COVID-19 - Links, Discussion,

[RenoZag]

It’s hard for me not to imagine that somewhere down the road folks are going to have to prove their bona fides when it comes to COVID. If you’re a store owner, a concert venue operator, airline, etc., you will have to have some mechanism that lets you tell the public (with a straight face) that it is safe to visit / use the services.

In the wake of 9-11, the airlines (and the feds) had to demonstrate to the public that it was SAFE to fly.

In the wake of the Tylenol poisoning, consumer products companies developed tamper evident packaging that ensured products were SAFE to use.

Why would we treat the COVID-19 phenomenon any differently ? On my first airplane flight post-2020, I’m not willing to take my fellow passengers’ word that they are infection free. They should have to prove, via some universally accepted metric they are SAFE to travel with. As should I.

Enjoy your week. Looks like Mother Nature will favor my neck of the woods with some terrific Spring weather. I may have to take a spin just to get away from these four walls.

[sittingon50]

Might be a good time to commune with Lake Tahoe, Reno. Was up there for the 1st time in about 40 years last October & absolutely couldn't believe the traffic. Shouldn't be a problem now (though I guess I'm not up on possible travel restrictions).

[Zagceo]

UPS Fedex Amazon still have large facilities with thousands of workers coming and going everyday.

[Markburn1]

Hey Reno. Regarding your last two posts in this thread.

I get that people want to be safe. But, at what cost?

The idea of flattening the curve was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. That has proven to never be in danger. We have gone from an estimated two million deaths to a figure that looks to max out at 60k. If you look at CDC statistics, overall deaths in this country on a week to week basis are almost identical for the past five years. And yet, because of bad models, panicked media and politicians we have caused unbelievable damage to our economy. Worse than that, we have given up our freedom and essentially done nothing to make ourselves safer. The virus will still run it’s course regardless, shelter in place or not.

Eventually we will have to start living again. If we are fearful of enjoying our lives, then what’s the point? If we are going to track everybody and make them out to be outcasts we will have given up a large part of our humanity. There is real danger in having suspicions of everyone you come in contact with.

People with high risk should use common sense and avoid dangerous situations. I get that. Those are the people that should take extra precautions and they are the folks we should have focused on. The rest of us need to go about our daily lives. Are there outliers? Of course. Are there risks? Absolutely. Life is full of risks. But, if we live our lives in fear, what kind of life is that? There will be more viruses. Are we willing to allow the government to tell us what we can wear, where we can worship, who we should associate with, where we can eat, what places we can visit, how we are allowed to get from here to there,etc.?

The Google thing is a really bad idea.

I believe if we give up doing the things we like to do because of an over abundance of caution, life won’t be worth living anyway.

I know there are people that feel differently. This is just my opinion.

God Bless. Mark.

[willandi]

Hey Reno. Regarding your last two posts in this thread.

I get that people want to be safe. But, at what cost?

The idea of flattening the curve was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. That has proven to never be in danger. We have gone from an estimated two million deaths to a figure that looks to max out at 60k. If you look at CDC statistics, overall deaths in this country on a week to week basis are almost identical for the past five years. And yet, because of bad models, panicked media and politicians we have caused unbelievable damage to our economy. Worse than that, we have given up our freedom and essentially done nothing to make ourselves safer. The virus will still run it’s course regardless, shelter in place or not.

Eventually we will have to start living again. If we are fearful of enjoying our lives, then what’s the point? If we are going to track everybody and make them out to be outcasts we will have given up a large part of our humanity. There is real danger in having suspicions of everyone you come in contact with.

People with high risk should use common sense and avoid dangerous situations. I get that. Those are the people that should take extra precautions and they are the folks we should have focused on. The rest of us need to go about our daily lives. Are there outliers? Of course. Are there risks? Absolutely. Life is full of risks. But, if we live our lives in fear, what kind of life is that? There will be more viruses. Are we willing to allow the government to tell us what we can wear, where we can worship, who we should associate with, where we can eat, what places we can visit, how we are allowed to get from here to there,etc.?

The Google thing is a really bad idea.

I believe if we give up doing the things we like to do because of an over abundance of caution, life won’t be worth living anyway.

I know there are people that feel differently. This is just my opinion.

God Bless. Mark.

From another section in the MBB:

"For example, as of March 31, the Italian city of Nembro had 158 deaths in 2020 as opposed to 35 on average in the previous five years. But Nembro had only counted 31 confirmed deaths from COVID-19. So 31 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the town, but over 120 more deaths (4X confimred deaths) than the same timeframe in the previous five years with no other reasonable explanation for the discrepancy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ing-death-toll"

[sonuvazag]

Hey Reno. Regarding your last two posts in this thread.

I get that people want to be safe. But, at what cost?

The idea of flattening the curve was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. That has proven to never be in danger. We have gone from an estimated two million deaths to a figure that looks to max out at 60k. If you look at CDC statistics, overall deaths in this country on a week to week basis are almost identical for the past five years. And yet, because of bad models, panicked media and politicians we have caused unbelievable damage to our economy. Worse than that, we have given up our freedom and essentially done nothing to make ourselves safer. The virus will still run it’s course regardless, shelter in place or not.

Eventually we will have to start living again. If we are fearful of enjoying our lives, then what’s the point? If we are going to track everybody and make them out to be outcasts we will have given up a large part of our humanity. There is real danger in having suspicions of everyone you come in contact with.

People with high risk should use common sense and avoid dangerous situations. I get that. Those are the people that should take extra precautions and they are the folks we should have focused on. The rest of us need to go about our daily lives. Are there outliers? Of course. Are there risks? Absolutely. Life is full of risks. But, if we live our lives in fear, what kind of life is that? There will be more viruses. Are we willing to allow the government to tell us what we can wear, where we can worship, who we should associate with, where we can eat, what places we can visit, how we are allowed to get from here to there,etc.?

The Google thing is a really bad idea.

I believe if we give up doing the things we like to do because of an over abundance of caution, life won’t be worth living anyway.

I know there are people that feel differently. This is just my opinion.

God Bless. Mark.

Kind of weird to see this counterfactual that we proved we didn't need the interventions, something that could only be known had we not implemented them and had an acceptable outcome. Since we only have the reality where we did intervene, what we know for sure is that our interventions were either not needed or a successful deterrent from a rash of hellish outcomes that has happened in some regions around the world. (And I guess we just don't count New York).

I don't believe it's been conclusively proven either way and, without knowing the level of immunity we have collectively achieved, I'm not certain we are past the worst of it.

[willandi]

[sonuvazag]

If you look at CDC statistics, overall deaths in this country on a week to week basis are almost identical for the past five years.

There are so much data produced by the CDC, I would like to see your link for this claim if you can provide it. Regardless of its truth, it doesn't appear to be true for a region that is hit hard by COVID-19. Here is a chart of the mortality by month in New York City:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

They have never in the last 20 years had more deaths in a month, including 911. AND THEY HAVE BEEN SOCIAL DISTANCING FOR OVER A MONTH which means there is the very real potential this could have been even worse for them without interventions. We don't know.

What seems likely to me is that what has happened to New York was because its population density made the rate of reproduction so high, the virus got around before the city's interventions could prevent the chaos. But it seems like the same chaos can still potentially happen in other regions in the US on a different timeline.

[LongIslandZagFan]

Ironically, the likely reason the numbers may be "on par", which until I see the data I am not 100% buying, is because deaths from auto accidents, especially in urban areas, has been more than halved.

[Markburn1]

On the CDC’s Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance portal you can see the number of deaths each week, for the past six years, due to flu and pneumonia. One of their graphs shows the percent of all deaths caused by flu and pneumonia.

The other interesting feature is that you can download the number of deaths, from all causes, by week from the same time period. That feature makes for some interesting reading.

The above is from a friend of mine. Go to Fluview on CDC website.

The number of deaths are consistent week to week over a five year span.

But, if that is all you are focusing on from my previous post, you really missed the point.

I will not carry an identifier. I will not be tracked. I will live life to the fullest and manage my own risk. Just as others that are more at risk should manage theirs.

[sonuvazag]

On the CDC’s Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance portal you can see the number of deaths each week, for the past six years, due to flu and pneumonia. One of their graphs shows the percent of all deaths caused by flu and pneumonia.

The other interesting feature is that you can download the number of deaths, from all causes, by week from the same time period. That feature makes for some interesting reading.

The above is from a friend of mine. Go to Fluview on CDC website.

The number of deaths are consistent week to week over a five year span.

But, if that is all you are focusing on from my previous post, you really missed the point.

I will not carry an identifier. I will not be tracked. I will live life to the fullest and manage my own risk. Just as others that are more at risk should manage theirs.

I enjoy data, especially if it can potentially change my understanding of something so I appreciate you pointing me in the right direction.

As for your desire to live to the fullest and free of tracking, OK then.

For those who know this is your point of view, you'll be seen as someone who has a higher risk of being a disease vector. So your choice will have both upside and downside, which I already trust you understand. I don't know what else you really expect anyone to say.

[LongIslandZagFan]

On the CDC’s Pneumonia and Influenza Mortality Surveillance portal you can see the number of deaths each week, for the past six years, due to flu and pneumonia. One of their graphs shows the percent of all deaths caused by flu and pneumonia.

The other interesting feature is that you can download the number of deaths, from all causes, by week from the same time period. That feature makes for some interesting reading.

The above is from a friend of mine. Go to Fluview on CDC website.

The number of deaths are consistent week to week over a five year span.

But, if that is all you are focusing on from my previous post, you really missed the point.

I will not carry an identifier. I will not be tracked. I will live life to the fullest and manage my own risk. Just as others that are more at risk should manage theirs.

Appreciate your viewpoint... but assume you understand the threat you pose to others, which could be deadly to them, with your personal choices and also understand that by your actions it may put them at risk without their knowledge or consent, and act accordingly.

[Markburn1]

Let me address my risk to others.

What is the goal now? Let’s stipulate that lockdowns succeeded in flattening the curve. I have my doubts but let’s go with that. That process was never going to eliminate the virus and wasn’t intended to do so. Essentially we stretched out the progress of the virus. So now, everyone is a potential vector until we build herd immunity. If the goal is to eliminate the chance of being infected, how long will you be willing to shelter? The chances of an effective vaccine appearing are pretty slim. Epidemiologists have been working on these types of viruses for decades to find one. The flu still claims tens of thousands of lives in America every year with a vaccine.

Let’s say we both show up at the grocery store at the same time. You know me and avoid me. Which of the dozens of other people pose a risk? Are you going to check their government approved card? How long has it been since that person has been checked? Should everyone be forced to be checked every two weeks? What if they were exposed between checks? Point is, everyone is a potential vector.

I certainly won’t visit my mother in her assisted living home. Those people are at high risk. My elderly neighbors with underlying health issues stay at home and let my wife shop for them or let her wipe down the home deliveries before they take them inside. Those types of people are managing their risk differently than I and rightly so. Just as they should even with the flu.

When are we going to stop taking the “ experts” predictions at face value? The IHME report that caused the initial panic was off by orders of magnitude. It factored in shelter in place and predicted over 2.2 million deaths. Each time we get close to opening back up we are told the danger is still too great and we acquiesce for another two weeks. When will we be willing to live instead of being afraid to die?

I wish you all good health. I wish this type of disease didn’t happen. The reality is that it will always exist in one form or another. It has to be managed surgically instead of shutting down the whole society.

[former1dog]

Let me address my risk to others.

What is the goal now? Let’s stipulate that lockdowns succeeded in flattening the curve. I have my doubts but let’s go with that. That process was never going to eliminate the virus and wasn’t intended to do so. Essentially we stretched out the progress of the virus. So now, everyone is a potential vector until we build herd immunity. If the goal is to eliminate the chance of being infected, how long will you be willing to shelter? The chances of an effective vaccine appearing are pretty slim. Epidemiologists have been working on these types of viruses for decades to find one. The flu still claims tens of thousands of lives in America every year with a vaccine.

Let’s say we both show up at the grocery store at the same time. You know me and avoid me. Which of the dozens of other people pose a risk? Are you going to check their government approved card? How long has it been since that person has been checked? Should everyone be forced to be checked every two weeks? What if they were exposed between checks? Point is, everyone is a potential vector.

I certainly won’t visit my mother in her assisted living home. Those people are at high risk. My elderly neighbors with underlying health issues stay at home and let my wife shop for them or let her wipe down the home deliveries before they take them inside. Those types of people are managing their risk differently than I and rightly so. Just as they should even with the flu.

When are we going to stop taking the “ experts” predictions at face value? The IHME report that caused the initial panic was off by orders of magnitude. It factored in shelter in place and predicted over 2.2 million deaths. Each time we get close to opening back up we are told the danger is still too great and we acquiesce for another two weeks. When will we be willing to live instead of being afraid to die?

I wish you all good health. I wish this type of disease didn’t happen. The reality is that it will always exist in one form or another. It has to be managed surgically instead of shutting down the whole society.

Well stated. The social contract we all have lived under is rife with risk, but because there is a new virus, we forget that.

Studies in Santa Clara county, amongst a growing number of others, will I believe eventually show that this virus, with no vaccine, has a mortality rate similar to that of the flu, which does have a vaccine.

We have forever lived with the risk of communicable disease and a hundred other factors in our daily lives that can kill us.

Unfortunately for economy and the millions who will now deal with distress, depression, increased rates of suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence and all the other issue that will come as a result of the shutdown, I firmly believe that the cure is going to be much worse than the disease.

Let me admit, I don't know what the alternative would have been to flatten the curve, so to speak, but I do believe a more thoughtful, nuanced approach can be found for the next time the world is presented with a crisis like this.

[LongIslandZagFan]

Well stated. The social contract we all have lived under is rife with risk, but because there is a new virus, we forget that.

Studies in Santa Clara county, amongst a growing number of others, will I believe eventually show that this virus, with no vaccine, has a mortality rate similar to that of the flu, which does have a vaccine.

We have forever lived with the risk of communicable disease and a hundred other factors in our daily lives that can kill us.

Unfortunately for economy and the millions who will now deal with distress, depression, increased rates of suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, domestic violence and all the other issue that will come as a result of the shutdown, I firmly believe that the cure is going to be much worse than the disease.

Let me admit, I don't know what the alternative would have been to flatten the curve, so to speak, but I do believe a more thoughtful, nuanced approach can be found for the next time the world is presented with a crisis like this.

Estimates for the flu run about 1/10th of 1% of a mortality... unless a vast majority of people are 100% symptomless... I don't see the numbers ever getting that low, especially considering the case to mortality rate right now is hovering around 7%. That being said... on average about 500-600K people die from the flu yearly. This virus has killed almost 1/3 of that number... in 2.5 months.

For the record, Sweden is an example of "surgically shutting down" and their death rate from this is 10x higher than similar countries around them.

Speaking as someone with friends on the front lines, with a wife who has had 5-6 students with parents or grandparents dying from this just in the last 2-3 weeks.. NY/LI was an exact example of NOT flattening the curve fast enough. Systems got 100% overwhelmed. Sadly, the next experiment if going to be Georgia... expect deaths to skyrocket and their health system to be overwhelmed. The showed up to the party late and are leaving early and it is likely not going to end well for them. I don't know the calculus it took to decide to open everything up when you literally had the most people from your state die the same day. I really don't get it.

Better question would be this... Do you think it will help the economy when we end up right back where we are now in 3-6 months... likely at a much worse level? The 1918 flu is a primer on what not to do.... but history is repeating itself it seems.