Head to Head: UNC @ Zags

[caduceus]

Last of the three games in the OOC gauntlet. Fortunately, this game is at home — hopefully good for a point or three. The metrics say the Zags are a pretty heavy favorite, but probabilities are just that — probabilities, and not a crystal ball. Bart Torvik says the Bulldogs are an 11-point favorite. Sagarin says 10 points (including home field advantage bonus). Here's the data:



source: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...ogs-2019-12-18


It does look encouraging for the Zags. UNC are better rebounders (particularly on the offensive glass), but the Zags lead in 3 of the 4 factors to winning basketball, and lead in field goal percentage by a really huge margin. Per KenPom, UNC has had a tough schedule (#62), versus the Zags at #208. They are ranked #36 overall, five slots ahead of BYU and eight slots ahead of St. Mary's. They've had a string of losses, but 3 of their 4 losses have been to #1 Ohio St., #9 Virginia, and #18 Michigan (Pomeroy rankings). They beat #12 Oregon, another common opponent. They play a faster pace game (#91), almost identical to the Zags (#90 - wow, that's unexpected the Zags are playing that quickly).


Here are the (mostly) pace-free efficiency stats:


source: https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...-18/efficiency


From the numbers, it looks like they shoot a lot of twos, and on the other end they really block and deny a lot of twos. Teamrankings says the Zags lead in defensive efficiency, but Pomeroy says the opposite. This could be due to Pomeroy still factoring in last year's data. Torvik says the Zags' defense is better. So I think Pomeroy is the outlier, possibly due to including 2018 data. Anyway, both teams express pretty similar defensive efficiency this year.

I do worry that this could be a trap game. The Zags are flying high with a scary, and I'm sure most would say, unexpected #2 ranking in the polls. North Carolina is desperately in need of a signature win, particularly on the road. And I do think they are better than their record suggests.

I wouldn't be surprised if the score is closer than the analytics predict. I'm sure the Tar Heels will work hard to avoid a 6-5 record!
Surprisingly, a Zag win would be a quadrant III victory. Meh. Gotta hope we win and UNC turns it around for the rest of the season.

[raise the zag]

Per usual, tremendous stuff Cad.

An interesting, in-depth analysis, and examination of metrics/numbers/stats.

Love this kinda stuff.

Would never question your #'s, yet curious about Zags schedule ranking?

Several sites list Gonzaga as having the 10th hardest schedule or "strength of schedule" to date in college hoops, yet they rank 208 overa;l?

Curious how this shakes out, or are they different numbers entirely? Seeking help for the uninformed and mathematical challenged.

[gonzagafan62]

Per usual, tremendous stuff Cad.

An interesting, in-depth analysis, and examination of metrics/numbers/stats.

Love this kinda stuff.

Would never question your #'s, yet curious about Zags schedule ranking?

Several sites list Gonzaga as having the 10th hardest schedule or "strength of schedule" to date in college hoops, yet they rank 208 overa;l?

Curious how this shakes out, or are they different numbers entirely? Seeking help for the uninformed and mathematical challenged.

According to Ken Pom they are #208 overall based on games played. The entire non conference outside of 4 games has been against really REALLY bad teams - and Texas A&M is way worse than we originally thought they’d be too. Good thoughts by schedulers but still not enough unfortunately. Better cupcakes always better than the drek

[Zagdawg]

Carolina Basketball
@UNC_Basketball
·
14h
Wheels down in Spokane, WA ����

[Zagger]

Carolina Basketball
@UNC_Basketball
·
14h
Wheels down in Spokane, WA ����

Game time weather ..... Snow
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/wx...n=7&interval=1

[caduceus]

Vegas odds started at Zags -11. Now -12.

[ZagNative]

I love and look forward to this thread. Thanks, Caduceus!