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Thread: What Is the “Drop Dead” date for knowing if there will be a 2020-21 NCAA men’s

  1. #26
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    I've been screaming for random testing for several weeks....its the only way to know the scope of the situation....if 50% have it or had it I can't see further shutting down, but maybe isolation of the vulnerable population which should have been done from the get go...

    lets try to be optimists...the thought of losing bb season is just unbearable...

    I can say that in Eastern Washington hospitals, there has been no big surge...many empty beds and many staff asked to stay home due to the low census....

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    Quote Originally Posted by sylean View Post
    I've been screaming for random testing for several weeks....its the only way to know the scope of the situation....if 50% have it or had it I can't see further shutting down, but maybe isolation of the vulnerable population which should have been done from the get go...

    lets try to be optimists...the thought of losing bb season is just unbearable...

    I can say that in Eastern Washington hospitals, there has been no big surge...many empty beds and many staff asked to stay home due to the low census....
    They would love to do random testing. They'd love to test everyone. There are simply not enough, even for those who have symptoms. The reasons for that are complex and get political, but on just the number alone, there are far too few even with symptoms. I heard from two friends in NYC this week that both "have it" but are "presumed positive" bc they're still limiting testing.

    FYI for anyone that hasn't heard, if you have cough, fever, and cannot smell or taste anything, you 99.9% have it. The lose of taste and smell is a weird but sorta helpful feature.
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  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by sylean View Post
    I've been screaming for random testing for several weeks....its the only way to know the scope of the situation....if 50% have it or had it I can't see further shutting down, but maybe isolation of the vulnerable population which should have been done from the get go...

    lets try to be optimists...the thought of losing bb season is just unbearable...

    I can say that in Eastern Washington hospitals, there has been no big surge...many empty beds and many staff asked to stay home due to the low census....
    It's getting harder and harder to be optimistic, but I sincerely appreciate the sentiment

    Almost half of the deaths yesterday, as well as the cumulative deaths, in the U.S. have happened in New York. Washington State, who was hard initially, obviously, has seen the death rate go down (per the numbers I follow and have in a spreadsheet). It might be time to consider (with emphasis on might) that maybe this is a regional/state-level crisis at this point and not a national emergency.

    I haven't been following other states closely, but there were 1000 deaths yesterday and about 600 were in Washington + New York. California is obviously a gigantic state and they added 20 deaths. (These numbers are rounded off).

    There is suspicion that this will taper down with the warmer weather, as the other respiratory viruses tend to do. This is supported by the relatively low impact on the southern states (another thing to consider when taking actions locally to combat this thing).

  4. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    It's getting harder and harder to be optimistic, but I sincerely appreciate the sentiment

    Almost half of the deaths yesterday, as well as the cumulative deaths, in the U.S. have happened in New York. Washington State, who was hard initially, obviously, has seen the death rate go down (per the numbers I follow and have in a spreadsheet). It might be time to consider (with emphasis on might) that maybe this is a regional/state-level crisis at this point and not a national emergency.

    I haven't been following other states closely, but there were 1000 deaths yesterday and about 600 were in Washington + New York. California is obviously a gigantic state and they added 20 deaths. (These numbers are rounded off).

    There is suspicion that this will taper down with the warmer weather, as the other respiratory viruses tend to do. This is supported by the relatively low impact on the southern states (another thing to consider when taking actions locally to combat this thing).
    You may want to take a look at New Orleans and Detroit. Both likely to be worse in the end.
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  5. #30
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    Sorry JP, but that speculation seems way off to me. We screwed up by not being prepared when we knew about the danger months in advance, and we still aren't dealing with this effectively at the national level as states have to try and outbid each other for the same equipment, and now you're implying doing exactly that all over again.

    If you don't think it's widespread in the US, have a look at the map. And the southern states. The state with the lowest number is South Dakota, with 129, and let's be honest -- that's like half of the state.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...state-by-state


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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    As far as fear about X% of the population getting this, we actually want the 80% who will have minimal symptoms to get it and get over it as quickly as possible, as long as we can minimize the effects on the vulnerable 20%. Doing so will eventually lower the impact on these 20%. This is easier said than done, but herd immunity is perhaps more important than a vaccine.

    For the sake of argument, what happens if this mutates (again) next year and the vaccine is worthless? We need a better solution than shutting down society during flu season every time this happens.

    In my opinion, healthy and young persons are living in fear of getting this when the real reason they don’t want it is so that they don’t pass it along to the most vulnerable in the population.

    My best friend in Seattle (and his family) contracted the virus. His two small children barely registered any symptoms at all. His wife was back up and going after two or three days of mild symptoms. He, a young man without health issues or anything that would put him in an at-risk category, spent nearly three weeks fighting this including some frightening days with difficulty breathing. The news reports we see measure this virus by how many people die. Some have reported on what percentage of confirmed positives require ventilation. But even if you survive and are never put on a ventilator, this virus can be scary and require hospitalization (even for young healthy adults).

    To me, it isn't just about not getting it so you don't pass it along to your parents or grandparents, it is also about staying healthy so you aren't in the hospital using resources that should be dedicated to someone in an at-risk group.

    The virus is out there. The idea that we are containing this or that your at-risk loved ones won't get it is just denial. But when they get it could mean the difference between life and death. Hopefully, by the time (or before) my parents get it, we will have a vaccine, and absent that, the hospitals won't be overwhelmed. I'm helping them stay isolated, I'm following the experts social distancing instructions, and as much as I'm certain Covid-20 and Covid-21 are going to happen and will be a pain in the rear and the world shouldn't shut down for them, I also think it is a really bad idea for all the young people to go get this right now because it isn't dangerous to them. First, it is dangerous to them. Second, even if they don't infect an at-risk person, they may pull resources away from treating that other person.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    It's getting harder and harder to be optimistic, but I sincerely appreciate the sentiment

    Almost half of the deaths yesterday, as well as the cumulative deaths, in the U.S. have happened in New York. Washington State, who was hard initially, obviously, has seen the death rate go down (per the numbers I follow and have in a spreadsheet). It might be time to consider (with emphasis on might) that maybe this is a regional/state-level crisis at this point and not a national emergency.

    I haven't been following other states closely, but there were 1000 deaths yesterday and about 600 were in Washington + New York. California is obviously a gigantic state and they added 20 deaths. (These numbers are rounded off).

    There is suspicion that this will taper down with the warmer weather, as the other respiratory viruses tend to do. This is supported by the relatively low impact on the southern states (another thing to consider when taking actions locally to combat this thing).
    Regarding testing and the relationship of the southern and midwest states for their low numbers might well be the fact that there are just not enough test kits to go around for all those states, at least that is what I have heard numerous times on the major news networks (PBS, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS and MSNBC - except for FOX). That being said, the remarks were that WHEN test kits are available in these areas, we will find out just how much this virus has spread. These states are pretty much rural in nature and those are the areas where treatment facilities are not as available as in the bigger metropolitan areas.

    Let's hope this reasoning is incorrect and then the spread might well reach a maximum in the next couple of weeks...this is about as optimistic as I can get at this time...


    Another person climbing on board the theory that we could very well have slowed down the spread of this virus had we acted sooner as in early January...we should have had a contingency plan all along just in case this happened which it did. I mean we have plans for every military situation throughout the world and neglected a plan for this!!! I don't know who might be at fault for this HUGE error in planning and re-acting instead of being pro-active but whomever it is, should be held accountable as thousands of deaths could have been avoided...IMO

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    - too soon to say, that is the only correct answer to this point
    - the bellwether is going to be football, watch college and nfl. they are the kings of all sport. the fanatical love of sport, even above baseball.
    - my prediction, just a prediction,.......that by early august the sporting world will clamor for football to be played, with spectators. the country will be sick and tired (no pun intended) of the virus affecting their daily lives, and will want and need football to bring them back to a sense of normalcy.

    - and if football gets off the ground in aug/sept, then college basketball will certainly follow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post

    I don't know who might be at fault for this HUGE error in planning and re-acting instead of being pro-active but whomever it is, should be held accountable as thousands of deaths could have been avoided...IMO
    I know what Harry Truman would have said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mgadfly View Post
    My best friend in Seattle (and his family) contracted the virus. His two small children barely registered any symptoms at all. His wife was back up and going after two or three days of mild symptoms. He, a young man without health issues or anything that would put him in an at-risk category, spent nearly three weeks fighting this including some frightening days with difficulty breathing. The news reports we see measure this virus by how many people die. Some have reported on what percentage of confirmed positives require ventilation. But even if you survive and are never put on a ventilator, this virus can be scary and require hospitalization (even for young healthy adults).

    To me, it isn't just about not getting it so you don't pass it along to your parents or grandparents, it is also about staying healthy so you aren't in the hospital using resources that should be dedicated to someone in an at-risk group.

    The virus is out there. The idea that we are containing this or that your at-risk loved ones won't get it is just denial. But when they get it could mean the difference between life and death. Hopefully, by the time (or before) my parents get it, we will have a vaccine, and absent that, the hospitals won't be overwhelmed. I'm helping them stay isolated, I'm following the experts social distancing instructions, and as much as I'm certain Covid-20 and Covid-21 are going to happen and will be a pain in the rear and the world shouldn't shut down for them, I also think it is a really bad idea for all the young people to go get this right now because it isn't dangerous to them. First, it is dangerous to them. Second, even if they don't infect an at-risk person, they may pull resources away from treating that other person.
    Similar to your story, the Spokesman did a story on a 29-year-old from Chelan in perfect health who had chest pains and difficulty breathing after he contracted the virus. And the article stated that 38% of those hospitalized are between the ages of 20 and 54. So, I think you're right that there would be consequences to just throw 20-54-olds to the fire and let them endure the virus to build herd immunity. But I'll still take my cues from epidemiologists if that's what they suggest.

    https://www.spokesman.com/stories/20...a-painful-les/
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    But I'll still take my cues from epidemiologists if that's what they suggest.

    https://www.spokesman.com/stories/20...a-painful-les/
    Are any epidemiologists encouraging people to ignore the social distancing?

    I've read some really interesting articles about economists vs epidemiologists and how they look at the world differently. But maybe I missed something?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mgadfly View Post
    Are any epidemiologists encouraging people to ignore the social distancing?

    I've read some really interesting articles about economists vs epidemiologists and how they look at the world differently. But maybe I missed something?
    Not that I'm aware of. Just saying if they changed their tune, I'd be likely to follow their lead.
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    Questions: Are there any figures of how many that had the virus, went to the hospital, were put on ventilators and were able to walk out of the hospital? Would that figure be kinda important to know one chances?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    Questions: Are there any figures of how many that had the virus, went to the hospital, were put on ventilators and were able to walk out of the hospital? Would that figure be kinda important to know one chances?
    This is the source link in the Spokesman article:
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

    Obviously, the problem many have been discussing is that if too many get sick at the same time, your chances of walking out of a hospital goes down. So your "chances" are not a static number.
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    This is the source link in the Spokesman article:
    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

    Obviously, the problem many have been discussing is that if too many get sick at the same time, your chances of walking out of a hospital goes down. So your "chances" are not a static number.
    Thank you for sharing...very interesting and thankful I'm not 75 as it sure doesn't look good for anyone 75+ who gets the virus and goes to ICU...

    However, after reading this study, I'd still like to know the % of people that are able to walk out after being in ICU...if it was in this study then I missed it entirely

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    Thank you for sharing...very interesting and thankful I'm not 75 as it sure doesn't look good for anyone 75+ who gets the virus and goes to ICU...

    However, after reading this study, I'd still like to know the % of people that are able to walk out after being in ICU...if it was in this study then I missed it entirely
    The bottom table has the ICU admission and the fatality rate for each age group. It's not explicitly listed, but I believe you could determine it with the equation:

    Survival rate after ICU = ICU admission rate - Fatality Rate.
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    https://www.vox.com/2020/3/28/211974...-rural-america

    "On Friday, Alaska reported 85 cases and its first Covid-19-related death. Shana Theobald, another doctor on Kodiak Island, explains the grim calculus for her state: Given that experts from the CDC estimate 40 to 70 percent of the state’s 737,500 people may eventually contract Covid-19, at least 295,000 Alaskans could get sick. Based on initial reports, 20 percent, or 59,000 people, will need hospital care.

    Alaska only has 1,500 general hospital beds. And even if as few as five percent of Covid-19 patients become critically ill (a conservative estimate), that’s a minimum of 14,750 people needing ICU beds. And Theobald estimates that Alaska only has around 200. If that many people get sick over the next one to three months, only one in 25 people who need intensive care will be able to get it. Even if you halved the number of Alaskans infected with Covid-19 to 20 percent, the system will still be over capacity — by thousands of people."

    This assumption that people will be able to get INTO a hospital might need some examination.

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    Assuming that the model estimate is correct, over what time span does this occur. Your calculations have people going to the hospital on the same day. It would be interesting to know how long is the average hospital stay prior to release or death. What does the curve look like for needs on a day to day basis. What is their best guess?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    Questions: Are there any figures of how many that had the virus, went to the hospital, were put on ventilators and were able to walk out of the hospital? Would that figure be kinda important to know one chances?
    Fewer than 1 in 4 patients who have been put on ventilators have ultimately survived.
    That implies that ventilators are extremely costly relative to life years saved but perhaps the slight upside is that shortage of ventilators might not end up being responsible for the deaths that some imagine. The scarce health resources would likely save more lives via other preventative interventions.

    edit: maybe more like 50% from recent UK data. Here's a good source. The overalll rate at which ventilators save otherwise doomed patients is worth paying attention to.
    Last edited by LTownZag; 04-02-2020 at 03:32 PM.

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    I think the 1 in 4 number is for patients with prior critical conditions.

    I think the ventilator rate in China was about 25% and the mortality rate was 3.4%.

    One major national U.S. health care provider told me they had a mortality rate of about 2% and a ventilator rate of about 20%. That was a couple weeks ago and maybe a bunch of the 20% were still being cared for and will ultimately die from it, but that wasn't the impression I received.

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    Nonsense Scrooner. China lied and hide the deaths and the disease. Hard to prepare when the source of the disease lies about it and hides the truth.Let’s not start your political agenda. It’s not welcome. We’ve kept it pretty clean from politics so far.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Nonsense Scrooner. China lied and hide the deaths and the disease. Hard to prepare when the source of the disease lies about it and hides the truth.Let’s not start your political agenda. It’s not welcome. We’ve kept it pretty clean from politics so far.
    To begin, I totally agree that China lied to the world about: the virus, the number infected and of course the number of deaths from the virus...BUT Doc, the US has extremely accurate intelligence gathering sources and no doubt “WE” knew something was up and that intel couldn’t be divulged as those sources could have been jeopardized, so I understand why the virus wasn’t publicized BUT someone in our government could have set a plan in motion that might have delayed or at the very least use a “finger” and plugged the hole in the dyke. As I said in a previous post that someone is to blame, don’t know who BUT that person or persons should be publicly condemned.

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    Well I’m not so sure about thaT.We only know what we know. I do know China would NOT allow us in to help them . It’s pretty closed there. A friend of mine used to work with me at Mass General and he’s now the Doctor to the higher ups in China.. I asked him since he’s there quarterly. He says he didn’t know so I’m not so sure we knew. He’s living in LA and was the Dean if USC school of Medicine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Well I’m not so sure about thaT.We only know what we know. I do know China would allow us in to help them . It’s pretty closed there. A friend of mine used to work with me at Mass General and he’s now the Doctor to the higher ups. I asked him since he’s there quarterly. He says he didn’t know so I’m not so sure we knew. He’s living in LA and was the Dean if USC school of Medicine.
    The Washington Post ran an article that said US Intelligence was letting government officials know in classified briefings in January that China was minimizing the threat of the virus.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...597_story.html
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Nonsense Scrooner. China lied and hide the deaths and the disease. Hard to prepare when the source of the disease lies about it and hides the truth.Let’s not start your political agenda. It’s not welcome. We’ve kept it pretty clean from politics so far.
    The WHO reported this thing on 12/31/2019. We had the first case in our country on the exact same date South Korea did. They prepared, we didn't. Look at their confirmed cases and deaths vs ours (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). It isn't hard to see that our country screwed this up big time.

    You can blame China all you want, and you're right they're terrible, but South Korea had the same information we did.
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