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Thread: How are you doing? (and Netflix etc recommendations)

  1. #76
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    As does using language like "the worst of the worst".

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Understood. It was just an honest question, not here, but it has been stated, by actual lawmakers in some cases, that older people may need to sacrifice themselves for the economy... that shows a level of devaluation.
    I’m glad I’m not the one having to make those decisions.

    One potential compromise that I see— which would be a tall order, still— would be to do the social distancing and shelter in place stuff with high risk folks only, but the only way that works is for low-risk persons to avoid them. Contact with the virus would be inevitable, still, though but would be less than if we did nothing.

    I have a friend who works in the ED who got sick and had to skip out on family functions and stayed home under self-quarantine in general until he got his (negative) results back. He was actually hopeful that he got the virus because he would not have had to worry about it any more. In a way, if we can get a lot of healthy young people to get this thing and get over it we would all be in better shape. I say this all from the relative comfort of AZ and not from New York, which might change my perspective greatly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scrooner View Post
    As does using language like "the worst of the worst".
    Perhaps “sickest of the sick” would give u comfort Scrooner. Probably a better description.

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    I want to make some comments, but it is important that I provide some context. Like most/all of you I’m following the guidelines recommended by my local, state, and national healthcare officials in order to do my part and my families part in mitigating the Covid 19 outbreak. We essentially have been sheltered in place for our 10th day. I have been out a few times to pick up essential supplies, but that is it.

    With that said, I’m concerned greatly about the balance of security vs liberty, especially the economic variety. When all of this started my attitude was that if an overreaction was the worst thing that happened, I would consider that a pretty good result. I’m unsure of my own opinion anymore.

    I’m personally optimistic that we’re going to see peak outbreak within a week or two. We might even be experiencing it now. Time will tell.

    The thing is, none of the national statistics on this disease are particularly bad when compared with the regular run of the mill flu. In fact, the worldwide numbers haven’t yet hit the US domestic numbers for this years flue season.

    Consider that according to the CDC, this flu season has included 38 million flu diagnoses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths. This is a very average year for the flu. And yet, there have been no news stories of note, no noteworthy national mitigation campaigns, no federal relief efforts and certainly no earnest requests from well intentioned folks (like the ones in this thread) to protect the more vulnerable amongst. Those more vulnerable most certainly make up most of the 23,000 dead this season, by the way.

    Our collective response to Covid 19 has devastated our economy and put the most economically at risk in our country into potentially life altering bad situations. When it all shakes out, I very much doubt the health effects of this outbreak will be even close to the common flu, which we all seem to essentially ignore year after year.

    And, as distasteful as many of you will find this statement , I’ll be wondering if it was all worth it.

  5. #80
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    Agree
    "The Tipping Point - How little things can make a big difference" Malcom Gladwell

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    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    I want to make some comments, but it is important that I provide some context. Like most/all of you I’m following the guidelines recommended by my local, state, and national healthcare officials in order to do my part and my families part in mitigating the Covid 19 outbreak. We essentially have been sheltered in place for our 10th day. I have been out a few times to pick up essential supplies, but that is it.

    With that said, I’m concerned greatly about the balance of security vs liberty, especially the economic variety. When all of this started my attitude was that if an overreaction was the worst thing that happened, I would consider that a pretty good result. I’m unsure of my own opinion anymore.

    I’m personally optimistic that we’re going to see peak outbreak within a week or two. We might even be experiencing it now. Time will tell.

    The thing is, none of the national statistics on this disease are particularly bad when compared with the regular run of the mill flu. In fact, the worldwide numbers haven’t yet hit the US domestic numbers for this years flue season.

    Consider that according to the CDC, this flu season has included 38 million flu diagnoses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths. This is a very average year for the flu. And yet, there have been no news stories of note, no noteworthy national mitigation campaigns, no federal relief efforts and certainly no earnest requests from well intentioned folks (like the ones in this thread) to protect the more vulnerable amongst. Those more vulnerable most certainly make up most of the 23,000 dead this season, by the way.

    Our collective response to Covid 19 has devastated our economy and put the most economically at risk in our country into potentially life altering bad situations. When it all shakes out, I very much doubt the health effects of this outbreak will be even close to the common flu, which we all seem to essentially ignore year after year.

    And, as distasteful as many of you will find this statement , I’ll be wondering if it was all worth it.

    I will just caution and say, we haven't see the actual death count on this... not by a longshot... based on simple statistics... it is going to go way up and that isn't even getting into what impact lack of supplies will do to the numbers (much like in Italy).

    One thing the flu doesn't do, it doesn't kill thousands of people in less than one month... I don't think it is fair to compare months of flu season to weeks of Covid-19. I think it is the rapidity of the infections and the high hospitalization rates (NY is averaging in the 15-20% range) that differentiate from the flu. That being said, we have tools to mitigate or lessen the flu, just that many don't bother with them... which sadly contributes to the death toll
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

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    I echo Former’s sentiment. I hope this pandemic raises awareness of influenza. The CDC has a number called P&I, which describes death rate due to pneumonia and influenza, and it is at 7%. It is a catch all, but is very meaningful in showing the burden that respiratory illness puts on our elderly and sickest persons in society. (Covid-19 is hovering around 1% in America, for comparison). If you try to look up flu data they track so many different strains that it is mind-numbing.

    I like the idea of being more thoughtful about avoided grandma and grandpa (and other high risk folks) when sick. I like the early hours for at stores for high-risk persons to go shop and think we, as a society, consider continuing that practice. I will likely have a much lower threshold for calling in sick in the future so that I don’t expose people to what I have. This virus could fundamentally change how our society does things, and this could be a very good thing.

    As controversial as this pandemic has been, there will be one down the road that we all agree on. At that time, we will all need to be ready and willing to do our part (i.e. sacrifice some personal liberties) to help, in my opinion.

  8. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    I echo Former’s sentiment. I hope this pandemic raises awareness of influenza. The CDC has a number called P&I, which describes death rate due to pneumonia and influenza, and it is at 7%. It is a catch all, but is very meaningful in showing the burden that respiratory illness puts on our elderly and sickest persons in society. (Covid-19 is hovering around 1% in America, for comparison). If you try to look up flu data they track so many different strains that it is mind-numbing.

    I like the idea of being more thoughtful about avoided grandma and grandpa (and other high risk folks) when sick. I like the early hours for at stores for high-risk persons to go shop and think we, as a society, consider continuing that practice. I will likely have a much lower threshold for calling in sick in the future so that I don’t expose people to what I have. This virus could fundamentally change how our society does things, and this could be a very good thing.

    As controversial as this pandemic has been, there will be one down the road that we all agree on. At that time, we will all need to be ready and willing to do our part (i.e. sacrifice some personal liberties) to help, in my opinion.
    Agree totally on this. I really do think this will fundamentally change our society, perhaps for the better. We will be far more aware of how we all impact each other when sick. All of this remote working may actually end up a positive in that businesses may become more flexible about being physically at work and if you insist on working sick, they'll request you do it from home.

    Humans are by nature social creatures... this isolation is likely to also have a big impact on mental health in the short-term.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I will just caution and say, we haven't see the actual death count on this... not by a longshot... based on simple statistics... it is going to go way up and that isn't even getting into what impact lack of supplies will do to the numbers (much like in Italy).

    One thing the flu doesn't do, it doesn't kill thousands of people in less than one month... I don't think it is fair to compare months of flu season to weeks of Covid-19. I think it is the rapidity of the infections and the high hospitalization rates (NY is averaging in the 15-20% range) that differentiate from the flu. That being said, we have tools to mitigate or lessen the flu, just that many don't bother with them... which sadly contributes to the death toll

    I promise not to get into a back and forth with you or anyone else. Everyone should use the gray matter between their ears and make good/informed decisions for themselves and their families. That should include listening to and following the recommendations of public health officials, especially local ones.

    With that said, Covid 19 struck China in November and so therefore has been active for 4 months, roughly what we consider a full flu season in the US. They reported roughly 80,000 cases and 3000 deaths. I don’t think China’s numbers are likely to be honest numbers, but even if they are lying by a factor of five, that still isn’t an average flu season in the US. I will close my comments completely on this topic by noting that the Chinese reportedly mishandled the outbreak for the better part of 6 weeks, so my assumption would be the numbers could have been much lower.

    God Bless everyone. Stay healthy and happy. Go Zags!

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    “thing the flu doesn't do, it doesn't kill thousands of people in less than one month.”.. I don't think it is fair to compare months of flu season to weeks of Covid-19. I think it is the rapidity of the infections and the high hospitalization rates (NY is averaging in the 15-20% range) . LIZ. Yes the flu does kill thousands in a month. It’s far more malignant the corona. S so far anyway.
    Last edited by MDABE80; 03-25-2020 at 05:24 PM.

  11. #86
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    A few thoughts:

    Comparing COVID-19 to the flu is really not a good way of understanding the risks of the current outbreak. The virus appears to be more contagious and less symptomatic when first contagious (a huge problem). We don't have a vaccine for coronavirus. We are also not as knowledgeable about its treatment. There is evidence that seasonal weather will not be as helpful in causing numbers to decline. Mostly, we just don't have any complete data at this time so it's really hard to make any sweeping conclusions.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-and-different

    In addition, the lack of PPE (personal protective equipment) and intensive care level medical equipment is a major secondary factor causing a need for "flattening the curve." Much like the financial crisis nearly boiled over if people started a run on the banks, once hospitals hit a tipping point things can get much worse, much more quickly.

    I'll repeat myself from an earlier thread that it's really a false dichotomy to equate fear with social distancing. One is an emotion, one is an action. I think a lot can be said for listening to and trusting the experts. Dr. Fauci has been in his position since the Reagan years...his expertise is worth following.

    This pandemic will have an insanely devastating impact on the economy, but I don't think we can really judge whether the quarantines/business shutdowns/social distancing/etc. will make the impact any worse than if the virus was allowed to spread, relatively unchecked, causing mass employee absences and a huge strain on our medical system. Best case scenario, these interventions help lessen the overall impact and allow us to get back into normal functioning sooner; rather than taking ineffective half measures that increase the number of cases and deaths. Milwaukee is dealing with the potential loss of the DNC, Summerfest, and the Ryder Cup. It would be a catastrophic loss....and those numbers do have a real impact on physical and mental health. That's what it is going to be so important for our leaders to put together appropriate programs and interventions to help people, especially our most vulnerable and impoverished, through these times.

  12. #87
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    I am curious about this. My reading indicates that COVID is more easily transmitted than the flu (ie one infected person will infect almost three others in average, versus 1.2 for the flu), requires more hospitalizations per 1000 people, and results in approximately ten times as many deaths per 1000 people as the flu.

    If this data is wrong F1d and Abe please share your information with me so I can understand how I'm missing the fact that we are shutting down our entire country for something that's no worse than a standard flu.

    Here's an article I read that had some of my information:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-and-different

    229

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    I want to make some comments, but it is important that I provide some context. Like most/all of you I’m following the guidelines recommended by my local, state, and national healthcare officials in order to do my part and my families part in mitigating the Covid 19 outbreak. We essentially have been sheltered in place for our 10th day. I have been out a few times to pick up essential supplies, but that is it.

    With that said, I’m concerned greatly about the balance of security vs liberty, especially the economic variety. When all of this started my attitude was that if an overreaction was the worst thing that happened, I would consider that a pretty good result. I’m unsure of my own opinion anymore.

    I’m personally optimistic that we’re going to see peak outbreak within a week or two. We might even be experiencing it now. Time will tell.

    The thing is, none of the national statistics on this disease are particularly bad when compared with the regular run of the mill flu. In fact, the worldwide numbers haven’t yet hit the US domestic numbers for this years flue season.

    Consider that according to the CDC, this flu season has included 38 million flu diagnoses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths. This is a very average year for the flu. And yet, there have been no news stories of note, no noteworthy national mitigation campaigns, no federal relief efforts and certainly no earnest requests from well intentioned folks (like the ones in this thread) to protect the more vulnerable amongst. Those more vulnerable most certainly make up most of the 23,000 dead this season, by the way.

    Our collective response to Covid 19 has devastated our economy and put the most economically at risk in our country into potentially life altering bad situations. When it all shakes out, I very much doubt the health effects of this outbreak will be even close to the common flu, which we all seem to essentially ignore year after year.

    And, as distasteful as many of you will find this statement , I’ll be wondering if it was all worth it.
    I think it becomes a Catch-22. If we are successful and we do control the outbreak to the point that there is not a substantial number of deaths, then by virtue of the fact that we were successful this will mean to some that it wasn't worth it. Some will only think the effort was worth it if there is a huge death toll in order to demonstrate that it was a real threat.

    It is sort of like guessing if you want to take the effort to dodge a bullet when you are not certain if the bullet is really going kill you or not.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
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  14. #89
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    Just thought of something else. If the numbers do skyrocket and we get 100,000+ deaths... what impact will that have on the life insurance industry? As it is I suspect that they are bracing for a huge hit.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    For me I can use common sense. If I have a medical problem I go to the doctor, not a mechanic. If I have a car problem, I go to a mechanic, not a doctor. If I'm trying to learn about an unknown virus I go to learn from a scientist who studies these things, I don't go to a teacher. Listen. I have to admit to myself and to you that I am not a scientist or doctor. I do not really know very much about this virus at all. For me to assume that I do and share my OPINIONS I only hurt you and my society. MDAbe said early on that he trusts Dr Fauci...So do I. And I trust Dr Deborah Birx. Why would THEY want to harm us. I believe we are at war with this virus, and it is far more serious than some think. I understand that millions do not believe these two specialist, and imo they are harming us as a Nation. I pray that we as Americans can put our egos aside, and listen to Fauci and Birx as if they are OUR coach Few. AS for me I'm practicing "social distancing" six feet, washing hands ect...and staying in unless I have a real good reason to go out: essential needs as outlined by my state Washington.

    God help us. We need it

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  16. #91
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    I'm doing really well. My life is changing daily, but it's okay because I am flexible, just like our Zags. I'm also resilient and with your help I won't give up and I will never believe we can't win this battle. I am actually learning to enjoy my new life style. It's different, much more creative...I like that.

    thanks for posting everyone...this thread means a lot to me. It's ok to disagree. Remember that. We live in a free society. There is no boss here. Just a bunch of Zag fans trying to help each other. Thanks again for contributing

    God bless

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Just thought of something else. If the numbers do skyrocket and we get 100,000+ deaths... what impact will that have on the life insurance industry? As it is I suspect that they are bracing for a huge hit.
    Maybe they just don't pay out. I assume they give massive campaign contributions to the right people, who might be inclined to let them off the hook.

  18. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by 229SintoZag View Post
    I am curious about this. My reading indicates that COVID is more easily transmitted than the flu (ie one infected person will infect almost three others in average, versus 1.2 for the flu), requires more hospitalizations per 1000 people, and results in approximately ten times as many deaths per 1000 people as the flu.

    If this data is wrong F1d and Abe please share your information with me so I can understand how I'm missing the fact that we are shutting down our entire country for something that's no worse than a standard flu.

    Here's an article I read that had some of my information:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-and-different

    229

    Only responding because I’m being asked to directly. As I have stated, this is a complex issues with competing priorities. I’d hope you would agree.

    I’ll also state for the third time. Listen to public health officials. Follow their recommendations. That is what I am doing.

    I also know that you’re exceedingly bright and I’m sure you understand that there “might” have been a different approach to this issue that may have kept death rates down by perhaps taking measures for the at risk population. What if’s aren’t productive though and we’re already on the path we’re on and no one is stopping this train.

    The data you are citing is no doubt sound. BUT, it is by definition incomplete, agreed?

    We are, in the US, in the midst of or just shy of peak outbreak. None of the numbers are broken down demographically. The data doesn’t tell us a helluva lot yet.

    Edited to add this article, which is the basis for my thoughts on the data being incomplete:

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

    (essentially the positives results are extremely skewed due to the scarcity of tests worldwide and the result that only those with severe symptoms or those at high risk are or have been tested. Not a reliable dataset)

    We’ll only know if we reacted correctly 6 months or more from now.

    Zagfan24 - Perhaps you have a point about it not being useful to compare Covid 19 to the common flu. There have been serious novel coronavirus outbreaks within the last 2 decades. Is Covid 19 the worst of these? If not, how did we react to/handle the others?
    Last edited by former1dog; 03-25-2020 at 02:28 PM.

  19. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    For me I can use common sense. If I have a medical problem I go to the doctor, not a mechanic. If I have a car problem, I go to a mechanic, not a doctor. If I'm trying to learn about an unknown virus I go to learn from a scientist who studies these things, I don't go to a teacher. Listen. I have to admit to myself and to you that I am not a scientist or doctor. I do not really know very much about this virus at all. For me to assume that I do and share my OPINIONS I only hurt you and my society. MDAbe said early on that he trusts Dr Fauci...So do I. And I trust Dr Deborah Birx. Why would THEY want to harm us. I believe we are at war with this virus, and it is far more serious than some think. I understand that millions do not believe these two specialist, and imo they are harming us as a Nation. I pray that we as Americans can put our egos aside, and listen to Fauci and Birx as if they are OUR coach Few. AS for me I'm practicing "social distancing" six feet, washing hands ect...and staying in unless I have a real good reason to go out: essential needs as outlined by my state Washington.

    God help us. We need it

    Go Zags!!!
    No doubt, follow the doctor's advice for a medical problem.

    But, consider this. This problem is not limited to a medical issue. It's also a logistics and supply line issue. Fauci and Birx have zero expertise in that area.

  20. #95
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    you are right....i guess the solution is to create a balance if that is possible.
    What do you think about that?

    Is the president right to want us to go back to work around Easter?
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    No doubt, follow the doctor's advice for a medical problem.

    But, consider this. This problem is not limited to a medical issue. It's also a logistics and supply line issue. Fauci and Birx have zero expertise in that area.
    Birx does. She spent 29 years as an Army Doc, she had to get trained on medical logistics and distribution.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    you are right....i guess the solution is to create a balance if that is possible.
    What do you think about that?

    Is the president right to want us to go back to work around Easter?
    I honestly don't know. I am of the belief if commerce is suspended much longer we are in grave danger of an economic disaster larger than what we are already facing. And that brings it's own danger to the people of this country's wellbeing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    Birx does. She spent 29 years as an Army Doc, she had to get trained on medical logistics and distribution.
    And since 2014 she is the Director of the US Global coordinator on HIV. A colonel and immunologist. She’s got the goods. I know of no studies comparing Corona to typical Flu in terms of infection it’s or ease of passing either disease to another human.

    With such a low rate of mortality, and with the huge majority of deaths occurring in the debilitated older set, I can see why some may not think this is as dangerous to the 60 and under group. And in the US this is the data. IMHO the media jumped the gun on this. It provided an opportunity to criticize but the words are falling empty.

    And m not willing to give up rights based on the data. Not because the media freaks out. We Re not China and not Italy. We are America and we manage problems expeditiously. If I have to guess, this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    And since 2014 she is the Director of the US Global coordinator on HIV. A colonel and immunologist. She’s got the goods. I know of no studies comparing Corona to typical Flu in terms of infection it’s or ease of passing either disease to another human.

    With such a low rate of mortality, and with the huge majority of deaths occurring in the debilitated older set, I can see why some may not think this is as dangerous to the 60 and under group. And in the US this is the data. IMHO the media jumped the gun on this. It provided an opportunity to criticize but the words are falling empty.

    And m not willing to give up rights based on the data. Not because the media freaks out. We Re not China and not Italy. We are America and we manage problems expeditiously. If I have to guess, this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks.
    I really hope you're right, Dr. If that will be the case I am hearing they may have a shortened tennis season (probably all spring sports). My grand daughter is a very good tennis player and could win state this year. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    Former1dog: “ we are, in the US, in the midst or just shy of peak outbreak”

    MDABE80: “ if I have to guess, [you did not] this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks”

    If on April 15 it’s clear that you both were hugely mistaken, should we expect to see either of you publicly acknowledge it and change some of your fundamental priors that have been foundational of your thinking and predictions thus far?

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