COVID-19 - Links, Discussion,

[MDABE80]

Lets get the facts straight.
1. I know Fauci and never said he was my friend. Bright guy. Don't put words in my mouth.

2. In your first paragraph above and proximal to this post, boil it down to 1 question. That rambling mess above is unclear. What do your really want to know or are you just being petulant?

[Markburn1]

https://thehill.com/changing-america...-to-china-amid

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...ronavirus.html

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/az.../14/id/954149/

https://www.foxnews.com/health/us-he...virus-outbreak

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...e-wuhan-virus/

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/28/...r-coronavirus/

Literally hundreds of stories

[Markburn1]

I saw tonight on tv that if you inject sunlight and disinfectant into your body you can beat COVID19.

This was a BS Story. It's why nobody trusts the media.

Trump was responding to Bill Bryan who had just presented a couple different things that DHS might test.

"So, I’m going to ask Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing when we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that, so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful."

From the Daily Wire

A few moments later, ABC News reporter Jon Karl asked Bryan, “The president mentioned the idea of a cleaner, bleach and isopropyl alcohol emerging. There’s no scenario where that could be injected into a person, is there?”
“No, I’m here to talk about the finds that we had in the study,” Bryan responded. “We don’t do that within that lab at our labs.”
Trump then clarified his remarks: “It wouldn’t be through injections, you’re talking about almost a cleaning and sterilization of an area. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t work, but it certainly has a big affect if it’s on a stationary object.”

[LTownZag]

Lets get the facts straight.
1. I know Fauci and never said he was my friend. Bright guy. Don't put words in my mouth.

2. In your first paragraph above and proximal to this post, boil it down to 1 question. That rambling mess above is unclear. What do your really want to know or are you just being petulant?

1. Will you provide a single link to a media story or government report describing what you say happened “beyond dispute” - a story that USA based doctors or health officials were barred from entry and/or kicked out of Wuhan?

2. Will you support your assertion about very low deaths after a month from now with a public $100 bet (for charity) that domestic deaths will reflect what you predict (very low)? Let’s say under 30,000 in the next 10 months following 5/22/20?

MDABE80 latest prediction: “If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. ”

[LTownZag]

President Trump was asked on February 7 "Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?" He said "No."

Is there any incident or event in this entire sordid history that wasn't an example of the wise and savvy Trump acting in the optimum manner, but partially thwarted by a group of nefarious foreigners and domestic left-wingers and their media lapdogs who were simultaneously ignoring the threat out of love for China, and overhyping the threat out of hatred for Trump? (the above sounds like absurd summary, but it's my attempt to faithfully capture what seems to be MDABE80's view of the events of the past 90 days).

Can you name a single error os misstep on the part of this administration? Would firing Fauci (your friend with whom you speak) constitute such a misstep?

This was a BS Story. It's why nobody trusts the media.

Trump was responding to Bill Bryan who had just presented a couple different things that DHS might test.

"So, I’m going to ask Bill a question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing when we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting. And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that, so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful."

From the Daily Wire

A few moments later, ABC News reporter Jon Karl asked Bryan, “The president mentioned the idea of a cleaner, bleach and isopropyl alcohol emerging. There’s no scenario where that could be injected into a person, is there?”
“No, I’m here to talk about the finds that we had in the study,” Bryan responded. “We don’t do that within that lab at our labs.”
Trump then clarified his remarks: “It wouldn’t be through injections, you’re talking about almost a cleaning and sterilization of an area. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t work, but it certainly has a big affect if it’s on a stationary object.”

Mark, I agree with you that much of the prominent media spins things against Trump and that Trump was not actually suggesting humans inject themselves or each other with bleach, etc.

But the fact that even reasonable people in the white house acknowledge a need to clarify that the president of the united states was not, in fact, suggesting drinking or injecting bleach or other chemical disinfectants, is evidence of a kind of sloppy and unhinged cognition and speech pattern. AKA the most Trump-charitable interpretation of the event is that the president was needlessly unclear, conjecturing, distracting, and unscientific in his remarks.

[Markburn1]

1. Will you provide a single link to a media story or government report describing what you say happened “beyond dispute” - a story that USA based doctors or health officials were barred from entry and/or kicked out of Wuhan?

2. Will you support your assertion about very low deaths after a month from now with a public $100 bet (for charity) that domestic deaths will reflect what you predict (very low)? Let’s say under 30,000 in the next 10 months following 5/22/20?


MDABE80 latest prediction: “If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. ”

Wagering on how many people are gonna die???

You might want to rethink that.

[LTownZag]

Lets get the facts straight.
1. I know Fauci and never said he was my friend. Bright guy. Don't put words in my mouth.

You actually said "good friend" (of the past 35 years) so he might be offended to learn now you claim that he was never your friend. (third post down). Should I expect any kind of apology for personally sarcastically insulting me after I quoted your own words (from 6 weeks ago!) to you?

It’s just a minor variation of the flu. Tony Fauci is running this program for Trump. Listen to what he says. Tony’s a good friend since 1985.

[LTownZag]

Wagering on how many people are gonna die???

You might want to rethink that.

If you have a suggestion for a better way to evaluate ABE's predictions about the deaths from COVID-19, I'm happy to try them and would prefer to use those as a basis for judging predictions. So far MDABE80 has made predictions (mostly very very very wrong always in the same direction) explicit in terms of deaths, so it seems like a relevant metric with which to evaluate those predictions and see how much he or others are willing to stand behind them. Also it would result in $100 going to a good cause either way, and devloping accurate in public predictions, especially those made by an MD in the area of an epidemic, seems like something people ought to support in the interest of saving lives. It separates out some randomly generated BS from a view genuinely held with confidence.

If looking to find offense in the situation, I'd start with a review of the consistent public predictions of this threat from MDABE80, Doctorzag, Former1dog, and NEC26 rather than the proposed measurement for evaluating the accuracy of current predictions.

[MDABE80]

35 years ago yes. Now? Not so much. So I'm correct on both counts. But your definition of "good" and mine are obviously different. I didn't say "CLOSE" which may have confused you. Good?, Close? There's a difference. But on a message board, what means something to someone may not mean the same thing to everyone. Care to refine your definition? You won't... because you don't know. And I properly characterized the relationship then and now. Both moved on to other careers. Don't talk to him much unless I need to. And THAT WAS your only question?? Gee that was easy. As I figured though, you're a just a petulant, insignificant type of little consequence. I thought it would be something important........ And FYI 50 K deaths.... Not at the 60 K yet ( Flu's biggest mortality in the past 20 years) . Several types of flu virus and at least 40 types of corona virus. In behavior, they are not that different.

Seems to me that you're a waste of time LTown. A lightweight....You received nothing out of this banter of yours.

[MDABE80]

If you have a suggestion for a better way to evaluate ABE's predictions about the deaths from COVID-19, I'm happy to try them and would prefer to use those as a basis for judging predictions. So far MDABE80 has made predictions (mostly very very very wrong always in the same direction) explicit in terms of deaths, so it seems like a relevant metric with which to evaluate those predictions and see how much he or others are willing to stand behind them. Also it would result in $100 going to a good cause either way, and devloping accurate in public predictions, especially those made by an MD in the area of an epidemic, seems like something people ought to support in the interest of saving lives. It separates out some randomly generated BS from a view genuinely held with confidence.

If looking to find offense in the situation, I'd start with a review of the consistent public predictions of this threat from MDABE80, Doctorzag, Former1dog, and NEC26 rather than the proposed measurement for evaluating the accuracy of current predictions.

Actually the predictions have been right on the money..and nothing you can say LTown ..... .in your little petulant, ankle biting demeanor will change that. And to what end you've attempted to generate obfuscation and uncertainty is unknown. Certainly has not been successful whatever you wanted. Pretty much a waste of time.

[MDABE80]

For those of you who have genuine interest, the no of patients infected is dropping, hospitalizations are dropping as are use of ventilators. NY is another story for unexpected reasons. In the huge number counted as infected, it's unknown how many had blood test to affirm the diagnosis. As it turns our we know that deaths were inappropriately attributed to corona. We also know that 70% of deaths were not only older than 70 yrs but 90% had other comorbid diseases. The nursing home set are in nursing homes generally because they are old and sick.

Now my old ( get to this LT!! lol) friend Tony Fauci sees the darker side of things but he sees ALL the data and must do harsh projection lest he be accused of giving a Rosy picture of a potentially lethal disease and remaining unprepared . Given the present trends though, if you disregard the (blame the government media) things are getting better. IN my view, the media generated a huge over reaction. Things are getting better in most .not all......spots. as this situation plays out, ask yourselves where you're getting your news . Usually media..and in most cases, the liberal media designed to scare you. It's mostly the unknown that generates fear.

The biology of a disease often looks horrible at the beginning.....and it moderates when more is known. 85 in LA today and pure Sun. Social distance more aptly put "Don't go around potentially sick people" and wear masks in crowds should help a lot. Common sense things. When Governor Cuomo demands the thousand bed Comfort ship to come to NY and only 71 beds are used or when he demands 40,000 ventilators when only 5000 are needed, it should underscore the hysteria we've seen. Things are getting better....sometimes slowly, sometimes quickly. No doubt though, things get better.

[LTownZag]

Actually the predictions have been right on the money..and nothing you can say LTown ..... .in your little petulant, ankle biting demeanor will change that. And to what end you've attempted to generate obfuscation and uncertainty is unknown. Certainly has not been successful whatever you wanted. Pretty much a waste of time.

Here are a few of your predictions from the last 8 weeks. (Out of curiosity, have I ever personally insulted you or attacked or even implied any insults on your character or intentions?)

-We are America and we manage problems expeditiously. If I have to guess, this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks. (written 1 month ago)

-Yes the flu does kill thousands in a month. It’s far more malignant [than] the corona.

-Mortality has been about what you might expect of a flu or flu variants. It's the media that is forcing the politicians to pay attention.

-I doubt any team or even this Inslee character will shy away from Spokane. This is not a huge deal anyway. (regarding potential tournament cancellation)


Question: how will Corona impact the NCAA tournament-- ABE's prediction: "Not unless the media scares the crap out of people. It’s just a minor variation of the flu. Tony Fauci is running this program for Trump. Listen to what he says. Tony’s a good friend since 1985."

-As it turns out, NCAA may have jumped the gun. 2200 total cases in the US and 49 deaths. When the covey closed the. O I g from China weeks ago that was a key move. Ow shutting off Europeans from coming in may be the clincher.

-Things may be turning....surely hope so. (written 1 month ago)

-Pretty much under control now except in a few pockets ie NY, NJ and Seattle area. (written april 2)


These last 3 aren't predictions, but are explicit disease-related medical claims that are not and never were near correct:

-I do see that 81% of deaths are the 80 yr olds and up.

-Im speaking to the low mortality rate across the couintry which hovers at 1.4-1.9% according Johns Hopkins (It's 5.7%, I don't believe it has even been as low as double the number Abe gives)

-If u had a disease that gave no or little symptoms 80% of the time. And you lived thru it 99% of the time, would you take it? And in America, this is what we’re seeing. The media has an event and the politicians must do what the media tells them or else. It’s the fear. It’s not the epidemic. China, Italy, etc have different genetics and they dont have the US health system. They don’t have our diets, clean air to breath and we don’t eat bats and dogs. There will be pockets of severity as there always is. In 40 plus years in medicine, I’ve never seen such a low mortality or morbidity.

Fact checking Abe has lead to me a lot of great articles and resources about this disease. I wouldn't bother correcting minor errors, and I wouldn't bother with major errors if they weren't presented from a source repeatedly given info to the public as coming from a self-described medical authority (final quote, for example). As a public service, here are a few resources that seem worthwhile for data. Please correct if anything I've written or implied is inaccurate:

-Live-update tracker

-John Hopkins Mortality by Nations

Marginal Revolution (w/Tyler Cowen)

- Our World in Data

-Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker

Scott Gottlieb

Balaji Srinivasan

Lyman Stone

Nicholas Christakis

Peter Attia

[MDABE80]

Here are a few of your predictions from the last 8 weeks. (Out of curiosity, have I ever personally insulted you or attacked or even implied any insults on your character or intentions?)< yes you have and without cause. <-- don't be silly, you've tried from the beginning. And to be clear, my expertise is anything BUT self proclaimed. You probably don't know enough but my work is acclaimed throughout the world,, Others say it not me. Ask GoZags.,...he might fill you in.

-We are America and we manage problems expeditiously. If I have to guess, this will mostly be over in 2-3 weeks. (written 1 month ago) AND I may have been off by 2-3 weeks, this is exactly what has happened. So your issue would be?

-Yes the flu does kill thousands in a month. It’s far more malignant [than] the corona. < and having reviewed the flu mortality for the past 200 years, the total deaths have ranged from 19,000 to 61,000. Tonight COVID 19 has claimed 54,000 lives ( if you can trust that figure which is uncertain) still under a bad flu year in mortality. SO your point is?

-Mortality has been about what you might expect of a flu or flu variants. It's the media that is forcing the politicians to pay attention.< ture enough in my opinion.

-I doubt any team or even this Inslee character will shy away from Spokane. This is not a huge deal anyway. (regarding potential tournament cancellation)< I think that if you put basketball tournaments being canceled and comparing that to diseases that kill and maim, most would agree with me. Basketball tournaments are small change be comparison.


Question: how will Corona impact the NCAA tournament-- ABE's prediction: "Not unless the media scares the crap out of people. It’s just a minor variation of the flu. Tony Fauci is running this program for Trump. Listen to what he says. Tony’s a good friend since 1985." We know more about the disease, Fauci said that in the very beginning. As you must define "good" friends vs a close friend vs a "friend" You haven't and yet your whine over my description. Define it ( you can't) and I'll be happy to revisit level of friendship. So what's the rub?

-As it turns out, NCAA may have jumped the gun. 2200 total cases in the US and 49 deaths. When the covey closed the. O I g from China weeks ago that was a key move. Ow shutting off Europeans from coming in may be the clincher.<--- I don't know anybody with a brain that would dispute closing the border to visiting Chinese and subsequently Euro visitors didn't make a huge difference I what likely would have been. It was the key move limiting the extent of disease. I don't know anybody who would seriously doubt this.

-Things may be turning....surely hope so. (written 1 month ago)< true and they continue to change as evidence by hospital admissions, ICU admits , ventilator usage, Prevalence of disease ( some argue this) and all important indicators of the disease lessening in importance.

-Pretty much under control now except in a few pockets ie NY, NJ and Seattle area. (written april 2) A<--- true as described unless you're living in a cave.


These last 3 aren't predictions, but are explicit disease-related medical claims that are not and never were near correct:

-I do see that 81% of deaths are the 80 yr olds and up. <--- was true in the early phase of the corona. Now it's changed to 70% od deaths occurring in the over 70 yrs of age set,...almost always with co morbid diseases underlying....so what's the rub?

-Im speaking to the low mortality rate across the couintry which hovers at 1.4-1.9% according Johns Hopkins (It's 5.7%, I don't believe it has even been as low as double the number Abe gives). <--- sorry it was that rate at the beginning. Now it's about 5% overall. As of tonight the death rate is downward..so?

-If u had a disease that gave no or little symptoms 80% of the time. And you lived thru it 99% of the time, would you take it? And in America, this is what we’re seeing. The media has an event and the politicians must do what the media tells them or else. It’s the fear. It’s not the epidemic. China, Italy, etc have different genetics and they dont have the US health system. They don’t have our diets, clean air to breath and we don’t eat bats and dogs. There will be pockets of severity as there always is. In 40 plus years in medicine, I’ve never seen such a low mortality or morbidity.< so? ALL of this is true and correct. Try harder to dispute what I wrote back then.

Fact checking Abe has lead to me a lot of great articles and resources about this disease. I wouldn't bother correcting minor errors, and I wouldn't bother with major errors if they weren't presented from a source repeatedly given info to the public as coming from a self-described medical authority (final quote, for example). As a public service, here are a few resources that seem worthwhile for data. Please correct if anything I've written or implied is inaccurate:< no you're not off the hook this easy. You have consistently tried to contest the facts I've written. For what I don't know, But since you've joined this board, you've been hostile. I believe it was Reno that sent you to the corner for a week or so for being abusive to others on the board and for contesting others' views. And for what? Because you have incessantly put up "facts' that were not and are not facts. LIZ had great joy despite not knowing the facts himself... and let your nonsense continue......just like now.

You're a lightweight who been hostile from your first day on this board. You've taken things out of context and called them true as written when they were simply not true without understanding from whence the statements came. Kinda like a big time waster. Good luck..I think you'll need luck if you are to flourish in life.


-Live-update tracker

-John Hopkins Mortality by Nations

Marginal Revolution (w/Tyler Cowen)

- Our World in Data

-Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker

Scott Gottlieb

Balaji Srinivasan

Lyman Stone

Nicholas Christakis

Peter Attia

//

[RenoZag]

Several seasons ago, we deleted the " Online Crosby Center" Forum from the GUB. The OCC, as it was known, was a catch-all discussion zone that included current events, religion, ethics, politics, a bit of history, books, and other stuff. . .

It was closed down because of threads like this one.