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Thread: Prediction Results 2019-20

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZagzKrak View Post
    Woohoo...thanks LIZF....the team this year has been really hard to predict.
    I think the players have been reading the Prediction posts and then playing accordingly...everytime I think they are going to be dominant, they keep the game close...l

    (FYI - No I don’t think the team is “fixing” games)

  2. #102
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    Too late of a night last night. Will post results tonight or tomorrow.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Too late of a night last night. Will post results tonight or tomorrow.
    Just judging from Reborn's excellent summary, I don't think anyone anticipated the scale of last night's Rough Rider Massacre.
    'I found it is the small everyday deeds of ordinary folk that keep the darkness at bay… small acts of kindness and love.'
    - Gandalf the Grey

    ________________________________



    Foo Time

  4. #104
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    Think there might be ONE score that comes remotely close.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  5. #105
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    That's the problem with with participating in this thread.... Five minutes into a game like that last night and I'm already deeply discouraged because I know just how far off my predicition will be!

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by CdAZagFan View Post
    That's the problem with with participating in this thread.... Five minutes into a game like that last night and I'm already deeply discouraged because I know just how far off my predicition will be!
    Ha! Ya spoke for most of us

    OT - BTW, I taught middle school / jr high for 29 years. Two of the neatest kids I taught were brother and sister twins. The boy was named Coeur and the girl D’Alene.
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagger View Post
    Ha! Ya spoke for most of us

    OT - BTW, I taught middle school / jr high for 29 years. Two of the neatest kids I taught were brother and sister twins. The boy was named Coeur and the girl D’Alene.
    (Way OT) Interesting name choices for sure. I suppose the boy grew up to become a Plummer and the girl now lives with her daughter Eleanor in Rigby. (sorry...I'm retired and have time on my hands!)
    "Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand."
    —Kurt Vonnegut

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagger View Post
    Ha! Ya spoke for most of us

    OT - BTW, I taught middle school / jr high for 29 years. Two of the neatest kids I taught were brother and sister twins. The boy was named Coeur and the girl D’Alene.
    I loved teaching Middle School...we used the Middle School Concept and it was a joy...miss it dearly...

  9. #109
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    Lets start with the good news... Zags blew out the Broncos 105-54.

    The bad news is.... Remember how I said we hadn't had a 100+ game... well... I jinxed it.

    Average score for the Santa Clara game was... 101.85

    Yeah... ugly. Here is the forensic analysis of this ugliness. We undershot the Zags by 17.55. We overshot the Broncos by 16.4. SO of course the spread is WAY off... undershot the spread by 33.05. Ugly.... but hey... Zags won.

    Here are the means:

    Zags 86.4500
    SCU 70.4000
    Spread 16.0500

    A couple of you kept i respectable.... top three are sub-60

    Winner for this SCU game is the one person that posted triple digits for the zags.... Buenaparzag!!! upan8th got second. Reborn comes in third... by a long stretch... numbers take a big jump after him.

    Not that you really want to see them... but here are the full standings...

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 buenaparkzag 101 65 36 3 11 14 0 42
    2 upan8th 94 60 34 10 6 16 0 48
    3 Reborn 92 60 32 12 6 18 0 54
    4 spike_jr 91 66 25 13 12 25 0 75
    5 TravelinZag 92 68 24 12 14 26 0 78
    6 Zag67 87 63 24 17 9 26 0 78
    7 zaguarxj 87 63 24 17 9 26 0 78
    8 BogoZags 90 67 23 14 13 27 0 81
    9 Kitzbuel 89 68 21 15 14 29 0 87
    10 BigBlahla 88 67 21 16 13 29 0 87
    11 willandi 87 68 19 17 14 31 0 93
    12 Zagger 90 72 18 14 18 32 0 96
    13 rennis 86 68 18 18 14 32 0 96
    14 JPW314159 87 70 17 17 16 33 0 99
    15 Mr. Vulture 85 68 17 19 14 33 0 99
    16 White lightning 88 72 16 16 18 34 0 102
    17 ZagzKrak 83 67 16 21 13 34 0 102
    18 Radbooks 79 63 16 25 9 34 0 102
    19 ProVeeZag 91 76 15 13 22 35 0 105
    20 WenatcheeZag 91 76 15 13 22 35 0 105
    21 Stevet75 81 66 15 23 12 35 0 105
    22 DixieZag 88 74 14 16 20 36 0 108
    23 Bocco 84 70 14 20 16 36 0 108
    24 gueastcoast 80 66 14 24 12 36 0 108
    25 Psychozag 90 77 13 14 23 37 0 111
    26 Stache 85 72 13 19 18 37 0 111
    27 Zaga 83 70 13 21 16 37 0 111
    28 BayAreaZagFan 89 77 12 15 23 38 0 114
    29 ZagsObserver 85 73 12 19 19 38 0 114
    30 Hoopaholic 78 66 12 26 12 38 0 114
    31 All Weather Fan 84 73 11 20 19 39 0 117
    32 CdAZagFan 90 80 10 14 26 40 0 120
    33 Martin Center Mad Man 85 75 10 19 21 40 0 120
    34 YukonJack 81 72 9 23 18 41 0 123
    35 ZenZag 85 77 8 19 23 42 0 126
    36 Zag Lady 84 76 8 20 22 42 0 126
    37 ZagsGoZags 84 76 8 20 22 42 0 126
    38 LongIslandZagFan 88 83 5 16 29 45 0 135
    39 Zags11 81 76 5 23 22 45 0 135
    40 RenoZag 75 70 5 29 16 45 0 135

    If I made any mistakes or missed anyone... give me a holler.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  10. #110
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    Nice call buenaparkzag!

    I don’t see mine... but I was waaaay off.

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Lets start with the good news... Zags blew out the Broncos 105-54.
    Not sure if it changes the figures or just a typo but .... score was 104-54. Not that it likely changes much
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagger View Post
    Not sure if it changes the figures or just a typo but .... score was 104-54. Not that it likely changes much
    It's just a typo. The Zag deltas are correctly calculated based on 104 points.
    "Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand."
    —Kurt Vonnegut

  13. #113
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    definitely fat fingered it. Numbers regretfully for all.. are correct.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  14. #114
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    Zags win 92-69!

    Well after our worst average score of the year, we all Zagged and came up with a respectable average score. Average score was 30.7949 (6th best this year)

    Here is the breakdown...

    We undershot the Zags by 4.54. We overshot the cougars by 3.95. Spread came in short. Under by 8.49.

    Here are the means:
    Zags 87.4615
    BYU 72.9467
    Spread 14.5128

    Winner for this game was Zag67!!! Tantalizingly close to perfection. Nipping at his heals was Zagger. Third by way of tiebreaks was Zagzkrak!

    Honorable mentions for this game (sub-20 scores): BayAreaZagFan, DixieZag, upan8th, Kitzbuel, Mr. Vulture

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User Name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 Zag67 91 67 24 1 2 1 0 7
    2 Zagger 90 67 23 2 2 0 0 8
    3 ZagzKrak 89 71 18 3 2 5 0 15
    4 BayAreaZagFan 88 70 18 4 1 5 0 15
    5 DixieZag 88 70 18 4 1 5 0 15
    6 upan8th 91 64 27 1 5 4 0 16
    7 Kitzbuel 87 67 20 5 2 3 0 17
    8 Mr. Vulture 91 74 17 1 5 6 0 18
    9 spike_jr 92 76 16 0 7 7 0 21
    10 Reborn 89 63 26 3 6 3 0 21
    11 willandi 85 68 17 7 1 6 0 22
    12 All Weather Fan 89 74 15 3 5 8 0 24
    13 White lightning 85 70 15 7 1 8 0 24
    14 LongIslandZagFan 92 78 14 0 9 9 0 27
    15 WenatcheeZag 89 75 14 3 6 9 0 27
    16 caldwellzag 87 73 14 5 4 9 0 27
    17 Hoopaholic 86 72 14 6 3 9 0 27
    18 Dorsai62 84 66 18 8 3 5 0 27
    19 BigBlahla 94 78 16 2 9 7 0 29
    20 Stache 84 64 20 8 5 3 0 29
    21 rennis 92 79 13 0 10 10 0 30
    22 CdAZagFan 100 75 25 8 6 2 0 30
    23 StatZag19 82 69 13 10 0 10 0 30
    24 ProVeeZag 93 79 14 1 10 9 0 31
    25 Bocco 84 72 12 8 3 11 0 33
    26 Radbooks 89 78 11 3 9 12 0 36
    27 JPW314159 88 77 11 4 8 12 0 36
    28 Stevet75 80 69 11 12 0 12 0 36
    29 Martin Center Mad Man 85 76 9 7 7 14 0 42
    30 zagsfanforlife 80 71 9 12 2 14 0 42
    31 TravelinZag 79 66 13 13 3 10 0 42
    32 gueastcoast 80 62 18 12 7 5 0 43
    33 Zaga 92 84 8 0 15 15 0 45
    34 ZagsGoZags 92 84 8 0 15 15 0 45
    35 YukonJack 83 75 8 9 6 15 0 45
    36 buenaparkzag 86 79 7 6 10 16 0 48
    37 GoshZagit 84 78 6 8 9 17 0 51
    38 RenoZag 85 81 4 7 12 19 0 57
    39 MyZags 86 84 2 6 15 21 0 63

    Errors/Omissions please let me know.
    Last edited by LongIslandZagFan; 01-20-2020 at 01:25 PM.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  15. #115
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    I have to admit, LIZF that I don't have a single idea of how you come up with the final score. Previously, I had believed that you added Zag Delta plus Opp delta and came up with a Spread, which I felt was significant in the final score. But still I never understood how you came up with the final score.

    In yesterday's results, I don't see where you added the Zag Delta with the opponent delta to come up with the Spread delta. As I looked at the scores it appeared that sometimes you added the two delta's and sometimes you subtracted. That didn't make sense at all so I thought I'd write and ask you for an explanation of how you come up with the scores. I understand how you come up with the Zags delta and the opponents delta. It's obvious. I don't understand why most of the time you add the two and then other times you subtract them, and I have never understood how you come up with the final score. THANKS
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    I have to admit, LIZF that I don't have a single idea of how you come up with the final score. Previously, I had believed that you added Zag Delta plus Opp delta and came up with a Spread, which I felt was significant in the final score. But still I never understood how you came up with the final score.

    In yesterday's results, I don't see where you added the Zag Delta with the opponent delta to come up with the Spread delta. As I looked at the scores it appeared that sometimes you added the two delta's and sometimes you subtracted. That didn't make sense at all so I thought I'd write and ask you for an explanation of how you come up with the scores. I understand how you come up with the Zags delta and the opponents delta. It's obvious. I don't understand why most of the time you add the two and then other times you subtract them, and I have never understood how you come up with the final score. THANKS
    I think the deltas are what is throwing you

    Here is the best way to explain:

    Zag Delta - The absolute value of the difference between your prediction of the Zag's score. So no matter if you are over or under the score... the difference is the difference.
    Opponent Delta - The absolute value of the difference between your prediction of the Opponent's score.
    Spread Delta - The absolute value of the difference between YOUR predicted spread and the ACTUAL spread.

    Let's take your score from the BYU game:

    Your predicted score was... 89-63

    So your Zag score difference is -3... so its absolute value is 3. That is your Zag Delta
    You BYU score was 63... was -6... it's absolute value is 6. That is your Opponent Delta
    Your predicted spread was 26... actual was 23. Your spread prediction was +3... its absolute value is 3. That is your spread delta.

    Point breakdown based on these deltas is (Zag Delta *2) + (Opp Delta *2) + spread delta.

    So for you it is (3*2) + (6*2) + 3... or 6+12+3 for a score of 21.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  17. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    I think the deltas are what is throwing you

    Here is the best way to explain:

    Zag Delta - The absolute value of the difference between your prediction of the Zag's score. So no matter if you are over or under the score... the difference is the difference.
    Opponent Delta - The absolute value of the difference between your prediction of the Opponent's score.
    Spread Delta - The absolute value of the difference between YOUR predicted spread and the ACTUAL spread.

    Let's take your score from the BYU game:

    Your predicted score was... 89-63

    So your Zag score difference is -3... so its absolute value is 3. That is your Zag Delta
    You BYU score was 63... was -6... it's absolute value is 6. That is your Opponent Delta
    Your predicted spread was 26... actual was 23. Your spread prediction was +3... its absolute value is 3. That is your spread delta.

    Point breakdown based on these deltas is (Zag Delta *2) + (Opp Delta *2) + spread delta.

    So for you it is (3*2) + (6*2) + 3... or 6+12+3 for a score of 21.
    Thanks for the explanation. I appreciate it a lot. I'm curious why you multiply the Zag Delta and the Opponent Delta by 2? It seems that common sense would be to add the Zag Delta + the Opponent Delta + the Spread Delta. I'm just curious. That's my nature. Again thanks for taking the time to explain how you do it, and I DO REALLY APPRECIATE all your work that you have put in to do this for us.

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  18. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    Thanks for the explanation. I appreciate it a lot. I'm curious why you multiply the Zag Delta and the Opponent Delta by 2? It seems that common sense would be to add the Zag Delta + the Opponent Delta + the Spread Delta. I'm just curious. That's my nature. Again thanks for taking the time to explain how you do it, and I DO REALLY APPRECIATE all your work that you have put in to do this for us.

    Go Zags!!!
    To put more onus on getting as close to the final score as possible. Since they count double it puts pressure on the predictor to be as close as possible.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  19. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    To put more onus on getting as close to the final score as possible. Since they count double it puts pressure on the predictor to be as close as possible.
    Thanks again LiZF. That makes a lot of sense. Challenging us is always good.
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  20. #120
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    I think the fairest method would be alphabetically. I would gladly change my userid to aardvark if that happens. This season has been rough. So conflicted in blowout games. Do I continue to support my Zags unconditionally, or do I start cheering for 6 3's in a row for BYU? So far I've resisted this tactic.

  21. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPW314159 View Post
    I think the fairest method would be alphabetically. I would gladly change my userid to aardvark if that happens. This season has been rough. So conflicted in blowout games. Do I continue to support my Zags unconditionally, or do I start cheering for 6 3's in a row for BYU? So far I've resisted this tactic.
    I know what you mean. I started out this season really bad. I got so mad after one of those blow-out games that I broke my crystal ball. I created a new one out of the broken glass, put it back together, and it's doing much, much better since then. hahaha

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

  22. #122
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    Zags beat the Tigers 92-59!

    Well after that 100+ game, we seem to be on track to redeeming ourselves. Another solid outing for us all. Average score for the Pacific game was 33.8529. IMHO anything below 40 is solid... below 30 is great... below 20 is unheard of.

    How did we get to that number? Lets take a look.

    We undershot the Zags by 4.62. We overshot Pacific by 5 exactly. Spread we undershot by 9.62.

    Here are the means:

    Zags 87.3824
    UoP 64.0000
    Spread 23.3824

    Our winner for this game was.... Zagger on tie-breaks (nailed the Zag score which is first tie break)! Congrats Zagger... Tied but in second was Reborn. Third, also on tie breaks, is Zag67!

    HMs for this game (sub 20 scores): BigBlahla, MyZags, Stache

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 Zagger 92 58 34 0 1 1 0 3
    2 Reborn 93 59 34 1 0 1 0 3
    3 Zag67 92 63 29 0 4 4 0 12
    4 BigBlahla 91 62 29 1 3 4 0 12
    5 MyZags 94 64 30 2 5 3 0 17
    6 Stache 89 62 27 3 3 6 0 18
    7 upan8th 90 53 37 2 6 4 0 20
    8 Martin Center Mad Man 89 63 26 3 4 7 0 21
    9 Kitzbuel 89 64 25 3 5 8 0 24
    10 All Weather Fan 88 63 25 4 4 8 0 24
    11 White lightning 84 60 24 8 1 9 0 27
    12 LongIslandZagFan 94 68 26 2 9 7 0 29
    13 ZagsGoZags 95 68 27 3 9 6 0 30
    14 ZagzKrak 98 67 31 6 8 2 0 30
    15 Bocco 85 62 23 7 3 10 0 30
    16 Radbooks 86 64 22 6 5 11 0 33
    17 willandi 98 68 30 6 9 3 0 33
    18 BogoZags 83 61 22 9 2 11 0 33
    19 spike_jr 81 59 22 11 0 11 0 33
    20 JPW314159 83 62 21 9 3 12 0 36
    21 gueastcoast 85 65 20 7 6 13 0 39
    22 DixieZag 84 64 20 8 5 13 0 39
    23 Mr. Vulture 84 64 20 8 5 13 0 39
    24 TravelinZag 79 59 20 13 0 13 0 39
    25 ProVeeZag 86 67 19 6 8 14 0 42
    26 YukonJack 86 68 18 6 9 15 0 45
    27 Zaga 104 70 34 12 11 1 0 47
    28 CdAZagFan 86 70 16 6 11 17 0 51
    29 buenaparkzag 85 69 16 7 10 17 0 51
    30 GonzaGAW 77 62 15 15 3 18 0 54
    31 WenatcheeZag 83 69 14 9 10 19 0 57
    32 BayAreaZagFan 74 60 14 18 1 19 0 57
    33 RenoZag 78 65 13 14 6 20 0 60
    34 Zags11 86 74 12 6 15 21 0 63

    Errors/Omissions please let me know so I can fix the data.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

  23. #123
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    On the away games coming up I’ll feel successful if I can stay in the top half! Zag D is helping my predictions. So is Tillie .... and I know the guys like playing for the students in K2.
    Thanks LIZF!
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

  24. #124
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    Sorry, but board was uber-slow this morning... took ten minutes just to get USF thread up. I will try to have results up Saturday morning. I will also start the data entry for the USF game that morning as well so I can have a fairly quick turnaround.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    When it gets there fine. I just want to thank people like you and Reborn for all of the super work you are doing to let us have a great forum.

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