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Thread: 1st and 50th - where will we be by the dance?

  1. #1
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    Default 1st and 50th - where will we be by the dance?

    GU is 1st in Kenpom's offensive ranking.

    GU is 50th in Kenpom's defensive ranking.

    Where will be be when the NCAA tournament starts? With a healthy Watson, this team could have elite defenders at 3 positions on the floor.

    I think we'll enter the dance at:

    #1 and #24


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    Beat Portland.
    "Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand."
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    I’d take 24th. We have to improve defensively if we want to cut down the nets in Atlanta. We give up far too many wide open threes. Can’t win 6 games in a row against great competition doing that.
    "There is always some kid who may be seeing me for the first time. I owe him my best."--Joe DiMaggio

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    Defensively, this team will remain challenged. Nothing will drastically fix this. They have some guys who just will never be defensive aces.

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    The only stats that matter are W’s and L’s. The rest - big data or “analytics” are for those who think you can measure everything and predict outcomes. That’s what’s great about college sports. No data set to measure heart, drive or other intangible factors that often win games.

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    Zags now #63 in defensive efficiency, post-Portland game. They remain #1 offensively (and by almost 2 points per 100 possessions better than #2 Michigan St.).

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    With deference to the poster who says wins and losses, not advanced metrics, are all that matter, I must disagree. The coaches realize this as well and grade players and track efficiency metrics. And the stats don’t lie: the Zags can score at will but are porous defensively unless they’re forcing turnovers. This doesn’t bode well for March and I’m not sure it can or will get fixed in time. Just seems like this team will run into an opponent that can match it offensively and slow it down enough to win (see: Michigan). The Zags need to be able to at least make it tough on opponents and time and again we’re seeing them give up season-best performances to opponents. It will bite them.
    “We’re not here as a %&#* courtesy!" - Coach Few

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    - stats mean nothing, but they give us a likely glimpse into the future........

    - I suspect zags with be a top 5 offensive team, quite possibly number 1
    - I hope they improve defensively, you gotta know the coaches and players all know this is their weakness, so I'm holding out hope for improvement, top 25 I think is too high an expectation, would like to see something in the top 30's.

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    Stats mean everything if they are correctly measuring what you want the them measure and those measurements have a strong relationship with what you are interested in, in our case winning NCAA games. Its kinds of ironic folks don't believe in using stats, when according to kenpom "humans tend to overvalue strength of schedule. A team can be good even if it doesn’t play a good schedule"...ie Gonzaga. The fatal flaws of this team are defense and free throws. I don't see how we have a chance at a final four this year with how bad our defense is and missing free throws keeps you from winning close games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladyzag12 View Post
    Stats mean everything if they are correctly measuring what you want the them measure and those measurements have a strong relationship with what you are interested in, in our case winning NCAA games. Its kinds of ironic folks don't believe in using stats, when according to kenpom "humans tend to overvalue strength of schedule. A team can be good even if it doesn’t play a good schedule"...ie Gonzaga. The fatal flaws of this team are defense and free throws. I don't see how we have a chance at a final four this year with how bad our defense is and missing free throws keeps you from winning close games.
    Yeah those stats really meant something when Marquette with Dwyane Wade went to final four with the #2 offense and #109 defense right? Stats mean something sure but just like your IPA, need to be used responsibly
    Qualified for 22 Straight Big Dances

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    10 Sweet Sixteens (5 Straight)

    4 Elite Eights

    2017 FINAL FOUR

    2 Winningest Players in college basketball history (Karnowski 137, Perkins 134)

    The Best Point Guard to ever play the game: John Stockton, most assists, most steals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gonzagafan62 View Post
    Yeah those stats really meant something when Marquette with Dwyane Wade went to final four with the #2 offense and #109 defense right? Stats mean something sure but just like your IPA, need to be used responsibly
    I’m not sure pulling up an extreme outlier from nearly 20 years ago that featured a future NBA Hall of Famer makes the point you think it does. Here's how rare it is for teams with extreme discrepancies in offensive and defensive proficiency to make a deep run. https://www.anonymouseagle.com/2019/...ffense-defense
    “We’re not here as a %&#* courtesy!" - Coach Few

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    Quote Originally Posted by gonzagafan62 View Post
    Yeah those stats really meant something when Marquette with Dwyane Wade went to final four with the #2 offense and #109 defense right? Stats mean something sure but just like your IPA, need to be used responsibly
    See you are pointing to an anomaly, which is by definition statistically unlikely. For every championship going back to 2002 at Ken Pom, no championship team has finished worst than 18th in defense. Over at Torvik only 1 team has won a championship that was outside the top 25 in both offense and defense (2014 UCONN-top 10 in defense). This team isn't going anywhere past the sweet sixteen with how bad our defense has been. In general, championship teams are top 10 in both. That is why last year and 2017 are so tough, because those have been the only championship quality teams in GU history and we did not win.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladyzag12 View Post
    See you are pointing to an anomaly, which is by definition statistically unlikely. For every championship going back to 2002 at Ken Pom, no championship team has finished worst than 18th in defense. Over at Torvik only 1 team has won a championship that was outside the top 25 in both offense and defense (2014 UCONN-top 10 in defense). This team isn't going anywhere past the sweet sixteen with how bad our defense has been. In general, championship teams are top 10 in both. That is why last year and 2017 are so tough, because those have been the only championship quality teams in GU history and we did not win.
    I find it puzzling how people who don’t like to view or discuss statistics cannot simply not discuss them, they must denigrate or recenter the conversation around their personal dislike of them. It’s like a religious/heretical prohibition.

    See post 2&5 above.

    I never see the analogue of this in conversations which are primarily speculative or emotional.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ladyzag12 View Post
    See you are pointing to an anomaly, which is by definition statistically unlikely. For every championship going back to 2002 at Ken Pom, no championship team has finished worst than 18th in defense. Over at Torvik only 1 team has won a championship that was outside the top 25 in both offense and defense (2014 UCONN-top 10 in defense). This team isn't going anywhere past the sweet sixteen with how bad our defense has been. In general, championship teams are top 10 in both. That is why last year and 2017 are so tough, because those have been the only championship quality teams in GU history and we did not win.
    Again I didn’t say the numbers meant nothing. You need to use responsibly. If you have followed he Zags a long time or even just followed last year you’d see the exact same concerns ... last year at this time we were 53rd after the UNC game. We ended 12th. Gonzaga (normally) gets better late Jan - Feb in these numbers and usually pretty significantly. There is a long season to go. I wanna see where this team is ranked come March before I make a decision. The defense hasn’t looked great at all. No lie. But a lot of these teams haven’t and have gotten lots better. Express concern but don’t jump off cliff over it. All I meant
    Qualified for 22 Straight Big Dances

    11 Straight Round of 32s

    10 Sweet Sixteens (5 Straight)

    4 Elite Eights

    2017 FINAL FOUR

    2 Winningest Players in college basketball history (Karnowski 137, Perkins 134)

    The Best Point Guard to ever play the game: John Stockton, most assists, most steals.

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    12 days later

    1st and 50th
    (I revise my earlier prediction - I think we'll be 1st and 40th)


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    "I had lots of funny things to say about statistics."
    -Mark Twain

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    I'm supposing that the defense would be a little better if Admon was getting more minutes, but I'm surprised that the defense has been as bad as it has been, overall. Tille is a really good, versatile defender. Kispert has improved a lot individually in my opinion and knows where to be on the floor within the team defense. Woolridge is obviously very quick and is a good defender. Petrusev has had some time with the team and should know his assignments. Ayayi is quick and rangy.

    Woolridge is fast but a good screen will neutralize some of that (which is why they do it). Petrusev, I think, has to be the weak link, there. Ayayi doesn't utilize his talents nearly as much as he could on the defensive end, and a lot of this is mental, I think. Kispert, despite his improvements, doesn't have fantastic lateral quickness (not surprising, given his size).

    I thought at the beginning of the year that they would have to play very fundamentally sound team defense because they don't have a Karnowski taking up space in the lane and neutralizing his man one-on-one, or a Brandon Clarke to erase mistakes down low. On the perimeter, they don't really have a go-to defensive stopper or a workman-like guy puts on his hard hat and at least makes it a grind for the other team's best player (many Zags could be listed here). This team, especially Tille of late, pulls off some great plays, but it just isn't an every-possession type of impact like some guys we have had in the past, it seems to me. This team needs to do it with scheme and effort, and they have shown glimpses of it. They have already exceeded my expectations in the win column this year, and a few guys have been revelations over all, but it would be a shame for them continue to play 50th-ranked defense all year.

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    Playing good defense this week will help a lot because we're playing better teams.
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    Playing good defense this week will help a lot because we're playing better teams.
    I hope to see the Zags play this week to be what characterizes their play for the rest of the season, precise teamwork and scrappy individual play, and especially on D.
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

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    60 days until Selection Sunday

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    Quote Originally Posted by RenoZag View Post
    60 days until Selection Sunday
    I really think they should make the season longer...maybe play 50+ games...it gets so boring after the FF until Nov

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    I really think they should make the season longer...maybe play 50+ games...it gets so boring after the FF until Nov
    Hopefully, this can pass the time.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxyPeME9TbI

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    We moved up 10 points in defense tonight, from 36 to 26. Still at #1 offense. I've been amazed how much a single game late in the year impacts the Kenpom ratings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    We moved up 10 points in defense tonight, from 36 to 26. Still at #1 offense. I've been amazed how much a single game late in the year impacts the Kenpom ratings.
    Maybe not so surprising when you look at the minimal separation between 15 and 40 in adjusted defense. Pretty closely bunched. One good defensive effort or one bad one looks like it could cause a team to end up anywhere in that group.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    We moved up 10 points in defense tonight, from 36 to 26. Still at #1 offense. I've been amazed how much a single game late in the year impacts the Kenpom ratings.
    It's mainly because there's a bunch of teams clustered by very few points per possession between them. Between #26 and #32, there's only .2 points per 100 possessions (D).

    Fun fact -- the difference in OFFENSIVE efficiency between #1 Gonzaga and #2 Dayton is as big as the DEFENSIVE efficiency gap between #26 Gonzaga and #39 Providence.

    Just shows how incredibly efficient the Zags offense are this year.

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