GU Bigs: Analytics Thread v2.0

[hooter73]

( Moderator's Note: This thread was created to pull the discussion / analytics of GU Big men from the Petrusev Post BYU Game discussion thread )



The thought came up earlier in this thread that other WCC teams don't have physical bigs that he's used to playing against. The guy goes up against Ballo every day in practice, I have a hard time believing that he's not used to banging against a big physical player but who knows, none of us are there to really see it. I think Petrusev has all the tools to be great next year if he learns to hold onto the ball, play some semblance of hard fronting defense against bigs and also move his feet to switch on drives, and then dunk every. single. thing.

Chances are he'll Norvell it and head out though.

[LTownZag]

After reading the Petrusev article in The Athletic I think he would/will be very comfortable and happy as a pro in Europe, not the NBA. Seems like he will happily “go home” and make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year for the next 12 years.

Much more so than many (especially American) college players, I don’t think he will wait to be “nba ready” (whatever that means) before stopping college. Him leaving in 3 months will not be predicated on NBA feedback, IMO.

[LTownZag]

P And he showed me that, regardless of what some think, he had turned himself into one of the best low players in Zag History.

Which Gonzaga low post starters from the past 10 years is Petrusev better than, or you'd want him starting over, if both on the team this year?

Even going back 20 years, it's hard to imagine finding a way to rank Filip "one of the best" unless you mean "one of the 10 best out of 13 total".

Maybe Batista or Dower? Seems like FP is toward the bottom 1/3rd of the starting 5 men since 1999.


Clarke
Jw3
Collins
Karnowski
Sabonis
Sacre
Dower
Heytvelt
Daye
Turiaf
Batista
Violette
Calvary

leaving off obviously better players who had more outside range (Tillie, Rui, Wiltjer, Harris)

[TexasZagFan]

Which Gonzaga low post players from the past 20 years is Petrusev better than, or you'd want him starting over, if both on the team this year?

Maybe Batista or Dower? Seems like FP is toward the bottom 1/3rd of this list.


Clarke
Jw3
Karnowski
Sabonis
Turiaf
Sacre
Calvary
Collins
Dower
Heytvelt
Daye
Batista

leaving off obviously better players who had more outside range (Tillie, Rui, Wiltjer)

With a couple of exceptions, the players on your list played 3, if not 4 years for the Zags. That makes it an unfair comparison IMO. For example, when we think of Karno the Magnificent, it's as a 5th year senior. I think Filip would fare much more favorably if he were compared to Karno as a sophomore.

[Markburn1]

I am not a fan of the complaining... but pay attention... because 95% of the time he is correct. He gets hacked... a lot... with rarely a call. He just needs to learn to suck it up and move on.

I don't disagree with this. I'm not sure 95% is accurate. And, this is a big boy's game. Filip isn't the only big in the country that gets hacked, pushed and bodied and he isn't unique in not getting calls. I also think the refs have his number now and he will have to fight bias there as well. The striped guys are human too and they are not giving Petro the benefit of the doubt because of all the complaining. Especially David Hall. That guy is not very good and I cringe every time I see him before the tip. He won't give Filip a call the rest of his career.

[LongIslandZagFan]

Which Gonzaga low post players from the past 10 years is Petrusev better than, or you'd want him starting over, if both on the team this year?

Even going back 20 years, it's hard to imagine finding a way to rank Filip "one of the best" unless you mean "one of the 10 best out of 13 total".

Maybe Batista or Dower? Seems like FP is toward the bottom 1/3rd of the starting 5 men since 1999.


Clarke
Jw3
Collins
Karnowski
Sabonis
Sacre
Dower
Heytvelt
Daye
Turiaf
Batista
Violette
Calvary

leaving off obviously better players who had more outside range (Tillie, Rui, Wiltjer, Harris)

Assuming sophomore versions of the above.. when possible... I'd start him over Dower and, it pains me to say cuz I loved the kid, Violette. I think he'd give sophomore version of Mt. K a serious run for his money... likewise Sacre.

[zagfan1]

I don’t think anyone is discounting what Petro has done this year. We have realized that with him the Zags have championship potential. Maybe strong is the wrong word. If he uses better technique he could be unstoppable down low. The reality for this year is that because of Petro we could win it all. Just pointing out if he didn’t fumble away the ball against BYU we win regardless of how hot or cold the team is shooting from beyond the arc. I consider this more a compliment to his capabilities rather than a criticism of his mistakes. I am sure Few will be all over this in practice.

[LTownZag]

With a couple of exceptions, the players on your list played 3, if not 4 years for the Zags. That makes it an unfair comparison IMO. For example, when we think of Karno the Magnificent, it's as a 5th year senior. I think Filip would fare much more favorably if he were compared to Karno as a sophomore.

Make the sophomore year comparison if you want (or freshman year, comparing to some guys like Collins and Sabonis and even Timme as freshmen). Wouldn't you start most of those guys over FP?

I'm just comparing starters at the "5", regardless of what year they were at in school during the season.

FP
Clarke
Jw3
Karnowski
Sabonis
Karnowski
Dower
Olynyk
Sacre
Sacre


Dower and maybe Sacre seem like the only justifiable candidates to start over FP.


(it's a fun side conversation but I think junior year Karno, who helped get GU to the elite 8 and nearly knocked off eventual champs Duke while matched up w/Okafor, was slightly better than 5th year senior Karnowski, but it's a very close comparison. I'd take either version to start vs FP, but I'd take FP over freshman or sophomore version of Karnowski.)

[LongIslandZagFan]

Just because I think it is interesting more than anything else... Who would you start based on blind per game averages:

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%
A	24.5	10.9	5.8	1.3	0.5	1	1.8	62.2	50.4	100
B	25.3	10.3	5.4	0.6	0.7	1.9	2	52.6	62.9	100
C	27.4	11.4	8	1	1	0.7	1.6	50.3	57.4	26.1
D	26	12.4	6	1.3	0.6	0.4	1.8	51.7	77.2	35.3
E	18.1	8.3	3.7	0.6	0.5	0.3	1.2	53.8	76.7	40
F	31.8	17.6	11.8	1.8	0.6	0.9	2.6	61.1	76.9	35.7
G	17.2	10	5.9	0.4	0.5	1.8	1.5	65.2	74.3	47.6
H	26.2	15.5	7.7	0.4	0.4	1.7	1.6	53.7	71.8	40.4
I	25.8	17.4	7.8	1.3	0.7	0.9	2.2	56.3	65.4	18.2

[LTownZag]

Assuming sophomore versions of the above.. when possible... I'd start him over Dower and, it pains me to say cuz I loved the kid, Violette. I think he'd give sophomore version of Mt. K a serious run for his money... likewise Sacre.

Thanks LIZF - that seems about right to me. I appreciate your perspective. It sure seems (from tiny glimpses) that FP has a much better outside shot than many of our past big men. It would have helped move him up that list if a decent outside shot had become a part of his arsenal. Makes me wonder why the coaching staff hasn't brought that into play.

[LTownZag]

Just because I think it is interesting more than anything else... Who would you start based on blind per game averages:

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%
A	24.5	10.9	5.8	1.3	0.5	1	1.8	62.2	50.4	100
B	25.3	10.3	5.4	0.6	0.7	1.9	2	52.6	62.9	100
C	27.4	11.4	8	1	1	0.7	1.6	50.3	57.4	26.1
D	26	12.4	6	1.3	0.6	0.4	1.8	51.7	77.2	35.3
E	18.1	8.3	3.7	0.6	0.5	0.3	1.2	53.8	76.7	40
F	31.8	17.6	11.8	1.8	0.6	0.9	2.6	61.1	76.9	35.7
G	17.2	10	5.9	0.4	0.5	1.8	1.5	65.2	74.3	47.6
H	26.2	15.5	7.7	0.4	0.4	1.7	1.6	53.7	71.8	40.4
I	25.8	17.4	7.8	1.3	0.7	0.9	2.2	56.3	65.4	18.2

Fun game! If you are grabbing those stats off a half decent website, it is probably easy to trade them out for per-40minute averages or per-100 possession averages, which makes for better comparisons.

Otherwise it punishes elite players on deep/balanced teams (Collins 2017) and makes stars out of lesser players forced into logging big minutes.

(I'd take "I")

[LongIslandZagFan]

If you are grabbing those stats off a half decent website, can you trade them out for per-40minute averages or per-100 posession averages?

Otherwise it punishes elite players on deep/balanced teams (Collins 2017) and makes stars out of lesser players forced into logging big minutes.

Curse of dealing with the interwebs... because the range of dates is so wide, not all players are on all websites save the one I used... not happy about it, but best I could do.

If you know of a website that would let me see college stats that go back to 2000 or so, let me know, I would gladly redo this list.

[LTownZag]

Curse of dealing with the interwebs... because the range of dates is so wide, not all players are on all websites save the one I used... not happy about it, but best I could do.

If you know of a website that would let me see college stats that go back to 2000 or so, let me know, I would gladly redo this list.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...zaga/2010.html

[Mr Vulture]

Just because I think it is interesting more than anything else... Who would you start based on blind per game averages:

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG%	FT%	3P%
A	24.5	10.9	5.8	1.3	0.5	1	1.8	62.2	50.4	100
B	25.3	10.3	5.4	0.6	0.7	1.9	2	52.6	62.9	100
C	27.4	11.4	8	1	1	0.7	1.6	50.3	57.4	26.1
D	26	12.4	6	1.3	0.6	0.4	1.8	51.7	77.2	35.3
E	18.1	8.3	3.7	0.6	0.5	0.3	1.2	53.8	76.7	40
F	31.8	17.6	11.8	1.8	0.6	0.9	2.6	61.1	76.9	35.7
G	17.2	10	5.9	0.4	0.5	1.8	1.5	65.2	74.3	47.6
H	26.2	15.5	7.7	0.4	0.4	1.7	1.6	53.7	71.8	40.4
I	25.8	17.4	7.8	1.3	0.7	0.9	2.2	56.3	65.4	18.2

Not sure whom is whom but I would vote "F" first and "G" second

[LongIslandZagFan]

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...zaga/2010.html

Awesome... thanks...

Here are the same players with per 40 stats. All from Sophomore years (when possible):

	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
A	6.4	10.8	0.593	6.4	10.8	0.596	0	0	0	4	8.1	0.5	11.4	1.2	0.4	2.8	3.1	4.6	16.9
B	5.6	10.7	0.526	5.6	10.7	0.524	0	0	1	5	7.9	0.629	8.5	0.9	1.1	3	3.2	4.6	16
C	7.2	14.4	0.498	6.7	12.6	0.529	0.5	1.8	0.282	4.5	5.9	0.766	12.6	1.5	1.4	1.3	2	4.1	19.4
D	7	13.5	0.517	6.2	11.2	0.551	0.8	2.3	0.353	4.3	5.6	0.772	9.2	2	1	0.5	2.7	3.3	19
E	7	13	0.538	6.5	11.7	0.554	0.5	1.3	0.4	3.7	4.9	0.767	8.2	1.3	1.1	0.7	2.7	4.2	18.3
F	8.3	13.6	0.611	8.1	13.1	0.621	0.2	0.5	0.357	5.2	6.8	0.769	14.8	2.2	0.8	1.1	3.2	4	22
G	8	12.3	0.652	7.4	11.1	0.672	0.6	1.2	0.476	6.5	8.8	0.743	13.7	1	1.1	4.1	3.6	6.2	23.2
H	8.8	16.3	0.537	7.5	13.2	0.569	1.3	3.2	0.404	4.8	6.7	0.718	11.8	0.7	0.7	2.6	2.4	4.6	23.7
I	9.8	17.4	0.563	9.7	16.8	0.576	0.1	0.6	0.182	7.3	11.1	0.654	12.1	2	1.1	1.3	3.4	2.7	27

Again, who would you start

[ZagOD7540]

I don't disagree with this. I'm not sure 95% is accurate. And, this is a big boy's game. Filip isn't the only big in the country that gets hacked, pushed and bodied and he isn't unique in not getting calls. I also think the refs have his number now and he will have to fight bias there as well. The striped guys are human too and they are not giving Petro the benefit of the doubt because of all the complaining. Especially David Hall. That guy is not very good and I cringe every time I see him before the tip. He won't give Filip a call the rest of his career.

I’m with you. Every time I see David Hall calling a game, you can expect some awful calls. I’m not sure how he continues to get games. I don’t think he could call a clean game in my son’s 7th grade AAU league. That guy is an absolute joke

[LongIslandZagFan]

FYI... will post the players names later tonight... gotta drive home now

[scrooner]

The foul rate gives away G

[LTownZag]

Awesome... thanks...

Here are the same players with per 40 stats. All from Sophomore years (when possible):

	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
A	6.4	10.8	0.593	6.4	10.8	0.596	0	0	0	4	8.1	0.5	11.4	1.2	0.4	2.8	3.1	4.6	16.9
B	5.6	10.7	0.526	5.6	10.7	0.524	0	0	1	5	7.9	0.629	8.5	0.9	1.1	3	3.2	4.6	16
C	7.2	14.4	0.498	6.7	12.6	0.529	0.5	1.8	0.282	4.5	5.9	0.766	12.6	1.5	1.4	1.3	2	4.1	19.4
D	7	13.5	0.517	6.2	11.2	0.551	0.8	2.3	0.353	4.3	5.6	0.772	9.2	2	1	0.5	2.7	3.3	19
E	7	13	0.538	6.5	11.7	0.554	0.5	1.3	0.4	3.7	4.9	0.767	8.2	1.3	1.1	0.7	2.7	4.2	18.3
F	8.3	13.6	0.611	8.1	13.1	0.621	0.2	0.5	0.357	5.2	6.8	0.769	14.8	2.2	0.8	1.1	3.2	4	22
G	8	12.3	0.652	7.4	11.1	0.672	0.6	1.2	0.476	6.5	8.8	0.743	13.7	1	1.1	4.1	3.6	6.2	23.2
H	8.8	16.3	0.537	7.5	13.2	0.569	1.3	3.2	0.404	4.8	6.7	0.718	11.8	0.7	0.7	2.6	2.4	4.6	23.7
I	9.8	17.4	0.563	9.7	16.8	0.576	0.1	0.6	0.182	7.3	11.1	0.654	12.1	2	1.1	1.3	3.4	2.7	27

Again, who would you start

I'm sticking with "I" in this round as well. Though on this year's team it might be nice to have the rim protection and 3pt shooting of "H". I hope other's offer opinions, but usually people like to avoid specificity in making claims and arguments.

[jazzdelmar]

Which Gonzaga low post starters from the past 10 years is Petrusev better than, or you'd want him starting over, if both on the team this year?

Even going back 20 years, it's hard to imagine finding a way to rank Filip "one of the best" unless you mean "one of the 10 best out of 13 total".

Maybe Batista or Dower? Seems like FP is toward the bottom 1/3rd of the starting 5 men since 1999.


Clarke
Jw3
Collins
Karnowski
Sabonis
Sacre
Dower
Heytvelt
Daye
Turiaf
Batista
Violette
Calvary

leaving off obviously better players who had more outside range (Tillie, Rui, Wiltjer, Harris)

Dower.....hmmmm......that's all folks.

[LongIslandZagFan]

The foul rate gives away G

Well for one of them, yeah... some of the per 40 numbers on some of these guys surprised me.

[Hoopaholic]

Awesome... thanks...

Here are the same players with per 40 stats. All from Sophomore years (when possible):

	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
A	6.4	10.8	0.593	6.4	10.8	0.596	0	0	0	4	8.1	0.5	11.4	1.2	0.4	2.8	3.1	4.6	16.9
B	5.6	10.7	0.526	5.6	10.7	0.524	0	0	1	5	7.9	0.629	8.5	0.9	1.1	3	3.2	4.6	16
C	7.2	14.4	0.498	6.7	12.6	0.529	0.5	1.8	0.282	4.5	5.9	0.766	12.6	1.5	1.4	1.3	2	4.1	19.4
D	7	13.5	0.517	6.2	11.2	0.551	0.8	2.3	0.353	4.3	5.6	0.772	9.2	2	1	0.5	2.7	3.3	19
E	7	13	0.538	6.5	11.7	0.554	0.5	1.3	0.4	3.7	4.9	0.767	8.2	1.3	1.1	0.7	2.7	4.2	18.3
F	8.3	13.6	0.611	8.1	13.1	0.621	0.2	0.5	0.357	5.2	6.8	0.769	14.8	2.2	0.8	1.1	3.2	4	22
G	8	12.3	0.652	7.4	11.1	0.672	0.6	1.2	0.476	6.5	8.8	0.743	13.7	1	1.1	4.1	3.6	6.2	23.2
H	8.8	16.3	0.537	7.5	13.2	0.569	1.3	3.2	0.404	4.8	6.7	0.718	11.8	0.7	0.7	2.6	2.4	4.6	23.7
I	9.8	17.4	0.563	9.7	16.8	0.576	0.1	0.6	0.182	7.3	11.1	0.654	12.1	2	1.1	1.3	3.4	2.7	27

Again, who would you start

F. Free throws solid rebounding is exceptional passing out of post is awesome(assists) points is solid

If what we need or missing this year then G gets the nod with the 4.1 blocks and 1.1 steals. But turnovers and fouls would be a concern

[LongIslandZagFan]

Be interesting to see who people thinks is who. All are centers/pf... all are since the initial run. NO CHEATING. I'll post who is who tomorrow.

Gotta say C intrigued me with the per 40 numbers.

[ProVeeZag]

I sure miss Marc Armstead in times like these.

I was thinking Jeremy Pargo ... he didn't take it from anyone.

[GonzagasaurusFlex]

Filip will be a beast when he learns how to take care of the ball. IMO, it's a matter of developing strength in his hands, and being mentally prepared for contact.

He's one of the biggest reasons why we're 27-2, and he deserves much more respect than he's been getting. I'm confident he'll figure it out.

Agree w you 100% TZF. Petrusev is light years ahead of where he was last season and his improved hands are a huge reason. Surprised folks are saying he constantly gets stripped of the ball; I saw that a lot last year but not this year. He absolutely needs to play w more fire and intensity and physicality on the defensive side of the ball but dude is a stud and still improving. I just hope we can all enjoy watching him as a Zag his junior year.... but whatever happens, he is a Zag for life and I look forward to cheering for him.