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Thread: Waves vs. Zags: Head to Head

  1. #1
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    Default Waves vs. Zags: Head to Head

    First conference home game and it's Pepperdine (7-8). The Waves are on a two game losing streak, including a loss to bottom-of-the-barrel San Jose St. by fifteen. They did give Pacific a run this week at home, losing by just three points. Earlier in the season they nearly beat Arizona, losing by just two points. Head scratcher. They have a few wins against Big Sky teams and the like, but don't have any marquee wins.

    KenPom ranks them at #174 (offense #84, defense #296), some 44 spots overall better than Portland. Here's the tale of the tape:


    source: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...ogs-2020-01-04



    The Zags overshadow the Waves in every category in the above table, including the four factors to winning basketball. Analyzing their numbers, I'm trying find something they do well. A #84 offense isn't too shabby, but their defensive efficiency is pretty bad. Opponent effective FG% is above 50%, and they apparently don't rebound very well. They don't block shots or steal very well either, from the numbers.

    On the other hand, they shoot 40% of their shots from 3, one that the Zags seem to have difficulty defending. They also make their free throws, and do it VERY VERY WELL. Pepperdine's free throw average on the season is 85%!

    Bart Torvik's T-Rank site predicts a 23 point win, 97-74.


    Last edited by caduceus; 01-04-2020 at 02:06 AM. Reason: Forgot to credit source.

  2. #2
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    Interesting observation.... Pepperdine's tempo (possessions per game) and the Zag's tempo are literally identical (72.2/game vs 72.1/game, per KenPom), which means that both teams will be playing in their comfort zone. Should be very intriguing.

  3. #3
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    Zags are favored by 20.5 to 22 points, depending on the book. O/U 162.5

  4. #4
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    caduceus, your head to head threads are always really fun. Thanks for keeping it up!

  5. #5
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    Zags drop to #9 overall on Kenpom (#2 offense, #61 defense) after Pepperdine game.

    Zags were #2 in the nation in turnover %, yet got turned over 17 times, with 6 by Ayayi. Our main ball handler, Woolridge, only played some 29 minutes.

    Road series coming up. They better tighten the ship!

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