders in the trunk. Truck drivers to deliver to food and prescripts to those places, Skeletal staff for utilities, for prescription delivery through the mail, and Law Enforcement to pick up those idiots that just refuse to obey. They will serve the 6 weeks (or until they are up) in jail, extended to 14 days after the lock down is over.
    Every worker gets $5000, including landlords and bosses, but no corporations or companies. NO RENT for 2 months, but no payments to the banks by the landlords for two months. Utilities, cable tv, cell phone, credit cards etc get paid.
    When the 6 weeks are up, people will burst out ready to spend that money. The economy will rebound.

    We lose this season of MLB, Nascar etc, but we get ALL the college sports, the NFL and all fall, winter and spring sports. The NBA can go ahead because of their bubble/campus plan.
    All tests go to health care, people that are transported and those they live with. Their quarantine lasts until they are proven clean.
    It's not funny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DZ View Post
    Okay, I pulled all the sources that of course I knew existed. Now will you please get this AOC tweet that you say is everywhere. It took me 20 minutes to pull the sources you asked for and each one was exactly as I read it (bc I pulled it straight from them). I don't lie for my ends. I research and analyze for a living and get hammered if I misquote or miscite. (As in lose the job entirely).

    So I got what you asked for. Others asked for your AOC tweet. I looked back to June 1st and there was nothing. She never said that Abe. She surely did say that we should shelter longer (I didn't see it in my review, but that makes sense), but the rest is made up. There are a lot of fake tweets and they are easy to spot. I have to sort through fake and real all the time for my work.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-f...-idUSKBN23V32A

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    There was a Facebook post with a fake/fabricated AOC tweet. which was taken down by Facebook. But a certain segment of people continue to spew the lie as if it was real.

    Quote Originally Posted by DZ View Post
    Okay, I pulled all the sources that of course I knew existed. Now will you please get this AOC tweet that you say is everywhere. It took me 20 minutes to pull the sources you asked for and each one was exactly as I read it (bc I pulled it straight from them). I don't lie for my ends. I research and analyze for a living and get hammered if I misquote or miscite. (As in lose the job entirely).

    So I got what you asked for. Others asked for your AOC tweet. I looked back to June 1st and there was nothing. She never said that Abe. She surely did say that we should shelter longer (I didn't see it in my review, but that makes sense), but the rest is made up. There are a lot of fake tweets and they are easy to spot. I have to sort through fake and real all the time for my work.
    gobroncsgozags: "Have a great day in the podunk, crap hole known as Roslyn."

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    It's got science based. It's more like an opinion piece with some stats tossed in. And its the type of thing that misleads. Sources? not many.just some talk. Apparently you think the CDC is a solid source.
    It's apparent you didn't even read the article, or notice all the links in it to original sources. Almost nothing in the article references the CDC, save for a few small ones. The "just some talk" came from experts in their field regarding nCOV-19:

    • Purnima Madhivanan, infectious disease epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Arizona
    • Julia Marcus, epidemiologist and professor at Harvard Medical School
    • Jeffrey Shaman, epidemiologist at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
    • Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (not CDC)
    • Roxane Cohen Silver, UC Irvine professor
    • Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
    • Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota
    • Jennifer Nuzzo, epidemiologist who leads the Johns Hopkins Testing Insights Initiative at the Center for Health Security
    • Aileen Marty, infectious disease professor at Florida International University


    Are you kidding me? If that's "just some talk," then I'd sure like to know where you're getting your information. This was a very well researched article for the lay press. Try clicking the many, many links in the article rather than dismissing it outright. This article very well comports with what's being seen by the "boots on the ground."

    And, after seeing you post it repeatedly without evidence....THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT VIRAL ATTENUATION going on. There are plenty of reasons that the death rate is falling, but NONE of them have to do with attenuation. If you want to send me a journal paper (not a news item) that demonstrates viral attenuation to the degree that it's significantly altering ongoing death rates, I'd be happy to entertain it.

    I'll wait.

    (And can we not drag this thread down into politics? We were doing fine sticking to the science of the disease.)

  20. #145
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    Cad, clear space in your box. I would like to show you a couple things, run an idea by you.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  21. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bing View Post
    There was a Facebook post with a fake/fabricated AOC tweet. which was taken down by Facebook. But a certain segment of people continue to spew the lie as if it was real.
    Thank you. I suspected.

    I knew it was either wholly fake, or something said that hardly related to the takeaway.

    Amazing that a first term congresswoman with no power at all, all of 28, lives so prominently in RW media. I suspect it has something do do with the fact that she's drop dead gorgeous, while also being extreme (which is why she has no power)

    I tried to say away bc it all becomes political. But, I was inspired by Cad. Fearlessly pointing out statistical analysis.

    I can at least contribute documentation of what happened through the government process. Anyone doubt the failure should look at the statements about cases "Down to Zero," and "20K-30K," the infamous "Looks like losing 60,000), and now we're double that and I think we'll double this before wide spread vaccine. "I said slow the testing down please." "If we had less testing we'd have less cases."

    I don't care who oversaw what. I care about getting out and getting honest. That can't be done with precise analysis of what's been tried and why.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

  22. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by caduceus View Post
    It's apparent you didn't even read the article, or notice all the links in it to original sources. Almost nothing in the article references the CDC, save for a few small ones. The "just some talk" came from experts in their field regarding nCOV-19:

    • Purnima Madhivanan, infectious disease epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Arizona
    • Julia Marcus, epidemiologist and professor at Harvard Medical School
    • Jeffrey Shaman, epidemiologist at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
    • Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (not CDC)
    • Roxane Cohen Silver, UC Irvine professor
    • Crystal Watson, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
    • Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota
    • Jennifer Nuzzo, epidemiologist who leads the Johns Hopkins Testing Insights Initiative at the Center for Health Security
    • Aileen Marty, infectious disease professor at Florida International University


    Are you kidding me? If that's "just some talk," then I'd sure like to know where you're getting your information. This was a very well researched article for the lay press. Try clicking the many, many links in the article rather than dismissing it outright. This article very well comports with what's being seen by the "boots on the ground."

    And, after seeing you post it repeatedly without evidence....THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT VIRAL ATTENUATION going on. There are plenty of reasons that the death rate is falling, but NONE of them have to do with attenuation. If you want to send me a journal paper (not a news item) that demonstrates viral attenuation to the degree that it's significantly altering ongoing death rates, I'd be happy to entertain it.

    I'll wait.

    (And can we not drag this thread down into politics? We were doing fine sticking to the science of the disease.)
    I appreciate your wish to stick with science. But, it’s just that, a wish. Everything is influenced by politics. Science and scientists are not immune. Scientists without bias are as rare as any other segment of the population. In addition, the results obtained by scientists are subject to being interpreted by people with political bias as well. Just the way it is.

  23. #148
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    It was a question Cad. Re: attenuation. And yes I read the whole thing. No real data. Just opinions. Granted they are esteemed investigators. They must know something.

    But the comments on death. That is the final outcome of a disease and or therapy. It’s Theo e thing that matters in any therapy that is hard. Even with the softer markers, I cannot explain increasing cases but obviously lower mortality. Like over 2/3rd lower than peak. Some hi I attenuation . You don’t. I’m looking for a mechanism that explains that. No reason to get steam d or dogmatic when u have no answer either.

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    Remember, this is pre-hospital bed overload. Houston tore down their $17 million surge capacity hospital even while cases were climbing.

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    THis is not news. SOme states are worse and some are ( btw the same ones we knew about early in the week) getting worse. Overall though ( the whole nation) is seeing less death compared to April and May. It's what I posted earlier today. I don't think we're in a big arguement. Leave that to the politicians......... spining it any way they want. IWhen I was an NIH research fellow, when we were designing out research for various interventions, the primary outcome was athe death count. Seconary analyses when looking at other outscomes were necouraged but really could be explained in myriad ways.

    When designing further trials, I've always kept that in mind. Key to all this current work is that the data and how it's interpreted are dictated by trial design. We don't have a trail and we don't have a trial design with COVID.
    Nothing therefore is secure . much is opinion....but the one thing beyond opinion is death count. Not here to argue.those are the basic and fundamental tenants of research. the end ( for now). Best wishes to everyone.

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