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Thread: David Jenkins is a phenomenal shooter; dropped 35 on Memphis

  1. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    He didn't do it 8 times, he did it 3 times.

    He also had 5 games with 0 or 1 made 3pt shot.

    His team's strength of schedule last year was atrocious, even by the standards of South Dakota State. Kenpom called is the 287th in the country. That's on par with Houston Baptist, Hawaii, and Texas A&M Corpus Christi.

    Jenkins is a good three point shooter to be sure, but the prior year at South Dakota State he shot 38%, which was when their strength of schedule was 113.

    I'm not sure one can look his stats and say he's a clearly better 3pt shooter than Perkins, Norvell, or Kispert, for example. He's shorter than all 3 of those guys and playing against vastly worse defenses. If Perks, Kispert, or Norvell had been playing on the perimeter at South Dakota State U this year, especially with Daum garnering most of the attention of the other team's best defenders, it wouldn't surprise me if any of those three could have shot 7-8% better from behind the arc.
    I’m confused by your post, one does not have to “speculate”, the stats are actually there, I posted them in my OP. Statistically he is a better three-point shooter those guys, he’s not “good“, he’s great, it’s not subjective. He was 30th in the nation last season. I have never heard of the theory of someone becoming a better shooter because of defenses keying on a different player, I mean you either make the shot or you don’t. But I guess the theory is possible. The only concern I have is thatHe is pretty short for a shooting guard, but I am not expecting much for this season anyway.

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    I think the point is that the level of competition effects shooting percentages.

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    Arguments can be made both ways. The Zags will likely have many more weapons than the Jackrabbits. If he shot well with only one guy for the defense to key on, he could be open a lot more here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hogan View Post
    I think the point is that the level of competition effects shooting percentages.
    Which I think is absurd. The three point shot distance is not closer in a weaker conference and the hoop is not wider, you either make the shot or you don’t. Stephen Curry played on a team that was in a sub par conference too. You are either a great three-point shooter or you’re not, regardless of your conference. I mean people use the “conference” argument against us all the time

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Which I think is absurd. The three point shot distance is not closer in a weaker conference and the hoop is not wider, you either make the shot or you don’t. Stephen Curry played on a team that was in a sub par conference too. You are either a great three-point shooter or you’re not, regardless of your conference. I mean people use the “conference” argument against us all the time
    So do you think that we would have ran the same offensive numbers playing in the P5 conference?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Which I think is absurd. The three point shot distance is not closer in a weaker conference and the hoop is not wider, you either make the shot or you don’t. Stephen Curry played on a team that was in a sub par conference too. You are either a great three-point shooter or you’re not, regardless of your conference. I mean people use the “conference” argument against us all the time
    Better conference= better defenders

    ... but I get your point. How many open shots did the Zags miss against Texas Tech? Enough to make the difference in that game, is my answer. The Zags’ offense will create plenty of open shots. I’m a little more concerned about his defense (based on heresay; I haven’t seen him play, or at least didn’t pay attention when I watched his games)

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    I’m confused by your post, one does not have to “speculate”, the stats are actually there, I posted them in my OP. Statistically he is a better three-point shooter those guys, he’s not “good“, he’s great, it’s not subjective. He was 30th in the nation last season. I have never heard of the theory of someone becoming a better shooter because of defenses keying on a different player, I mean you either make the shot or you don’t. But I guess the theory is possible. The only concern I have is thatHe is pretty short for a shooting guard, but I am not expecting much for this season anyway.
    Are you really arguing the point that it's "objective" rather than "subjective" to call a player with Jenkins' stats "great" rather than "good"?

    Not only did Jenkins team play a terrible schedule, their opponents were especially bad at defense. Here's their opponents' kenpom from this year. That little number circled in yellow is Jenkins' team's opponents defensive ranking. 324/351 means 90% of college teams and players had tougher defensive opponents.



    Which is most likely from playing against a terrible (bottom decile) bunch of defenders:

    A: No effect on 3pt%
    B: An effect that increases 3pt%
    C: An effect that decreases 3pt%


    If you think that an argument of if someone if "good" vs "great" is objective rather than subjective, here's some relevant info.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IowaSERE View Post
    So do you think that we would have ran the same offensive numbers playing in the P5 conference?
    Not sure, maybe. But I don't think the analogies are equivalent. A 3 point shot, is a 3 point shot, regardless of what conference you play in. He's # 30 in the entire nation, pretty sure every single opposing coach made an emphasis of making sure to guard the dude that shoots 46% from 3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Are you really arguing the point that it's "objective" rather than "subjective" to call a player with Jenkins' stats "great" rather than "good"?

    Not only did Jenkins team play a terrible schedule, their opponents were especially bad at defense. Here's their opponents' kenpom from this year. That little number circled in yellow is Jenkins' team's opponents defensive ranking. 324/351 means 90% of college teams and players had tougher defensive opponents.



    Which is most likely from playing against a terrible (bottom decile) bunch of defenders:

    A: No effect on 3pt%
    B: An effect that increases 3pt%
    C: An effect that decreases 3pt%


    If you think that an argument of if someone if "good" vs "great" is objective rather than subjective, here's some relevant info.
    You are arguing that correlation equals causation. I just disagree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Not sure, maybe. But I don't think the analogies are equivalent. A 3 point shot, is a 3 point shot, regardless of what conference you play in. He's # 30 in the entire nation, pretty sure every single opposing coach made an emphasis of making sure to guard the dude that shoots 46% from 3.
    A 3pt shot is the same as any other 3pt shot only in a 3pt contest.
    Not in a game.
    Defense is that thing which 5 of the 10 guys one the floor are always doing. Some do it a lot better than others. It effects the offense. That's kind of the point.

    The second part of your post is also based on the idea that he would have been game-planned as though his 2019 stats were already known to opposing teams and coaches to start the year that and 2018 never happened. He shot 38.2% his first year ('18), and 45.2% his second year. That 7% increase coincided with the a massive dropoff in opposing defense rankings, and increasing focus on his team mate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Not sure, maybe. But I don't think the analogies are equivalent. A 3 point shot, is a 3 point shot, regardless of what conference you play in. He's # 30 in the entire nation, pretty sure every single opposing coach made an emphasis of making sure to guard the dude that shoots 46% from 3.
    Defense matters. I'm decades older and I can shoot that kind of percentage in a competitive adult league. Put a good high school kid on me?...not so much. A D1 kid at this point?...I wouldn't get a shot off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Defense matters. I'm decades older and I can shoot that kind of percentage in a competitive adult league. Put a good high school kid on me?...not so much. A D1 kid at this point?...I wouldn't get a shot off.
    Right, but we are not talking about you, you have nothing to do with it. We are talking about David Jenkins. He shot 46% from three point land last season and was number 30 in the entire nation. What you and a few other guys appear to be arguing is that he only shot that well because he plays in a subpar conference. That very well may be the case, but that cannot be proven. You are advocating for correlation equalling causation. That is literally impossible to determine. Ja Morant will be the number two pick in the draft and plays in a terrible conference; he is a dynamic scorer, passer and athlete. He is good, despite the conference that he plays in. Besides it was either you or another poster that said that Jenkins only did so well because other defenses had to focus on Mike Daum, but as a team we have many weapons so that means that Jenkins would get even better looks with us? This is so odd that you guys are making me defend a player that I’m not even that high on. He is a great shooter, that is all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Right, but we are not talking about you, you have nothing to do with it. We are talking about David Jenkins. He shot 46% from three point land last season and was number 30 in the entire nation. What you and a few other guys appear to be arguing is that he only shot that well because he plays in a subpar conference. That very well may be the case, but that cannot be proven. You are advocating for correlation equalling causation. That is literally impossible to determine. Ja Morant will be the number two pick in the draft and plays in a terrible conference; he is a dynamic scorer, passer and athlete. He is good, despite the conference that he plays in. Besides it was either you or another poster that said that Jenkins only did so well because other defenses had to focus on Mike Daum, but as a team we have many weapons so that means that Jenkins would get even better looks with us? This is so odd that you guys are making me defend a player that I’m not even that high on. He is a great shooter, that is all.
    Well then, I guess that makes me a great shooter too.

    P.S. I used to be.

    I don't know David. I know next to nothing about his game. I wish him well. The point is, unless you have experience playing at higher levels, you can't even imagine the difference in speed, size and intelligence these athletes contend with as they move up the food chain. I'm always amazed when a freshman comes in and contributes right away. Those kids are freaks and I mean that endearingly. I am equally astonished at transfers from lower leagues that make an impact from the get. I believe Crandall had the tools to compete at the Zags level but he needed more time. The injury surely caused a setback but even so, another year in the system would have been extremely beneficial. Geno's stats were nowhere near as efficient as his numbers from North Dakota. I believe it was absolutely due to an elevation in competition even in WCC games versus Big Sky games.


    David may be one that makes the transition seamlessly. But, expecting stats to translate from Big Sky competition to what he would face at the Zags top ten level would be unusual, to say the least.

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Well then, I guess that makes me a great shooter too.

    P.S. I used to be.

    I don't know David. I know next to nothing about his game. I wish him well. The point is, unless you have experience playing at higher levels, you can't even imagine the difference in speed, size and intelligence these athletes contend with as they move up the food chain. I'm always amazed when a freshman comes in and contributes right away. Those kids are freaks and I mean that endearingly. I am equally astonished at transfers from lower leagues that make an impact from the get. I believe Crandall had the tools to compete at the Zags level but he needed more time. The injury surely caused a setback but even so, another year in the system would have been extremely beneficial. Geno's stats were nowhere near as efficient as his numbers from North Dakota. I believe it was absolutely due to an elevation in competition even in WCC games versus Big Sky games.


    David may be one that makes the transition seamlessly. But, expecting stats to translate from Big Sky competition to what he would face at the Zags top ten level would be unusual, to say the least.
    I will say it one last time and then we should move on because we are not going to change each other’s minds, you are advocating for causation to equal correlation. It may, or it may not. We won’t know until he plays for the zags, if he does.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    I will say it one last time and then we should move on because we are not going to change each other’s minds, you are advocating for causation to equal correlation. It may, or it may not. We won’t know until he plays for the zags, if he does.
    Just one more.

    Looking at the top forty 3 point percentage shooters from last year, you will be hard pressed to find players from leagues that are WCC or better. You then might be wondering what causes that. You might further explore the correlation between better athletes and lower shooting percentages.

    I'm just looking at the odds.

    Carry on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Just one more.

    Looking at the top forty 3 point percentage shooters from last year, you will be hard pressed to find players from leagues that are WCC or better. You then might be wondering what causes that. You might further explore the correlation between better athletes and lower shooting percentages.

    I'm just looking at the odds.

    Carry on.
    Steph Curry, Ja Morant, Damien Lillard. If you're good, you're good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Steph Curry, Ja Morant, Damien Lillard. If you're good, you're good.
    Gotcha. Haha. I knew you couldn't quit.

    Just having fun with you spy.

  18. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    We are talking about David Jenkins. He shot 46% from three point land last season and was number 30 in the entire nation. What you and a few other guys appear to be arguing is that he only shot that well because he plays in a subpar conference.
    Nobody is arguing that.


    What I and several others have pointed out is that one of several factors contributing to Jenkins' offensive stats were the defenses he was up against. Particularly last year, they were atrocious.
    The only offensive stat that wasn't at least partially effected by defense was FT%. It actually stayed constant year-on-year.

    Jenkins' opponents' defense was ranked 324 out of 351.
    He shot 38% from 3 and 45% from 3 (not 46% as you said a few times).

    What do you think would happen to that percentage if SDSU had instead faced high school teams all year?

    What do you think would happen to that percentage if SDSU had instead faced top-50 defenses all year?

  19. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Nobody is arguing that.


    What I and several others have pointed out is that one of several factors contributing to Jenkins' offensive stats were the defenses he was up against. Particularly last year, they were atrocious.
    The only offensive stat that wasn't at least partially effected by defense was FT%. It actually stayed constant year-on-year.

    Jenkins' opponents' defense was ranked 324 out of 351.
    He shot 38% from 3 and 45% from 3 (not 46% as you said a few times).

    What do you think would happen to that percentage if SDSU had instead faced high school teams all year?

    What do you think would happen to that percentage if SDSU had instead faced top-50 defenses all year?
    Steph Curry, Ja Morant, Damien Lillard. If you're good, you're good.

  20. #45
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    I guess the honeymoon is over.
    This post is for March Madness seeding purposes only.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sittingon50 View Post
    I guess the honeymoon is over.
    Please elaborate? You heard Jenkins is going elsewhere?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Please elaborate? You heard Jenkins is going elsewhere?
    Hahaha

  23. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Hahaha

  24. #49
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    Sometimes me thinks keyboards are too accessible to those with idle minds who tend to obsess... so many words.... having an opinion is good... feeling the need to continue to express it over and over isn't.... a sign of maturity is knowing this....

    Just my opinion...

    Go!! Zags!!!
    "Learn from the past, Plan for the future, Live in the Now!"

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigblahla View Post
    Sometimes me thinks keyboards are too accessible to those with idle minds who tend to obsess... so many words.... having an opinion is good... feeling the need to continue to express it over and over isn't.... a sign of maturity is knowing this....

    Just my opinion...

    Go!! Zags!!!
    I think Sittingon50 said it best.

    "I guess the honeymoon is over."

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