‘Plateauing is not enough’: State health officials say return to school depends on ‘sustained decline’
UPDATED: Sat., Aug. 15, 2020
By Arielle Dreher
arielled@spokesman.com
(509) 459-5467
The number of new coronavirus cases is plateauing throughout the state, suggests a new modeling report published Friday .
When new cases of the virus are broken down by age groups, however, the number of newly infected people older than 40 rose in Spokane County through the end of July.
While people in their 40s make up 11% of the population, it accounts for nearly 14% of the county’s COVID-19 cases. Cases in residents over the age of 50 have also risen in recent weeks.
The Institute for Disease Modeling report used data through the end of July. In the first weeks of August, however, case counts have tapered. Hospitalizations have also eased this week after spikes earlier this month.
The most recent seven-day average of new cases reported per day in Spokane County is 69, according to state data. This rolling average is down from the end of July, when Spokane County was averaging 85 cases per day.
On Friday, the Spokane Regional Health District confirmed 46 new COVID-19 cases.
Ten Spokane County residents died this week from COVID-19, and 95 residents have died from the virus so far. There are 70 patients hospitalized in Spokane hospitals with the virus, including 38 county residents.
Despite the number of cases beginning to level off, it won’t be enough to get students back in classrooms this fall, state health officials warned on Friday.
“Plateauing is not enough to keep the epidemic under control,” the Friday situation report says. “We must transition to a state of sustained decline in new cases as has taken place in Yakima.”
The Institute for Disease Modeling also released a detailed modeling report for reopening schools, based on King County data, on Friday.
In brief, the report predicted that putting students in classrooms would result in a jump in COVID-19 cases.
“We should expect cases, and we should expect outbreaks,” said Lacy Fehrenbach, deputy secretary for the COVID-19 response at the state Department of Health.
She noted most counties should not embrace a return to school for in-person learning because incidence rates remain too high.
Spokane County’s incidence rate is 201 cases per 100,000 residents in the two weeks from July 26 to Aug. 8. King County’s incidence rate is 86 cases per 100,000 residents.