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Thread: Cory Kispert interview with Jim Meehan on NW Passages

  1. #1
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    Default Cory Kispert interview with Jim Meehan on NW Passages

    He's on right now - live, but you can scroll back to the beginning to hear the whole thing.

    “When I get a little money I buy books; and if any is left I buy food and clothes.”

    ~ Desiderius Erasmus

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    I wish the best for him but I personally want one more year watching him as a Zag!

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    I heard nothing in that interview that would make me believe anything other than the fact that he will be back next year.

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    Seems like he’s planning on coming back. If he is indeed getting early 2nd round feedback that is certainly a tough call. No guarantee he’s in the same position next year as he’ll be a year older and probably asked to do a bit less offensively. But shooting, size, high character is a really good combo for guys in the 25-60 range so hopefully we get him for a year and then he sneaks into the end of the first round to a contender that needs another shooter.

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    He's hearing early 2nd round. I wonder if he thinks he can improve on that for next year. I think he can but I don't know what the 2021 draft projections look like.
    "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
    -Zach Norvell Jr.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyzag View Post
    He's hearing early 2nd round. I wonder if he thinks he can improve on that for next year. I think he can but I don't know what the 2021 draft projections look like.
    Interesting on hearing early 2nd round. I have looked at several mock drafts and most don’t have him in the top 60. The ones that do have him going in the draft has him going late in the 2nd round. I wonder where the disconnect is.

    Great interview. He is a class act. The Zags are clearly better with him because of the tangibles and intangibles. I hope he comes back for one more year.

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    There is special financial incentive for Kispert, Ayayi, and Petrusev to consider coming back next season even if they have already been guaranteed 2nd round picks by NBA teams. This is because of the way NBA rookie contracts are structured and the effect of the COVID pandemic revenue drop.

    If Corey specifically comes back and his draft stock stays the exact same from this year to next, he will stand to make more money than the normal salary increase for the same pick.

    I will preface this by saying that I follow the NBA side of the draft much more closely than the college side so here are some of the individual player incentives to go back to college assuming they don't regress. Many of these numbers are approximated based on previous salary cap information and insights from cap experts on how the NBA might respond to revenue loss.

    For anybody interested in the super technical NBA financials:

    Corey mentioned that they gave him an early 2nd round draft grade. Generally, teams can be a bit optimistic on these grades, so let's say for the sake of argument he goes mid second round at 45. Because of this year's coronavirus season suspension, NBA revenue is predicted to drop every team's salary cap from about 109 million to about 101 million according to John Hollinger. This 7.34% drop is the sole factor in determining first year rookie salaries in this upcoming draft.

    Assuming the league does not do any type of cap smoothing to solve the revenue loss, this means that players drafted this upcoming year will be paid less than rookies from last year. Normally, the number one overall pick in this upcoming draft would see about a 3% salary increase, but because of the lost revenue from COVID, they will instead lose 3.2 million over their entire rookie contract. This number will be less dramatic for lower picks, but it would also severely affect anybody taken in the 2nd round. Normally, picks 31-45 would get some variation of a 3 year 4.5million dollar contract with only some or all of the years guaranteed. In this year's draft given the financial strains on teams, they will be less likely to give out guaranteed years and more 2nd rounders will likely be getting closer to the minimum or picks will just be used on draft and stash players. If Corey gets picked at 45 this year, he could potentially sign around a 3 year 4 million dollar contract.

    Once the COVID vaccine is developed and ticket revenue is reintroduced, the salary cap could jump back up to 110-113 million which is a little more than this past season. This jump from 101 to 113 will be significant for players entering the draft because that 11.88% spike will apply to draftee base salaries. So not only will they be making more than players in this upcoming draft, but every player drafted in the first round will be making 11.88 percent more. This is an unprecedented jump as a normal growth year would only see about a 3% rise. As for second rounders, the cap situation will be almost fully back to normal in 2021-2022, so a 2nd rounder contract factoring in normal salary cap growth in the future would be about 3 years 4.6 million dollars.

    Say the Zags win the championship this upcoming season and Kispert's draft stock goes up from early 2nd round to late 1st round. Corey would then go from $4.6 million as a 2nd rounder to a $10.3 million contract with more guaranteed money at pick number 30. For players like Gonzaga's Corey Kispert or Villanova's Saddiq Bey, it almost makes more sense to go back to college if they can live without the money for one more year and assume the risk.


    Summary: Assuming a player doesn't hurt their draft stock, 1st round picks can add an extra 8% on top of normal rookie contract growth by going back to college this season. 2nd round picks can likely see a 15-30% increase in rookie salaries if they go back to college. If Corey specifically can work his way up to the 30th pick, he can net an extra $1 million on top of his $5.5 million pay bump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zag1203 View Post
    There is special financial incentive for Kispert, Ayayi, and Petrusev to consider coming back next season even if they have already been guaranteed 2nd round picks by NBA teams. This is because of the way NBA rookie contracts are structured and the effect of the COVID pandemic revenue drop.

    If Corey specifically comes back and his draft stock stays the exact same from this year to next, he will stand to make more money than the normal salary increase for the same pick.

    I will preface this by saying that I follow the NBA side of the draft much more closely than the college side so here are some of the individual player incentives to go back to college assuming they don't regress. Many of these numbers are approximated based on previous salary cap information and insights from cap experts on how the NBA might respond to revenue loss.

    For anybody interested in the super technical NBA financials:

    Corey mentioned that they gave him an early 2nd round draft grade. Generally, teams can be a bit optimistic on these grades, so let's say for the sake of argument he goes mid second round at 45. Because of this year's coronavirus season suspension, NBA revenue is predicted to drop every team's salary cap from about 109 million to about 101 million according to John Hollinger. This 7.34% drop is the sole factor in determining first year rookie salaries in this upcoming draft.

    Assuming the league does not do any type of cap smoothing to solve the revenue loss, this means that players drafted this upcoming year will be paid less than rookies from last year. Normally, the number one overall pick in this upcoming draft would see about a 3% salary increase, but because of the lost revenue from COVID, they will instead lose 3.2 million over their entire rookie contract. This number will be less dramatic for lower picks, but it would also severely affect anybody taken in the 2nd round. Normally, picks 31-45 would get some variation of a 3 year 4.5million dollar contract with only some or all of the years guaranteed. In this year's draft given the financial strains on teams, they will be less likely to give out guaranteed years and more 2nd rounders will likely be getting closer to the minimum or picks will just be used on draft and stash players. If Corey gets picked at 45 this year, he could potentially sign around a 3 year 4 million dollar contract.

    Once the COVID vaccine is developed and ticket revenue is reintroduced, the salary cap could jump back up to 110-113 million which is a little more than this past season. This jump from 101 to 113 will be significant for players entering the draft because that 11.88% spike will apply to draftee base salaries. So not only will they be making more than players in this upcoming draft, but every player drafted in the first round will be making 11.88 percent more. This is an unprecedented jump as a normal growth year would only see about a 3% rise. As for second rounders, the cap situation will be almost fully back to normal in 2021-2022, so a 2nd rounder contract factoring in normal salary cap growth in the future would be about 3 years 4.6 million dollars.

    Say the Zags win the championship this upcoming season and Kispert's draft stock goes up from early 2nd round to late 1st round. Corey would then go from $4.6 million as a 2nd rounder to a $10.3 million contract with more guaranteed money at pick number 30. For players like Gonzaga's Corey Kispert or Villanova's Saddiq Bey, it almost makes more sense to go back to college if they can live without the money for one more year and assume the risk.


    Summary: Assuming a player doesn't hurt their draft stock, 1st round picks can add an extra 8% on top of normal rookie contract growth by going back to college this season. 2nd round picks can likely see a 15-30% increase in rookie salaries if they go back to college. If Corey specifically can work his way up to the 30th pick, he can net an extra $1 million on top of his $5.5 million pay bump.
    Zag1203 - You obviously know much more about this than I do. But this is an excellent analysis and very helpful. Who do you think is laying all of this out for Kispert when he has not hired an agent?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsnider View Post
    Zag1203 - You obviously know much more about this than I do. But this is an excellent analysis and very helpful. Who do you think is laying all of this out for Kispert when he has not hired an agent?
    Players have multiple resources during the process including their parents/family, the NBA undergraduate advisory committee, and the head coach/compliance director to a certain extent. Corey is a smart guy too. I wouldn't be worried about him being uninformed during this process. You can read up on the whole 'testing the waters' process here https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/com...NF_NBAMemo.pdf

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    Quote Originally Posted by jsnider View Post
    Interesting on hearing early 2nd round. I have looked at several mock drafts and most don’t have him in the top 60. The ones that do have him going in the draft has him going late in the 2nd round. I wonder where the disconnect is.

    Great interview. He is a class act. The Zags are clearly better with him because of the tangibles and intangibles. I hope he comes back for one more year.
    I have the same question. Interesting. Projections are simply “experts,” whereas team representatives presumably have first-hand knowledge. That said, people tend to hear what they want to hear. I think late second round.

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    Maybe I heard what I wanted to hear, but I think I'm pretty good at reading between the lines. Using this skill, I predict that Mr Kispert will be back at Gonzaga playing basketball next season. Looking forward to is continued growth. He should be really good this upcoming season.
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    Maybe I heard what I wanted to hear, but I think I'm pretty good at reading between the lines. Using this skill, I predict that Mr Kispert will be back at Gonzaga playing basketball next season. Looking forward to is continued growth. He should be really good this upcoming season.
    I agree, Bornie. The situation is way too fluid, and I expect many NBA teams will make serious mistakes in judging those in the draft. Corey's the kind of player that is mature enough to step in and contribute from Day 1, most likely from the bench. As a result, that maturity will be held against him, as teams look at a player's "potential".

    Corey will come back, work on his Masters degree, and get ready for a career in pro basketball, after the first week in April 2021.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasZagFan View Post
    Corey will come back, work on his Masters degree, and get ready for a career in pro basketball, after the first week in April 2021.
    I believe Corey is a non-redshirt Senior for the upcoming 2020-2021 season, or did he already get his undergraduate degree in three years?

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    Quote Originally Posted by zagmeister View Post
    I believe Corey is a non-redshirt Senior for the upcoming 2020-2021 season, or did he already get his undergraduate degree in three years?
    He graduated this spring in 3 years. Probably took summer classes. Sharp kid, hard worker. Him already graduating is my biggest concern that he leaves early. I think he is the most likely to be drafted of the 3, and I'm not sure that if he stays he would be drafted any higher next year. Hopefully the chance to play for a national championship is enough of a pull to bring him back. There's always a chance of coming back and something happening to the NCAA season and basically wasting a year of earning potential for nothing though. Lot of unknowns right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bdmiller7 View Post
    He graduated this spring in 3 years. Probably took summer classes. Sharp kid, hard worker. Him already graduating is my biggest concern that he leaves early. I think he is the most likely to be drafted of the 3, and I'm not sure that if he stays he would be drafted any higher next year. Hopefully the chance to play for a national championship is enough of a pull to bring him back. There's always a chance of coming back and something happening to the NCAA season and basically wasting a year of earning potential for nothing though. Lot of unknowns right now.
    true, but he probably has to decide on coming back, or not, before the draft. If things go south in a hurry, as this last week+ will determine (either there is a second wave or it is mostly in the past), and the deadline to withdraw his name is gone too, they might cancel the NBA season as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    true, but he probably has to decide on coming back, or not, before the draft. If things go south in a hurry, as this last week+ will determine (either there is a second wave or it is mostly in the past), and the deadline to withdraw his name is gone too, they might cancel the NBA season as well.
    He definitely has to decide whether to come back or not before the draft. I just have more faith in their being pro sports than college sports. I think both happen, but college is more likely to be cancelled than pro. If he is a pro and has a partial season he still gets some pay, if hes in college and has a partial season i dont see where anything has been gained by staying. I still think he comes back and the season happens, I just think of the 3 he is in the best position to leave now.

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