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Thread: How are you doing? (and Netflix etc recommendations)

  1. #101
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    https://www.wsj.com/articles/infecti...ak-11585162134


    Things may be turning....surely hope so.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    Only responding because I’m being asked to directly. As I have stated, this is a complex issues with competing priorities. I’d hope you would agree.

    I’ll also state for the third time. Listen to public health officials. Follow their recommendations. That is what I am doing.

    I also know that you’re exceedingly bright and I’m sure you understand that there “might” have been a different approach to this issue that may have kept death rates down by perhaps taking measures for the at risk population. What if’s aren’t productive though and we’re already on the path we’re on and no one is stopping this train.

    The data you are citing is no doubt sound. BUT, it is by definition incomplete, agreed?

    We are, in the US, in the midst of or just shy of peak outbreak. None of the numbers are broken down demographically. The data doesn’t tell us a helluva lot yet.

    Edited to add this article, which is the basis for my thoughts on the data being incomplete:

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

    (essentially the positives results are extremely skewed due to the scarcity of tests worldwide and the result that only those with severe symptoms or those at high risk are or have been tested. Not a reliable dataset)

    We’ll only know if we reacted correctly 6 months or more from now.

    Zagfan24 - Perhaps you have a point about it not being useful to compare Covid 19 to the common flu. There have been serious novel coronavirus outbreaks within the last 2 decades. Is Covid 19 the worst of these? If not, how did we react to/handle the others?
    real stats in Pierce County

    3,051 tested
    155 confirmed cases
    115 resolved
    6 hospitalized
    2 deaths

    236 available hospital beds


    flu over same time period in PIerce County

    4,218 positive
    161 admitted to hospital

    12 deaths including 2 pediatrics


    same time periods different set of facts and interesting to see which one gets no media attention and which one gets all the attention
    Basketball...The Toy Department of Life

    Don't mess wth happy...Coach Few

  3. #103
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    Is there any chance we could get back to the point of this thread? I thought and enjoyed the first few posts because it was about how people are doing under stay at home orders and what to watch, etc. Or maybe move this to the FOO.
    “When I get a little money I buy books; and if any is left I buy food and clothes.”

    ~ Desiderius Erasmus

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Former1dog: “ we are, in the US, in the midst or just shy of peak outbreak”

    MDABE80: “ if I have to guess, [you did not] this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks”

    If on April 15 it’s clear that you both were hugely mistaken, should we expect to see either of you publicly acknowledge it and change some of your fundamental priors that have been foundational of your thinking and predictions thus far?
    Dude,

    Take care of yourself, listen to public health officials(4th time I’ve said that). Stop asking strangers on the internet stupid questions. Abe can speak for himself, but I’m pretty sure he told you and everyone else to listen to Dr. Fauci.

  5. #105
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    Ltown was bounced a few weeks ago by Reno as I recall. He's on ignore since. Yes by all means....Tony's the greatest . Former, I must point how how much I've enjoyed your thoughts from your posts today. We're not that far apart.

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Ltown was bounced a few weeks ago by Reno as I recall. He's on ignore since. Yes by all means....Tony's the greatest . Former, I must point how how much I've enjoyed your thoughts from your posts today. We're not that far apart.
    Abe,

    I should ignore also, but it gets my hackles up when someone intentionally misquoted me to try and win some imaginary argument. I tried to make a few thoughtful points, essentially about the allocation of limited resources that is all.

    Like you have said about Dr. Fauci, I’ve continually made the point to listen to the experts especially the ones in your area.

    I appreciate your kind words, Abe, have a nice evening.

  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Radbooks View Post
    Is there any chance we could get back to the point of this thread? I thought and enjoyed the first few posts because it was about how people are doing under stay at home orders and what to watch, etc. Or maybe move this to the FOO.
    You’re right. (Except the moving to the Foo part. The Foo is sacred)...

    I apologize for my part in getting this thread off topic.

    Here a link to some stuff I’ll be binge watching as the days go by:

    http://guboards.spokesmanreview.com/...40#post1514240

  8. #108
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    F1D & Abe. I tend to agree with both of you. If you follow the math and take the emotion out of it, it seems that the response is not commensurate with the overall threat. But since there is no alternate/parallel universe, we are erring on the side of caution. Hopefully lessons are learned and we come out of this for the better as a nation and more prepared "next time".

    Now back on topic. I'm trying to stay busy and not watch TV. 20 more degrees would make it a lot easier!! But, I really recommend Longmire on Nexflix. I thought that show was really well done and was not happy when it was cancelled.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Former1dog: “ we are, in the US, in the midst or just shy of peak outbreak”

    MDABE80: “ if I have to guess, [you did not] this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks”

    If on April 15 it’s clear that you both were hugely mistaken, should we expect to see either of you publicly acknowledge it and change some of your fundamental priors that have been foundational of your thinking and predictions thus far?
    Hey Ltown. I don’t think anyone here wants to intentionally mislead anyone or put them in any danger. Your posting is coming across as too confrontational. Some here have a different perspective on what’s happening and that includes me. I hope we are correct and your version turns out to be wrong. In the end, after a couple weeks we will all have to reassess where we are and what steps will need to be taken. No matter who is “right” it won’t be time for finger pointing.

    Back to the original idea of this thread.

    I really miss Mass. My wife and I have a unique opportunity that I wish everyone could take advantage of. I usually open the church at 5:30 on Sunday morning. Turn the heaters and the lights on. Carry a copy of the bulletin up front and plAce it on the organists counter. Straighten things up a bit. Little things. Consequently I have the keys. So, last Sunday my wife and I sat in our regular pew, prayed and read the Mass readings. We sat for awhile by ourselves. Very peaceful.

    I’m confident this will pass. I hope we won’t have to endure too much more pain. It’s time to think of others and what they are going through. I have food and shelter. I am healthy and so is my family. There are a lot of folks that are struggling with grief and fear. Let’s take care of each other.

    Please be safe and wash your damned hands!! Haha

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    Abe,

    I should ignore also, but it gets my hackles up when someone intentionally misquoted me to try and win some imaginary argument. I tried to make a few thoughtful points, essentially about the allocation of limited resources that is all.
    Hi Former1dog -I did not intentionally misquote you.
    I just re-read to double check, and I don’t even see how I was (unintentionally)misquoting you. I copied and pasted what you wrote in post #93 at 2:47 pm.
    The last thing I’d like to do is attribute a view to you or others which you don’t genuinely hold. If you’ll let me know how my quote was a mistake, I will be happy to edit it and apologize.

    Would you, likewise, be willing to admit mistake and apologize if you are unable to show that I didn't actually just copy and paste your comment?

    I do see that in the span of 2hr40 mins (post 79 to 93) your view went from:
    “ I’m personally optimistic that we’re going to see peak outbreak within a week or two. We might even be experiencing it now. Time will tell. “

    To:”we are, in the US, in the midst or just shy of peak outbreak”.

    What did you learn in those intervening hours that adjusted your confidence and assessment of our situation?
    Last edited by LTownZag; 03-26-2020 at 01:29 PM.

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Hey Ltown. I don’t think anyone here wants to intentionally mislead anyone or put them in any danger. Your posting is coming across as too confrontational. Some here have a different perspective on what’s happening and that includes me. I hope we are correct and your version turns out to be wrong. In the end, after a couple weeks we will all have to reassess where we are and what steps will need to be taken. No matter who is “right” it won’t be time for finger pointing.

    Back to the original idea of this thread.

    I really miss Mass. My wife and I have a unique opportunity that I wish everyone could take advantage of. I usually open the church at 5:30 on Sunday morning. Turn the heaters and the lights on. Carry a copy of the bulletin up front and plAce it on the organists counter. Straighten things up a bit. Little things. Consequently I have the keys. So, last Sunday my wife and I sat in our regular pew, prayed and read the Mass readings. We sat for awhile by ourselves. Very peaceful.

    I’m confident this will pass. I hope we won’t have to endure too much more pain. It’s time to think of others and what they are going through. I have food and shelter. I am healthy and so is my family. There are a lot of folks that are struggling with grief and fear. Let’s take care of each other.

    Please be safe and wash your damned hands!! Haha
    thanks for a nice thoughtful post. Love your story about the church. Thank God that God is reachable outside the church building too...
    I agree with you about thinking about others....Nice touch. That's a 3 pointer.

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Are u non stop to Spo? If not, split the difference w wife and consider driving to Salt Lake City and grab a shorter non stop. That’s 10 hours drive about. A much more humane airport.
    Non stop to Spokane on American, 2 hrs 40 minutes.
    To Fish & Game: Keep streams stocked well for Mr. Few!

  13. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    Comorbidities are useful in risk assessment and have nothing to do a person’s intrinsic value. All of these draconian measures that limit the freedom of person’s who are low risk for complications are to protect the most vulnerable persons, and show how much we do care about these persons.
    Thank you!
    To Fish & Game: Keep streams stocked well for Mr. Few!

  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopaholic View Post
    real stats in Pierce County

    3,051 tested
    155 confirmed cases
    115 resolved
    6 hospitalized
    2 deaths

    236 available hospital beds


    flu over same time period in PIerce County

    4,218 positive
    161 admitted to hospital

    12 deaths including 2 pediatrics


    same time periods different set of facts and interesting to see which one gets no media attention and which one gets all the attention
    Interesting. As of this morning here in Arizona they have tested over 16,000 and have 408 positive with only 6 dead.

    This simple data is probably low because Arizona is one of the furthest behind in testing. Considering greater Phoenix area has 4.5 million people those numbers are pretty low for fatalities I believe.

    As most know the City of the Sun has a huge number of 55+ retirement communities. The Sun Cities in Surprise have 27,000 homes alone but there are dozens of other retirement communities with anywhere from 2,000 to 6,000 homes scattered in the valley. I can't imagine how bad it could be should the virus get into any of these communities where in many cases the average age exceeds 75. What most of these communities are doing is shutting down all activities like baseball, basketball, pickle ball (hugely popular), tennis, pools, and Bocce etc. Everyone is hunkered down in the house but the streets are full of people walking and bike riding keeping a good distance from each other. That is virtually all there is to do but they are still allowing golf on the courses (thank goodness) with some interesting mitigation rules. The restaurants are closed in the communities but have take out windows during certain hours. That alone is risky because you have no idea if the cooks and servers who are from the outside are infected. They touch the packaging and your credit card and wear no gloves so it makes one take pause. To my knowledge there hasn't been a case in one of these enclosed communities thus far but I don't know that for certain. I know that in Palm Desert there is one case in the Sun City there from a resident that returned from a cruise, but no word on that in greater PX. Snowbirds from all over the country are in the same boat my wife and are wanting to get to where our real homes are because most of our family are there.

    In spite of the higher risk for infection from Covid 19 than regular flu, I can say I made hundreds of flights when working and never contracted flu from a flight so I think we will chance it. My doc says I'm pretty robust for my age and thinks I'd survive it even if I did get it. By what might be a stroke of luck I've been on Hydroxychloroquine every day for 18 years for Lupus so possibly I have some protection anyway. My wife, not so much but she's slim, strong and still beautiful if that counts for anything. Cheers dear friends...
    To Fish & Game: Keep streams stocked well for Mr. Few!

  15. #115
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    A viewing suggestion: Rent (Netflix only has it in DVD form -- no streaming) the 2008 film "Hurricane Season," which is based upon a true story.

    "One year after Hurricane Katrina, Al Collins (Forest Whitaker), a high school basketball coach in Marrero, La., builds a team from players who attended five different schools before Katrina struck and molds them into a formidable squad. Together, they struggle against impossible odds in their pursuit of a state championship in this stirring underdog drama, written by the screenwriters of The Great Debaters.

    Cast Forest Whitaker, Isaiah Washington, Robbie Jones, Eric D. Hill Jr., Taraji P. Henson, Bow Wow, Khleo Thomas, Lil Wayne, China Anne McClain, Courtney B. Vance, Bonnie Hunt, Michael Gaston, Irma P. Hall, Tarra Riggs
    SLOZag
    "Kids come here to better their own lives, not ours. If you take a player’s failures as a personal affront…. check yourself." - Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by 229SintoZag View Post
    I am curious about this. My reading indicates that COVID is more easily transmitted than the flu (ie one infected person will infect almost three others in average, versus 1.2 for the flu), requires more hospitalizations per 1000 people, and results in approximately ten times as many deaths per 1000 people as the flu.

    If this data is wrong F1d and Abe please share your information with me so I can understand how I'm missing the fact that we are shutting down our entire country for something that's no worse than a standard flu.

    Here's an article I read that had some of my information:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-and-different

    229

    https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.c...71-2334-14-480 :
    Annual influenza epidemics occur worldwide and cause substantial morbidity and mortality [1]. In the United States between 5% and 20% of the population are infected with influenza every year [2], resulting in between 3,000 and 49,000 influenza-associated deaths [3].
    For starters, the data we are working with on influenza is terrible (equally bad ranges are reported by the CDC). If we were told that Covid-19 caused 3,000 to 49,000 deaths we'd be pulling our hair out. Some of this is variability in severity of flu season, but the rest of the variability comes from uncertainty about the actual numbers (the CDC explains how they come up with the estimates on their influenza web page) Anyhow, the point of the linking this article is this bit about reproduction number (R), which is defined here as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case:

    The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1.
    The estimated R value for Covid-19 is 2.2, per https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/:
    This data also showed that this novel epidemic doubled about every seven days, whereas the basic reproduction number (R0 - R naught) is 2.2. In other words, on average, each patient transmits the infection to an additional 2.2 individuals. Of note, estimations of the R0 of the SARS-CoV epidemic in 2002-2003 were approximately 3.
    There's a lot of variability with the flu based on the season and the strain, but the take home for me is that the reproduction number potential has potentially been overestimated by the media. However, I don't think it is an overstatement to say that Covid-19 has been worse than most

  17. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by spike_jr View Post
    If you follow the math and take the emotion out of it, it seems that the response is not commensurate with the overall threat.
    Source for this math?

  18. #118
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    http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/cal...esi_ULTIMO.pdf



    Edit: I’m going to leave this up for discussion but I don’t speak Italian and cannot vet this out. The implication via a secondary source is that the death rate in Italy is seasonal and that this season is similar to years past in 65 year olds.
    Last edited by JPtheBeasta; 03-26-2020 at 06:51 AM.

  19. #119
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    Food for thought on how we might have approached this outbreak differently. In my opinion, it is to late now to adopt the South Korean method of containment, but perhaps we can learn from them for the next time we are threatened with a pandemic.

    Short version, they didn’t shut down their country/economy. They used technology intelligently to identify those infected and used relentless public education to get those infected to take the right steps to self isolate and to also identify who may have come in contact with them. Pretty fascinating read if you’ve got the time.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/w...ten-curve.html

  20. #120
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    Some shows I am watching:

    Netflix:

    Dirty Money
    Tiger King

    HBO:

    McMillions
    The Outsiders

    I really like Dirty Money and McMillions.
    Bring back the OCC

  21. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by gu03alum View Post
    Some shows I am watching:

    Netflix:

    Dirty Money
    Tiger King

    HBO:

    McMillions
    The Outsiders

    I really like Dirty Money and McMillions.
    McMillions was awesome!

  22. #122
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    Netflix: The Tiger King


    You can thank me later. I cannot begin to tell you the amount of times Mrs. Woohoo and I snap-looked at each other while watching this, or the amount of times we both just said 'Whhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaattt????'. hahaha
    Allow myself to introduce....myself...

  23. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by gozagswoohoo View Post
    Netflix: The Tiger King


    You can thank me later. I cannot begin to tell you the amount of times Mrs. Woohoo and I snap-looked at each other while watching this, or the amount of times we both just said 'Whhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaattt????'. hahaha
    I have only seen one episode so far and good lord Joe Exotic is entertaining.
    Bring back the OCC

  24. #124
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    https://nymag.com/strategist/article...terilizer.html

    I have been wondering if UV would be of any help. This article, while not a scientific or medical treatise, seems to imply that it would.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  25. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/cal...esi_ULTIMO.pdf



    Edit: I’m going to leave this up for discussion but I don’t speak Italian and cannot vet this out. The implication via a secondary source is that the death rate in Italy is seasonal and that this season is similar to years past in 65 year olds.
    Since the deaths have been mostly concentrated in Lombardia, I can only wonder if the same chart for that region would have a different implication.
    Agent provocateur

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