COVID-19 - Links, Discussion,

[Zagceo]

Seattle resident has created this real time data base.

https://ncov2019.live/data

[Jazzgirl_127]

They're not even testing for it here, that's the scary part to me. It's not going to be a problem until it's a huge problem. I'm hoping our schools do the same as the surrounding states and cancel for the next two weeks so we can stay home.

[willandi]

They're not even testing for it here, that's the scary part to me. It's not going to be a problem until it's a huge problem. I'm hoping our schools do the same as the surrounding states and cancel for the next two weeks so we can stay home.

I was/am thinking of being by appt. only for 2 weeks, getting all my jobs caught up and completed...but unless they also waive utility bills for two weeks, it would be a rough go.

[Jazzgirl_127]

I was/am thinking of being by appt. only for 2 weeks, getting all my jobs caught up and completed...but unless they also waive utility bills for two weeks, it would be a rough go.

I completely understand, and think that's a good idea. I hope there is something they can do to ease the burden this is putting on small businesses. Some of our local shops are doing call ahead orders so that it cuts down on being face to face and also lets them know how much they need to have in stock so they don't over produce.

[RenoZag]

Useful info in that link. Thanks, Zagceo.

Not the kind of scoreboard we thought we would be watching in March 2020.

Stay safe.

[willandi]

I was/am thinking of being by appt. only for 2 weeks, getting all my jobs caught up and completed...but unless they also waive utility bills for two weeks, it would be a rough go.

[Zagceo]

From Dr Fauci reported in New England Journal of Medicine

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

[23dpg]

From Dr Fauci reported in New England Journal of Medicine



https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Cherry picking season. Here’s the entire paragraph.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

[LTownZag]

Seattle resident has created this real time data base.

https://ncov2019.live/data

That Seattle resident is a 17 year old computer prodigy from Mercer Island. Pretty amazing. He began his site in December.

[DZ]

That Seattle resident is a 17 year old computer prodigy from Mercer Island. Pretty amazing. He began his site in December.

There was another Mercer Island child computer prodigy who had some things to say on epidemics:

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=bill+gates+ted+talk+next+pandemic+

[kitzbuel]

Even with the increased availability of testing the US mortality rate is increasing. I use the Johns Hopkins site to track: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6.

The rate has steadily climbed from below 1% last week to above 2% this week.

[LongIslandZagFan]

Even with the increased availability of testing the US mortality rate is increasing. I use the Johns Hopkins site to track: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6.

The rate has steadily climbed from below 1% last week to above 2% this week.

Keep in mind the death rate is an echo of the new infections. In NY, the new infections from about 10 days ago were spiking... I think the increase in the death rate is likely a reflection of that spike. The rate of new infections is slowing some. Growth rates last week were ranging from 23-42% per day. Last three days has been at about 12-14%. Now, mind you, that is day to to growth of infections so it is a LARGE number. But it is slowing some.

The scary thing is that the "spike" last week was numbering in the 1-2K range.... and that one is taxing NY heavily now. The current growth is 7-8K per day in NY. In other words, NY is adding per day more than the total of that initial spike. The lack of equipment is going to cost a ton of lives. I have a friend that is a nurse on those front lines... she likely has it now. Nurses and docs are dropping like flies due to lack of PPE... I shudder to think what the next couple weeks are going to bring here... It will likely shock everyone to the core. Whatever you THINK it will be, it will likely pale in comparison to reality.

FYI... foo is the only place I am ever going to post until likely the summer... and even that is going to be rare.

[LTownZag]

Keep in mind the death rate is an echo of the new infections. In NY, the new infections from about 10 days ago were spiking... I think the increase in the death rate is likely a reflection of that spike. The rate of new infections is slowing some. Growth rates last week were ranging from 23-42% per day. Last three days has been at about 12-14%. Now, mind you, that is day to to growth of infections so it is a LARGE number. But it is slowing some.

Do you have a site that captures prior days' data?

I have been following closely on https://ncov2019.live/ and it seems like USA deaths and USA new confirmed infections (not actual infections) have been risen 18-24% per day for every day of the last 7 or 8. What days had as low as 12-14 or high as 42?

[LongIslandZagFan]

Do you have a site that captures prior days' data?

I have been following closely on https://ncov2019.live/ and it seems like USA deaths and USA new confirmed infections (not actual infections) have been risen 18-24% per day for every day of the last 7 or 8. What days had as low as 12-14 or high as 42?

Wikipedia actually has some good historical data for NY state.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)

I'd hot link to the chart but it won't let me.

For the record... I live in Suffolk county.

[kitzbuel]

Do you have a site that captures prior days' data?

I have been following closely on https://ncov2019.live/ and it seems like USA deaths and USA new confirmed infections (not actual infections) have been risen 18-24% per day for every day of the last 7 or 8. What days had as low as 12-14 or high as 42?

Johns Hopkins puts their data out on a github site: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19