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Thread: Prediction Results 2019-20

  1. #1
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    Default Prediction Results 2019-20

    OK... that time of year again. Won't be putting a thread up for the exhibition game.

    Best of luck to all... look for the Alabama State thread soon.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Counting Lewis and clark and 2games in WCC tournament I think there are 34 total games.
    I pick 29-5

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    110 to 65 Zags.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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    Quote Originally Posted by zag67 View Post
    Counting Lewis and clark and 2games in WCC tournament I think there are 34 total games.
    I pick 29-5
    L&C doesn't count record-wise. Non-D1
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Thanks LIZF. Sure appreciate all you do during the season.
    Keeping real estate real in the Wenatchee Valley since 1991.

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    Will be doing results tonight.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Can't wait LIZF. Looks like I might be near the top (for a change!). Fingers crossed anyway. Thx again ... you are the "Spreadsheet Savant"!
    "Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand."
    —Kurt Vonnegut

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    Zags win over Alabama State 95-64

    Man, oh man, this one came out closer that I anticipated. The average score was 28.7174

    Collectively, we overshot the Zag by 4.85 and missed the Alabama State score by .0435.... yes... that close. Spread we came in high, being over by 4.89.

    Let us dig deeper here....

    Here are the means:

    Zags 99.4878
    ASU 63.9565
    Spread 35.8913



    Game 1 of the season (114th prediction game) and we come up with an unbreakable tie for first... Winners are CdAZagFan and Mr. Vulture... who basically straddled the score on either side. Second place goes to 77Zag and third goes to Stache... only one left under 10. Sub-20 honorable mentions go to a bunch of folks: DixieZag, ZagsGoZags, MyZags, Zaga, All Weather Fan, spike_jr, GonzagaFan62, Kitzbuel, and ProVeeZag.

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 CdAZagFan 96 65 31 1 1 0 0 4
    1 Mr. Vulture 94 63 31 1 1 0 0 4
    2 77Zag 97 65 32 2 1 1 0 7
    3 Stache 97 63 34 2 1 3 0 9
    5 DixieZag 94 61 33 1 3 2 0 10
    5 ZagsGoZags 96 67 29 1 3 2 0 10
    6 MyZags 98 66 32 3 2 1 0 11
    7 Zaga 91 64 27 4 0 4 0 12
    8 All Weather Fan 97 68 29 2 4 2 0 14
    9 spike_jr 95 59 36 0 5 5 0 15
    10 GonzagaFan62 97 61 36 2 3 5 0 15
    11 Kitzbuel 98 62 36 3 2 5 0 15
    12 ProVeeZag 96 69 27 1 5 4 0 16
    13 Kiddwell 96 58 38 1 6 7 0 21
    14 Stevet75 99 61 38 4 3 7 0 21
    15 Psychozag 101 68 33 6 4 2 0 22
    16 Radbooks 102 68 34 7 4 3 0 25
    17 Bocco 102 69 33 7 5 2 0 26
    18 FlyZag 98 58 40 3 6 9 0 27
    19 zagnut2012 92 70 22 3 6 9 0 27
    20 BigBlahla 101 61 40 6 3 9 0 27
    21 White lightning 102 62 40 7 2 9 0 27
    22 JPW314159 104 64 40 9 0 9 0 27
    23 Zag_Dad 103 68 35 8 4 4 0 28
    24 Reborn 103 69 34 8 5 3 0 29
    25 LongIslandZagFan 102 61 41 7 3 10 0 30
    26 RenoZag 99 73 26 4 9 5 0 31
    27 Zagger 105 65 40 10 1 9 0 31
    28 ZigZagger 105 65 40 10 1 9 0 31
    29 YukonJack 104 62 42 9 2 11 0 33
    30 Zags11 91 54 37 4 10 6 0 34
    31 ZagRecruitWatch 106 65 41 11 1 10 0 34
    32 GonzaGAW 104 61 43 9 3 12 0 36
    33 caldwellzag 107 64 43 12 0 12 0 36
    34 BogoZags 101 57 44 6 7 13 0 39
    35 kdaleb 89 71 18 6 7 13 0 39
    36 WenatcheeZag 107 67 40 12 3 9 0 39
    37 amaronizag 101 56 45 6 8 14 0 42
    38 GrizZag 89 72 17 6 8 14 0 42
    39 Zag67 103 58 45 8 6 14 0 42
    40 GonzagasaurausFlex 103 77 26 8 13 5 0 47
    41 gueastcoast 85 51 34 10 13 3 0 49
    42 NotoriousZ 111 62 49 16 2 18 0 54
    43 ZagzKrak 112 67 45 17 3 14 0 54
    44 BayAreaZagFan 110 60 50 15 4 19 0 57
    45 willandi 110 55 55 15 9 24 0 72





    As always any omissions, errors, etc... send me a note so I can fix the underlying data.
    Last edited by LongIslandZagFan; 11-07-2019 at 05:25 AM.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Bottom of the pack. Leggo!


    Thanks Liz!
    Love the zags for life

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    Wow... my first ever first place finish. Glad to get that out of the way. Now that I've finished in the top 10 once this year, I'm ahead of every previous year - pressure's off.

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    For Review could you give us the formula for calculating the score? Thanks
    To Fish & Game: Keep streams stocked well for Mr. Few!

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    Quote Originally Posted by GrizZAG View Post
    For Review could you give us the formula for calculating the score? Thanks

    Sure, this is the current formula:

    Zag Score differential multiplied by 2 + Opponent Differential multiplied by 2 + Spread differential + 10 points if wrong winner of the game is chosen.


    This methodology focuses on the precision of the score.

    A suggested variation was to reward precision on spread... which would be Zag delta + Opp delta + spread delta * 2 + 10 if wrong winner.


    It is early in the season, so if we want to tweak the formulas.... I am open to it.

    Just an FYI, driving up to Binghamton and back tomorrow to see my son, so I won't be posting Pine Bluff results until Sunday.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Quote Originally Posted by CdAZagFan View Post
    Wow... my first ever first place finish. Glad to get that out of the way. Now that I've finished in the top 10 once this year, I'm ahead of every previous year - pressure's off.
    If I get lucky I get about 1 top 10 per season... I'm a solid middle of the pack guy.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Excellent, thank you. Just curious why the Zag and opponent differentials are multiplied by 2? Is that just to spread the field out more?
    To Fish & Game: Keep streams stocked well for Mr. Few!

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    Well, I nailed that one! I think, despite some poor showings previously, this is my very first inverse first place!
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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    Quote Originally Posted by GrizZAG View Post
    Excellent, thank you. Just curious why the Zag and opponent differentials are multiplied by 2? Is that just to spread the field out more?
    The logic is that the scoring is looking for precision on the actual score. In that sense, both Zag and Opponent scores carry equal weight and both can damage your score equally. The spread we take into account because there should be some little bit of bonus for getting at least the spread right.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Zags win by an even 50... 110 - 60

    Welll after a fairly good showing game 1... well.... not so much this time. The average score overall was 57.2045. Pretty much doubling the prior game. I think many of us got in a defensive group think on this.

    Collectively, we were off on the Zags by 16.0919.... that hurt us. On a positive note... we nailed the APB score... off by 0.4318. Spread we came up very short as well... off by 16 and change.

    Here are the means:

    Zags 93.9091
    APB 60.4318
    Spread 33.4773

    Our winner for this week was toying with perfection. upan8th for the WIN, missing both scores by 1 and the spread by 2. Second was YukonJack... third was 77Zag. Sorry... no honorable mentions this time around... outside the top 3 we were all 30+ on the scores.

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 upan8th 109 61 48 1 1 2 0 6
    2 YukonJack 103 59 44 7 1 6 0 22
    3 77Zag 102 59 43 8 1 7 0 25
    4 GonzagaFan62 102 63 39 8 3 11 0 33
    5 Zag67 101 63 38 9 3 12 0 36
    6 RenoZag 97 61 36 13 1 14 0 42
    7 NotoriousZ 97 55 42 13 5 8 0 44
    8 Zag_Dad 99 64 35 11 4 15 0 45
    9 willandi 95 60 35 15 0 15 0 45
    10 Psychozag 94 59 35 16 1 15 0 49
    11 GonzaGAW 95 55 40 15 5 10 0 50
    12 buenaparkzag 102 69 33 8 9 17 0 51
    13 Mantua 101 68 33 9 8 17 0 51
    14 BigBlahla 97 64 33 13 4 17 0 51
    15 spike_jr 93 59 34 17 1 16 0 52
    16 MyZags 98 66 32 12 6 18 0 54
    17 Reborn 94 54 40 16 6 10 0 54
    18 All Weather Fan 93 57 36 17 3 14 0 54
    19 Bocco 94 53 41 16 7 9 0 55
    20 WenatcheeZag 91 60 31 19 0 19 0 57
    21 GrizZag 92 55 37 18 5 13 0 59
    22 BayAreaZagFan 92 62 30 18 2 20 0 60
    23 JPW314159 91 57 34 19 3 16 0 60
    24 White lightning 90 60 30 20 0 20 0 60
    25 FlyZag 90 58 32 20 2 18 0 62
    26 Martin Center Mad Man 89 60 29 21 0 21 0 63
    27 rennis 90 55 35 20 5 15 0 65
    28 Kitzbuel 98 70 28 12 10 22 0 66
    29 Zaga 98 70 28 12 10 22 0 66
    30 Zags11 96 68 28 14 8 22 0 66
    31 amaronizag 94 66 28 16 6 22 0 66
    32 Mr. Vulture 93 65 28 17 5 22 0 66
    33 DixieZag 90 54 36 20 6 14 0 66
    34 Irish_eliZAG 89 55 34 21 5 16 0 68
    35 CdAZagFan 88 58 30 22 2 20 0 68
    36 Stevet75 89 54 35 21 6 15 0 69
    37 ProVeeZag 88 57 31 22 3 19 0 69
    38 ZagzKrak 87 59 28 23 1 22 0 70
    39 Radbooks 91 65 26 19 5 24 0 72
    40 Kiddwell 93 68 25 17 8 25 0 75
    41 HenneZag 86 62 24 24 2 26 0 78
    42 ZagsGoZags 91 68 23 19 8 27 0 81
    43 gueastcoast 85 52 33 25 8 17 0 83
    44 LongIslandZagFan 85 52 33 25 8 17 0 83

    As always... errors... omissions... etc. Please PM me.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    I'm getting the dust off of my crystal ball and seem to see a little clearer. I'm up from 24 last game to 17 this one; good to see the improvemet.

    Congrats to all the winners. Some of you guys must have bought new crystal balls. They're working really well. Keep it up.

    Go Zags!!!
    Go Zags!!! The Best Is Yet To Come!!!

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    Ala St & Pine Bluff ranked #s 320 and 330 respectively. Zags at #8. I'm far from a math wizard, but it didn't take one to measure the massive disparities in ability. Also, APB lacked any kind of inside game, plus, Fewie had that disgruntled, put-upon look after the first game. That never bodes well for the next opponent. Toasting LIZF with a flagon of Alpine Brewery Pure Hoppiness for sponsoring the contest again this season!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reborn View Post
    I'm getting the dust off of my crystal ball and seem to see a little clearer. I'm up from 24 last game to 17 this one; good to see the improvemet.

    Congrats to all the winners. Some of you guys must have bought new crystal balls. They're working really well. Keep it up.

    Go Zags!!!
    I get my crystal balls at The Dollar Store...proves the adage "you get what you pay for" !!
    "Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand."
    —Kurt Vonnegut

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    Quote Originally Posted by ProVeeZag View Post
    I get my crystal balls at The Dollar Store...proves the adage "you get what you pay for" !!
    I guess mine is from the less than dollar store... dead last.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Sure, this is the current formula:

    Zag Score differential multiplied by 2 + Opponent Differential multiplied by 2 + Spread differential + 10 points if wrong winner of the game is chosen.


    This methodology focuses on the precision of the score.

    A suggested variation was to reward precision on spread... which would be Zag delta + Opp delta + spread delta * 2 + 10 if wrong winner.


    It is early in the season, so if we want to tweak the formulas.... I am open to it.

    Just an FYI, driving up to Binghamton and back tomorrow to see my son, so I won't be posting Pine Bluff results until Sunday.
    Thanks for doing all this stuff LI. If we’re voting I would go with the variation that rewards the spread being closer (just seems like if your close on the spread you have a better feel for just how much the Zags are going to demolish the opposition). But I’m fine either way
    It's peanut butter jelly time!

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    Zags win!!! 97-66

    Ahhhh yes.... nice work ladies and gents... nice work. We were darn close to nailing this score collectively. We shorted the Zag score by 0.2308 and shorted the spread by 1.1538... That put us 0.9231 on the spread. Very impressive. For perspective... this games worst score was better than the last games average.

    Here are the means:
    Zags 96.7692
    ND 64.8462
    Spread 39.9231

    Our winner for this game: FlyZag!!! A mere missed FT away from perfection. Second goes to PyschoZag and third to Zagger.

    Super HM (below 10): Zaga, MyZags, BigBlahla, GonzaGAW
    Regular HM (below 20): All Weather Fan, Bocco, caldwellzag, GonzagaFan62, 77Zag, DixieZag, Stevet75, Mr. Vulture, Zag_Dad, Stache, Kitzbuel, LongIslandZagFan

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 FlyZag 96 66 30 1 0 1 0 3
    2 Psychozag 97 68 29 0 2 2 0 6
    3 Zagger 95 65 30 2 1 1 0 7
    4 Zaga 99 68 31 2 2 0 0 8
    5 MyZags 99 68 31 2 2 0 0 8
    6 BigBlahla 99 65 34 2 1 3 0 9
    7 GonzaGAW 100 66 34 3 0 3 0 9
    8 All Weather Fan 96 63 33 1 3 2 0 10
    9 Bocco 96 69 27 1 3 4 0 12
    10 caldwellzag 101 67 34 4 1 3 0 13
    11 GonzagaFan62 101 67 34 4 1 3 0 13
    12 77Zag 101 68 33 4 2 2 0 14
    13 DixieZag 98 62 36 1 4 5 0 15
    14 Stevet75 99 63 36 2 3 5 0 15
    15 Mr. Vulture 94 62 32 3 4 1 0 15
    16 Zag_Dad 101 70 31 4 4 0 0 16
    17 Stache 95 61 34 2 5 3 0 17
    18 Kitzbuel 97 72 25 0 6 6 0 18
    19 LongIslandZagFan 103 66 37 6 0 6 0 18
    20 Martin Center Mad Man 92 61 31 5 5 0 0 20
    21 Radbooks 103 68 35 6 2 4 0 20
    22 WenatcheeZag 104 67 37 7 1 6 0 22
    23 JPW314159 92 60 32 5 6 1 0 23
    24 Zagricultural 94 71 23 3 5 8 0 24
    25 Reborn 96 58 38 1 8 7 0 25
    26 ZagsGoZags 105 67 38 8 1 7 0 25
    27 willandi 100 60 40 3 6 9 0 27
    28 amaronizag 102 62 40 5 4 9 0 27
    29 Zag67 103 63 40 6 3 9 0 27
    30 CdAZagFan 90 68 22 7 2 9 0 27
    31 GrizZag 98 75 23 1 9 8 0 28
    32 upan8th 89 60 29 8 6 2 0 30
    33 Zags11 105 63 42 8 3 11 0 33
    34 gueastcoast 88 60 28 9 6 3 0 33
    35 NotoriousZ 89 57 32 8 9 1 0 35
    36 White lightning 86 62 24 11 4 7 0 37
    37 BayAreaZagFan 107 63 44 10 3 13 0 39
    38 ZagzKrak 83 65 18 14 1 13 0 43
    39 Irish_eliZAG 81 63 18 16 3 13 0 51

    If my powers of observation or my ability to type has struck your score... Please PM me so I can fix the data.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Quote Originally Posted by NotoriousZ View Post
    Thanks for doing all this stuff LI. If we’re voting I would go with the variation that rewards the spread being closer (just seems like if your close on the spread you have a better feel for just how much the Zags are going to demolish the opposition). But I’m fine either way
    Labor of love. No worries. I am thinking about revamping the database somewhat to allow me to flip scoring methods easier. If I can figure a way to do it, I may start offer a second thread with results based on another methodology. But alas, it will require time... which as of late has been a touch fleeting. I would still only have one prediction thread in that scenario.
    "And Morrison? He did what All-Americans do. He shot daggers in the daylight and stole a win." - Steve Kelley (Seattle Times)

    "Gonzaga is a special place, with special people!" - Dan Dickau #21

    Foo me once shame on you, Foo me twice shame on me.

    2012 Foostrodamus - Foothsayer of Death

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    Quote Originally Posted by LongIslandZagFan View Post
    Zags win!!! 97-66

    Ahhhh yes.... nice work ladies and gents... nice work. We were darn close to nailing this score collectively. We shorted the Zag score by 0.2308 and shorted the spread by 1.1538... That put us 0.9231 on the spread. Very impressive. For perspective... this games worst score was better than the last games average.

    Here are the means:
    Zags 96.7692
    ND 64.8462
    Spread 39.9231

    Our winner for this game: FlyZag!!! A mere missed FT away from perfection. Second goes to PyschoZag and third to Zagger.

    Super HM (below 10): Zaga, MyZags, BigBlahla, GonzaGAW
    Regular HM (below 20): All Weather Fan, Bocco, caldwellzag, GonzagaFan62, 77Zag, DixieZag, Stevet75, Mr. Vulture, Zag_Dad, Stache, Kitzbuel, LongIslandZagFan

    Here are the full standings:

    Rank User name Zag Score Opp Score Spread Zag Delta Opp Delta Spread Delta Wrong Winner Score
    1 FlyZag 96 66 30 1 0 1 0 3
    2 Psychozag 97 68 29 0 2 2 0 6
    3 Zagger 95 65 30 2 1 1 0 7
    4 Zaga 99 68 31 2 2 0 0 8
    5 MyZags 99 68 31 2 2 0 0 8
    6 BigBlahla 99 65 34 2 1 3 0 9
    7 GonzaGAW 100 66 34 3 0 3 0 9
    8 All Weather Fan 96 63 33 1 3 2 0 10
    9 Bocco 96 69 27 1 3 4 0 12
    10 caldwellzag 101 67 34 4 1 3 0 13
    11 GonzagaFan62 101 67 34 4 1 3 0 13
    12 77Zag 101 68 33 4 2 2 0 14
    13 DixieZag 98 62 36 1 4 5 0 15
    14 Stevet75 99 63 36 2 3 5 0 15
    15 Mr. Vulture 94 62 32 3 4 1 0 15
    16 Zag_Dad 101 70 31 4 4 0 0 16
    17 Stache 95 61 34 2 5 3 0 17
    18 Kitzbuel 97 72 25 0 6 6 0 18
    19 LongIslandZagFan 103 66 37 6 0 6 0 18
    20 Martin Center Mad Man 92 61 31 5 5 0 0 20
    21 Radbooks 103 68 35 6 2 4 0 20
    22 WenatcheeZag 104 67 37 7 1 6 0 22
    23 JPW314159 92 60 32 5 6 1 0 23
    24 Zagricultural 94 71 23 3 5 8 0 24
    25 Reborn 96 58 38 1 8 7 0 25
    26 ZagsGoZags 105 67 38 8 1 7 0 25
    27 willandi 100 60 40 3 6 9 0 27
    28 amaronizag 102 62 40 5 4 9 0 27
    29 Zag67 103 63 40 6 3 9 0 27
    30 CdAZagFan 90 68 22 7 2 9 0 27
    31 GrizZag 98 75 23 1 9 8 0 28
    32 upan8th 89 60 29 8 6 2 0 30
    33 Zags11 105 63 42 8 3 11 0 33
    34 gueastcoast 88 60 28 9 6 3 0 33
    35 NotoriousZ 89 57 32 8 9 1 0 35
    36 White lightning 86 62 24 11 4 7 0 37
    37 BayAreaZagFan 107 63 44 10 3 13 0 39
    38 ZagzKrak 83 65 18 14 1 13 0 43
    39 Irish_eliZAG 81 63 18 16 3 13 0 51

    If my powers of observation or my ability to type has struck your score... Please PM me so I can fix the data.

    I had 94 to 64. Not 105 to 68
    Love the zags for life

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