Roth, Zags plan for season of uncertainty

[willandi]

I ask the question, “Am I the only one on this board that thinks like I do or is it you feel I’m a nut?

I ask because there are never any comments regarding my posts...

Nor mine. I just guess that I am too radical, even though my idea would work.

[caduceus]

New cases today:

USA: 47,341

Canada: 172

Unreal.

[caduceus]

Excellent, science-based article (but an easy read) from National Geographic about where we are, and what we need to do:

NatGeo: Here's How to Stop the Virus from Winning

[MDABE80]

Dunno about the science based but it does give a nice overview of common sense things we knew from the beginning but have ralexed on. I get the sense from the data I see daily, that because the DX was insecure from the beginning, we may have to start over using the propertesting. Trouble is, the first test were sent to us ( we actually paid for this!!) was from China. THe testing of the test kits shows a very low sensitivity and specificity.

Soldier on we did though with masks, home, distancing.and it seemed make things better. But how did we know things were "better" when the test were suboptimal...? Nobody knows.

There is a long way to go with this disease unless America buckles down and renews its efforts. HARDCORE.

Even then we can't know where we are except we're in the middle of a storm not of our making. Cad do the newer tests have an improved verifiable increases sensitivity and specificity with an increased predicitive value? Some are still swab and some are serologic. Until our tests are much better, best therapies are hard to define. We still don't know what's best or even better.

Given the uncertainties listed in this post, I think it's hard to assign any blame to this administration.this is an infection that was smuggled in and was lied about.
In my own experience, pts who died, oftentimes were assigned a COVID diagnosis but without testing. I've told the story about one of my janitors who lost his father a few weeks about. 75 yr old ukrainian man who had heart failure with some renal failure as well. He died .and when the son asked , he was told COVID got him. But review of the chart has no testing that might confirm the DX. We now know NYC deaths in the nursing homes often did the same thing..

So for me it's remains a head scratcher. We know the pronicples of defense. But the assurity of DX is still less than certain. For all of you, Mick Mick, a longtime poster just dropped a gem on the BZ basketball board. I hope you'll read it.

[caduceus]

First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

Best, =cad=

[hockeyzag]

First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

Best, =cad=

Couldn’t agree more, with all of this. This thread has been full of useful information and was being managed responsibly.

Your posts have been extremely informative Cad, very much appreciated.

Makes me proud of the many brilliant Gonzaga Alums and fans out there. We have a pretty high brow community visiting these boards.

[bballbeachbum]

First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

Best, =cad=

100% agreement with this. Cad, your posts in this thread are very much appreciated, thank you

[bballbeachbum]

I ask the question, “Am I the only one on this board that thinks like I do or is it you feel I’m a nut?

I ask because there are never any comments regarding my posts...

I do not feel you are a nut, the opposite Bogo!

[Zagceo]

It’s an election year and EVERYTHING is viewed through those lenses.

it is what it is.

looks at it like redshirt year.....maybe we get a wavier....but doubtful

[MDABE80]

First off, I see that this thread had been delegated to the basement area of the forum. A sad outcome, since 1) It's the damn offseason and there's no reason to relegate threads, 2) It's a thread of significant importance, given the current conditions, and 3) posters have been overall very good about avoiding politics or other contentious issues. And I'll add 4) I think it's been a thread that's educational with a lot of attention, and has had a vibrant discussion about Covid-19. I'm disappointed, and I would plead the moderators to consider to keep this thread in the main MBB forum for the benefit of readers. Inappropriate posts can always be deleted individually. There's no need to use a heavy hand!

Abe -- The article might not be "science based" for you and me - not original articles, but the bulk of the paper was input from epidemiologists, immunologists and public health officials. The PCR tests are largely very accurate. The antibody tests...not so much. Underwhelming specificity, meaning a large number of false positives. Swab, good. Serologic, bad. No worries though, because active viral testing is far more important. Incidence is so much more important than evidence of past infection.

Oh, I blame the federal administration almost 100%. If we had a coordinated response, we would not be dealing with this. Come on, abandon your politics and look at the evidence. They blew it on the test kits. FDA put up road blocks to even see if the disease was in our country, and halted and redirected imports of PPE. The CDC choked on the mask issue.

Stop with the politics. Pay attention to the science. You know the science of stents and anticoagulation, and coronary anatomy. It's no difference with this disease, my friend and colleague.

I already read MickMick's post, and responded. I hope you see it too.

Best, =cad=

It's got science based. It's more like an opinion piece with some stats tossed in. And its the type of thing that misleads. Sources? not many.just some talk. Apparently you think the CDC is a solid source. It's a part of the government but only to implement what the Congress tells it to. It's their charter. CDC thus, has become a political arm of who it decees to pay attention to. ROckefeller FOundation set it up and it's received fed funding along with $200 million from priovate companies ( drug companies chip in $80 million and private sources throw in $170 million. It's become more of a political organization and has strayed from its purpose.
Mybeef is attaching them to this administration when it's not. Even during the Obama years it had it's marching orders after SARS 2. committee after committee was formed by that particul administration to offer a course forward for this specifice tye of epidemic. What did CDC do? Wheat did Obam's group do? nothing.
the cupboard was actually bare!
But worse..CDC then bounght the tests.from where? China! And the sensitivity and specificity both were so low............there are unusable ( again bare cupboards).

DSHS ( the controlling agency) did nothing. Once again bare cupboards. but worse, nobocy at CDC tested the tests until COVID. And this is why I'm so damned angry.......billions spent to protect the public and nobody did their job. And nobody checked. This, there, is why I object to blaming the present group in the WH. It's goes to the prior administration. It's been turned into a political issue only because media says so. It's a failing of CDC and DSHS who are supposed to be monitoring this type of thing. unvarnished truth.

[kitzbuel]

Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?

[LTownZag]

Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?

And we have Obama to thank for that oversight! Bare cupboards!

How many other nonexistent global viruses did Obama not prevent?

[DZ]

Abe, you realize there were no COVID-19 tests before COVID-19, right?

There were no COVID tests, but there was an epidemiological team in the White House as part of the National Security Council. After responding to H1N1, SARS, Ebola, the previous administration revamped everything and moved a team of epidemiologists inside the White House for a more rapid response. This current White House disbanded the unit in 2018, as stated in this 2018 article written at the time:

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.
Ziemer’s last day was Tuesday, the same day a new Ebola outbreak was declared in Congo. He is not being replaced.

Not only was the cupboard not bare, the previous administration specifically put the incoming administration through a pandemic drill as part of the transition:

The Obama administration walked incoming Trump administration officials through a hypothetical scenario in which a pandemic worse than the 1918 Spanish flu shut down cities like Seoul and London in early 2017, Politico reported.

During the briefing, Trump administration officials were told such a pandemic would likely lead to circumstances such as shortages of ventilators and that a coordinated national response would be “paramount,” according to documents obtained by the publication.
Of the Trump administration officials present during the meeting, about 66 percent no longer serve in the White House, according to Politico.

"Thirty Trump officials attended the exercise (Cabinet and senior White House staff)," Lu added in a tweet on Monday. "But the vast majority of these officials are no longer in government."

Everyone is free to prioritize what they'd like when it comes to government and politics but the facts are the facts and we're not playing basketball or getting back to business as a nation until everyone starts dealing in facts as they actually exist. All criticism is fair so long as one starts with the right facts. Here is a link to Politifact on the point about the "cupboards" not being bare.

[MDABE80]

No I don't realize that. China had the only test and CDC bought it.

They WH didn't disband it. It was moved out of the WH. The Zeimer was offered another job but declined.

I suppose you have some reliable sources for your statements. You and/por Kitz produce something. If Ive got this wrong, I
ll retract but nothing I've read portrays your stories.

[MDABE80]

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=death+rate+in+usa+from+coronavirus

So yes the deaths are falling. Cases are increasing. It's the younger people that are getting infected but they seem to tolerate better and don't die. Either that or the virus is self attenuating. Cad's opinion on attenuation might be helpful here. Looks like it though. NB. last 3 days there's been and increase in deaths but overall the trend is good IMHO.