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Thread: End of the Zags 2020 season, who stays, who goes?

  1. #51

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    i'm pretty sure petrusev is gone...it's likely been his plan all along considering he already got draft feedback last year. i don't see him coming back unless it's clear he won't be drafted at all. he's already taken a big jump from his freshman year and i don't see him significantly improving his draft stock by staying. it's not like his numbers are going to get much better than the 16 and 8 he's putting up this year with all the weapons coming in for next year. coach few also isn't going to suddenly give him the green light to start jacking shots from 3 just so he can try and impress scouts; which btw, filip is a better outside shooter than his stats would indicate and he'll have the chance to show that in draft workouts.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by bdmiller7 View Post
    There is more pay and guaranteed contracts in the first round, but way too many people just assume if he stays another year he will be a first round pick the next year. There are some players that stay and move up, but there are just as many that stay another year and dont get drafted at all. The NBA drafts on potential, so they usually dont think a player gets better, just older. The amount of freshmen and sophomores taken in the first round every year shows that. Every player has things they need to improve on, very few each year are ready to actually contribute in the NBA their first year. He will be better with another year at GU, but he would also be better with a year playing professionally even if it's in the G-League, where is only job is basketball. Slipperstillfits had a good story today where they talked about Ayayi and the NBA and they all said the same thing, if you're going to get drafted you need to go for it, that opportunity might not be around the next year. For these guys the NBA has been their goal since they were kids, if it's finally within reach, I say take it. No one knows with any kind of certainty what will happen, good or bad, with another year of college.
    Thanks!

    I thought it was odd to read suggestions that Ayayi would develop for a year if he stayed at GU, but if he got drafted and starting playing B-Ball full time, he'd plateau and not reach those levels.

  3. #53
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    No way Ayayi is drafted this year unless he has a fantastic Tournament. I love him and hope for his sake I'm wrong, but just don't see it. The case could be made for another year at GU to try to get drafted in the first round. It's a tough road to the NBA if you go undrafted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagricultural View Post
    No way Ayayi is drafted this year unless he has a fantastic Tournament. I love him and hope for his sake I'm wrong, but just don't see it. The case could be made for another year at GU to try to get drafted in the first round. It's a tough road to the NBA if you go undrafted.
    What are your sources that he would go undrafted. No disrespect but that is laughable.
    SI, Bleacher report, the athletic and tankathon have in in the 20s for 2020, Espn has him early second round for 2021. But maybe you know something that they don't.

    Also, the 2021 draft is widely regarded as much much stronger than this bad 2020 draft. Something to keep in mind.

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    I think Filip and Joel and one another player will leave for NBA this year.
    Probably the only Gonzaga fan in Ireland!

  6. #56
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    Default March Madness will determine who leaves

    Quote Originally Posted by GonzagasaurusFlex View Post
    With you GrizZAG. No Zags underclassmen have shined so bright as yet to convince me they will be drafted in 1st round, but several could shine bright enough in March/April for that to happen.
    Totally agree with your assessment. If the Zags win the title with Ayayi and Kispert really shining, they could be going. Remember Villanova's last title. Dante Vicenzo would not have gone to the NBA except for his incredible tournament final's game. Petrusev will be gone unless he really goes into a slump. With Timme and Ballo in the wings, I don't see how he would greatly benefit from staying another year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zags1993 View Post
    What are your sources that he would go undrafted. No disrespect but that is laughable.
    SI, Bleacher report, the athletic and tankathon have in in the 20s for 2020, Espn has him early second round for 2021. But maybe you know something that they don't.

    Also, the 2021 draft is widely regarded as much much stronger than this bad 2020 draft. Something to keep in mind.
    SI and Bleacher Report are far from reliable sources. Yes, SI is a name, but it's not the 1990's anymore. Never even heard of Tankathon, who runs that? I did just go to The Athletic, as I think Vecenie is a good evaluator and has some contacts. While you are correct that he has Ayayi "in the 20's", it is at 29 which is hardly a ringing endorsement for leaving school. I think Ayayi declares for the draft, but I would be shocked if he didn't return to Gonzaga for next year. He'd still only be barely 21 when they draft was held doing that and I think he could very well play his way into the lottery on a potential title team.

    EDIT: I did a little research to find out who was ranked the most reliable/accurate over the years and it came to three places. One was DraftExpress (acquired by ESPN), second was ESPN (Chad Ford), and number three was a site called "The Stepian". None of those sites even list Ayayi as a player in their 2020 draft rankings done recently. Now, if Ayayi did declare, I do think he'd have a shot at the 2nd round, but neither do these sites. Just to compare, last year Clarke wasn't listed at all but he was moving up boards and on all of these by January.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    SI and Bleacher Report are far from reliable sources. Yes, SI is a name, but it's not the 1990's anymore. Never even heard of Tankathon, who runs that? I did just go to The Athletic, as I think Vecenie is a good evaluator and has some contacts. While you are correct that he has Ayayi "in the 20's", it is at 29 which is hardly a ringing endorsement for leaving school. I think Ayayi declares for the draft, but I would be shocked if he didn't return to Gonzaga for next year. He'd still only be barely 21 when they draft was held doing that and I think he could very well play his way into the lottery on a potential title team.

    EDIT: I did a little research to find out who was ranked the most reliable/accurate over the years and it came to three places. One was DraftExpress (acquired by ESPN), second was ESPN (Chad Ford), and number three was a site called "The Stepian". None of those sites even list Ayayi as a player in their 2020 draft rankings done recently. Now, if Ayayi did declare, I do think he'd have a shot at the 2nd round, but neither do these sites. Just to compare, last year Clarke wasn't listed at all but he was moving up boards and on all of these by January.
    Chad ford hasn't released a mock draft since the 2017 draft and the stepien hasn't released his 2020 mock draft yet. As for Draftexpress/espn they have him in 2021. Let's be accurate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    SI and Bleacher Report are far from reliable sources. Yes, SI is a name, but it's not the 1990's anymore. Never even heard of Tankathon, who runs that? I did just go to The Athletic, as I think Vecenie is a good evaluator and has some contacts. While you are correct that he has Ayayi "in the 20's", it is at 29 which is hardly a ringing endorsement for leaving school. I think Ayayi declares for the draft, but I would be shocked if he didn't return to Gonzaga for next year. He'd still only be barely 21 when they draft was held doing that and I think he could very well play his way into the lottery on a potential title team.
    Vulture - is "Joel will not be drafted this year and isn't a projected draft pick" some kind of mantra for you? You recite it in the face of evidence to the contrary - an odd hill to stake out ground on. Are there any updated projections from the last 2 weeks that don't have him as a first rounder?

    From Dec 12:
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    Ayayi is much improved but not even close to NBA level at this point. Zero chance he'd be drafted this year and haven't seen one reputable site that even has him ranked.
    (it was this pointed out that Ayayi was #22 on Sports Illustrated draft from early December & a first rounder on Bleacher Report)

    From Dec 31
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    If Ayayi wants to play in the NBA, he is not leaving. I like Joel, but he needs at least one more year in the program to even have a shot at the NBA.
    (It's pointed out that he's now a projected first round pick by Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, and Tankathon)

    Jan 6
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Vulture View Post
    I believe he really needs another year in the program. As far as draft projections, he wasn't even ranked in the draft projections last month [sic ??] on the more reliable sites (had no idea SI had one). I don't even think he's the best guard on the team right now although the NBA is about upside and he has the most upside. He would never see the floor next year in the NBA

    I want Joel to stay. I get the impression you do too. But what does it mean to say he "needs another year @ GU"? Needs it in order to do what?

    I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and say he's not (or hasn't been) a first round draft projection for weeks now, or that his game couldn't theoretically improve if he is a full time b-ball player next year, even if that isn't on an NBA roster. It could also improve if he returns to GU. There's a huge difference between "I want him to stay and think it would be the best choice for his development" VS "nobody expects him to be a draft pick and his only path to improving is via college BBall".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladyzag12 View Post
    You can ease up on that horse. Pretty sure its dead.
    Why? Not germane to the convo?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zags1993 View Post
    Chad ford hasn't released a mock draft since the 2017 draft and the stepien hasn't released his 2020 mock draft yet. As for Draftexpress/espn they have him in 2021. Let's be accurate.
    If you'd like to be accurate, Stepien does not do a mock draft. They do a draft prospect ranking in which Ayayi is not in at this point. As for the rankings, they were not my rankings as they were a summary of accuracy based on cumulative over the years.

    I did err assuming Chad Ford was still doing the ESPN stuff. With that said, Givony just released a mock draft for 2020 on ESPN two weeks ago and Ayayi was not part of that. As for 2021, not sure what that has to do with this year, which was the subject of the thread. All I said is that he is not being projected in the most reliable mock drafts/rankings for this season which is accurate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Vulture - is "Joel will not be drafted this year and isn't a projected draft pick" some kind of mantra for you? You recite it in the face of evidence to the contrary - an odd hill to stake out ground on. Are there any updated projections from the last 2 weeks that don't have him as a first rounder?

    From Dec 12:
    (it was this pointed out that Ayayi was #22 on Sports Illustrated draft from early December & a first rounder on Bleacher Report)

    From Dec 31
    (It's pointed out that he's now a projected first round pick by Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, and Tankathon)

    Jan 6


    I want Joel to stay. I get the impression you do too. But what does it mean to say he "needs another year @ GU"? Needs it in order to do what?

    I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and say he's not (or hasn't been) a first round draft projection for weeks now, or that his game couldn't theoretically improve if he is a full time b-ball player next year, even if that isn't on an NBA roster. It could also improve if he returns to GU. There's a huge difference between "I want him to stay and think it would be the best choice for his development" VS "nobody expects him to be a draft pick and his only path to improving is via college BBall".
    As you can see from your timeline, my thoughts on Joel have evolved as the season progressed. I do not believe that he will be a first round pick this year. I do believe he will declare (which he should)and come back. I even specifically said I thought he could be a 2nd rounder this year. At no point did I ever post the final quotes you posted. ESPN posted a 2 round mock draft 14 days ago and Ayayi was not listed in it. It did include Petrusev in the mid 2nd round.

    The historical accuracy rankings I added were independent and I provided those sites in context. I do not believe that SI, BR, or whatever Tankathon is are reliable sources. If you want to believe he will be a first rounder and leave this year, more power to you. I don't think that is accurate and I believe he will be back. In fairness, I do think the Athletic is pretty solid source so that one does have him barely in the first round.

    It's not that I don't like Ayayi, I was one of his biggest supporters last year when many were saying he wasn't a GU level player. I just think that he will have a shot to really improve his game and his stock over the next year. Do I think he'd see the floor in the NBA next season if he left, not really, but I do think he is a NBA player as he develops. He is still very young even though he has been here three years.

  13. #63
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    You rarely see players stay a second season and really improve their stock much. PJ Washington did this last draft at Kentucky. Ayayi is a borderline first right now. I can't see him ever getting into the lottery, so if he has a chance at the first round he should go. Petrusev is as good as gone. If he was going to show the improvement needed to get him to the first round, namely better rim defense and pick and roll defense, he would have shown it by now. Corey is interesting because he is definitely in that late second slash two way contract pool, and that will be there after next season as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladyzag12 View Post
    You rarely see players stay a second season and really improve their stock much. PJ Washington did this last draft at Kentucky. Ayayi is a borderline first right now. I can't see him ever getting into the lottery, so if he has a chance at the first round he should go. Petrusev is as good as gone. If he was going to show the improvement needed to get him to the first round, namely better rim defense and pick and roll defense, he would have shown it by now. Corey is interesting because he is definitely in that late second slash two way contract pool, and that will be there after next season as well.
    I think this is all fair, just a difference of opinion. I agree on Petrusev, I expect that he’s going after this season whether it’s NBA or Europe. I do think he gets a shot at the league though


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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    I think Joel and Petro are even less prepared for the NBA than Norvell was. Draw your own conclusions.
    Agree. Joel maybe closer.
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    Rarely do I discuss players departing for the pros but the best I see for Petro is maybe getting a look from the NBA... He isn't physically tough enough at this point in his career to play a back to the basket 5 in the NBA, and those type of players are disappearing for stretch 4s & 5s... most likely Europe will be his home... his hops aren't going to improve and his defense is not close to being dominant... really good college player and teammate... unless he develops an outside shot... it's the G league or overseas....

    Just my opinion...

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    Sam Vecenie's Top 100 "NBA Draft Big Board" (as of 2/28/20) assigns the Zags as follows:

    41 - Joel Ayayi
    55 - Corey Kispert
    57 - Killian Tillie
    76 - Filip Petrusev

    https://theathletic.com/1635879/2020...ce=weeklyemail

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    The way that Petrol is playing lately, he is nowhere near ready for the NBA. This is not a knock on Petrol, he's awesome, but he's an awesome college player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RenoZag View Post
    Sam Vecenie's Top 100 "NBA Draft Big Board" (as of 2/28/20) assigns the Zags as follows:

    41 - Joel Ayayi
    55 - Corey Kispert
    57 - Killian Tillie
    76 - Filip Petrusev

    https://theathletic.com/1635879/2020...ce=weeklyemail
    If I'm an NBA GM with a pick in the second round, I'm taking Tillie. And I wouldn't be surprised about halfway through next season if the people in the League are touting Killian as the steal of the draft.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    If I'm an NBA GM with a pick in the second round, I'm taking Tillie. And I wouldn't be surprised about halfway through next season if the people in the League are touting Killian as the steal of the draft.
    Agree would not shock me at any point in second round.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SorenTodd45 View Post
    The way that Petrol is playing lately, he is nowhere near ready for the NBA. This is not a knock on Petrol, he's awesome, but he's an awesome college player.
    01/18/20 BYU * 15 2-4 .500 0-0 .000 1-2 .500 3 2 5 7.7 1 1 3 1 1 5
    01/25/20 Pacific * 20 6-10 .600 0-0 .000 3-9 .333 2 4 6 7.6 1 0 2 0 1 15
    01/30/20 at Santa Clara * 29 14-18 .778 0-0 .000 3-6 .500 1 8 9 7.7 2 0 1 0 3 31
    02/01/20 at San Francisco * 30 8-14 .571 0-0 .000 7-12 .583 0 11 11 7.8 4 1 2 0 2 23
    02/06/20 Loyola Marymount *31 5-6 .833 0-0 .000 11-15 .733 2 4 6 7.8 1 1 2 0 0 21
    02/08/20 at Saint Mary's (CA) *30 8-11 .727 1-1 1.000 1-3 .333 2 9 11 7.9 2 2 4 0 1 18
    02/15/20 at Pepperdine * 35 9-20 .450 0-0 .000 9-13 .692 4 8 12 8.0 1 3 2 1 1 27
    02/20/20 San Francisco * 27 7-14 .500 0-0 .000 2-4 .500 2 5 7 8.0 1 0 1 0 1 16
    02/22/20 at BYU * 22 4-8 .500 0-0 .000 6-7 .857 0 2 2 7.8 3 1 4 0 0 14
    02/27/20 San Diego * 26 9-17 .529 0-0 .000 3-7 .429 5 4 9 7.8 1 0 1 0 0 21

    Here are his last few games. I included BYU where he had 5 pts. Points are the last number on each line.

    I don't believe he is NBA ready but, as people say ALL the time, the NBA drafts on potential.

    I hope he is back, but expect that he will go to Europe to be semi wealthy, if he isn't drafted by the NBA.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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    I just don’t understand college basketball anymore. It seems to be less and less relevant in terms of developing as a pro prospect. Does Ammo leave after his freshman year if he played in this day and age?

    All due respect to Ayayi, I’m sure he’s considered a good prospect based on age and potential but that’s about all I can figure. It seems like he’s a factor 5-10 min per game, the rest he’s invisible.

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by cscz28 View Post
    I just don’t understand college basketball anymore. It seems to be less and less relevant in terms of developing as a pro prospect. Does Ammo leave after his freshman year if he played in this day and age?

    All due respect to Ayayi, I’m sure he’s considered a good prospect based on age and potential but that’s about all I can figure. It seems like he’s a factor 5-10 min per game, the rest he’s invisible.
    Ammo would be a lottery after soph yr

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    Pre season I predicted there guys would be drafted. Now, I don't make a prediction on who's leaving but I predict that none of the players on this year's team will be on an NBA roster next year. If they leave, it'll be the Norvell track.

    Petru needs to come back and dominate. He's only a sophomore and can be a lottery pick if he improves.

    If Ayayi is projected to go first round or early second he should leave. I don't think coming back would improve his stock.

    I think Tillie will go undrafted unless he dominates in the next four games, but he's not even really playing tonight vs SMC.

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    If Tills can stay healthy he has the NBA game to have a significant role in the NBA. Petro will probably go but needs alot of work, he is successful on this level but against elite athletes he will struggle. Joel, I would love to see him 1 more year in our system. Earlier in the season he was turning heads but has shown lack of consistency the 2nd half of the season. I see Joel going to Europe.
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