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Thread: How does no sports in California until 2021 affect the Zags?

  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    I would not be surprised if the prevalence in New York is much higher than 3%. They already have much higher targeted test rates than the rest of the country (something like 40% percent of persons tested over there are confirmed positive, vs 20% elsewhere; these are estimates off the top of my head).

    New York also just added presumed Covid deaths to their data, so their data isn’t as valuable for comparison.
    Obviously, the number of actual infections is much higher than the confirmed cases. Same is true of actual deaths vs confirmed deaths, although I would not expect the multiple to be as high.

    I think presumed deaths, when discussing it as a proportion of presumed cases, is more valuable since we are attempting to get as close as possible to a true rate.
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  2. #27
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    It has been difficult to see how many persons are dying with Covid vs dying from Covid. At this point, it seems we are overestimating the deaths from Covid, but this ignores persons who were never tested and died from the disease, of course.

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    It has been difficult to see how many persons are dying with Covid vs dying from Covid. At this point, it seems we are overestimating the deaths from Covid, but this ignores persons who were never tested and died from the disease, of course.
    The scientists can look at the excess deaths aboved the usual or expected deaths from previous years. (This is part of the process in NYC). There is no precise way to know exactly how many have died from COVID-19, but the difference in deaths from previous years is statistically useful in a similar way to how a serology test is used to extrapolate an estimate for infections in the total population.

    For example, as of March 31, the Italian city of Nembro had 158 deaths in 2020 as opposed to 35 on average in the previous five years. But Nembro had only counted 31 confirmed deaths from COVID-19. So 31 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the town, but over 120 more deaths (4X confimred deaths) than the same timeframe in the previous five years with no other reasonable explanation for the discrepancy.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ing-death-toll

    I'm not in a position to say how much we are underestimating COVID-19 deaths in the United States, but we definitely are. And if, for example, we're counting half in our confirmed total, that difference would be hugely influential in how dangerous this is.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    It has been difficult to see how many persons are dying with Covid vs dying from Covid. At this point, it seems we are overestimating the deaths from Covid, but this ignores persons who were never tested and died from the disease, of course.
    This is what I think as well. It is important to know how many were really infected which takes the testing of groups randomly. It would also be important to know how many passed away from Covid only versus those with Covid and underlying issues. Both are important to know but add more context.

    I think the infection rate is multiples higher than reported so I think the mortality rate will drop drastically as we get more data.

    In any case, sports coming back will require a lot of testing. This what needs to be the focus moving forward from a production standpoint.

    I personally believe that we will get where we need to be although I think it may be July by the time it’s all in place


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    I think that the isolate and contact-trace thing probably is too hard to make work right now to help the general population but would be very useful to track sick team members and stuff as we open things back up.

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    Interesting scenario in Nembro... universal contagion was posited but seems far fetched.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    Interesting scenario in Nembro... universal contagion was posited but seems far fetched.
    Looking at Nembro and hoping that COVID-19 has a lower fatality rate than believed, universal contagion would be a best case scenario. With a population of 11,500, over 1.4% of Nembro's population died during the first three months of 2020. During any other year, 0.3% would typically die during the same time frame.

    I'm still hopeful about this Santa Clara serology test, but Nembro's example of 1.1% excess mortality relative to the entire population makes me skeptical.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    I still don't understand how many of the states say they can't get the needed quantity of "testing kits" while the federal government's reply is that there are more than enough availability...seems like there is a communications break down somewhere...
    I'm curious whether anyone on this thread has tried to get tested. My wife and son were both down with a fever and a cough for over a week each, and these were very unusual symptoms for both of them (neither of them have had these combined symptoms before). They both had virtual doctors appointments and asked about testing and were screened out of it, due to not having traveled to China or having knowingly been in contact with someone who tested positive. In my son's appointment they told us he could only get tested if he ends up in the ICU. They may both have had COVID-19, but I'll never know. IMO, it's far harder to get tested than we are being told.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scrooner View Post
    I'm curious whether anyone on this thread has tried to get tested. My wife and son were both down with a fever and a cough for over a week each, and these were very unusual symptoms for both of them (neither of them have had these combined symptoms before). They both had virtual doctors appointments and asked about testing and were screened out of it, due to not having traveled to China or having knowingly been in contact with someone who tested positive. In my son's appointment they told us he could only get tested if he ends up in the ICU. They may both have had COVID-19, but I'll never know. IMO, it's far harder to get tested than we are being told.
    Cindy Wendle had a similar story in the Inlander:
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    scrooner, really sorry you had to go through all that ...
    so glad the end story is the U shape, back to normal

  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrooner View Post
    I'm curious whether anyone on this thread has tried to get tested. My wife and son were both down with a fever and a cough for over a week each, and these were very unusual symptoms for both of them (neither of them have had these combined symptoms before). They both had virtual doctors appointments and asked about testing and were screened out of it, due to not having traveled to China or having knowingly been in contact with someone who tested positive. In my son's appointment they told us he could only get tested if he ends up in the ICU. They may both have had COVID-19, but I'll never know. IMO, it's far harder to get tested than we are being told.
    Antibody tests, which would tell you if you had Covid-19, are around the corner. My understanding is that it is a quick finger poke and not the nasty nasal swab reminiscent of Arnold Schwarzenegger from Total Recall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scrooner View Post
    I'm curious whether anyone on this thread has tried to get tested. My wife and son were both down with a fever and a cough for over a week each, and these were very unusual symptoms for both of them (neither of them have had these combined symptoms before). They both had virtual doctors appointments and asked about testing and were screened out of it, due to not having traveled to China or having knowingly been in contact with someone who tested positive. In my son's appointment they told us he could only get tested if he ends up in the ICU. They may both have had COVID-19, but I'll never know. IMO, it's far harder to get tested than we are being told.
    My sister-in-law was presumed to be infected. She had high fever, body aches for about 2 weeks. Her Dr (who is also mine), told her to monitor her situation and call the hospital if it got worse. She improved and never got tested.
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  13. #38
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    Just another anecdote here: My BIL who is 77 had a dry cough for a few days then thought he might be having a heart attack as he had chest pains. He went to a nearby ER and they tested him with a nasal swab. He has a couple of extra risk factors (age, weight, heart) and his test came back positive after a few days waiting. He did not develop any more symptoms and the worst of it lasted only 3 or 4 days. After 2 weeks from initial test he was tested for antibodies and his test was negative indicating that he never had Covid 19.

    I've have read that the antibody test results in as much as a 5% false positive outcome. I have not read about false negatives but just last night I heard that there are at least 5 antibody tests and only one of them has been FDA tested and approved. I believe it was Fauci who said that, and he went on to say he would only put credence in the FDA approved antibody test. Apparently some of the tests may be reading positive because of the existence of other viral antibodies, not necessarily those of covid19.
    There is still lots to learn about the testing IMO.
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    When it comes to college sports in 20-21 my main concern is what will happen in education all around. If school are open in September that would be a rather large movement of people from being located in one area to another (via trains, planes, autos, buses, etc.) and from a wide variety of locations (foreign students, etc). Even K-12 means kids moving from having been primarily at home to a school. I simply do not see how all that can happen unless there's pretty good testing to help prevent a renewed vigor in the pandemic. For all of the economic problems C19 has caused I just do not understand at all why the USA has, and continues to be, far behind on testing. Even if a vaccine can be conjured up by September there's a lot of time between now and then for C19 to develop a variety of strains. How effective a vaccine might be is likely not going to be 100%. It all boils down to being able to tell who has C19 and then quarantine them. Testing for C19 is going to have to be ongoing as well. Without widespread and frequent testing I don't see how we can move a lot of 5 to 20-ish year olds to and from school without a repeat of what we're going through now. The younger members of our population are less likely to show symptoms and more likely to forego social distancing. There are only four full months between now and September. A lot can happen in four months to help fight the pandemic. However, I certainly have serious doubts, given the time I feel the USA has already squandered, that much will change for the better (maybe for smarter states/localities but not for the USA as a whole). Rocky road ahead - buckle up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Section 116 View Post
    I've been reading and hearing this for the past few days and I realize much of it is unknown or conjecture currently. However if there are no sports in California until 2021 I assume the WCC scheduling would have to take that into account. And all California based schools would have to play road games until January? The upside is the WCC schedule didn't commence until January this recently concluded season so there is that. I guess my biggest fear is there is no season at all. I don't even want to go there!

    Link: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...21/5142950002/
    New home courts...……...So Cal/Las Vegas...…….No Cal/Reno...……..Oregon/Boise......Zags/CDA or MSLA. Now, wouldn't that be interesting?

  16. #41
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    The U.S. is second to only Italy in tests per capita.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    The U.S. is second to only Italy in tests per capita.
    Hmm. Not according to this:
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ies-worldwide/
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...h-korea-2020-4

    According to this.

  19. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    That chart shows six countries.

    I looked around and found a pretty comprehensive data here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    We're not second.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    That's not what that says. The chart you linked just doesn't have all of the countries between Italy and USA, including Belgium, Austria, Russia, Spain, Germany, Canada, and Ireland, all of which apparently have higher testing rates per capita.

    The article does note that we're ramping up testing fast, and closing the gap, but that we still have half as much per capita as Italy. The list you linked is not actually inconsistent with Sonuvazag's list, it just has less information (and its' 2 days older).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grand Valley Zag View Post
    uhh, no. That's not what that says. The chart you linked just doesn't have all of the countries between Italy and USA, including Belgium, Austria, Russia, Spain, Germany, Canada, and Ireland, all of which apparently have higher testing rates per capita.

    The article does note that we're ramping up testing fast, and closing the gap, but that we still have half as much per capita as Italy. The list you linked is not actually inconsistent with Sonuvazag's list, it just has less information (and its' 2 days older).
    And I'll add that some of the states in the US would be near the top of the list, by themselves.
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    Quote Originally Posted by scrooner View Post
    I'm curious whether anyone on this thread has tried to get tested. My wife and son were both down with a fever and a cough for over a week each, and these were very unusual symptoms for both of them (neither of them have had these combined symptoms before). They both had virtual doctors appointments and asked about testing and were screened out of it, due to not having traveled to China or having knowingly been in contact with someone who tested positive. In my son's appointment they told us he could only get tested if he ends up in the ICU. They may both have had COVID-19, but I'll never know. IMO, it's far harder to get tested than we are being told.
    FWIW, a few weeks ago my daughter's preschool teacher's husband tested positive. First test came back inconclusive. Second test came back positive. His wife, my daughter's teacher, had the same symptoms and she was not tested, but told to assume that she had it. Both have since recovered. Their three-year old did not develop any symptoms and was never tested. Our governor says there aren't enough for everyone to get one and that the proper treatment's usually the same anyway.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    And I'll add that some of the states in the US would be near the top of the list, by themselves.
    I stand corrected.

    It does appear to me, based on all the stats that the US rate of testing is outpacing other countries and within a couple weeks we will have surpassed most countries in per capita testing.

    Would you agree?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    I stand corrected.

    It does appear to me, based on all the stats that the US rate of testing is outpacing other countries and within a couple weeks we will have surpassed most countries in per capita testing.

    Would you agree?
    It's possible, but this chart is for the total tests per capita, and I think we've got a longer haul to get there than you expect. Some of those countries have already achieved nearly double the per capita rate of the US so we can't get there until we double our total tests and we've already done over 4 million. At our current rate of about 150,000 per day, that's close to another month to get to the levels of a where a country like Portugal is right now. And you have to presume these countries aren't done testing.

    But it would be nice to see the current daily rates per capita, which we might already be doing better at, relative to the world.
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    The prompt to this discussion is several people here seem to think getting tested is nearly impossible in this country. Using your worldometer stats, the US has tested nearly twice as many people as the closest to us. And that’s Russia whose credibility is very questionable. Most countries are nowhere near our numbers. If we are testing 150,000 a day, in a week of testing we will have tested more people than most countries have the entire time. Obviously we are ramping up testing and increasing that number of tests every day.

    We will have the most comprehensive testing from the most diverse geographical areas in the world very shortly.

    Would you agree?

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