View Poll Results: Will a '20-'21 season occur as described?

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  • 80-100% sure

    36 41.38%
  • 60-80% sure

    14 16.09%
  • 40-60% sure

    20 22.99%
  • 20-40% sure

    9 10.34%
  • 10-20% sure

    8 9.20%
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Thread: How sure are you we'll have a 2020-2021 season ? (and COVID-19 Topics)

  1. #51
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    We’re America. I heard that by thee d of the week there will be an Additional 70000 ventilators being distributed with more being built. I’ve managed ICUs in several hospitals. Believe me that’s a lot of ventilators!
    Also masks and full face masks are both being sent. 100 k of both ready to go if needed. More coming. We won’t fail. I do see that 81% of deaths are the 80 yr olds and up. Generally most have comorbidities. Ie copd ,diabetes etc

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Morning's mortality (Dead/Confirmed cases) = 4.3%

    USA = 1.8

    Stats: https://ncov2019.live/




    What does "highest patient flow" mean? What is measured by the term? I spent a few minutes online looking and couldn't find this value measured or defined numerically. Is it most individual patients per day relative to the number of MDs? Beds? Nurses?
    Number of patients admitted and treated. Pretty much it’s in the title.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    As an aside, it’s important to know that Spokane has 2 major medical centers and with 1.6 million people within a 60 miles radius of city center, we have the highest patient flow in the 13 western states.
    Is the "we" in reference to spokane's hospitals?

    Which are "the 13 western states"?

    Logic would imply:

    Hawaii, Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, Utah, Ariz, New Mex

    So what are you claiming regarding Spokane's 2 hospitals in comparison to other hospitals in the western USA? I'm genuinely curious and trying to understate what statement you are making.

    Are you saying that the ratio of patients (or potential patients, due to geography) / # of hospitals (2) is atypically high? If that's your claim, wouldn't the size of the hospital be relevant, since "hospital" isn't a quantiified unit anything?

  4. #54
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    We’re America... yes. But that doesn’t preclude us from not being prepared for things like this. These ventilators could have been ready had we prepared. The PPEs could have been ready had we been prepared. We could have been prepared if people didn’t dismiss it as nothing more than the flu. We could have gathered our resources 2 months ago. Lord I hope you are right... but docs in NY have been reusing PPEs for 48 hours when they’re meant for far less than that. I do have faith in our country... but we didn’t tap our resources in time.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    We’re America... yes. But that doesn’t preclude us from not being prepared for things like this. These ventilators could have been ready had we prepared. The PPEs could have been ready had we been prepared. We could have been prepared if people didn’t dismiss it as nothing more than the flu. We could have gathered our resources 2 months ago. Lord I hope you are right... but docs in NY have been reusing PPEs for 48 hours when they’re meant for far less than that. I do have faith in our country... but we didn’t tap our resources in time.
    Disagree totally. There is no country that can be totally prepared beforehand for one in a hundred year scenarios. No government could have ramped up any quicker than we did. No government reacted as quickly as we did. Flights from China were stopped earlier than any other western country and because of it the administration was called racist. Flights from Europe were halted and the media bashed the government for doing it. We will not be Italy. They kept their borders open. They stopped flights from China but kept their european borders open for fear of being called racist.

    Here's an example of being prepared from NBC...".There is a federal stockpile of ventilators — part of the $8 billion Strategic National Stockpile of medical supplies housed in secret warehouse locations around the country. The number of ventilators in that stockpile is classified, but Vice President Mike Pence said Wednesday it is over 10,000."

    Here's another. Notice the date.

    Secretary Alex Azar

    @SecAzar
    ·
    Sep 19, 2019


    Today,
    @POTUS
    is affirming his commitment both to America’s national security and to America’s health by signing an executive order to modernize influenza vaccine manufacturing. https://hhs.gov/about/news/2019/09/1...er.html… Secretary Alex Azar

    @SecAzar
    "Faster methods of producing influenza vaccines will help keep Americans safer both from seasonal influenza, which kills tens of thousands of Americans each year, and from the potential of pandemic influenza, which is the single greatest biodefense threat our country faces."

    The finger pointing is non productive.

    Keep in mind, the government is rarely the answer. The private market will be the ones that conquer any shortages.

    Once again, the mortality numbers don't square with the absolute panic the media and politicians are burying us with. We have struck a blow to the economy that will take years to recover from. We are about to spend trillions that could have been avoided if we had focused on the high risk population instead of shutting everything down.

    We are now a couple of steps away from martial law because of the economic shock that state and federal governments have foisted upon us.


    There seems to be no governor on the panic. I would never minimize even one death, but consider this. This season's flu dwarfs the virus that is scaring us so much. From U.S. News and World Report...

    "THE GLOBAL FUROR OVER the emerging coronavirus pandemic has masked one of the worst influenza seasons on record, government data show, particularly among children and young adults.
    With flu season still winding down, at least 144 children younger than 18 have died, a toll topped only by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic since health authorities began tracking flu data in 2004.
    So far this season, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded 36 million flu cases in the U.S., with 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths.
    Despite the record numbers, influenza has all but been ignored, says Dr. Roger Klein, a molecular pathologist at Yale University. “There’s been very little mention of it.”
    … Dr. William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine … says, the flu is being overshadowed by coronavirus. “Our flu cases are persisting. We have not seen a downward inflection yet.”

    Right now we are at 416 deaths. Tragic? Yes, extremely. Have we over reacted and unleashed avoidable destruction? Yes.

    I pray every day that everyone stays healthy. We need to pull together and get back on our feet as soon as possible. If we allow this to freeze us with fear we are in danger of losing everything.

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    We’re America. I heard that by thee d of the week there will be an Additional 70000 ventilators being distributed with more being built. I’ve managed ICUs in several hospitals. Believe me that’s a lot of ventilators!
    Also masks and full face masks are both being sent. 100 k of both ready to go if needed. More coming. We won’t fail. I do see that 81% of deaths are the 80 yr olds and up. Generally most have comorbidities. Ie copd ,diabetes etc
    This is great news, do you have support for any of these claims? (70,000 ventilators being distributed by Saturday, 100,000 face masks and 100,000 (N95?) masks "ready to go"?

    Also - can you cite evidence for the "81% of deaths are the 80yr olds and up"?

    I see a CDC report from Wednesday March 16th which directly contradicts your claim. Of the first 44 domestic deaths (note, we are now more than 10x that), the people 65 and up have accounted for 80%. I haven't seen anything on domestic or global deaths that says what you claim. But you're the doctor, so Im curious if your claims are based in medical evidence the general public doesn't access.

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    This is great news, do you have support for any of these claims? (70,000 ventilators being distributed by Saturday, 100,000 face masks and 100,000 (N95?) masks "ready to go"?

    Also - can you cite evidence for the "81% of deaths are the 80yr olds and up"?

    I see a CDC report from Wednesday March 16th which directly contradicts your claim. Of the first 44 domestic deaths (note, we are now more than 10x that), the people 65 and up have accounted for 80%. I haven't seen anything on domestic or global deaths that says what you claim. But you're the doctor, so Im curious if your claims are based in medical evidence the general public doesn't access.
    I agree... lets present real stats... not tweets. But I will come back to that shortly.

    First off... comparing an entire flu season which is months long to exactly 3 weeks of this virus tells you EVERYTHING you need to know. Note, again look at the charts of infections for Italy by day compared to ours... they are nearly identical. We are about 1-2 weeks behind them. Lets see where the numbers go in the next week when NYC is completely overwhelmed and running out of doctors, nurses, and medical technicians (please let me know how being America is going to solve that in a week) not to mention actual equipment. For the record these things are already happening and we are still going up on cases. Also, per the CDC the lagtime between infection and death is about 13 days. We aren't there yet for many infections.

    But lets look CDC stats instead of tweets. Taken from here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm





    Deaths are spread out quite a bit more than the 81% quoted by Abe. I'd love to see where he got that number.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  8. #58
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    More distressing is this:

    https://news.yahoo.com/fauci-u-looki...161900234.html

    Fauci was responding to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which, after studying more than 4,000 cases in the U.S., showed that about 40 percent of those who were hospitalized for the virus as of March 16 were ages 20 to 54. Among the most critical cases, 12 percent of intensive care admissions were among those ages 20 to 44, while 36 percent were for those 45 to 64.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  9. #59
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    Data from Johns Hopkins and NBC at 9am:
    Worldwide: 340784 known cases with 14748 dead.

    US data: 39995 known cases with 455 dead.

    I like Hopkins more than Yahoo. More this afternoon. None of the data are accurate because all we know is what we know. We do not know everyone who’s been infected. Just those tested.

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Data from Johns Hopkins and NBC at 9am:
    Worldwide: 340784 known cases with 14748 dead.

    US data: 39995 known cases with 455 dead.

    I like Hopkins more than Yahoo. More this afternoon. None of the data are accurate because all we know is what we know. We do not know everyone who’s been infected. Just those tested.
    Here's a realtime tracker started by someone from Mercer Island: Covid-19 live stats. Over 16,000 global dead and over 500 USA dead as of 11am pacific 3/23.

    Where did you get your 81% of deaths are over 80yrs old from, Abe?

    Also, what does this mean? I'm curious why you state it is "important to know" it. Certainly you can't be claiming that the patient flow through Spokane is higher than Seattle, or SF, or LA, or Phoenix, Denver, SLC, etc etc (or as the great George Will likes to say, your important to know fact is missing the 4 most important words in English: "As Compared To What?")

    As an aside, it’s important to know that Spokane has 2 major medical centers and with 1.6 million people within a 60 miles radius of city center, we have the highest patient flow in the 13 western states.
    Last edited by LTownZag; 03-23-2020 at 10:43 AM.

  11. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Data from Johns Hopkins and NBC at 9am:
    Worldwide: 340784 known cases with 14748 dead.

    US data: 39995 known cases with 455 dead.

    I like Hopkins more than Yahoo. More this afternoon. None of the data are accurate because all we know is what we know. We do not know everyone who’s been infected. Just those tested.
    Abe... you get that there is a link in the Yahoo article to the CDC for the data, right?

    You are right... we could likely have far more cases out there. Nobody is disputing that. But lets say for every confirmed case, there is another 10 undetected. We know statistically that 15-20% of those confirmed cases require hospitalization... at least in NY that has been the average. So 15-20% of those untested cases are going to end up in the hospitalized. It is a serious numbers game and the odds are ugly for us, not the virus.\

    Don't want to believe me because I lean left... how about this quote today:

    “I want America to understand this week, it's going to get bad,” - Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  12. #62
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    Yes I know LIZ . CDC is as good as anybody. I saw the updated number from earlier today and posted them. No worries. Leaning left has nothing to do with the data. I do think that the more we test, the more things will change AND the more positive diagnoses we'll get. In some ways this harkens back to an article in the New England in 1979. Me and a guy named George Diamond went to work on testing. Given if u know a prevalence of a disease you can pinpoint the likelihood of clinical occurrence . As far as projections go , that’s a superior article . Just an FYI for those interested in the math and science of a given disease. Esoteric!
    Last edited by MDABE80; 03-23-2020 at 02:42 PM.

  13. #63
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    Serious question: is there any push to account for deaths not caused by Covid-19, but definitely related? I ask because a local (non-GEG) radio guy today said his uncle died last week from non-covid pneumonia. Uncle had gone to the hospital but no beds available due to covid cases so went home and ended up dying. Do medical stats take this kind of death into account?

  14. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pallet View Post
    Serious question: is there any push to account for deaths not caused by Covid-19, but definitely related? I ask because a local (non-GEG) radio guy today said his uncle died last week from non-covid pneumonia. Uncle had gone to the hospital but no beds available due to covid cases so went home and ended up dying. Do medical stats take this kind of death into account?
    Highly doubt that'd be rolled in.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Pallet, the man died from his disease NOT corona. That's how it'll be counted ....at least by the epidemiologists. One thing is clear though, the more we test, the more cases we find. The test just sanctifies the number. We cannot test 300 million people so likely we'll never know the number of people who test positive.

  16. #66
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    400 ventilators???

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/corona...lators-to-nyc/

    So much for getting the equipment where it is needed. NYC needs THOUSANDS not hundreds.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    400 ventilators???

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/corona...lators-to-nyc/

    So much for getting the equipment where it is needed. NYC needs THOUSANDS not hundreds.
    Quit panicking. These are from the government. The private sector will come through.

    And New York isn't more of a priority than San Francisco or Biloxi. Cuomo wants to hoard them like people are hoarding toilet paper.

    I realize everyone is concerned. But, we'll get through this. I honestly don't understand people focusing on the worst possible outcomes and believing that's the only possibility.

  18. #68
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    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21B1PD

    Ford, GM, 3M all on board with manufacturing respirators.

  19. #69
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    The post I wrote from a few days ago defined a 70000 across the nation. My source was NIH. As far as I know, that’s still the number. I do see the mortality in the US has ticked down to 1.1% but still 4% across nations. I do know that the more we test, the number infected should increase . But the mortality should be stable or drop. I’ve seen no data on vent dependent pneumonia. Anyway. It’s what i know...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Quit panicking. These are from the government. The private sector will come through.

    And New York isn't more of a priority than San Francisco or Biloxi. Cuomo wants to hoard them like people are hoarding toilet paper.

    I realize everyone is concerned. But, we'll get through this. I honestly don't understand people focusing on the worst possible outcomes and believing that's the only possibility.
    That isn't panic... it is anger.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21B1PD

    Ford, GM, 3M all on board with manufacturing respirators.
    Those are likely weeks away. I honestly think some people don't think any of this is a big deal and that it is overblown.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  22. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Those are likely weeks away. I honestly think some people don't think any of this is a big deal and that it is overblown.
    There are two extremes. It is overblown. And there are some not taking things at all seriously. And there are those that are afraid of their own shadow.

    There is a rational middle ground and that's where we should be. This is dangerous, but it can be handled.

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    The post I wrote from a few days ago defined a 70000 across the nation. My source was NIH. As far as I know, that’s still the number. I do see the mortality in the US has ticked down to 1.1% but still 4% across nations. I do know that the more we test, the number infected should increase . But the mortality should be stable or drop. I’ve seen no data on vent dependent pneumonia. Anyway. It’s what i know...
    10 or 12 days ago you "knew":

    Mortality has been about what you might expect of a flu or flu variants.
    At that time there was no evidence at all to suggest that the mortality was "about what you might expect from a flu or flu variant". Data from many nations had low-end mortality rates at 10x that of the flu. In fact, I'd bet you $50 (to charity) that you can't find a single medical source dated any time from February or March15 which gives a COVID-19 mortality rate within 500% of the flu's baseline .1%. If you can find such a source, I'll donate $50 today to the charity of your choice and post a screenshot as proof.

    When did you change your mind, and what changed it?


    And Mark Burn - it's a form of unproductive strawmannirg to collapse the entire category of "has more concern than I do" into something dismissed simply as "panic". It allows you to not actually consider viewpoints other than yours. There are infinite degrees of concern, action, prioritization, and willingness for tradeoffs that are apparently beyond those you are in favor of, but are certainly far short of what is fairly described as "panic. As far as prioritizing NYC vs Biloxi, NYC should absolutely be prioritized.

    NYC has a population density 26x that of Biloxi (26,000 per sq mile, to 1000) which helps contribute to a much greater r0 for the disease in that area. An individual human life in NYC shouldn't be weighted more than an individual life (more accurately, life year) in Biloxi, but each infected human in NYC is a far greater public health risk than each individual infected human in Biloxi.

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    There are two extremes. It is overblown. And there are some not taking things at all seriously. And there are those that are afraid of their own shadow.

    There is a rational middle ground and that's where we should be. This is dangerous, but it can be handled.
    Can you give an example of a single current public policy in any USA city, state, or nationally that you feel is currently overly-restrictive or excessively concerned relative to the tradeoffs? A couple weeks ago forum members were claiming that cancelling SXSW festival in Austin was overly restrictive, which I disagreed with, but at least they gave an example. Later we had members suggesting cancelling NCAA tournament games was overly restrictive, or Inslee cancelling Puget Sound area events with over 250people was excessively restrictive. Again, at least specifics were given.

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    10 or 12 days ago you "knew":



    At that time there was no evidence at all to suggest that the mortality was "about what you might expect from a flu or flu variant". Data from many nations had low-end mortality rates at 10x that of the flu.

    When did you change your mind, and what changed it?


    And Mark Burn - it's a form of unproductive strawmannirg to collapse the entire category of "has more concern than I do" into something dismissed simply as "panic". It allows you to not actually consider viewpoints other than yours. There are infinite degrees of concern, action, prioritization, and willingness for tradeoffs that are apparently beyond those you are in favor of, but are certainly far short of what is fairly described as "panic. As far as prioritizing NYC vs Biloxi, NYC should absolutely be prioritized.

    NYC has a population density 26x that of Biloxi (26,000 per sq mile, to 1000) which helps contribute to a much greater r0 for the disease in that area. An individual human life in NYC shouldn't be weighted more than an individual life (more accurately, life year) in Biloxi, but each infected human in NYC is a far greater public health risk than each individual infected human in Biloxi.
    Sometimes you take an innocuous remark, i.e. Biloxi and analyze it way too much. The reference to Biloxi was there because Cuomo thinks his city and the people in it are more important than anyone else. I appreciate him advocating for his constituents but not at the expense of someone else, i.e. San Francisco.

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