View Poll Results: Will a '20-'21 season occur as described?

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  • 80-100% sure

    36 41.38%
  • 60-80% sure

    14 16.09%
  • 40-60% sure

    20 22.99%
  • 20-40% sure

    9 10.34%
  • 10-20% sure

    8 9.20%
  • More cowbell

    0 0%
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Thread: How sure are you we'll have a 2020-2021 season ? (and COVID-19 Topics)

  1. #26
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    I voted 80-100%. You know me. I'm pretty positive. I believe the saying, "This too shall pass." fits here. October or November is a L O N G ways away.

    Go Zags!!!

    ps looking forward to seeing the 20-21 team.
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  2. #27
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    It is frustrating for me to compare this to the influenza numbers because the quality of the numbers is so bad for the flu for anyone over 18. If nothing else comes of this, perhaps we can have better reporting of influenza deaths in this country. The CDC mentions that their numbers likely underestimate the actual number of influenza deaths because they are based not on reporting but on modeling. One resource from the CDC I looked at estimated 12000-61000 deaths. That's a huge range. Similarly, the same resource estimates 9.3-45 million cases per year. If you want to say that Covid-19 is X% more deadly than influenza, you can, but it doesn't mean as much as it could-- and I am being generous with that statement, in my opinion. [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html]

    In an article from 2018, the overall deaths from the flu during a given period, as reported on death certificates, was 15,000. A CDC model that incorporated deaths in persons with flu symptoms soared to 80,000 in that same period. In the same article, an expert is quoted as saying that the flu accounts for 5% of all winter deaths among older Americans (for comparison, the highest death rate in America from Covid19 is in Washington, and is 5.4%*(this includes all age groups)). [https://www.aarp.org/health/conditio...s-rising.html]
    *New York is at 0.7% (less than 1%, lest you think that is a typo)

    The CDC death rate for pneumonia and influenza (P&I) is 7.1% [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2]

    As stated above, it would really be nice to know the actual numbers when trying to decide if all of this angst we are all feeling (for various reasons) is worth it...

  3. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by zagamatic View Post
    Just some food for thought.....social distancing has proven over time to be effective at getting us back to healthy with or without vaccines. To my knowledge, vaccines have not been tested without including social distancing. Perhaps some of the physicians on this board could verify or disprove this (I'm not trying to start a panic after all). And I'm not trying to take an anti- vaccine stance, but I do believe that social distancing IS our best bet.
    In general, I guess that my point is that vaccines tend to get all the credit these days, whereas it seems as though social distancing is the safer way to go.
    This is a novel coronavirus because it mutated to cross over from. We could develop a vaccine and have it mutate next season. The conventional wisdom about persons' antibodies is that they persist for 6 months or so but that isn't necessarily so (see below). The reason everyone was so worried about Covid-19 is that our immune systems have zero experience fighting off this particular virus because it is unlike any other.

    Years back, H1N1 (swine flu) affected young people more than elderly people, which is different than this. The reason? Elderly people actually had some immunity from antibodies to previous infections. This is because H1N1, at that time, despite being a mutated virus of swine origin, was still similar to stuff we have been exposed to before (which cannot be said for this particular novel coronavirus, unfortunately). By the August after the outbreak, the pandemic was determined to be back into normal seasonal levels. Next year, in my opinion, won't be as bad as this year. with or without a vaccine, due to latent antibodies in those who are getting infected. Also, if this follows a similar pattern to H1N1, practices might be affected but I don't see the season being affected.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...59D5QF20091014
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influe...s_subtype_H1N1

  4. #29
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  5. #30
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    This is supposed to be comforting?
    Parlez-vous français?

  6. #31
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    Until there is a vaccine social distancing is going to be the solution.

    I expect a vaccine to be available to the public in eighteen months. I am not so sure NCAA athletes will be afforded the use of vaccines earlier than that time. Even if they are, I do not expect it to be soon enough for a 2020-2021 bball season, with or without fan attendance.
    .
    .
    .
    "thnk god for few" jazzdelmar(12/12/11 12:50pm)
    .
    "When most of us couldn't buy a basket. Where do we get off anyway?!" siliconzag (11/17/06 5:45:41 pm)
    .
    I am monitoring the price of a donut
    .

  7. #32
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    Yummy!

  8. #33
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    Dude... check your sources on this... Wow.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  9. #34
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    Based on what we know today, I voted with the 50-50 crowd in response to the OP.

    Best wishes to all GUB members and their loved ones.

  10. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Dude... check your sources on this... Wow.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nat...1-percent/amp/


    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/...ate-estimates/

    We are at about 1.2% in USA. 290 deaths in 24,000 cases. Italy is bad but its a older population and smokers which smoking is proven danger. Lets continue to lower this everywhere. (Liz im just posting stuff that i saw that might have some positive spin. I know some ppl wanna panic and be scared but i am trying to show some positives with this virus.)
    Love the zags for life

  11. #36
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    Usa will have 200,000 cases once enough testing.
    Love the zags for life

  12. #37
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    This is the lowest mortality for an epidemic I’ve e seen In 40 years. Think back to the prior ! 14% mortality for the last epidemic . This one is being driven by media and politics. Sail on Zags!! Somebody’s doing something right

  13. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    This is the lowest mortality for an epidemic I’ve e seen In 40 years. Think back to the prior ! 14% mortality for the last epidemic . This one is being driven by media and politics. Sail on Zags!! Somebody’s doing something right
    https://www.redstate.com/darth641/20...as-of-2359gmt/

    So far, the panic doesn't equal the reality. Let's hope it stays that way.

  14. #39
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    Great article Mark. Thanks for posting it! Lots in there!

  15. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheBeasta View Post
    It is frustrating for me to compare this to the influenza numbers because the quality of the numbers is so bad for the flu for anyone over 18. If nothing else comes of this, perhaps we can have better reporting of influenza deaths in this country. The CDC mentions that their numbers likely underestimate the actual number of influenza deaths because they are based not on reporting but on modeling. One resource from the CDC I looked at estimated 12000-61000 deaths. That's a huge range. Similarly, the same resource estimates 9.3-45 million cases per year. If you want to say that Covid-19 is X% more deadly than influenza, you can, but it doesn't mean as much as it could-- and I am being generous with that statement, in my opinion. [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html]

    In an article from 2018, the overall deaths from the flu during a given period, as reported on death certificates, was 15,000. A CDC model that incorporated deaths in persons with flu symptoms soared to 80,000 in that same period. In the same article, an expert is quoted as saying that the flu accounts for 5% of all winter deaths among older Americans (for comparison, the highest death rate in America from Covid19 is in Washington, and is 5.4%*(this includes all age groups)). [https://www.aarp.org/health/conditio...s-rising.html]
    *New York is at 0.7% (less than 1%, lest you think that is a typo)

    The CDC death rate for pneumonia and influenza (P&I) is 7.1% [https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2]

    As stated above, it would really be nice to know the actual numbers when trying to decide if all of this angst we are all feeling (for various reasons) is worth it...
    JP. This is a beautiful far reaching post. A very nice contribution.

  16. #41
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    I can tell you that the Department of Defense takes this deadly seriously. I work in the Pentagon on the Army Staff where my job is to track and manage the readiness of the Army. Dept of Defense sees this as a significant threat to both the National security and the Military’s force readiness.

    We are in essentially lockdown conditions now and planning actions to have have these conditions and more stringent for 90 days with plans for extending it.

    We are closely monitoring conditions in Italy because of the critical American military presence there. I have friends stationed there. It is frightening. The deaths are exponentially increasing. Remember, there is several day lag between infections and deaths. As infections exponentially increase there is a corresponding death increase following behind it.

    My office has tracked this trend across the globe since early January. It has not shown much sign of slowing and countries that deal with it stringently are faring the best. The US has already missed being in that group.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

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    Foo Time

  17. #42
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    Perhaps we should just not care and let it run it's course on its own. That seems to be the sentiment from some here.

    For the record... here is what the outbreak actually looks like... contrary to whatever you think you are seeing in isolated Spokane...

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...us-cases-mount

    NY is already approaching the point where they are stretched to their limits with semi-draconian measures... and we aren't anywhere near the peak. We are running out of beds and worse... running out of doctors and nurses. PPEs and ventilators... running out as well... and again... not anywhere near the peak of this thing. Mortality rate is GOING to go up due to these shortages. But yeah... lamest outbreak ever, right?
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  18. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    I can tell you that the Department of Defense takes this deadly seriously. I work in the Pentagon on the Army Staff where my job is to track and manage the readiness of the Army. Dept of Defense sees this as a significant threat to both the National security and the Military’s force readiness.

    We are in essentially lockdown conditions now and planning actions to have have these conditions and more stringent for 90 days with plans for extending it.

    We are closely monitoring conditions in Italy because of the critical American military presence there. I have friends stationed there. It is frightening. The deaths are exponentially increasing. Remember, there is several day lag between infections and deaths. As infections exponentially increase there is a corresponding death increase following behind it.

    My office has tracked this trend across the globe since early January. It has not shown much sign of slowing and countries that deal with it stringently are faring the best. The US has already missed being in that group.
    Amen... a great question to ask would be this... why, if this isn't so bad, are people in the government willing to do major damage to the economy to combat this thing? BOTH parties.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  19. #44
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    There’s a wide divergence between Mortality and morbidity. Usually they match and continue to rise. Thus far, across the world mortality doesn’t seem to be that bad compared to prior pandemics. Morbidity has yet to be determined.As an aside, if I was in the Pentagon, I’d be preparing for all options . Im sure it’s no small task. But that is separate and apart from the biology of the disease. Again. Well know more as the days go in.

    This morning mortality in the world is 3.9%. But only 1.2% in the US and the US. US is matching Spokane’s death count once again confirming Spokane’s marching right along with the country’s nUmbers. As an aside, it’s important to know that Spokane has 2 major medical centers and with 1.6 million people within a 60 miles radius of city center, we have the highest patient flow in the 13 western states.

  20. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    There’s a wide divergence between Mortality and morbidity. Usually they match and continue to rise. Thus far, across the world mortality doesn’t seem to be that bad compared to prior pandemics. Morbidity has yet to be determined.As an aside, if I was in the Pentagon, I’d be preparing for all options . Im sure it’s no small task. But that is separate and apart from the biology of the disease. Again. Well know more as the days go in.

    This morning mortality in the world is 3.9%. But only 1.2% in the US and the US. US is matching Spokane’s death count once again confirming Spokane’s marching right along with the country’s nUmbers. As an aside, it’s important to know that Spokane has 2 major medical centers and with 1.6 million people within a 60 miles radius of city center, we have the highest patient flow in the 13 western states.
    Doc, my approach is to hope that you are right but to plan and prepare assuming you are not. And I think that is a wise approach.


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    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

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  21. #46
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    Fine...but it's CNN data. They do the worse case in general.. So far, we're doing pretty well. What I don't know is how this China virus fits into our defenses. Im sure someone(s) are thinking the two fit together.......either now or in the future. I do know this: The USA must remain safe. I'm thinking the administration feels the same way.

  22. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Fine...but it's CNN data. They do the worse case in general.. So far, we're doing pretty well. What I don't know is how this China virus fits into our defenses. Im sure someone(s) are thinking the two fit together.......either now or in the future. I do know this: The USA must remain safe. I'm thinking the administration feels the same way.
    Let’s do what we can to make sure it isn’t as bad as the USA virus that wiped out a full couple percent of the world.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

    ________________________________



    Foo Time

  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post

    This morning mortality in the world is 3.9%. But only 1.2% in the US and the US. US is matching Spokane’s death count once again confirming Spokane’s marching right along with the country’s nUmbers.
    Morning's mortality (Dead/Confirmed cases) = 4.3%

    USA = 1.8

    Stats: https://ncov2019.live/


    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post

    As an aside, it’s important to know that Spokane has 2 major medical centers and with 1.6 million people within a 60 miles radius of city center, we have the highest patient flow in the 13 western states.
    What does "highest patient flow" mean? What is measured by the term? I spent a few minutes online looking and couldn't find this value measured or defined numerically. Is it most individual patients per day relative to the number of MDs? Beds? Nurses?

  24. #49
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    How many hospital beds does Spokane have?

    Also, let’s wait and see where mortality rate ends up. When places like Seattle and NY start running out of PPEs and ventilators, that will have a major impact on mortality rates as doctors are going to have to make hard decisions on who gets what care. I hope Doc is right.... but what I am hearing from friends who are docs and nurses on LI is that they are already running short on these things and the peak is likely weeks away
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  25. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    How many hospital beds does Spokane have?

    Also, let’s wait and see where mortality rate ends up. When places like Seattle and NY start running out of PPEs and ventilators, that will have a major impact on mortality rates as doctors are going to have to make hard decisions on who gets what care. I hope Doc is right.... but what I am hearing from friends who are docs and nurses on LI is that they are already running short on these things and the peak is likely weeks away
    Have faith in this country. The USA is uniquely able to ramp up production of nearly anything we need. I'm willing to bet that ventilators or anything else that's needed will be produced in record time and shortages will disappear due to the massive capabilities of this country to supply almost anything. GM is allowing Ventec to use their manufacturing capacity to build over a thousand ventilators a week. Other industries are sure to follow.

    This challenge is more a matter of keeping supply lines open and increasing them in critical areas than a medical crisis.

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