The incubation period isn't just a uniform 7 days. The median is 4-5, and 97% of people who will be symptomatic are experiencing symptoms by 11 days.
But even that is irrelevant, or not particularly helpful at knowing if the infected number (overall contagion) is growing or shrinking. Since we aren't doing wide scale testing and don't have randomized sample tests or convenient and free/cheap tests, the best indicator of the trajectory of the virus is basically how many people die 20-25days from a given date.
That obviously makes it very hard to know what is going on today, but such is life in a society without wider scale testing.
There is some evidence for updated daily changes by looking at the percent of tests that come back positive. Just keep in mind that the overall number of tests has been growing, and the population getting tested isn't a random sampling.
I think we will actually start to definitively know the effects of a given major change in society about 25 days after that change, based on deaths. (Maybe 2 weeks after if one had access to hospital and hospital ICU admit numbers). Outdoor events seem far far safer than indoor, so I hope the nice weather will be enjoyed safely by all.
But even that is irrelevant, or not particularly helpful at knowing if the infected number (overall contagion) is growing or shrinking. Since we aren't doing wide scale testing and don't have randomized sample tests or convenient and free/cheap tests, the best indicator of the trajectory of the virus is basically how many people die 20-25days from a given date.
That obviously makes it very hard to know what is going on today, but such is life in a society without wider scale testing.
There is some evidence for updated daily changes by looking at the percent of tests that come back positive. Just keep in mind that the overall number of tests has been growing, and the population getting tested isn't a random sampling.
I think we will actually start to definitively know the effects of a given major change in society about 25 days after that change, based on deaths. (Maybe 2 weeks after if one had access to hospital and hospital ICU admit numbers). Outdoor events seem far far safer than indoor, so I hope the nice weather will be enjoyed safely by all.
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