Spokane Regional ( COVID-19 Related )

[ProVeeZag]

Go Zags!!! All the high school basketball tourneys are going on this week in various venues all over the state. Unless something changes significantly with the virus over the next 10 days or so, we should be good to go.

[doctorzag]

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE DEATH RATE confirmed cases DEATH RATE all cases

80+ years old 21.9% 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

It looks like the greatest danger is among the elderly. That probably is because of the outbreak at the Senior Care center.

So if your under the age of 50 your chances of contracting and dying from this flu is extremely minute. Just like the common flu, only the elderly are at greater risk.
Media doing their best to disrupt and politicize this situation. Shame. Approx. 50 people will die today in the USA from the common flu. Almost all of them will be elderly.

[SWZag]

The NWAC (Northwest Athletic Conference), formally NWAACC (NW Athletic Association of Community Colleges) just suspended their Mens and Womens Basketball Tourneys, after several games were already played, due to the virus. Tourney held on the campus of Everett CC. More and more things are getting cancelled.

[MDABE80]

Seattle
s got empty streets and looks to be a city who bought the hype. In Spokane there are 4 documented. 2 of those already were discharged home. I doubt any team or even this Inslee character will shy away from Spokane. This is not a huge deal anyway.at least in the US. THe old, chronic disease people (diabetes, congestive heart failure, neuromuscular disease, leukemics, people under RX for a whole host of things .usually are the victims. On the East Side of the mountains, we're doing fine. Mortality has been about what you might expect of a flu or flu variants. It's the media that is forcing the politicians to pay attention. Media, as always, is doing their usual "looks at us" routine. i e clicks.

[LTownZag]

I'm guessing that in two weeks there will be a few cases in Spokane. Probably will depend on if there are a very small amount or larger. And where they think they came from. Just announced one is in a hospital in Wenatchee.

There are almost certainly covid-19 positive people in Spokane now, and within 2 weeks essentially every (even small) town in the country will have them. It's not if, and it's only a "when" within a very narrow time window. It has been spreading out from the Seattle Metro for nearly 8 weeks at this point.

We just need to not overwhelm various health/response institutions at the peaks days/weeks of infection.

[Zags11]

Seems to be two sides on this. One is we all are going to die and other is its nothing.

[Section 116]

NCAA is establishing contingency plans for March Madness: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...t-coronavirus/

[LTownZag]

Seems to be two sides on this. One is we all are going to die and other is its nothing.

I don’t hear either of those views ever articulated except, like this, in straw man caricatures of “the other side”

[caduceus]

Mortality has been about what you might expect of a flu or flu variants.

While raw mortality for COVID-19 is lower than influenza, its case fatality rate is at least an order of magnitude higher (around 20x given the data we have). And no vaccine for this one.

This Harvard epidemiologist seems pretty worried:

“I think the Seattle area in Washington state is potentially on the cusp off being a Wuhan 2.0,” cautioned Dr. Ding, epidemiologist, health economist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health.

Dr. Ding worries that the state is following a similar pattern to how coronavirus was first handled in Wuhan, China, where the country was slow to ramp up testing and containment.

He went on to note that the possibility of shutting down large events like Emerald City Comic Con in downtown Seattle should be something under “urgent consideration.” The yearly convention brought in 98,000 people in 2019, and plans to go forward as scheduled this year. However, tickets are refundable.

“This is where the difference between us becoming a runaway epidemic and a contained epidemic is social distancing,” he noted.

Italy has learned the hard way (4000 cases, 150 deaths in just two weeks). Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center has just closed their offices. Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Google are essentially shuttering offices now, at the direction of WA and King Co. Public Health. More to follow, and likely many more school closures. People over 60 are now being urged to stay in their homes in the Puget Sound region.

The big issue is whether ongoing measures will keep the health care delivery systems from becoming overloaded. Even if a small percentage of the population in Washington end up needing ICU care, we won't have enough beds by a longshot. That's what's happened in Italy.

Not trying to stoke fears, but this thing is being taken very, very seriously on the west side of the state.

[caduceus]

Seems to be two sides on this. One is we all are going to die and other is its nothing.

A. Eighty percent of infections are mild or even asymptomatic. Everyone is not going to die. But they might infect people at risk in their community, who could die in significant numbers.

B. It's definitely not nothing. See my post above.

[Ezag]

I work March Madness for NCAA and have so almost every year since 2003. I am starting at the Spokane site and have not heard about venue changes or anything else as of yet. To do our jobs as necessary, we would need to know with a fair amount of time in order to transfer production equipment etc to another facility.

As for the Covid-19, yes, most cases are mild but that is not the issue. The issue is that we don't know how it will spread or what happens when it starts to warm up (if it will go away or not) or what any mutations will be like. Will this now become a yearly virus such as the flu? We don't know. Since this virus has not existed before in its present form, the unknown is what is causing the most hysteria.

[MDABE80]

The data on case fatality will change over time. More so when subgroups grow. The over 80 group will suffer most. The healthy victims will hardly notice. High risk types will be sicker and perish at a higher rate. It’s always been like this. I talked to Fauci who predicts that most of this will be gone by the time a vaccine is developed. Expect overall mortality to be 1-2%...like most of these types of events. Hand washing and masking is what I’ve been doing. It’s about the best thing to do.

[SunDevilGolfZag]

Bottom line for me is if you have tickets to the Spokane games and don’t want to risk exposure, I’ll take them and bring my hand sanitizer

[LTownZag]

AGE DEATH RATE confirmed cases DEATH RATE all cases

80+ years old 21.9% 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

It looks like the greatest danger is among the elderly. That probably is because of the outbreak at the Senior Care center.

That... is not how the concept of a "rate" works.

[willandi]

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE DEATH RATE confirmed cases DEATH RATE all cases

80+ years old 21.9% 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

It looks like the greatest danger is among the elderly. That probably is because of the outbreak at the Senior Care center.

That... is not how the concept of a "rate" functions.

You have to read the disclaimer above the part you quoted.