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Thread: What Is the “Drop Dead” date for knowing if there will be a 2020-21 NCAA men’s

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    Default What Is the “Drop Dead” date for knowing if there will be a 2020-21 NCAA men’s

    basketball season? Who determines? 2021-22?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TravelinZag View Post
    basketball season? Who determines? 2021-22?
    The NCAA, subject to governmental orders and input from member institutions. Safe to say that if the NCAA college football season and NFL seasons are uninterrupted college basketball will be ok. The college basketball season is no different than anything else in society that is on hold right now pending more information and decisions from our elected officials and public health professionals.

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    Field Yates
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    The NCAA has decided to grant athletes who compete in Spring sports an extra year of eligibility, but has decided athletes who compete in a Winter sport will not receive an extra year. So, no extra year for basketball players, but baseball, lacrosse, etc. will get an extra.

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    It was sad to see the basketball players leave earlier than expected, but honestly most teams had very few games left in their season, if at all. It would be chaos to give another year to them. As to the OP, I think if we don't have the economy back by September 1st, we're doomed.
    Krozman
    GU student 1996-2000
    Law Student 2000-2003

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagdawg View Post
    Field Yates
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    The NCAA has decided to grant athletes who compete in Spring sports an extra year of eligibility, but has decided athletes who compete in a Winter sport will not receive an extra year. So, no extra year for basketball players, but baseball, lacrosse, etc. will get an extra.
    But without ANY scholarship money!!! If memory serves, full-scholarships are not given in non-revenue sports so not sure how many GU athletes will be effected.

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    Gonzaga's first game is around November 1st, right? It would be an exhibition game against some local cupcake. Too early to worry about the upcoming season, but now we know Killian and the other seniors won't be around.

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    My guess would be somewhere around the 1st of October, exclusively to Basketball, but, as others have mentioned, if football isn't ready to go, and that would be early to mid August, I don't expect basketball to go on.

    My personal expectation as that, with the decrease in hospital admissions in Kirkland and western Washington, with the newly allowed, FDA approve, serology tests and portable units, that they are getting a handle on it. If people will just continue to self isolate and social distance, we should be getting closer to the peak, nationwide.
    I am, in general, an optimist.
    It's not funny.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    But without ANY scholarship money!!! If memory serves, full-scholarships are not given in non-revenue sports so not sure how many GU athletes will be effected.
    Almost all spring sports are equivalency sports. That is, they have a set scholarship limit that is smaller than the size of the overall roster, which means scholarships are broken up and parceled out—unevenly. The star pitcher may be on a full ride while the average middle infielder is on a partial scholarship. (This is where academic aid, Pell Grants and other funds become part of the complex accounting process.)

    This is where the new calculus could become a bit Hunger Games-ish. Schools can decide what size scholarship they want to dole out to returning Class of 2020 athletes—it doesn’t have to be identical to what they were receiving this academic year. Thus an athlete who was on a half scholarship but not performing up to expectations could find himself or herself offered a walk-on spot for 2020–21. At best.
    https://www.si.com/college/2020/03/3...ancial-hurdles

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    Quote Originally Posted by TravelinZag View Post
    basketball season? Who determines? 2021-22?
    This is probably not a very illuminating or useful framing of the likely situation.

    Was there a "season" this year? It depends on one's definition. Most conferences didn't complete their own tournaments. There was no bracket and no NCAA or NIT Tournament.


    Next season won't likely be decided as a binary (complete all the games regardless of what happens vs cancel all games right now).

    It's hard to imagine a scenario where multiple teams don't have players and coaches infected with Covid-19 at some point. If/when a player or coach tests positive, there's no way that team would play until all players then are tested negative.

    How those likely positive tests will result in certain numbers of games, events, or tournaments getting cancelled or played w/o fans remains to be seen. But I can't imagine a scenario without that occurring.

    I personally wouldn't want to be holding on to travel plans to see a tournament over Thanksgiving in Maui or the Bahamas or Orlando. And it would be hard to imagine the local or state health authorities wanting to welcome tens or hundreds of thousands of visitors to their cities at the start of next winter's viral disease season. If the season becomes a series of "putting out" the brushfires of localized infections popping up around the country and on different campuses and teams, I could see the NCAA pulling the plug entirely, as too many games would have been cancelled or require rescheduling after more testing.

    I think the best semi-realistic hope is for testing to have been scaled up fast and cheap enough as to allow daily or weekly testing of all players and coaching staffs, immediate quarantine of infected players before spread, and enough games not being cancelled or delayed or moved so that some semblance of a regular ~35 game season can occur.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    This is probably not a very illuminating or useful framing of the likely situation.

    Was there a "season" this year? It depends on one's definition. Most conferences didn't complete their own tournaments. There was no bracket and no NCAA or NIT Tournament.


    Next season won't likely be decided as a binary (complete all the games regardless of what happens vs cancel all games right now).

    It's hard to imagine a scenario where multiple teams don't have players and coaches infected with Covid-19 at some point. If/when a player or coach tests positive, there's no way that team would play until all players then are tested negative.

    How those likely positive tests will result in certain numbers of games, events, or tournaments getting cancelled or played w/o fans remains to be seen. But I can't imagine a scenario without that occurring.

    I personally wouldn't want to be holding on to travel plans to see a tournament over Thanksgiving in Maui or the Bahamas or Orlando. And it would be hard to imagine the local or state health authorities wanting to welcome tens or hundreds of thousands of visitors to their cities at the start of next winter's viral disease season. If the season becomes a series of "putting out" the brushfires of localized infections popping up around the country and on different campuses and teams, I could see the NCAA pulling the plug entirely, as too many games would have been cancelled or require rescheduling after more testing.

    I think the best semi-realistic hope is for testing to have been scaled up fast and cheap enough as to allow daily or weekly testing of all players and coaching staffs, immediate quarantine of infected players before spread, and enough games not being cancelled or delayed or moved so that some semblance of a regular ~35 game season can occur.
    I think it’s all speculation. Some on here tend to be more optimistic, like myself. Some tend to be less optimistic like you. What it really comes down to is time and the developments made in the battle. Like many have said, it’s far to early to know what things will be like in June, much less November.

    In any case, let’s all follow the guidances provided right now and stay healthy/safe as we work thru this together as a country.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    I think it’s all speculation. Some on here tend to be more optimistic, like myself. Some tend to be less optimistic like you. What it really comes down to is time and the developments made in the battle. Like many have said, it’s far to early to know what things will be like in June, much less November.

    In any case, let’s all follow the guidances provided right now and stay healthy/safe as we work thru this together as a country.

    This is the kind of game-changing tech that I think would be needed and widely used in order to have a semi-normal season: portable testing.

    I agree it's far too early to know specifics. Even generalities are hard. But in contravention to the usual dynamics, I'm now the one suggesting we all speculate more, and others are now asking we speculate less.

    But part of forecasting is extrapolating out from what we can say with a high degree of confidence (greater than 80 or 90%, for example) to the logical next steps.

    Seems like one could say with a very high degree of confidence that more than one team from more than one campus will have a player of coach test positive between November and March. (Does anyone doubt that such a positive test will occur?)

    If that occurs, the infected player or coach obviously won't participate. (Does anyone doubt this would happen?)

    If a player on a team has tested positive, and the remainder of the team hasn't since tested negative, that team won't play. (does anyone doubt this will happen?)

    So unless we have very very widespread, cheap, and fast testing being administered at least 2x per week, how would the season realistically occur, even w/o fans?

    In some sense college football and NFL will serve as a trial run for college bball and NBA, though I expect the above described dynamics will occur in college and pro football as well. And those teams and staffs and organizations are larger than basketball squads.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    This is the kind of game-changing tech that I think would be needed and widely used in order to have a semi-normal season: portable testing.

    I agree it's far too early to know specifics. Even generalities are hard. But in contravention to the usual dynamics, I'm now the one suggesting we all speculate more, and others are now asking we speculate less.

    But part of forecasting is extrapolating out from what we can say with a high degree of confidence (greater than 80 or 90%, for example) to the logical next steps.

    Seems like one could say with a very high degree of confidence that more than one team from more than one campus will have a player of coach test positive between November and March. (Does anyone doubt that such a positive test will occur?)

    If that occurs, the infected player or coach obviously won't participate. (Does anyone doubt this would happen?)

    If a player on a team has tested positive, and the remainder of the team hasn't since tested negative, that team won't play. (does anyone doubt this will happen?)

    So unless we have very very widespread, cheap, and fast testing being administered at least 2x per week, how would the season realistically occur, even w/o fans?

    In some sense college football and NFL will serve as a trial run for college bball and NBA, though I expect the above described dynamics will occur in college and pro football as well. And those teams and staffs and organizations are larger than basketball squads.
    All I’m saying is that it’s a long time until fall, let’s all let it play out. Everything else is speculation.

    To be clear, I’m not saying you’re wrong by any means. I just tend to think we will be in a completely different place come six months from now.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    All I’m saying is that it’s a long time until fall, let’s all let it play out. Everything else is speculation.

    To be clear, I’m not saying you’re wrong by any means. I just tend to think we will be in a completely different place come six months from now.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    The NBA draft in all likelihood from what I'm hearing here at work will be scheduled at best late August but probably late September. This isn't official yet but because the NBA has to have a playoff system in place for draft order and then teams will be allowed to start officially scouting that will start in late July. It is going to be a disaster for a lot of players leaving early this year who will find themselves playing in the Mongolia league because they got bad advice.

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