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Thread: Baseball

  1. #1
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    I don't know where to put this so people can see it. I'm not trying to stir up a can of hornet's nest either. It is the first glimmer of a mirror at the end of the tunnel.

    https://sports.mynorthwest.com/84093...n-encouraging/
    It's not funny.

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    No worries Will. Probably the way it’ll be new. New cases dropping Fast. Can’t be locked down forever..

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    I was really hoping to not get into the specifics/cases, but one question that is relevant to all this I would like answered.

    From the time one is exposed, how long is it before it shows up on a test? If the NBA players are being allowed back in, once they get tested and are negative, do they need a two week quarantine at that point?
    If so, they need to get them all back and into an isolated situation, maybe a hotel with 2 to a room and room service also being tested. The logistics become mind boggling.
    It's not funny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    I was really hoping to not get into the specifics/cases, but one question that is relevant to all this I would like answered.

    From the time one is exposed, how long is it before it shows up on a test? If the NBA players are being allowed back in, once they get tested and are negative, do they need a two week quarantine at that point?
    If so, they need to get them all back and into an isolated situation, maybe a hotel with 2 to a room and room service also being tested. The logistics become mind boggling.
    I would look to information from State or local public health officials. It varies.
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    It was said there is a 2 week period called incubation time. With all the new data though, I suspect that time will be altered for many reasons not the least of which is the health of the new host infected. As we know now, some healthy people ( under 60-65, no underlying disease and in otherwise good health) have no symptoms despite being zero positive. Furthermore., the prevalan e of this particular virus in the population isn’t known for sure and the sensitivity and specificity of the different t sets are not know. The tests used early were purchased free m China and only had true positives det Fred 30% of the time.

    No fighting over oddball ideas. This is the data from Feb-March.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    I was really hoping to not get into the specifics/cases, but one question that is relevant to all this I would like answered.

    From the time one is exposed, how long is it before it shows up on a test? If the NBA players are being allowed back in, once they get tested and are negative, do they need a two week quarantine at that point?
    If so, they need to get them all back and into an isolated situation, maybe a hotel with 2 to a room and room service also being tested. The logistics become mind boggling.
    https://www.goodrx.com/blog/coronavi...molecular-test



    There are 2 main types of tests and they look for different things. Exposure shows up first (1-5 days but I’ve seen this range extend further in some articles) via molecular (DNA) tests, and a little later (sounds like 1-3 weeks) on antibody tests, which are not looking for actively contagious people.

    Active virus genetic tests (called molecular tests) look for the presence of this virus. It tests using reverse-transcription of Polymerase chain reaction. (RT-PCR). Basically, is the genetic material of this virus present on the swab we stuck in your nose?

    Antibody or serology tests look for the presence of antibodies which your immune system would only have produced if it ever fought this virus, and will hang on to them afterward.

    It sounds like the first type (genetic) tests for active infection. If you’ve quarantined for 48-96hr before taking it, then test negative, it’s extremely unlikely (couldn’t find a %) that there is a yet-to-be-measured infection in you.

    The second type of test, for antibodies, shows if your immune system fought this in the past. Presence of antibodies seems to make people immune to reinfection, at least in the short term. So being positive for antibodies and negative for molecular DNA (Rudy Gobert, Tom Hanks, Boris Johnson) would be the best of both.

    (Note there are also CRISPR and Antigen tests being approved, a semi related topic worth googling)

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    Living in SC, what bothers me is that people hear our governor speak and now people are disregarding “social distancing” and not wearing face masks as if everything is back to normal. We had an increase of 1000 people testing positive from last week, which is nearly a 20% increase. The death rate went up 10+% too...as medical doctors are stating, this virus isn’t going away and will gain its “second wind” in late summer/early fall. BUT because of how money runs politics and the world, these MD’s will be ignored so that people will not be afraid to “venture out” as if life is once again normal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    https://www.goodrx.com/blog/coronavi...molecular-test



    There are 2 main types of tests and they look for different things. Exposure shows up first (1-5 days but I’ve seen this range extend further in some articles) via molecular (DNA) tests, and a little later (sounds like 1-3 weeks) on antibody tests, which are not looking for actively contagious people.

    Active virus genetic tests (called molecular tests) look for the presence of this virus. It tests using reverse-transcription of Polymerase chain reaction. (RT-PCR). Basically, is the genetic material of this virus present on the swab we stuck in your nose?

    Antibody or serology tests look for the presence of antibodies which your immune system would only have produced if it ever fought this virus, and will hang on to them afterward.

    It sounds like the first type (genetic) tests for active infection. If you’ve quarantined for 48-96hr before taking it, then test negative, it’s extremely unlikely (couldn’t find a %) that there is a yet-to-be-measured infection in you.

    The second type of test, for antibodies, shows if your immune system fought this in the past. Presence of antibodies seems to make people immune to reinfection, at least in the short term. So being positive for antibodies and negative for molecular DNA (Rudy Gobert, Tom Hanks, Boris Johnson) would be the best of both.

    (Note there are also CRISPR and Antigen tests being approved, a semi related topic worth googling)
    Thank you, so probably 48-96 hours rather than the 14 days is what they would be doing, with continual testing. If this could become something of a standard, the possibility of reopening becomes almost imaginable.
    It's not funny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    Living in SC, what bothers me is that people hear our governor speak and now people are disregarding “social distancing” and not wearing face masks as if everything is back to normal. We had an increase of 1000 people testing positive from last week, which is nearly a 20% increase. The death rate went up 10+% too...as medical doctors are stating, this virus isn’t going away and will gain its “second wind” in late summer/early fall. BUT because of how money runs politics and the world, these MD’s will be ignored so that people will not be afraid to “venture out” as if life is once again normal.
    It seems, almost, as if an effort to attain a herd immunity is being made, willingly or not.
    It's not funny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    It seems, almost, as if an effort to attain a herd immunity is being made, willingly or not.
    There's really no other option for the USA.

    The question now is how best to tinker with the variables within our control to make our path to herd immunity as safe as possible.

    The virus is (and has been for ~8-10 weeks) too widespread in our society to isolate its carriers.

    We won't do Chinese style totalitarian lockdowns or invasive tracing of South Korea or Singapore.

    The whole idea of flattening the curve was not to prevent reaching herd immunity, but to reach it over a longer time horizon with a lower peak week/month.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Thank you, so probably 48-96 hours rather than the 14 days is what they would be doing, with continual testing. If this could become something of a standard, the possibility of reopening becomes almost imaginable.
    Your question is a really good one, and I have been researching it but unable to answer it.

    As I understand you, you are not asking about the incubation time (lag between exposure and reporting symptoms from your infection) but about the delay between exposure and having enough virus in your body for it to show on a swab/test (even before you notice symptoms of illness as your body fights back).

    Since the median symptom incubation is 5 days (95% of people no more than 6 days) and the body isn't symptomatically fighting a virus until after the virus has been present, it *seems* that the lag between exposure and positive testing would be at least a day shorter than the formal incubation (onset of symptoms). So no more than 4.8 days in 95% of people.

    https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2...licly-reported

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Your question is a really good one, and I have been researching it but unable to answer it.

    As I understand you, you are not asking about the incubation time (lag between exposure and reporting symptoms from your infection) but about the delay between exposure and having enough virus in your body for it to show on a swab/test (even before you notice symptoms of illness as your body fights back).

    Since the median symptom incubation is 5 days (95% of people no more than 6 days) and the body isn't symptomatically fighting a virus until after the virus has been present, it *seems* that the lag between exposure and positive testing would be at least a day shorter than the formal incubation (onset of symptoms). So no more than 4.8 days in 95% of people.

    https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2...licly-reported
    Yes. My question was specifically, how long do athletes, staff, and film crews etc. need to be in isolation before there is any degree of certainly that there are no asymptomatic carriers, understanding that an absolute is not possible.
    That will be the standard needed for the NBA to BEGIN resumption of practice, hopefully leading towards an ending to last season and a beginning of next. A few of the players have been allowed back onto the practice courts.
    The same for a possible beginning of a new spring training in MLB in June with an eye towards possible games starting in July.
    It also must include Hotel staff, including food preparation, being willing to isolate for the months required, perhaps a rolling staff with new quarantines for staff as they return from a monthly break, a 4 day weekend. It also will require a method of replenishment of supplies and food products that won't re-introduce infection back into the premises.

    IF those things can be worked out successfully, there MAY be a ray of hope that Universities and Colleges see a platform to allow themselves to move forward. As I said in a different thread, the safest way would be to allow only the athletes back on campus, maintaining social distancing between sports and with each participating school having to abide by NCAA guidelines along those lines. All schoolwork would be completed online.
    It would be a way for NCAA sports to continue making money until such time as it becomes safe to gradually revert back to the previous system. They could even have fans allowed in, with each seat being a minimum of 6', or more, away from any other seat, and each game would have a lottery to dispense the tickets. Admissions would be by a pre-scheduled time table, at different gates, again to ensure social distancing. A Kennel club with 1/6 of the students would still be better than none.
    It's not funny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    It seems, almost, as if an effort to attain a herd immunity is being made, willingly or not.
    What bothers me is that the Governor could easily require wearing of “face masks” by everyone when going to/gathering in public locations. He touts wash your hands and keep social distancing and all will be well...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    What bothers me is that the Governor could easily require wearing of “face masks” by everyone when going to/gathering in public locations. He touts wash your hands and keep social distancing and all will be well...
    And, the aforementioned varying requirements state to state because "It is like having a swimming pool with a peeing section".
    It's not funny.

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    With your question refashioned Will, nobody knows right now. That answer is coming but we don’t have a large e ough data base right now. Plus with the varying tests being used by competing groups, it’ll take a bit of time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Yes. My question was specifically, how long do athletes, staff, and film crews etc. need to be in isolation before there is any degree of certainly that there are no asymptomatic carriers, understanding that an absolute is not possible.
    That will be the standard needed for the NBA to BEGIN resumption of practice, hopefully leading towards an ending to last season and a beginning of next. A few of the players have been allowed back onto the practice courts.
    ]

    It seems like you may be conflating “asymptotic” and “presymptomatic” with the time period, I don’t know if there’s a word for it, when someone has already internalized the virus, but the virus hasn’t replicated sufficiently for a test to note it, let alone for the infected person to feel physical symptoms.

    For example, if a sick person coughed at you and you internalized some level of the virus, you wouldn’t instantly be symptomatic (that’s the median 4-5 day incubation) and likewise you presumably wouldn’t yet produce a positive test, despite being a very new carrier with a viral replication beginning in your system.

    I can’t find specifically the time between internalizing the virus and having enough replicated and present in your system to test positive on a nasal or throat swab. I’d imagine for 90% of people it’s between 12 and 72 hrs, but that’s a guess based on the incubation time for symptoms. A more sensitive test and lab procedures could likely ID a smaller and newer viral load, but also might have a larger percent of false positives.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    ]

    It seems like you may be conflating “asymptotic” and “presymptomatic” with the time period, I don’t know if there’s a word for it, when someone has already internalized the virus, but the virus hasn’t replicated sufficiently for a test to note it, let alone for the infected person to feel physical symptoms.

    For example, if a sick person coughed at you and you internalized some level of the virus, you wouldn’t instantly be symptomatic (that’s the median 4-5 day incubation) and likewise you presumably wouldn’t yet produce a positive test, despite being a very new carrier with a viral replication beginning in your system.

    I can’t find specifically the time between internalizing the virus and having enough replicated and present in your system to test positive on a nasal or throat swab. I’d imagine for 90% of people it’s between 12 and 72 hrs, but that’s a guess based on the incubation time for symptoms. A more sensitive test and lab procedures could likely ID a smaller and newer viral load, but also might have a larger percent of false positives.
    I'm not really sure of the right word, or if it even matters.

    The NBA is starting to open up the facilities. There will be at least 15 players plus coaches, training staff, etc. They need to be able to test and have a quarantine to ensure that none are positive. What do they have to do to make the best effort that the team not become infected?
    Baseball is considering starting another training camp sometime in June. Many speculate that there may be as many as 50 players, the 40 man roster and 10 other minor leaguers available, plus coaching staff etc.
    What do they need to be able to do to ensure that the team, and the competition remain healthy?
    It's not funny.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Yes. My question was specifically, how long do athletes, staff, and film crews etc. need to be in isolation before there is any degree of certainly that there are no asymptomatic carriers, understanding that an absolute is not possible.
    That will be the standard needed for the NBA to BEGIN resumption of practice, hopefully leading towards an ending to last season and a beginning of next. A few of the players have been allowed back onto the practice courts.
    The same for a possible beginning of a new spring training in MLB in June with an eye towards possible games starting in July.
    It also must include Hotel staff, including food preparation, being willing to isolate for the months required, perhaps a rolling staff with new quarantines for staff as they return from a monthly break, a 4 day weekend. It also will require a method of replenishment of supplies and food products that won't re-introduce infection back into the premises.

    IF those things can be worked out successfully, there MAY be a ray of hope that Universities and Colleges see a platform to allow themselves to move forward. As I said in a different thread, the safest way would be to allow only the athletes back on campus, maintaining social distancing between sports and with each participating school having to abide by NCAA guidelines along those lines. All schoolwork would be completed online.
    It would be a way for NCAA sports to continue making money until such time as it becomes safe to gradually revert back to the previous system. They could even have fans allowed in, with each seat being a minimum of 6', or more, away from any other seat, and each game would have a lottery to dispense the tickets. Admissions would be by a pre-scheduled time table, at different gates, again to ensure social distancing. A Kennel club with 1/6 of the students would still be better than none.
    Very difficult to figure out right now. The Bundesliga in Germany is trying to open and one of their teams, Dynamo Dresden, just had two players test positive despite being in isolation over a month. That just caused the whole team to go into another two week lockdown, causing several games to be delayed before they can even start up.


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  20. #20
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    As far as schools allowing just athletes on campus, not a shot.

    My daughter is going to Tennessee this fall. They have a plan for starting classes and bringing students on campus but no plan for sports announced yet. And this is SEC FOOTBALL.


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  21. #21
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    The latest on the MLB and their continuing efforts to have a season: https://sports.mynorthwest.com/84136...b-plan-return/

    The article about the referred to antibody test from the above article: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...-mlb-employees
    It's not funny.

  22. #22
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    "First CRISPR test for the coronavirus approved in the United States"


    https://www.nature.com/articles/d415...489a2-45349030
    It's not funny.

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