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Thread: Covid Discussion

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by GU69 View Post
    This is a fascinating image. What is the source? How accurate are its percentages? What's the transmission probability from without mask to without mask?
    Distance between people and length of time spent with them matters a great deal as well.

  2. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by GU69 View Post
    This is a fascinating image. What is the source? How accurate are its percentages? What's the transmission probability from without mask to without mask?
    I don't know the answer, but that graphic and its probabilities are massively oversimplified and ignore important things.

    For instance, one's contagious is highly variable depending on if you just contracted COVID, have had it for 3 days, or have had it for 3 weeks.

  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    I don't know the answer, but that graphic and its probabilities are massively oversimplified and ignore important things.

    For instance, one's contagious is highly variable depending on if you just contracted COVID, have had it for 3 days, or have had it for 3 weeks.
    The source of that image was that bastion of knowledge, the internet. It is just one of many. How accurate it is depends on so many factors, but the idea is that wearing a mask helps, both parties wearing a mask helps more.

    Here is another bit of internet wisdom on protecting ones self in contact:
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  4. #204
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    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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  6. #206
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    From the San Francisco Chronical detailing how the cases of Covid have risen since the loosening of the stay at home restrictions.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  7. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    From the San Francisco Chronical detailing how the cases of Covid have risen since the loosening of the stay at home restrictions.
    That chart is woefully incomplete. It’s simply a raw number of cases. There has more than likely been a tremendous increase in testing resulting in more positive results. It doesn’t show increase or decrease in hospitalization or deaths.

    If you are looking for a reason to be scared you can find a graph to confirm your fears.

  8. #208
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    “In states such as Tennessee and Florida, where lockdowns are ending, infection rates are declining, not increasing, as JPMorgan Chase found, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” Rising case counts, where they occur, have more to do with increases in testing capacity than renewed outbreaks.“ City-Journal

    The states that have taken a more aggressive reopening policy are doing way better than fear mongers in the media wanted them too. Remember the headlines. “Georgia Experiments in Human Sacrifice “? Predictions of body bags in the street just haven’t come to fruition much to the dismay of some folks. We should be celebrating the slow recovery of our lives.

    This virus is a terrible thing. We’ve lost some precious people. But, fear mongering has been an unfortunate part of the reporting. And a lot of it is political.

  9. #209
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    https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-...h-compilation/

    THis is a very authoratative compilation of corona . Its recent but it's got more facts than any other I've seen. It takes a while plow through the data but it's a clarification of the Johns Hopkins info to date. Hopkins has stayed away from the politics and slanted views engendered by the CDC collection of facts, non facts and confusing facts.

    As it turns out, things are getting better in the overall. Not all places are but most are. Still obfuscating are the deaths which , at least for the first month, were and continue to be confusing. Sick people already picked off by Covid cassified as "COVD killed them" when COVID was the last straw to end an older life ( Nursing home types already sicker than hell or they wouldn't be in a nursing home) plagued byt already present disease or older people who had immunodeficiency as part of aging ( Our immunity drops off quite a big with age), and not to forget that much of the NJ and NY cases were given the DX but never had a test confirming Corona but "thought to be" a victim of the virus.

    THen come the unreliability of the tests, with poor sensitivity, specificity and that leads to substandard predictive value...... THen comes the major additional funding if the DX on your certificate read Corona........$13 K more, and $39 K more if placed on a ventilator.

    And thencomes the boats with 1000 beds and only 10% of the beds were used. THe media has been a trainwreck this entire time./to the point wheere nobody knows the real numbers. Hopkins is closest to reality though but even they admit their info has liitations.
    COmforting to know that the under 60 yrs old crew has a lesser chance of getting Covid than the Flu.

    Anyway, make up your own minds. Draw you r own conclusions...Best wishes and good luck. A word: do not let anyone tell you what to think. Surely do not let anyone tell you whatever based on media or weak databases.

    I have hopes that this will just mutate and go away as it's denied a host. SARS did that. Masks, distance , wash hands, etc. It may not help a ton but it won't hurt. I think it helps.

  10. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    That chart is woefully incomplete. It’s simply a raw number of cases. There has more than likely been a tremendous increase in testing resulting in more positive results. It doesn’t show increase or decrease in hospitalization or deaths.

    If you are looking for a reason to be scared you can find a graph to confirm your fears.
    I've (generally) been more worried about COVID than Mark, and expected (expect) it to be a bigger loss of life than he did. That said, I agree with Mark 100% that this graph alone is close to meaningless since it doesn't say how many tests were being given, or to whom (random sample? all patients admitted to hospitals? evenly distributed across these counties per-capita?). The story of that graph alone could be as basic as that the Alameda county health department had a very very small testing system in place, and has been rapidly expanding their tests per day much faster than other nearby counties.

    The hospitalization numbers and deaths number (3-4weeks out) are much more indicative of the rate of spread, not the rate of test-taking.

  11. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post

    I have hopes that this will just mutate and go away as it's denied a host. SARS did that. Masks, distance , wash hands, etc. It may not help a ton but it won't hurt. I think it helps.
    SARS didn't mutate and go away. It only ever existed in humans for about 200 days in 8,000 people.

    Its carriers were all traced and isolated, then either cured (their bodies killing off the virus) or died in hospitalization, snuffing out the virus from infecting others. This is how COVID has been handled in New Zealand or Taiwan for example. 7 and 44 days in those 2 places now with no new cases, but it didn't "mutate and go away".

    This was made easier by the fact that SARS presents with violent symptoms in 24-72 hours, and only 8,000 people were ever infected. 9% of them died.
    It also appears that SARS was far deadlier than COVID-19 but less contagious. It literally killed off its hosts (or alerted its hosts to seek isolation or help) much faster than COVID-19.



    78% of the NYC COVID deaths have had positive COVID lab tests. The other 22%, the probable category, did not get tested but had close contact with COVID infected people, and presented with COVID symptoms. Even if literally every single one of these "probable" deaths were NOT COVID, and none of the thousands of other NYC excess mortality deaths were COVID, NYC could only be over counting by 22%. And again, that would be if there wasn't a single person who died of COVID from the "never tested, but probable" category.

  12. #212
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    https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-yor...d=hp_lead_pos6

    And right on schedule, this virus is dying out in the worst infected state ( New York). If you all remember I said it would be a gonner withing 3 months, SOme remains but this does show the usual behavior of an epidemic. This is America. Masks, distance and other maneuvers seem to be working.in NY anyway. Might well be that the oldsters and other predisposed groups have died off (Sounds harsh but it's usually what happens,,,with viral mutation.

    Let's play ball!!

  13. #213
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    I am going to have to agree with Ltown on this one, SARS did not mutate and go away. According to the quote below from a Lancet article from early March:
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...129-8/fulltext
    "The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 resulted in more than 8000 cases and 800 deaths(worldwide)... By interrupting all human-to-human transmission, SARS was effectively eradicated...SARS was eventually contained by means of syndromic surveillance, prompt isolation of patients, strict enforcement of quarantine of all contacts, and in some areas top-down enforcement of community quarantine. By contrast, by Feb 28, 2020, within a matter of 2 months since the beginning of the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), more than 82 000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported with more than 2800 deaths."
    Sadly today 5.8 million cases globally, 360K deaths, with over 100K deaths in the US.

  14. #214
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    There SARS l and SARS ll. Which are you referring to?? Be clear please..

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    In 2003 SARS mysteriously disappeared. There was never a agreed reason for it to just go away . WHO ( and Lancet which is a very good journal) claim isolation etc ( no mention of masks), hand washing and distancing did the trick. It looks like nobody knows for sure why the viral infections simply stopped. I’d have to guess both mutation and public health measures worked. We worked o that 17 years ago and back then mitation was was the explanation. When an RNA virus changes, so does mortality as there generally aren't victims.....so it just goes away.

    Back then WHO never had much to say about it other than it just stopped. RNA viruses such as this do change and we know it can change 40 times in a meer 2 days. No matter what the current Lancet article says,....nowadays Im sure they give credit to isolationmeasures but that what they say now. Likely it's both. Ltown knows very little. Without giving others credit (which is a big no no on this site) he would have you believe he's the source of his statements.

    Looking back 17 years ago, mutation was the agreed upon mechanism. We're in a different era.....ask yourself this: what eveidence from back then was there or is there now that mere isolation was responsible. It was an idea.kinda like staying away from people with colds. Never proven though. Just a common sense idea sorta like distancing of 6 ft. Why not 4, 8, etc.? Nobody knows. It's just a common sense idea based on droplets distances when one speaks, coughs, etc.

    Sorta like COVID being infective on a surface. This idea has generated wiping down everything/. Does it work? who knows. ON a hard surface, data shows the virus dies off quickly./

    Lots to be learned about this present epidemic. When a population is in the throes of a tranmissable disease, it's diffult to test ideas. More so when the media is in the "scare you" mode.
    Last edited by MDABE80; 05-30-2020 at 12:00 AM.

  16. #216
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    Sorry if that was confusing.
    The Lancet article quote starting with "The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003" is about about both SARS COV-I and SARS-COV-2.
    Here is the reference again: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...129-8/fulltext
    The point is the original SARS in 2003 was eliminated the old fashioned way, it was quarantined and isolated out of existence.
    The CDC timeline for SARS is interesting as well: https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm

  17. #217
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    All the discussion and arguments, either way, will be exposed soon. Within 2 weeks to a month, after all the protesting/rioting of this week, we will know if the threat of Covid has passed, or if it is the start of the second wave.

    Either way. We should know.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  18. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    All the discussion and arguments, either way, will be exposed soon. Within 2 weeks to a month, after all the protesting/rioting of this week, we will know if the threat of Covid has passed, or if it is the start of the second wave.

    Either way. We should know.
    That’s certainly an optimistic viewpoint.

    No matter what happens, rationalizations will make their way into the news cycles that support political agendas. I predict this virus “crisis” will continue through the November election even if the death toll is close to zero. Already there is talk of another shutdown during annual flu season because coronavirus will reappear.

  19. #219
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    Not really optimistic as much as practical, IMO.

    hundreds of thousands, at many locations and many without masks , shoulder to shoulder for fairly extended times.

    If we see a spike, it will be obvious that we are not past the virus. If it stays the same, it will indicate, not prove, that the virus is on the decline.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  20. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    All the discussion and arguments, either way, will be exposed soon. Within 2 weeks to a month, after all the protesting/rioting of this week, we will know if the threat of Covid has passed, or if it is the start of the second wave.

    Either way. We should know.
    I disagree.

    1. Being outside in the open air, and then not being stationary but walking and running around are both major mitigating factors for catching a respiratory illness from someone else. That's the nature of how most of the protestors are behaving. The protestors are also demographically skewed young and able-bodied.

    2. I don't think we have very good estimates on the absolute number of people involved in these protests, but it's sure far far fewer than the total number of students who are currently out of school (and may return by September) or even probably just the total of all people employed by schools and universities who are currently laid off and may return.

    It's a big news story in its own right, but isn't going to be some massive rosetta stone which clarifies our otherwise murky COVID knowledge.

  21. #221
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    Folks young and old are eating drinking and gambling in close proximity in Palm Desert Indian Casinos....in defiance of Governors recommendation.

  22. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    I disagree.

    1. Being outside in the open air, and then not being stationary but walking and running around are both major mitigating factors for catching a respiratory illness from someone else. That's the nature of how most of the protestors are behaving. The protestors are also demographically skewed young and able-bodied.

    2. I don't think we have very good estimates on the absolute number of people involved in these protests, but it's sure far far fewer than the total number of students who are currently out of school (and may return by September) or even probably just the total of all people employed by schools and universities who are currently laid off and may return.

    It's a big news story in its own right, but isn't going to be some massive rosetta stone which clarifies our otherwise murky COVID knowledge.
    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Not really optimistic as much as practical, IMO.

    hundreds of thousands, at many locations and many without masks , shoulder to shoulder for fairly extended times.

    If we see a spike, it will be obvious that we are not past the virus. If it stays the same, it will indicate, not prove, that the virus is on the decline.
    Read my post before yours.

    I understand that they are in the open air and, according to the article we read here, and I shared elsewhere, one has to inhale 1000 of the 'microbes', and that is harder to do in open air.

    BUT, if there is a spike in two weeks, we will KNOW that we are NOT past the virus. No spike and it will indicate, not prove, that we may be past the worst.

    That MIGHT mean that open air, large gatherings might be allowed. It might not.

    There are no certainties. All we can do is wait and see. I am opening my small shop today, one group of customers at a time, masks required (we will provide one if you don't have one), required to use sanitizer upon entry, and we will wipe down with alcohol after you have left and before the next people have come in.
    I am not positive that it is safe to do so. I only know that, if we want to make any effort to remain viable as a business, it is now. I am trying to stay positive, to stay safe and, especially, to not bring anything home to my compromised immune system wife.

    I hope that all will go well. To show my concern, I have thrown some rolls of paper towels.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  23. #223
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    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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    https://www.bing.com/covid/local/uni...es?form=msntrk

    Looks like the deaths count is going down. Cyclical but still headed in the right direction like due to those elderly hosts dying off. The weak and elderly always go first.
    Sad to say. Metabolically and immunologically, the elders systems to manage infections fade.

  25. #225
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    "approximately 517 nursing home residents and care providers have died EVERY DAY — 46,000 in total — since the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic."
    From my AARP daily newsletter.

    It seems like us older folk still need to worry. I'm not in a nursing home or care facility, but it is still scary.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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