What Is the “Drop Dead” date for knowing if there will be a 2020-21 NCAA men’s

[MDABE80]

They are small and we are not. Since a ban was put on Chinese coming to the US, Im certain this largely explains why out mortality is so low. Once China refused to let us Docs in, we knew something ( didn't know what exactly) was up. Then it was obviously they were lies and they were covering it up. I do think we did the best we could considering the prior administration did nothing in their 2 epidemics. Cupboard was bare and we had to build an agency from scratch. Of course the liberal media has their message. but in a country this huge. 90 days to build an agency in the middle of this epidemic is spectacular. As I said a month ago, I said Fauci is to be trusted and he's done a superior job. Pretty much under control now except in a few pockets ie NY, NJ and Seattle area. They only country doing better than we are is Germany who close the borders immediately.

[Hoopaholic]

Regarding testing and the relationship of the southern and midwest states for their low numbers might well be the fact that there are just not enough test kits to go around for all those states, at least that is what I have heard numerous times on the major news networks (PBS, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS and MSNBC - except for FOX). That being said, the remarks were that WHEN test kits are available in these areas, we will find out just how much this virus has spread. These states are pretty much rural in nature and those are the areas where treatment facilities are not as available as in the bigger metropolitan areas.

Let's hope this reasoning is incorrect and then the spread might well reach a maximum in the next couple of weeks...this is about as optimistic as I can get at this time...


Another person climbing on board the theory that we could very well have slowed down the spread of this virus had we acted sooner as in early January...we should have had a contingency plan all along just in case this happened which it did. I mean we have plans for every military situation throughout the world and neglected a plan for this!!! I don't know who might be at fault for this HUGE error in planning and re-acting instead of being pro-active but whomever it is, should be held accountable as thousands of deaths could have been avoided...IMO

Pandemic planning is an emergency management item
If a state has failed to ha e proper planning in place for a pandemic to include logistics that is the fault of the state
We constantly reviewed our plans logistics rules procedures on a yearly basis that included spare locations equipment etc and we engaged in h1n1 for the pandemic

States are responsible. Federal government planning and logistics support the request from a state

Washington and New York clearly did not have a vetted action plan


Secondly many medical facilities had hands tied for proper planning by state rules that forbid. Yes forbid a medical center from purchasing and stockpiling PPE ventilators and evening bed space so you are seeing the downriver ram ufications of foolhardy rules that limited proper logistical planning

[LTownZag]

Of course the liberal media has their message. but in a country this huge. 90 days to build an agency in the middle of this epidemic is spectacular. As I said a month ago, I said Fauci is to be trusted and he's done a superior job. Pretty much under control now except in a few pockets ie NY, NJ and Seattle area. They only country doing better than we are is Germany who close the borders immediately.

Abe, a physician, has become and now remains my favorite contributor to read.

[sonuvazag]

The current rate of doubling of cases and deaths in Washington state is one of the lowest in the U.S. I'm a little surprised to see it getting knocked in back-to-back posts for its response here.

[LongIslandZagFan]

Pandemic planning is an emergency management item
If a state has failed to ha e proper planning in place for a pandemic to include logistics that is the fault of the state
We constantly reviewed our plans logistics rules procedures on a yearly basis that included spare locations equipment etc and we engaged in h1n1 for the pandemic

States are responsible. Federal government planning and logistics support the request from a state

Washington and New York clearly did not have a vetted action plan


Secondly many medical facilities had hands tied for proper planning by state rules that forbid. Yes forbid a medical center from purchasing and stockpiling PPE ventilators and evening bed space so you are seeing the downriver ram ufications of foolhardy rules that limited proper logistical planning

Show me a single state that was. Lousiana? Georgia?

[LongIslandZagFan]

They are small and we are not. Since a ban was put on Chinese coming to the US, Im certain this largely explains why out mortality is so low. Once China refused to let us Docs in, we knew something ( didn't know what exactly) was up. Then it was obviously they were lies and they were covering it up. I do think we did the best we could considering the prior administration did nothing in their 2 epidemics. Cupboard was bare and we had to build an agency from scratch. Of course the liberal media has their message. but in a country this huge. 90 days to build an agency in the middle of this epidemic is spectacular. As I said a month ago, I said Fauci is to be trusted and he's done a superior job. Pretty much under control now except in a few pockets ie NY, NJ and Seattle area. They only country doing better than we are is Germany who close the borders immediately.

Show me how Louisiana isn't out of control. Detroit? Atlanta? Stop offering misinformation. One can look at raw data and know that it isn't in those three areas. To say as much is either being partisan or being oblivious to actual facts that are readily available

[mgadfly]

They are small and we are not. Since a ban was put on Chinese coming to the US, Im certain this largely explains why out mortality is so low. Once China refused to let us Docs in, we knew something ( didn't know what exactly) was up. Then it was obviously they were lies and they were covering it up. I do think we did the best we could considering the prior administration did nothing in their 2 epidemics. Cupboard was bare and we had to build an agency from scratch. Of course the liberal media has their message. but in a country this huge. 90 days to build an agency in the middle of this epidemic is spectacular. As I said a month ago, I said Fauci is to be trusted and he's done a superior job. Pretty much under control now except in a few pockets ie NY, NJ and Seattle area. They only country doing better than we are is Germany who close the borders immediately.

I blame Woodrow Wilson for his poor response to the Spanish flu.

How long can conservatives continue to use the same poor excuses for not taking responsibility and leading when they are in charge?

[LTownZag]

The healthy victims will hardly notice. High risk types will be sicker and perish at a higher rate. It’s always been like this. I talked to Fauci who predicts that most of this will be gone by the time a vaccine is developed.

In the above quote from a few weeks ago, Abe claims he speaks (or spoke) with Anthony Fauci. Perhaps he should run this quote (from 3/24, well into quarantine) past Mr. Fauci:

The mortality and morbidity data doesn’t look too bad. It’s the lightest epidemic is decades. The small suburb nursing home in Seattle was striking. Likewise, NYCs has a large dense population and the disease seems to be entrenched. We’ll see what happens s in a few weeks but I’m thinking those difficult areas will be the focus.

I do think we did the best we could considering the prior administration did nothing in their 2 epidemics. Cupboard was bare and we had to build an agency from scratch.

Well:

Two months before the novel coronavirus probably began spreading in Wuhan, China, the Trump administration ended a $200-million pandemic early-warning program aimed at training scientists in China and other countries to detect and respond to such a threat.

The project, launched by the U.S. Agency for International Development in 2009, identified 1,200 different viruses that had the potential to erupt into pandemics, including more than 160 novel coronaviruses. The initiative, called PREDICT, also trained and supported staff in 60 foreign laboratories — including the Wuhan lab that identified SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

[Hoopaholic]

Show me a single state that was. Lousiana? Georgia?

How do you want to measure preparedness

[willandi]

Inslee announced today, April 2, that the stay home order is in place until May 4.

[23dpg]

This thread has turned dark, no surprise.
Lots of misinformation on here but I think I’ll just avoid it going forward.

[ZagsObserver]

I am decidedly independent.

That said, I find most of the finger pointing purposely ignorant. The CDC and WHO were also caught very unaware and surprised very late into the game. They have said as much (not to mention the other European governments, namely Italy). They have also changed their tune on masks, which is also something that people are pointing for being unprepared. Moreover, officials have warned the last 3 presidents about a risk of a pandemic, and it was the last president who decreased funding to the CDC (not the current one, whom I can’t stand).

So there’s that.

[MDABE80]

No misinformation. It may not be the information you like LIZ. Pockets of extreme severity will alwaYs exist. I do not know about Atlanta or Detroit or Louisiana has to do with anything. I do know that once politics creeps in, things don’t remain collegial or friendly.

[LTownZag]

They only country doing better than we are is Germany who close the borders immediately.

Don't let get facts get in the way of your theory, but Germany closed its borders between the 16th and 18th. After the following nearby countries had done so:

The Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Spain

[MDABE80]

https://www.businessinsider.com/germ...lthcare-2020-3

Many reasons account for Germany's low low case fatality. Not only did they close their borders initially but 70% of Germany is 20-50 yrs in age. Smaller country and they had a system in place. Certain uniformed posters may think other wise.........but here's an over view. Central fact is that the US has an exceptional low death rate. Missing the point (as usual) are certain posters who point to other countries in Europe. Little lightweight snarky types. But returning to the point of thread, nobody knows what that date might be for the 2020-2021 season. I cannot imagine we'd lose a full season based on this current problem. It would be a terrible outcome since our Zags begin the season as a no1-no3. I suppose much depends on whether the NBA Draft includes Filip. With all these honors he's receiving, I have my doubts he'll be available to us.

[LTownZag]

https://www.businessinsider.com/germ...lthcare-2020-3

Many reasons account for Germany's low low case fatality. Not only did they close their borders initially but 70% of Germany is 20-50 yrs in age. Smaller country and they had a system in place. Certain uniformed posters may think other wise.........but here's an over view. Central fact is that the US has an exceptional low death rate. Missing the point (as usual) are certain posters who point to other countries in Europe. Little lightweight snarky types. But returning to the point of thread, nobody knows what that date might be for the 2020-2021 season. I cannot imagine we'd lose a full season based on this current problem. It would be a terrible outcome since our Zags begin the season as a no1-no3. I suppose much depends on whether the NBA Draft includes Filip. With all these honors he's receiving, I have my doubts he'll be available to us.

Germany isn't really an outlier, or won't be for long. You are grasping at straws to explain a phenomenon (German outlier status) that is disappearing. Their situation is and has been trending towards the mean outcome of western europe.

But what does it mean when you say "they close their borders initially" as an explanation? They closed them between the 16th and 18th, after The Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Spain.

If you really want to look at some outliers and potentially learn things that work (I don't know what all those things are, but here you'll truly see a strikingly miraculous outcome) take a look at South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Taiwain. All countries with close geography and economic/social ties to China. But 260 TOTAL deaths.

[LongIslandZagFan]

I misinformation. It may not be the information Marion you like LIZ. Pockets of extreme severity will alwaYs exist. I do not know what Atlanta or Detroit I’d Louisiana has to do with anything. I do know that once politics creeps in, things don’t remain collegial or friendly.

I am simply saying you are actually ignoring facts... for what reason I don't know. Louisiana is trending closer to 4% death rate where as NY has been steady at 2%. This is easily obtainable data. Yet somehow you only point out NY/NJ/Seattle. Why?

I am not pointing out based on politics. New Orleans and Louisiana are run by Democrats. Same as Detroit and Michigan. You brought up three locations and said they are the only real problems and everywhere else is under control. It isn't. There are demonstrable facts that refute this. The folks in those areas would say the same thing. These aren't pockets Abe. Louisiana has more cases than California. How is that a pocket of extremes? This isn't about politics... it is about you downplaying this. I don't care about your motivations... this isn't about politics. This is about human lives likely to be lost. This isn't being defeatist, this is about being a realist. The quicker we are all realists the better. For the record when THIS administration requests a large number of body bags from the military... it is time to pull your head out and pay attention... they did that tonight.

[LTownZag]

Many reasons account for Germany's low low case fatality. Not only did they close their borders initially but 70% of Germany is 20-50 yrs in age.

You are incorrect by a factor of 2.

37% of Germans are 20-50yrs old.


In fact spain's 20-50yr (41% of its people) olds make up more of their country than Germany's.

So is it the border closures (later) or the age distribution (skewed older) that explains the better German outcomes? (which, to reiterate, having been trending more and more like Spain/Italy/UK for days now)






Abe, could you help clarify the timeline you've created? On what date did China ban USA-based or any foreign doctors from going to China?

Since a ban was put on Chinese coming to the US, Im certain this largely explains why out mortality is so low. Once China refused to let us Docs in, we knew something ( didn't know what exactly) was up. Then it was obviously they were lies and they were covering it up

Was it after March 5th, when you claimed to have recently spoken with Dr. Anthony Fauci regarding timing and Vaccines. Is that something you still claim happened?

It’s just a minor variation of the flu. Tony Fauci is running this program for Trump. Listen to what he says. Tony’s a good friend since 1985.

[MDABE80]

No no LIZ what I was trying to point out t ( as I did nearly 1 month ago) is that there will be pockets of exceptional concentration of eople. When 27000 people live in Manhattan per block ( that's the average), the density will make any disease worse. And there are other issues besides density ( ie heat humidity0 a culture where people don't wash their hands and then there are some communities where there are no reason known just yet.

It's not worth arguing about. The death rate is higher in some places and very low in others. I get that. As you point out the cities that are worse or worst are operated by Dems. I don't think that has any bearing. Big cities are generally run by Dems. That doesn't matter.
In my view it's something more to do with the biology of the disease (it always does) and we haven't quite figured it out yet.

No worries. Myself myself , Im more concerned as to how and why this particular bug got here and why it got here. Lots of other diseases that are important and reversible are not getting treated because resouces are used for corona. Further it looks like this is a financial disaster for a country whose economy was soaring.

Everyone needs help. Everyone deserves it too. We do not know how many people have the disease so it's tough to plan to stop it. One thing I do know is that this was no accident.....it doesn't look like it to me.

[LTownZag]

When 27000 people live in Manhattan per block ( that's the average), the density will make any disease worse.

Off by a factor of 64x this time. That's not just a detail.

421 people on average square block in Manhattan.





I'm not harassing anyone here and would love to happily edit/remove/retract any of my factual corrections if Abe doesn't make (or corrects) any massive factual errors in his COVID-19 analysis. As none of my posts have slandered anyone's character or criticized their motivations or intent, I'd appreciate the factual corrections be allowed to remain public. And for that matter if/when someone ever notices factual errors in any of my posts, please let me know. I don't want to be incorrect (and then reason from those wrong stats) any longer than I have to. In the past I've responded with genuine thanks and immediate clarification/correction when others have pointed out mistakes in my math or stats.

[MDABE80]

If the mods haven't noticed, I think I'm being constantly harassed by LTown. He's on ignore so there is no interaction. Somebody might remember he was suspended for a week when he first did this juvenile schtick as he came on board. He didn't learn much on his Reno generated vacation. Someone might send him a note. His little confrontation act is tiresome and very light.

[LongIslandZagFan]

If the mods haven't noticed, I think I'm being constantly harassed by LTown. He's on ignore so there is no interaction. Somebody might remember he was suspended for a week when he first did this juvenile schtick as he came on board. He didn't learn much on his Reno generated vacation. Someone might send him a note. His little confrontation act is tiresome and very light.

Harassed by what? Facts?

[MDABE80]

Figures but you've allowed this to turn into the Crosby room again. Nice goin.

[john montana]

Harassed by what? Facts?

Hah. This actually made me laugh out loud LIZF. Thanks for the laugh in some dark times.

[MDABE80]

I am simply saying you are actually ignoring facts... for what reason I don't know. Louisiana is trending closer to 4% death rate where as NY has been steady at 2%. This is easily obtainable data. Yet somehow you only point out NY/NJ/Seattle. Why?

I am not pointing out based on politics. New Orleans and Louisiana are run by Democrats. Same as Detroit and Michigan. You brought up three locations and said they are the only real problems and everywhere else is under control. It isn't. There are demonstrable facts that refute this. The folks in those areas would say the same thing. These aren't pockets Abe. Louisiana has more cases than California. How is that a pocket of extremes? This isn't about politics... it is about you downplaying this. I don't care about your motivations... this isn't about politics. This is about human lives likely to be lost. This isn't being defeatist, this is about being a realist. The quicker we are all realists the better. For the record when THIS administration requests a large number of body bags from the military... it is time to pull your head out and pay attention... they did that tonight.

You missed the point. Im speaking to the low mortality rate across the couintry which hovers at 1.4-1.9% according Johns Hopkins which is the clearing house of the data. The problem is that the numerator and denominator are changing daily. As we test more, we'll know a larger number. How that'll fit with increasing or decreasing death rate is unknowable right now. There are signs that the hot spots are lowering mortality.mostly in CA and in Seattle.
NY has fallen a little as well. All we have to go with is the known positive deats and the body count. We do not and will never know the total of those infected because we have 330 million in the uS and we can't test them all.

Obviously there will continue to be those stubborn pockets. So what's trumpeted by the media ain't necessarily so. THei rgoal is to lay blame in the WH. The more the merrier so this president won't be reelected. As we've seen though, any relief to the country generated by this administration immediately is protested. Media fuels this and it's beyond denial. Looking at a falling death rate in the hot spots, can the rest of the country be far behind? I hope all of our cities improve. Some will and some won't. Eventually though they all will as this infection burns out. It's always that way in any epidemic.