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Thread: COVID-19 - Links, Discussion,

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    That's good. Are you confident your testing is robust? If it's not, that's probably the biggest factor that would be holding your governor back.
    Utah has excellent health care providers and I have a lot of confidence in our system.

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    Have a blessed and wonderful evening my friends. I wish nothing but good health, prosperity and the love of family and friends to all of you.

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    You're understanding what I mean by the cure, correct? Entirely shutting down our economy, which is what we have effectively done?
    When LIZF said he was bothered by the argument that "we've gone too far", shutting down the economy is what I thought he meant. But I could be wrong.

    And my point that's it's demoralizing to hear that this effort may have been in vain, is because it's been a sacrifice to shut down the economy, and I certainly hope it has been worth it.

    I wasn't in any way thinking you don't appreciate doctors and nurses on the front line because I don't think their efforts have anything to do with us "going too far." In fact, I was trying to make the point that you sincerely care about the people affected by the economy shutting down in addition to the other considerations, and that's also admirable.

    ETA:
    I'm guessing LIZF brought up doctors and nurses in this context because our efforts to flatten the curve, if they're making a difference, also are helping to make their lives more tolerable, and that's another reason it would be worth the sacrifice.
    Agent provocateur

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by former1dog View Post
    Kitz, I havent read anything about Germany. Is there a primer you would recommend, providing an overview of their efforts?
    Mainly following the news; BBC, Reuters, Guardian. I track the Johns Hopkins site, CDC has lots of data. Plus I can track all kinds of news and sources as part of my job.


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  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by kitzbuel View Post
    Mainly following the news; BBC, Reuters, Guardian. I track the Johns Hopkins site, CDC has lots of data. Plus I can track all kinds of news and sources as part of my job.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I like Business Insider as well.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/why-...ate-2020-4?amp


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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  6. #106
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    Josh Marshall makes the same point I do about how the fatality numbers in NY make the Santa Clara and LA studies implausible.

    Much of the news coverage of the Stanford serology studies has focused on how many more infections they seem to show than the official lab confirmed numbers – ranging from 50 to 90 times the number in the LA County study. But these studies also speak directly to how lethal the disease is. They suggest that the actual death rate is just over .1%.

    The problem with this estimate is that, as I explained here, the actual mortality data out of New York City seems to make that estimate all but impossible. As of two days ago, the COVID19 mortality rate in New York City for the entire population was between .11% and .16%, depending on whether you count only lab confirmed COVID19 fatalities or those diagnosed on the basis of symptoms alone. To put that differently, for something in the range of Bhattacharya’s IFR to be accurate, literally the entire population of New York City would have to have been infected already.

    The numbers are straightforward: as of two days ago, there were 9,101 lab confirmed cases and 4,582 presumptive diagnosed cases for a total of 13,683 fatalities In New York City. The population of New York City is 8,398,748. That comes to either .11% or .16% depending on which death toll number is used.

    I do not think anyone thinks 100% exposure is at all possible. Even if we assume what I think most experts would consider the highly unlikely possibility that 50% of New Yorkers have been infected with COVID19 that would mean a .33% IFR. To be generous, let’s say a third of the population of New York City had already been infected with COVID19 – very high but not inconceivable. That would mean a IFR of .49%.

    Needless to say, I’m no epidemiologist and I’m no statistician. I can’t tell you what the actual infection fatality rate is. But the actual death toll from New York City appears to place a hard lower bound on the numbers that is significantly higher than what the Stanford group’s serology studies suggest.
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...serology-study
    Agent provocateur

  7. #107
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    I'm passing on some useful guidelines that should clear up any confusion and misconceptions about the coronavirus:
    -----------

    1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.

    2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one. Or maybe not, depending on where you live. It could save you, but it might not.

    3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.

    4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors: you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.

    5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that it will sometimes lead to a global catastrophe.

    6. Gloves won't help, but they can still help.

    7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it's important to GO OUT.

    8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes. Especially toilet paper, even though the virus is spread by aerosol, not arsehole.

    9. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.

    10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no-one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

    11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. (Oh, my!)

    12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise to stay healthy. But you mustn't exercise for too long, or more than once a day, because that would be unhealthy.

    13. On the other hand, you should eat whatever you have on hand, as it's better not to go out. (Except see above.)

    14. It's better to get some fresh air, even though you'll get looked at funny when you do. Most importantly, you can't go to a park, even though that's the best place to get some fresh air if you live in a town, because if they �������� open there would be too many people getting fresh air at the same time, meaning the air there would no longer be fresh and could contain the virus. Except that some parks are still open anyway. But if they ������ open, you mustn't sit down, except that you can do so if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant (but not too old).

    15. You can't go to retirement homes, but you need to take care of the elderly and bring them food and medication.

    16. If you are sick, you can't go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.

    17. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn't wear masks or gloves. But you have to let your groceries decontaminate outside for 3 hours. That includes pizza boxes.

    18. Almost every disturbing article or interview starts with "I don't want to trigger panic, but…"

    19. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but you can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.

    20. You can walk around with a friend, but not with your family if they don't live under the same roof.

    21. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.

    22. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours – no, four – no, six – no, I didn't mean hours, but maybe it's days, depending on what kind of surface it is? But it needs a damp environment to linger. Or not necessarily.

    23. The virus stays in the air - well, no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room. In one hour one sick person can infect ten others. So it is possible that all our children were already infected at their schools before they were closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, you should still be safe. However, in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, because studies show the virus can sometimes travel further, maybe.

    24. We count the number of deaths, but we don't know how many people are infected by the virus, as we have so far only tested those who were "almost dead", to find out if that's what they'll die of.

    25. The virus particularly stresses the lungs and heart. We have no treatment for this, except there is one drug that President Trump likes that might (or might not work), and is apparently not dangerous unless your heart is compromised by some sort of disease, because it causes irregular heartbeat and can trigger a heart attack. But it could still save you.

    26. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity so that when it circulates among us we won't be affected… but we have to no longer be locked up for that to become possible.

    27. The lockdowns will be eased or lifted when it is safe to do so. We'll know when that is because the rate of infection will be so low that the epidemic can't keep going. That's something we will find out from the testing for infections, using the test kits that we are desperately short of. In the meantime, until we get enough test kits, the politicians will make their best guess, depending on how soon they are standing for re-election and how badly the economy is doing because there aren't enough people working – though if a lockdown is lifted too early the epidemic will accelerate once more, and the economy will crash again anyway.

    There, I think that should clear everything up.

    You're welcome.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  8. #108
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    Did Trump tell Israel about the novel coronavirus in November? A news report in Israel says yes.

    https://politizoom.com/2020/04/17/is...CQkJUeVVvmrR1c

    Did the Medical Military branch of the Pentagon report unusual activity near Wuhan in early to mid November? This reporter says they did, and while it is also true that they now deny it, would a reporter make up such a specific story with no support? Would our current administration punish somebody for releasing such a report?

    https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https...8kXRghpxBzvWMg
    Last edited by willandi; 04-21-2020 at 10:00 PM.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  9. #109
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    "Knew" and "tell" have no special significance. The world knew something was going on in Wuhan. We even offered our own Drs and other investigators to go to Wuhan and investigate. Loose talk such as those two words likely were just that...…..loose "hey, have you heard anything about a virus breakout in China?" I go back to my own data from the same MIH guys who didn't know but asked a lot of questions. So they didn't KNOW but they couldn't TELL anything to anybody.
    If you recall, when Trump offered to send our research guys to take a look at their Institute of Virology, China refused. And then China blocked the data from getting out. This is beyond dispute.

    Those are the facts. Innuendo or accusations shaded mean nothing. Heading for a political slant too like the above, should be avoided. Period. Serves no purpose and is only gossip and intitiates drama. DO we need more drama and arguments over uncertain facts? I don't think so. If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. Each region is different.

    At this point, keeping the country closed in ALL areas is not worth it unless those people who enforce the low prevalence states/regions want the economy to weaken further for some bizarre reason. NPR has a "show" tonight about this outbreak. basically a worthless hour with few facts. Inslee at the bottom of it. Logic was along the lines of this..."President Reagan was shot and then he died"...…. all true but quite a bit of the fill in was just left out or the effect would be ruined.

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    "Knew" and "tell" have no special significance. The world knew something was going on in Wuhan. We even offered our own Drs and other investigators to go to Wuhan and investigate. Loose talk such as those two words likely were just that...…..loose "hey, have you heard anything about a virus breakout in China?" I go back to my own data from the same MIH guys who didn't know but asked a lot of questions. So they didn't KNOW but they couldn't TELL anything to anybody.
    If you recall, when Trump offered to send our research guys to take a look at their Institute of Virology, China refused. And then China blocked the data from getting out. This is beyond dispute.

    Those are the facts. Innuendo or accusations shaded mean nothing. Heading for a political slant too like the above, should be avoided. Period. Serves no purpose and is only gossip and intitiates drama. DO we need more drama and arguments over uncertain facts? I don't think so. If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. Each region is different.

    At this point, keeping the country closed in ALL areas is not worth it unless those people who enforce the low prevalence states/regions want the economy to weaken further for some bizarre reason. NPR has a "show" tonight about this outbreak. basically a worthless hour with few facts. Inslee at the bottom of it. Logic was along the lines of this..."President Reagan was shot and then he died"...…. all true but quite a bit of the fill in was just left out or the effect would be ruined.
    Not really trying to be political, but if this country knew in November and had started making preparations then, where would we be? Just speculating, true, because we will never know, but I feel that if it could be true, it needs to be known and considered.

    Just my opinion, of course.

  11. #111
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    Bring back the OCC

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Not really trying to be political, but if this country knew in November and had started making preparations then, where would we be? Just speculating, true, because we will never know, but I feel that if it could be true, it needs to be known and considered.

    Just my opinion, of course.
    Well maybe considered but there's only a thin basis for it. The problem always returns to China who deliberately hid the information. Even if a few people asked about it, China hid it. Standing back months later with the benefit of hind site and with more known, lots of things can be questioned but as of now, China simply hid it. they went to the extent of "disappearing" their own people who tried to let out some information. I don't see that any credence be given to "Trump knew it in November and did nothing" It's a little far fetched.
    Anymore though, all things are possible. 'I'm a little more concerned about people reopening the country.....I do hope they maintain the 6 ft rule, handwashing, etc.etc....

  13. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Well maybe considered but there's only a thin basis for it. The problem always returns to China who deliberately hid the information. Even if a few people asked about it, China hid it. Standing back months later with the benefit of hind site and with more known, lots of things can be questioned but as of now, China simply hid it. they went to the extent of "disappearing" their own people who tried to let out some information. I don't see that any credence be given to "Trump knew it in November and did nothing" It's a little far fetched.
    Anymore though, all things are possible. 'I'm a little more concerned about people reopening the country.....I do hope they maintain the 6 ft rule, handwashing, etc.etc....
    In general I tend to agree that looking back does nothing and I DO social distance, wash my hands and use alcohol wipes frequently, but we are now into week 7 of the 'official' recognition of this pandemic. Just imagine if instead we were in week 20 (starting with the last week in November). The additional 12+ weeks of preparation could have been huge, almost perfect weeks, the best weeks.

    One line of work that is being terribly hard hit ( or so I've heard) is prostitution. One small group is specializing. They only have sex with 6' Poles.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

  14. #114
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    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...-un-warns.html

    That would mean an additional 130 million people were "living on the edge of starvation," largely due to the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis,with wages, supply chains and humanitarian aid under pressure as a result of the outbreak.
    Not just a problem in third world countries. I sent this note a week ago to a friend who has the ear of my congressman, sorry I can’t find the original article.

    gI wanted to get a message to Representative ******** and I knew reaching out to you would be a quick way to do it. I read an article today detailing concern about the economic impact specifically due to the closing of meat packing plants and the farmers that supply them. I’m concerned that if that supply chain breaks down it could have more serious consequences for our communities generally. I was hoping to bring this to ******* attention so he could look into it and help avert any potential problems here in Utah. I should add the caveat that I’m unsure if the article I read was legitimate or not in terms of the true severity and implications, but logically it seems plausible and is worth some investigation. Thank you!

    The response I received:

    Hi Robert - Yes, I read that article too. Happy to chat about it. We had a roundtable today with the Ag Community this morning to try and learn more. Feel free to call me at ************. Thanks!

    Again, I’m of course concerned about the impact of the virus directly, but my increasing concern is of the impacts we have taken to combat it and the real significant health concerns related to combating it.

  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    "Knew" and "tell" have no special significance. The world knew something was going on in Wuhan. We even offered our own Drs and other investigators to go to Wuhan and investigate. Loose talk such as those two words likely were just that...…..loose "hey, have you heard anything about a virus breakout in China?" I go back to my own data from the same MIH guys who didn't know but asked a lot of questions. So they didn't KNOW but they couldn't TELL anything to anybody.
    If you recall, when Trump offered to send our research guys to take a look at their Institute of Virology, China refused. And then China blocked the data from getting out. This is beyond dispute.
    You’ve referenced a variant of this story multiple times.

    When did it happen? When did USA based doctors get refused entry or kicked out?
    When did Trump insist it even suggest (unsuccessfully) that USA based folks go to Wuhan?

    I’m not currently disputing your claim (you say it is “beyond dispute” but do you have any evidence of it really happening?

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    You’ve referenced a variant of this story multiple times.

    When did it happen? When did USA based doctors get refused entry or kicked out?
    When did Trump insist it even suggest (unsuccessfully) that USA based folks go to Wuhan?

    I’m not currently disputing your claim (you say it is “beyond dispute” but do you have any evidence of it really happening?
    LTown...Im not going to do work for you. Everything I wrote has been in the news for months. Im sure if you're genuinely interested, you can look those things up./ That's beyond dispute! lolol So go forth and be satisfied. Truth be known, I don’t have the time. Busy with pts. Sounded offensive. Sorry for that.
    Last edited by MDABE80; 04-23-2020 at 06:15 PM.

  17. #117
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    this may be the first time I post in the Foo, very interesting discussion

    found this artcile dated April 22 helpful re. masks

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...urself/610336/

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    Quote Originally Posted by bballbeachbum View Post
    this may be the first time I post in the Foo, very interesting discussion

    found this artcile dated April 22 helpful re. masks

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...urself/610336/
    Thanks for sharing.
    Agent provocateur

  19. #119
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    I saw tonight on tv that if you inject sunlight and disinfectant into your body you can beat COVID19.
    Bring back the OCC

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by gu03alum View Post
    I saw tonight on tv that if you inject sunlight and disinfectant into your body you can beat COVID19.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

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  21. #121
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    On non porous. Countertops true. But not in people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    LTown...Im not going to do work for you. Everything I wrote has been in the news for months. Im sure if you're genuinely interested, you can look those things up./ That's beyond dispute! lolol So go forth and be satisfied. Truth be known, I don’t have the time. Busy with pts. Sounded offensive. Sorry for that.
    MDABE80,

    I spent time a couple weeks ago looking into your claim that american doctors or medical experts had been expelled from China or were not permitted to visit China to investigate. No amount of google research revealed anything at all about that.


    Since your claim is "beyond dispute" could you provide a single example of a news story or government-issued press item about this event? (after finishing those patients)

  23. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Well maybe considered but there's only a thin basis for it. The problem always returns to China who deliberately hid the information. Even if a few people asked about it, China hid it. Standing back months later with the benefit of hind site and with more known, lots of things can be questioned but as of now, China simply hid it. they went to the extent of "disappearing" their own people who tried to let out some information. I don't see that any credence be given to "Trump knew it in November and did nothing" It's a little far fetched.
    Anymore though, all things are possible. 'I'm a little more concerned about people reopening the country.....I do hope they maintain the 6 ft rule, handwashing, etc.etc....
    I'm more willing than some of the others to agree that China has a lot to answer for. The problem for me is if China wasn't letting US doctors into Wuhan, why would Trump tweet on Jan. 24: “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!”

    At best, this makes Trump look naive.
    Agent provocateur

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    If the data continues as it is, the deaths will be very little in 1 month or so. Each region is different.
    Abe - What measures are you basing this projection on, and would you care to provide any of specificity about what you mean by "deaths will be very little"?

    The excellent Alex Tabarrok says "betting is a tax on Bull####" - would you be willing to publicly bet $100 (to a health charity of your choice) that deaths after 5/22/2020 and before 4/22/2021 in the USA from Covid-19 will be below 10 thousand? 20 thousand? 50 thousand? I'd take any of those bets, again donating the totals of all money to a health charity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    "Knew" and "tell" have no special significance. The world knew something was going on in Wuhan. We even offered our own Drs and other investigators to go to Wuhan and investigate. Loose talk such as those two words likely were just that...…..loose "hey, have you heard anything about a virus breakout in China?" I go back to my own data from the same MIH guys who didn't know but asked a lot of questions. So they didn't KNOW but they couldn't TELL anything to anybody.
    If you recall, when Trump offered to send our research guys to take a look at their Institute of Virology, China refused. And then China blocked the data from getting out. This is beyond dispute.

    President Trump was asked on February 7 "Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?" He said "No."


    Is there any incident or event in this entire sordid history that wasn't an example of the wise and savvy Trump acting in the optimum manner, but partially thwarted by a group of nefarious foreigners and domestic left-wingers and their media lapdogs who were simultaneously ignoring the threat out of love for China, and overhyping the threat out of hatred for Trump? (the above sounds like absurd summary, but it's my attempt to faithfully capture what seems to be MDABE80's view of the events of the past 90 days).

    Can you name a single error os misstep on the part of this administration? Would firing Fauci (your friend with whom you speak) constitute such a misstep?

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