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Thread: Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board

  1. #1
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    Default Sam Vecenie’s NBA Draft Big Board

    It’s on The Athletic, so subscription needed (but as I noted in another thread, they are offering a free sample subscription). Killian Tillie as the biggest climber since the last edition of the ranking (in the top 30!), with the caveat that teams might be reluctant to take on injury risks given the lack of opportunities to see guys in action.

    https://theathletic.com/1705008/2020...rce=dailyemail

  2. #2
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    Tillie is interesting to me.

    Negatives:
    Injury history
    Older for a draftee
    He didn't draw a lot of fouls for some reason

    Positives:
    First round talent
    Efficient scorer inside
    Efficient scorer outside (ability to stretch defenses)
    Plus Interior defender
    Plus Perimeter defender

    I'd think he is worth an early second round pick. If the injury bug doesn't hit him he will be into his peak production during his rookie contract (assuming late first rounder). Meaning he will probably provide someone with a good option off the bench for cheap. I'd even think that a possible contender with a late first round pick might take a risk on him.

  3. #3
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    Kizzy at 66, not much love for other Zags....Petro at 94.

    Udub with two lottery picks, how embarrassing.

    As well, the Crooked Miller (as opposed to the stupid one) has players at 28, 29, 33; how does he do it?

    Shocker: Seven footer Luke Garza at 90, which kinda throws the whole list out, IMO.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by mgadfly View Post
    Tillie is interesting to me.

    Negatives:
    Injury history
    Older for a draftee
    He didn't draw a lot of fouls for some reason

    Positives:
    First round talent
    Efficient scorer inside
    Efficient scorer outside (ability to stretch defenses)
    Plus Interior defender
    Plus Perimeter defender

    I'd think he is worth an early second round pick. If the injury bug doesn't hit him he will be into his peak production during his rookie contract (assuming late first rounder). Meaning he will probably provide someone with a good option off the bench for cheap. I'd even think that a possible contender with a late first round pick might take a risk on him.
    Younger than Obi Toppin even though he is a sophomore.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdmiller7 View Post
    Younger than Obi Toppin even though he is a sophomore.
    Tillie will be about the same age as Brandon Clark and M. Thybulle, but both of those guys were taken a little later in the draft without the injury history.

    I'd take a gamble on Tillie if I was a GM with a late first round pick but I wouldn't be surprised if he slides down into the second round.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by mgadfly View Post
    Tillie will be about the same age as Brandon Clark and M. Thybulle, but both of those guys were taken a little later in the draft without the injury history.

    I'd take a gamble on Tillie if I was a GM with a late first round pick but I wouldn't be surprised if he slides down into the second round.
    That'd be my guess too, 2nd round. He just has the skills the NBA is looking for. I think he'll be a great bench piece.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Kizzy at 66, not much love for other Zags....Petro at 94.

    Udub with two lottery picks, how embarrassing.

    As well, the Crooked Miller (as opposed to the stupid one) has players at 28, 29, 33; how does he do it?

    Shocker: Seven footer Luke Garza at 90, which kinda throws the whole list out, IMO.
    Garza can’t defend or stretch the floor. Not many low post plodders in the NBA this decade.

    Miller the crooked has underperformed more relative to his player talent, than any coach in America in the last 5 years in my view.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by mgadfly View Post
    Tillie will be about the same age as Brandon Clark and M. Thybulle, but both of those guys were taken a little later in the draft without the injury history.

    I'd take a gamble on Tillie if I was a GM with a late first round pick but I wouldn't be surprised if he slides down into the second round.
    I agree and I would too. If his injury disables him, the contract surely can reflect an agreement concerning that. We've never really had Tillie functioning at full steam for a full season.

  9. #9
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    My guess is he goes late second or undrafted. Especially with all the delays in medical testing before draft day. You can't use a first round slot or an early second slot for a guy that has a high probability of being unable to play more than half the season.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladyzag12 View Post
    My guess is he goes late second or undrafted. Especially with all the delays in medical testing before draft day. You can't use a first round slot or an early second slot for a guy that has a high probability of being unable to play more than half the season.
    Yes you can. NBA GM’s won’t take a chance at the top of the draft, but once you get past the midpoint in the first round it becomes a highly calculated risk/reward. The potential for Killian to be a high reward selection at that point can easily outweigh the risk of injury to him.

    Ask yourself how many late first round or early second round picks make an impact in the league. That point in the draft is when GM’s are looking for someone with high upside potential and getting a nugget that other GM’s passed on. Tillie is a potential nugget.

  11. #11
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    I hope he goes first round. Crazy times.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Yes you can. NBA GM’s won’t take a chance at the top of the draft, but once you get past the midpoint in the first round it becomes a highly calculated risk/reward. The potential for Killian to be a high reward selection at that point can easily outweigh the risk of injury to him.

    Ask yourself how many late first round or early second round picks make an impact in the league. That point in the draft is when GM’s are looking for someone with high upside potential and getting a nugget that other GM’s passed on. Tillie is a potential nugget.
    This is my take as well. I would be shocked if he didn’t get drafted and I think he will sneak into the first round as he’s that talented. If he didn’t have the injury history, he’d already be in the league


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  13. #13
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    The NBA guys are pretty sophisticated in their analysis of players with a 'history of injuries' ...they don't just let it go at that. They look at what types of history, and how that history is likely to carry forward in the future. And they get a lot more information than we do on the subject. In Tillie's case, from my very limited perch, I think there is reason to be a bit optimistic about his future. While stress fractures can carry forward, from what we know, Tillie's hasn't. The 'cleaning out' of his knee was a one time deal for a situation that needed resolving for years, and seems to have done the trick for a half year of ball after the procedure. Sitting out because of a twisted ankle when you came down on someone else's foot can happen anytime to anyone.

    Not saying there isn't some concern, but from where I sit, I would role the dice...and I think other will also.

  14. #14
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    There will be no medical evaluations before this draft, unless they move it back. Tillie has a history of soft tissue injuries which means they have a high rate of reoccurrence. And he doesn't have that much upside because of his age. He is what he isn't this point. That is why he most likely ends up at the back end of the second round or undrafted.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladyzag12 View Post
    There will be no medical evaluations before this draft, unless they move it back. Tillie has a history of soft tissue injuries which means they have a high rate of reoccurrence. And he doesn't have that much upside because of his age. He is what he isn't this point. That is why he most likely ends up at the back end of the second round or undrafted.
    I think Tillie is far from a finished product. I just can’t see, injuries or not, a big that can shoot and defend going undrafted. He’s going top 40, whenever they have the draft. IMO


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  16. #16
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    I really think we have Petrusev back next year. Really hoping he works on that 12 footer.

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