View Poll Results: Will we have a 2020 tourney in the next 2 months?

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  • Yes

    35 29.66%
  • No

    83 70.34%
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Thread: Do you expect any form of NCAA tournament?

  1. #101
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    Kansas just canceled all athletic travel.

  2. #102
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    Bummer. I was kind of hoping Few would give Self a call after March madness was canceled. They would play a nationally televised game for a pseudo- championship, being the top 2 ranked teams, after all.

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    It's a bummer that mass hysteria is setting in and may end up canceling the tournament. I'm still optimistic that cooler heads will prevail once people have more information. I think once there are more stories of most early cases recovering over the next few days it will influence the NCAA.

    I was looking for analogue to compare COVID-19 to. Last year in the US there were around 37,000 deaths and about 4.4 million medical incidents requiring hospital stays from car accidents. You had about a 1% chance of dying in a car wreck in 2019 (1 in 103). This is lower than dying from an opioid overdose or suicide but higher than the risk of dying from falling down (1 in 114).

    I hope everyone remembers that there is risk in everything and we aren't here to be safe, we are here to live while trying to be safe.

    We're all on death row, it's just a matter of scheduling.
    How do you not understand that all of the statistics you just listed are irrelevant? It's about the cluster of the cases happening and a huge strain being put on the local medical care facilities that were not built to hold that many people that will all need ventilators due to the respiratory issues.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    It's a bummer that mass hysteria is setting in and may end up canceling the tournament. I'm still optimistic that cooler heads will prevail once people have more information. I think once there are more stories of most early cases recovering over the next few days it will influence the NCAA.

    I was looking for analogue to compare COVID-19 to. Last year in the US there were around 37,000 deaths and about 4.4 million medical incidents requiring hospital stays from car accidents. You had about a 1% chance of dying in a car wreck in 2019 (1 in 103). This is lower than dying from an opioid overdose or suicide but higher than the risk of dying from falling down (1 in 114).

    I hope everyone remembers that there is risk in everything and we aren't here to be safe, we are here to live while trying to be safe.

    We're all on death row, it's just a matter of scheduling.
    None of these are remotely analogous.

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    It's a bummer that mass hysteria is setting in and may end up canceling the tournament. I'm still optimistic that cooler heads will prevail once people have more information. I think once there are more stories of most early cases recovering over the next few days it will influence the NCAA.

    I was looking for analogue to compare COVID-19 to. Last year in the US there were around 37,000 deaths and about 4.4 million medical incidents requiring hospital stays from car accidents. You had about a 1% chance of dying in a car wreck in 2019 (1 in 103). This is lower than dying from an opioid overdose or suicide but higher than the risk of dying from falling down (1 in 114).

    I hope everyone remembers that there is risk in everything and we aren't here to be safe, we are here to live while trying to be safe.

    We're all on death row, it's just a matter of scheduling.
    Your numbers are way off. One percent is over 3 million deaths per year.

    If I had a 1% chance of dying in a car every year that I was in one regularly, I probably would get around by bike.
    Agent provocateur

  6. #106
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    And Mark Few is one win shy of 600 wins.

    So many story lines

  7. #107

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    Duke and Kansas just announced they will not be playing in the NCAA tournament or any athletic events. Season is over for sure.

  8. #108
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    I'm sure there is a tiebreaker scenario that will look at APR scores to determine a winner

  9. #109
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    They said May is a possibility but most likely cancelled.
    Love the zags for life

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bouldin4Prez View Post
    How do you not understand that all of the statistics you just listed are irrelevant? It's about the cluster of the cases happening and a huge strain being put on the local medical care facilities that were not built to hold that many people that will all need ventilators due to the respiratory issues.
    Please explain why no hype, concern for overwhelming medical system every year with flu

    Seems to me that all these steps should be taken every year when we enter flu season if one is to look at pure statistical verifiable numbers and the true concern is overwhelming health system and deaths......

    Infections

    COVID-19: Approximately 127,863 cases worldwide; 1,323 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 12, 2020.

    Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

    Deaths

    COVID-19: Approximately 4,718 deaths reported worldwide; 38 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 12, 2020.

    Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
    Basketball...The Toy Department of Life

    Don't mess wth happy...Coach Few

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    ...
    Name checks out.

  12. #112
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    I think at this point it's irrelevant what you think about the severity of the virus by historical standards. We're not all coming to our senses, right or wrong. Going to have to deal with reality that we're probably done for the year.
    Krozman
    GU student 1996-2000
    Law Student 2000-2003

  13. #113
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    Duke, Arizona St., and Kansas Universities have just announced that if there is an NCAA Tournament that they will not go. I can now see where this is going. Individual universities are now taking responsibility when the NCAA won't. Before the ACC announced that it was canceling the Conference Tournament, Duke had already made the decision that their basketball team would NOT be showing up for their game later this afternoon. This certainly could have influenced the ACC's decision to cancel.
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  14. #114

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopaholic View Post
    Please explain why no hype, concern for overwhelming medical system every year with flu

    Seems to me that all these steps should be taken every year when we enter flu season if one is to look at pure statistical verifiable numbers and the true concern is overwhelming health system and deaths......

    Infections

    COVID-19: Approximately 127,863 cases worldwide; 1,323 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 12, 2020.

    Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

    Deaths

    COVID-19: Approximately 4,718 deaths reported worldwide; 38 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 12, 2020.

    Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
    You do realize there are no vaccines currently for this virus and we are currently just at the onset of its spreading? Update your COVID-19 numbers in a month.. lets see how much it has increased.

  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopaholic View Post
    Please explain why no hype, concern for overwhelming medical system every year with flu

    Seems to me that all these steps should be taken every year when we enter flu season if one is to look at pure statistical verifiable numbers and the true concern is overwhelming health system and deaths......

    Infections

    COVID-19: Approximately 127,863 cases worldwide; 1,323 cases in the U.S. as of Mar. 12, 2020.

    Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

    Deaths

    COVID-19: Approximately 4,718 deaths reported worldwide; 38 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 12, 2020.

    Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
    You're comparing numbers at the beginning of the outbreak, before it has really spread, to a full year's totals. Just look up what is happening in Northern Italy if you're curious why this is being taking so seriously.

    And the need for treating people with the flu is already baked into our system. This outbreak is not.
    Agent provocateur

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    Your numbers are way off. One percent is over 3 million deaths per year.

    If I had a 1% chance of dying in a car every year that I was in one regularly, I probably would get around by bike.
    Seeing the statistical illiteracy on display amid this event (for the past 10 days or so) has put into context, for me, many of the disagreements I see or become involved in here, which are basketball analytics related. The world of GU boards makes so much more sense now.

  17. #117
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  18. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    You're comparing numbers at the beginning of the outbreak, before it has really spread, to a full year's totals. Just look up what is happening in Northern Italy if you're curious why this is being taking so seriously.

    And the need for treating people with the flu is already baked into our system. This outbreak is not.
    Part of my point....we have a long history of every year having teens of thousands die from flu but we don’t go hysterical and claim health system going to collapse
    Italy is a unique in it is heavily aged {high risk group} heravily engage in smoking (30% of all persons and also a risk factor) and greet everyone by kissing you on both sides of your cheek
    Basketball...The Toy Department of Life

    Don't mess wth happy...Coach Few

  19. #119
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    The NCAA is looking like their number 1 priority is to make money.

    But we all knew that 10 years ago.

    Go Bulldogs!!
    Do not go gentle into that good night,
    Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDABE80 View Post
    Self credentialing means?? And noting NO. ie ZERO deaths on this side of the mountains AND that the huge majority of Death in Seattle are exactly what I said......ie older infirm, chronic disease folks with underlying diseases (remember the majority are in the nursing homes), what's your point?? I also said.....not noted by you....was that Tony Fauci, MD was the overwhelming expert in the field and that I'll listen to his advice. Again.your point?? Or do you have a point??? If you do, make it.

    I hope you're not just a guy with too much time on his hands babbling for babling's sake.
    Right now I have way too much time on my hands.

    Have you changed your opinion from what you wrote less than a week ago regarding the likely threat and the mortality rate of Covid-19? Keep in mind when you wrote this, there was ample evident of a mortality rate 5x-20x greater than seasonal flu.

    this is not a huge deal anyway.at least in the US. THe old, chronic disease people (diabetes, congestive heart failure, neuromuscular disease, leukemics, people under RX for a whole host of things .usually are the victims. On the East Side of the mountains, we're doing fine. Mortality has been about what you might expect of a flu or flu variants.

  21. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonuvazag View Post
    Your numbers are way off. One percent is over 3 million deaths per year.

    If I had a 1% chance of dying in a car every year that I was in one regularly, I probably would get around by bike.
    Do you think that everyone dies in the US every year and 1% of that would be 3 million? I can't follow your math. It's not if you are going to die but what caused your death if you died.

    For this virus, do you think that death rates across demographics are the same? Do you think that the percentage of deaths reported include all infected?

    I understand why they are limiting large meetings (I think they should and have posted about it several times) but the people most at risk of dying or getting really sick have pre-existing conditions and are over 70. I'm not saying go business as usual but we can't afford to shut everything down for even a month. We literally can't afford it. So many work in schools, public transportation, travel, hospitality, restaurants, etc. and if we shut that down it would be much worse that the virus's impact.

    It's looking like a case of the treatment being worse than the disease.

  22. #122
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    Season is over IMO
    Basketball...The Toy Department of Life

    Don't mess wth happy...Coach Few

  23. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopaholic View Post
    Part of my point....we have a long history of every year having teens of thousands die from flu but we don’t go hysterical and claim health system going to collapse
    Italy is a unique in it is heavily aged {high risk group} heravily engage in smoking (30% of all persons and also a risk factor) and greet everyone by kissing you on both sides of your cheek
    Someone could easily accept your premise that the current situation in northern Italy will be more severe than we will see in most major American cities, but by what factor? Will our infection/hospitalization rate be .8x? .5x?

  24. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    Do you think that everyone dies in the US every year and 1% of that would be 3 million? I can't follow your math. It's not if you are going to die but what caused your death if you died.
    When you said you have a one percent chance of dying in car wreck, I took you literally. Didn't see anywhere you suggest a percentage of total deaths.
    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    For this virus, do you think that death rates across demographics are the same? Do you think that the percentage of deaths reported include all infected?
    No. I defer to Dr. Fauci, who has stated the virus is 10 times as lethal as the flu, overall. Maybe it will work out to be less. Let's hope so.
    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    I understand why they are limiting large meetings (I think they should and have posted about it several times) but the people most at risk of dying or getting really sick have pre-existing conditions and are over 70. I'm not saying go business as usual but we can't afford to shut everything down for even a month. We literally can't afford it. So many work in schools, public transportation, travel, hospitality, restaurants, etc. and if we shut that down it would be much worse that the virus's impact.

    It's looking like a case of the treatment being worse than the disease.
    Personally, I take it very seriously that our hospital systems could be overrun by sick people as that would cause problems for everyone that needs medical care. That's my concern. I think we can get over the economic shock in time.
    Agent provocateur

  25. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinfoilzag View Post
    It's a bummer that mass hysteria is setting in and may end up canceling the tournament. I'm still optimistic that cooler heads will prevail once people have more information. I think once there are more stories of most early cases recovering over the next few days it will influence the NCAA.

    I was looking for analogue to compare COVID-19 to. Last year in the US there were around 37,000 deaths and about 4.4 million medical incidents requiring hospital stays from car accidents. You had about a 1% chance of dying in a car wreck in 2019 (1 in 103). This is lower than dying from an opioid overdose or suicide but higher than the risk of dying from falling down (1 in 114).

    I hope everyone remembers that there is risk in everything and we aren't here to be safe, we are here to live while trying to be safe.

    We're all on death row, it's just a matter of scheduling.
    Take off the tinfoil, my man.

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