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Thread: Three Point Shooting in 2019-20

  1. #1
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    Default Three Point Shooting in 2019-20

    In an attempt to set out something about actual GU basketball for the board to chew on …

    It seems to me, that one of the biggest questions this team faces - other than youth - is whether we will be able to hit 3s at a rate that frees up space down low.

    Gilder, great player but not known as a 3 point ace.

    Tillie IS a 3 point ace, but also maybe best used low

    Kispert is "reliable" but not used as a 3 pt threat to this point.

    Ravet? Can shoot, but will he adjust to D-1 defenses?

    Will teams pack us in?
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
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    Tillie Tillie Tillie
    There will be a few others better used low - not that Tillie won't. Killian, IMHO, will have a green light to hit from deep 3. He's really going to open up the court - space out the defense. Killian's not a bad ball handler and may often bring the Zags up court (he did a few times this past season). It will be interesting to see who else hits 3s at a good clip for GU. I have no doubt that Killian will be Mr 3 for the Zags this season though.
    http://www.fowlplaces.com/zags/GoZagsTinySignGuyGlassesColor.png

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    Corey will score much more this year, he deferred to his teammates last year.

    Last week, I watched the Creighton game one last time before erasing it on my DVR. I had forgotten that Corey drained three bombs in the second half. Teams will not be able to single out Killian on defense this year.

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    Anyone have Kisperts % for the last two years? I would guess mid to high 30s.

    If Ravet adjusts and plays, he should be able to be in that same percentage as Corey. Those two plus Tillie I think will be enough to hold teams back from packing the middle. The thing I like about both Ravet and Kispert is they dont camp out and wait, they move. Not quite like Morrison used to always be in motion, but they dont just find the corner and wait for the set shot.

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    Gilder is a career (3 season) 37.4% 3pt shooter. He takes 5.4 shots per/40 mins

    That percentage is better than Corey Kispert or Zach Norvell, and 1% lower than Perkins. Gilder's stats come on a pretty high sample size (3 seasons in the SEC, taking 3s at the same rate Perkins did in his whole WCC career).


    I do think Woolridge (33%, 1.9 attempts per 40min) is likely to be the worst 3pt shooting PG or SG to play major minutes in recent years. I'm not sure when we last had a player at the "1" or the "2" shooting/making that few 3s. Hopefully Tillie, Petrusev, and Timme form the best 3pt shooting "bigs" rotation we've had any time lately. (or ever)



    I think our worst 3pt lineups will be any time Woolridge shares the court with Ballo or Zakharov or possibly Watson, though I'm curious to see what Timme or Watson look like behind the 3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hooter73 View Post
    Anyone have Kisperts % for the last two years? I would guess mid to high 30s.
    36.5% from 3

    6.7 attempts per 40 mins


    If Corey could develop as a more effective scorer off the dribble (maybe an Ayayi-style midrange floating off penetration?) I bet he'd see his 3pt % go up a fair amount.

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    Be careful of ascribing too many points to Corey. There is a curmudgeon that does not take kindly to speculation, other than his own, and he is very careful to not actually speculate. Just chastise those that do.
    Hoping you have a sense of humor too!

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    Corey's 3pt percentage would go up if he would stick to catch & shoot 3s. My eyetest says he is not good at shooting after dribbling around the arc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Be careful of ascribing too many points to Corey. There is a curmudgeon that does not take kindly to speculation, other than his own, and he is very careful to not actually speculate. Just chastise those that do.
    LOL, it must be a beautiful day in Del Mar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Be careful of ascribing too many points to Corey. There is a curmudgeon that does not take kindly to speculation, other than his own, and he is very careful to not actually speculate. Just chastise those that do.
    speaking of cautionary tales on the forum--

    there are some posters you need to be incredibly careful disagreeing with. if you try to engage them in anything resembling thoughtful, facts/numbers based discussion, they'll feel personally attacked and turn on the high school drama--

    here are the stages:
    --first, they try to pick a fight
    --then they leave in a huff
    --then they give you the silent treatment for a few months
    --then they return with some sort of unprovoked, off-topic, passive-aggressive ad hominem quip that fundamentally mischaracterizes the initial issue.

    will with textbook form (i could link to specific posts)!

    mods: i know this won't last... but at least remove em both, will ya?

    ----------------------------

    eta: i don't want to bump or continue this any further-- but i DO want to be clear-- i intended/expected this entire useless, off-topic detour to be deleted by now. the goal of this post was to put it in the ground. specifically, i tried to respond to will in a way that discourages him from continuing to bring this up in random threads in the future (hoping we can just move on, thought we had), and increase the chance that mods just delete the entire exchange. so, yeah, it's a little over-the-top and petty-- and this was intentional/purposeful, but expected to be short-lived. but now people have replied, quoted, etc... sigh.

    although i stand by my description above, i never would have dropped this *crap* in the middle of an otherwise fine thread if i thought it was going to remain and/or become a topic of further conversation.
    Last edited by soccerdud; 09-11-2019 at 12:03 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by soccerdud View Post
    speaking of cautionary tales on the forum--

    there are some posters you need to be incredibly careful disagreeing with. if you try to engage them in anything resembling thoughtful, facts/numbers based discussion, they'll feel personally attacked and turn on the high school drama-

    here are the stages:
    --first, they try to pick a fight
    --then they leave in a huff
    --then they give you the silent treatment for a few months
    --then they'll return with some sort of unprovoked, passive-aggressive ad hominem quip that fundamentally mischaracterizes the initial issue.

    will with perfect form (i could link to specific posts)!

    mods: i know this won't last... but at least remove em both, will ya?
    Mods do just fine as it is, without any assistance from hall monitors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by soccerdud View Post
    speaking of cautionary tales on the forum--

    there are some posters you need to be incredibly careful disagreeing with. if you try to engage them in anything resembling thoughtful, facts/numbers based discussion, they'll feel personally attacked and turn on the high school drama-

    here are the stages:
    --first, they try to pick a fight
    --then they leave in a huff
    --then they give you the silent treatment for a few months
    --then they'll return with some sort of unprovoked, passive-aggressive ad hominem quip that fundamentally mischaracterizes the initial issue.

    will with perfect form (i could link to specific posts)!

    mods: i know this won't last... but at least remove em both, will ya?
    Geez, let's let one thread stick to basketball and see what happens.

    I guess I am used to hearing numbers closer to 40% (I believe Tillie exceeds that rate), and thus I fear a bit more for this team with no "specialist" beyond the arc.

    Of course, Nigel - the best pg in GU history, or at least best "year" at PG in GU history - did not rely on the 3 as his first weapon.

    Perhaps with the influx of a wave of "bigs" we can let Tillie float and do what he wants. He is the one who will make this team go IMO. An NBA player when healthy.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DixieZag View Post
    Geez, let's let one thread stick to basketball and see what happens.

    Imagine that. . .

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Gilder is a career (3 season) 37.4% 3pt shooter. He takes 5.4 shots per/40 mins

    That percentage is better than Corey Kispert or Zach Norvell, and 1% lower than Perkins. Gilder's stats come on a pretty high sample size (3 seasons in the SEC, taking 3s at the same rate Perkins did in his whole WCC career).


    I do think Woolridge (33%, 1.9 attempts per 40min) is likely to be the worst 3pt shooting PG or SG to play major minutes in recent years. I'm not sure when we last had a player at the "1" or the "2" shooting/making that few 3s. Hopefully Tillie, Petrusev, and Timme form the best 3pt shooting "bigs" rotation we've had any time lately. (or ever)



    I think our worst 3pt lineups will be any time Woolridge shares the court with Ballo or Zakharov or possibly Watson, though I'm curious to see what Timme or Watson look like behind the 3.
    Thx for providing the numbers, makes it easier to assess.

    I had no idea where to even look.

    Thx, this is good to chew on.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    Ball movement and confidence. And sure D Foundation

    This team may not have as many Top 10 Sport Center highlights as last year’s team. I can see them be sneakingly as exciting though.

    I really like the potential toughness of this group.
    Think Big. No think Bigger than that!

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    Quote Originally Posted by RenoZag View Post
    Imagine that. . .
    lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by DixieZag View Post
    Thx for providing the numbers, makes it easier to assess.

    I had no idea where to even look.

    Thx, this is good to chew on.
    Thanks for starting the thread, Dixiezag! You are consistently one of my favorite and most consistently positive folks here.

    I use sports-reference.com for stats. Very good site and easy to navigate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by willandi View Post
    Be careful of ascribing too many points to Corey. There is a curmudgeon that does not take kindly to speculation, other than his own, and he is very careful to not actually speculate. Just chastise those that do.
    Kispert would have a higher percentage, if he were a better shooter. Like that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasZagFan View Post
    LOL, it must be a beautiful day in Del Mar.

    Spectacular. All the vacationing Texans and Zonies are gone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Kispert would have a higher percentage, if he were a better shooter. Like that?
    And he will be a better shooter the more experienced he gets in shot selection in the offense. IIRC he did have a habit of shooting while moving laterally.

    It is probably a good idea to remember that guys who stick around 3-4 years tend to evolve and get better.

    Last, shooting 3s has a lot to do with the strength in legs and elbows, muscle memory, which gets easier as men's bodies start to mature at 20+ years of age.

    I bet he does shoot better this year, and he's not a "bad" shooter.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
    Mark Twain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzdelmar View Post
    Kispert would have a higher percentage, if he were a better shooter. Like that?

    That's why you pull down the biggest royalties on this site, Jazz!


    This post is for March Madness seeding purposes only.

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    We all like Killian and think he is just a superb basketball player and regret his injuries, which seem to start before our game with FSU, where they beat us soundly.

    If memory serves, I think Killian had a super WCC tournament shooting 3's but before that tournament, I think he was shooting somewhere around 37-39% and his percentage went up because of his spectacular shooting display...I'm sure if my memory is in error, someone out there will set me straight but that's my take...

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    I think this team will be adequate shooting the 3, though probably not great. We know Tillie's a great shooter. IMO Kispert, as the 5th option last year, didn't get enough attempts to consistently get into a comfortable rhythm. He was once called the "best shooter on the (AAU?) circuit as a recruit. Remains to be seen, but I'm optimistic that he can shoot 40% with enough reps.

    Ravet might not shoot an elite %, but his range is gonna stretch defenses. I don't know Watson's hs %, but he has nice form and made a clutch game winner at state his jr year. Gilder's numbers are solid in a P5 league. According to draft express, Ayayi shot 6/13 on 3's in the U19's.

    GU's best teams recently have played inside out and not depended heavily on the 3. The important thing imo is that there isn't a Meech type who other teams can sag off and dare to shoot, clogging the post area. Even a 33% shooter like Woolridge needs to be honored by the defense, as he's probably better than that if left wide open.

    It probably won't be a great 3 pt team, but I'm guessing it will be good enough to allow for an efficient inside game and overall offensive success.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bogozags View Post
    We all like Killian and think he is just a superb basketball player and regret his injuries, which seem to start before our game with FSU, where they beat us soundly.

    If memory serves, I think Killian had a super WCC tournament shooting 3's but before that tournament, I think he was shooting somewhere around 37-39% and his percentage went up because of his spectacular shooting display...I'm sure if my memory is in error, someone out there will set me straight but that's my take...
    Prior to the WCC tournament that year he was a 42.1% 3pt shooter and leading the team in that stat (32for76).

    People recall how good he was (13for14) in the WCC tournament (I remember Vitale bringing it up it either in the NCAA tournament that year, or in a game from this past year, or both) but he really got hot with 6 games in the regular season remaining. Those last 6 (including 4 away games) he shot 11for19.

    So his last 6 regular season games + his 3 WCC tourney games saw Killian go 24 for 33 (72.7%) which is insane, and only included 2 games in Spokane.

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    As if. Is this were YouTube I’d be a rich man. Afford that ocean front view.


    [[/I]
    Quote Originally Posted by sittingon50 View Post
    That's why you pull down the biggest royalties on this site, Jazz!



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