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Thread: David Jenkins is a phenomenal shooter; dropped 35 on Memphis

  1. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    Steph Curry, Ja Morant, Damien Lillard. If you're good, you're good.
    yes, but are you really comparing jenkins to three nba lottery picks? the only thing in common is they played in a small conference. if you want to look at stats in a vacuum that's fine, but don't expect a lot people to agree with you...of course, you seem to enjoy that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WallaWallaZag View Post
    yes, but are you really comparing jenkins to three nba lottery picks? the only thing in common is they played in a small conference. if you want to look at stats in a vacuum that's fine, but don't expect a lot people to agree with you...of course, you seem to enjoy that.
    No I am saying if you’re good you’re good regardless of your conference. I would think that Zag fans of all people would know this. But anyway, we are literally just repeating ourselves so it becomes about pride and not anything else, so I’m done. If he signs with us, great!

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    No I am saying if you’re good you’re good regardless of your conference.
    If that's all you are saying, nobody would disagree. But you are also saying far crazier things, such as that the defense you face does not impact your shooting percentages from the field.

    Is your opinion that the college 3pt shooting percentages of Steph, Ja, and Lillard, or for that matter Norvell or Jenkins would have had no changes if they'd played in the ACC/Big12 instead of where they did? How about if they'd been defended by high schoolers all year instead of low level D1 players?

    The idea that defense has no effect on offense is almost incomprehensibly bizarre. It's the algorithmic definition of what defense is. Kenpom (and others') usedefensive efficiency rankings which are calculting by looking at their effects on opponents offenses. We knew Texas TEch had a great defense not because of some version of Spy's vaunted "eye test" but because of what they were doing to their opponents' points per 100 possessions, relative to other teams' effects. Measuring the effect on their opponents points per 100 possessions is how it's calculated. You're arguing that the number of inches between one's head and their feet is "correlated but not causal" to height. In truth, it's what height IS.

    Half the top-12 teams defensively are also top-12 teams in lowest opponent 3pt%.

    Why the incredibly strong correlation if it's not causal? What's the confounding variable?

    By the way, the bottom third of the nation in 3pt% defense, AKA teams giving up 35% or more from 3, is dominated by small schools from the smallest conferences with almost nobody from the P6, the WCC, or the MW. So either the nation's most talented 3pt shooters are massively bunched together in the nation's worst teams, or else defense plays a major factor in limiting 3pt% at the top 8 conferences.
    Last edited by LTownZag; 05-05-2019 at 08:39 AM.

  4. #54
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    Devils advocate, our defense against Curry in the ncaa’s didn’t seem to matter a lick to him when he tourched is out of the tournament...

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    Quote Originally Posted by hooter73 View Post
    Devils advocate, our defense against Curry in the ncaa’s didn’t seem to matter a lick to him when he tourched is out of the tournament...
    That's a bit like saying "devil's advocate: it was was colder than average in April this year, is global warming/climate change a real thing?

    These aggregate effects of good defense vs offensive shooting percentage aren't always replicated in every game or small sample size of a given player in a given streak. Especially with generationally (all-time?) excellent extreme outliers like Curry.

    Curry went 8-10 from 3pt that game which is absurdly good. In his next 3 tournament games (Georgetown, Wisconsin, Kansas) he shot 35.7% (15/42)

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    If that's all you are saying, nobody would disagree. But you are also saying far crazier things, such as that the defense you face does not impact your shooting percentages from the field.

    Is your opinion that the college 3pt shooting percentages of Steph, Ja, and Lillard, or for that matter Norvell or Jenkins would have had no changes if they'd played in the ACC/Big12 instead of where they did? How about if they'd been defended by high schoolers all year instead of low level D1 players?

    The idea that defense has no effect on offense is almost incomprehensibly bizarre. It's the algorithmic definition of what defense is. Kenpom (and others') usedefensive efficiency rankings which are calculting by looking at their effects on opponents offenses. We knew Texas TEch had a great defense not because of some version of Spy's vaunted "eye test" but because of what they were doing to their opponents' points per 100 possessions, relative to other teams' effects. Measuring the effect on their opponents points per 100 possessions is how it's calculated. You're arguing that the number of inches between one's head and their feet is "correlated but not causal" to height. In truth, it's what height IS.

    Half the top-12 teams defensively are also top-12 teams in lowest opponent 3pt%.

    Why the incredibly strong correlation if it's not causal? What's the confounding variable?

    By the way, the bottom third of the nation in 3pt% defense, AKA teams giving up 35% or more from 3, is dominated by small schools from the smallest conferences with almost nobody from the P6, the WCC, or the MW. So either the nation's most talented 3pt shooters are massively bunched together in the nation's worst teams, or else defense plays a major factor in limiting 3pt% at the top 8 conferences.
    Seriously brother, I said I was done with the conversation. You can respect that or you can talk to yourself. The choice is yours. If you want to continue to be argumentative and make it about you, knock yourself out. I have already stated my opinion and we are just repeating ourselves which is based in pride, something I’m trying to work on. So have a great day brother.

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    Another interesting question for anyone who says defense plays no causal role in determining 3pt%:

    Why would coaches and players then bother with scouting and game planning for opponent defensive schemes and players? Why bother trying to get advantageous switches to a mismatch? Heck, why do teams even believe in the fiction of a "mismatch" if the defender is irrelevant and a shooter is going to arbitrarily hit x% of their shots no matter who is on them?

    (As long as you remain not banned, you are free to contribute or not contribute to this or any discussion here, which obviously you know. Don't feel compelled to answer on my behalf if it's not a discussion you are interested in.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by thespywhozaggedme View Post
    No I am saying if you’re good you’re good regardless of your conference. I would think that Zag fans of all people would know this. But anyway, we are literally just repeating ourselves so it becomes about pride and not anything else, so I’m done. If he signs with us, great!
    agree with ya Spy.

    others seem fixated on the fight and won’t/can’t let go of bone.

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zagceo View Post
    agree with ya Spy.

    others seem fixated on the fight and won’t/can’t let go of bone.
    Meh, life's waaay too short to argue over things that aren't really important in the grand scheme of things, just so you can "be right". I'm a sports nut, love all sports, but yesterday my buddy and I were actually having a fairly deep conversation (which is extremely rare for me) and we said that in the big picture, sports means nothing, like in societal hierarchy, sports is completely irrelevant. And again, I'm a sports fanatic.

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    Here is a nice article on ... Jenkins (surprise!), that might interest readers if the feud above has become tedious:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=gonz...&tbm=nws&cad=h

    The takeaway: "David Jenkins, formerly of the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, has reportedly narrowed his list down to three schools: Oregon, Gonzaga, and UNLV. ... Prediction: While I think that this is a relatively tight race between each of the three schools, Gonzaga simply caters to every single one of Jenkins’ needs in his final two seasons of college. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this end up with Jenkins in Las Vegas, but my mind tells me Gonzaga for the highly-touted transfer."
    SLOZag
    "Kids come here to better their own lives, not ours. If you take a player’s failures as a personal affront…. check yourself." - Chick-Stratino'sUrDaddy

  11. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by SLOZag View Post
    Here is a nice article on ... Jenkins (surprise!), that might interest readers if the feud above has become tedious:

    https://www.google.com/search?q=gonz...&tbm=nws&cad=h

    The takeaway: "David Jenkins, formerly of the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, has reportedly narrowed his list down to three schools: Oregon, Gonzaga, and UNLV. ... Prediction: While I think that this is a relatively tight race between each of the three schools, Gonzaga simply caters to every single one of Jenkins’ needs in his final two seasons of college. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this end up with Jenkins in Las Vegas, but my mind tells me Gonzaga for the highly-touted transfer."
    Good article. Thank you for posting that

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    Matt Mooney, the guard from TT who may have been the best grad transfer this past season transferred from South Dakota, the same conference that David Jenkins is transferring from, the Summit League. Mooney shot 38.6% from 3 this past season at TT. The year before he shot 35.2% from 3 at South Dakota. Just sayin’.

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...36/matt-mooney

  13. #63
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    I just want Jenkins to commit then worry about the other stuff later. What I would look for is a quick shooting release, the ability to create, and taking smart shots (not just jacking up).

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    Quote Originally Posted by LTownZag View Post
    Are you really arguing the point that it's "objective" rather than "subjective" to call a player with Jenkins' stats "great" rather than "good"?

    Not only did Jenkins team play a terrible schedule, their opponents were especially bad at defense. Here's their opponents' kenpom from this year. That little number circled in yellow is Jenkins' team's opponents defensive ranking. 324/351 means 90% of college teams and players had tougher defensive opponents.



    Which is most likely from playing against a terrible (bottom decile) bunch of defenders:

    A: No effect on 3pt%
    B: An effect that increases 3pt%
    C: An effect that decreases 3pt%


    If you think that an argument of if someone if "good" vs "great" is objective rather than subjective, here's some relevant info.
    Totally agree. Mooney played real teams and showed he could hang with them out of South Dakota. Jenkins plays Texas and was horrible. Hard to tell from one game, coulda just been an off game idk, but at least we know what we’re getting from Gilder. Still, if really like to see what Jenkins would bring at GU. Would be intriguing to say the least
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  15. #65

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    Quote Originally Posted by gonzagafan62 View Post
    Totally agree. Mooney played real teams and showed he could hang with them out of South Dakota. Jenkins plays Texas and was horrible. Hard to tell from one game, coulda just been an off game idk, but at least we know what we’re getting from Gilder. Still, if really like to see what Jenkins would bring at GU. Would be intriguing to say the least
    35 verse Memphis and 32 for Colorado state ain’t bad

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    Quote Originally Posted by zagsfanforlife View Post
    35 verse Memphis and 32 for Colorado state ain’t bad
    Yes Memphis is a good one true I forgot how good they were defensively. Thought they were closer to a 100th ranked defensive team but they were 54th. , Colorado state was 261.
    21 Straight Big Dances

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    10 Sweet Sixteens (5 Straight)

    4 Elite Eights

    2017 FINAL FOUR

    2 Winningest Players in college basketball history (Karnowski 137, Perkins 134)

    The Best Point Guard to ever play the game: John Stockton, most assists, most steals.

  17. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markburn1 View Post
    Well then, I guess that makes me a great shooter too.

    P.S. I used to be.

    I don't know David. I know next to nothing about his game. I wish him well. The point is, unless you have experience playing at higher levels, you can't even imagine the difference in speed, size and intelligence these athletes contend with as they move up the food chain. I'm always amazed when a freshman comes in and contributes right away. Those kids are freaks and I mean that endearingly. I am equally astonished at transfers from lower leagues that make an impact from the get. I believe Crandall had the tools to compete at the Zags level but he needed more time. The injury surely caused a setback but even so, another year in the system would have been extremely beneficial. Geno's stats were nowhere near as efficient as his numbers from North Dakota. I believe it was absolutely due to an elevation in competition even in WCC games versus Big Sky games.


    David may be one that makes the transition seamlessly. But, expecting stats to translate from Big Sky competition to what he would face at the Zags top ten level would be unusual, to say the least.
    Seems to me that there are several factors in this; ultimately it's about the looks you get; how well your team moves the ball and creates space for you to shoot, how much the other team can focus on you v other players on your team, etc, as well as size/speed/bb iq of those defending you.

    I get your point; at near 65 I can make open 3's in pickup games, but I can't get a shot off if someone bothers to guard me.

    Jason Calliste averaged 14 ppg as a junior at Detroit Mercy on 36% 3 pt shooting, 38% overall fg. As a grad trans senior 6th man at the U of Oregon, he averaged 12 ppg on 50+% 3 pt shooting, 52% overall fg. That was presumably against much stronger defense. But he had better teammates and played in an offense that presumably got him better looks anyway.

    One example that lends credence to spy's case.

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    Quote Originally Posted by maynard g krebs View Post
    Seems to me that there are several factors in this; ultimately it's about the looks you get; how well your team moves the ball and creates space for you to shoot, how much the other team can focus on you v other players on your team, etc, as well as size/speed/bb iq of those defending you.

    I get your point; at near 65 I can make open 3's in pickup games, but I can't get a shot off if someone bothers to guard me.

    Jason Calliste averaged 14 ppg as a junior at Detroit Mercy on 36% 3 pt shooting, 38% overall fg. As a grad trans senior 6th man at the U of Oregon, he averaged 12 ppg on 50+% 3 pt shooting, 52% overall fg. That was presumably against much stronger defense. But he had better teammates and played in an offense that presumably got him better looks anyway.

    One example that lends credence to spy's case.
    Tahnks Maynard, I appreciate your objectivity and fairness. Matt Mooney was the other one, shot better at TT from 3 then he did at SD.

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    I'm not even that worried about Jenkins as a shooter, it's everything else that raises questions for me. Can he defend or get to them rim at the highest level?

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    To all the keyboard experts out there...I’ll trust this staff’s opinion over any of ours 100 times over. Remember when Clarke announced his decision to transfer. Most of us had to google his name. Turned out all right.

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    I trust the staff as well. In the long run they clearly make way more excellent recruiting decisions than questionable ones. But there have definitely been misses along the way. 95 percent of the time, I'm on board with the players we're recruiting. I feel 5% is a fair number to call in to question

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    Quote Originally Posted by Worthington View Post
    I'm not even that worried about Jenkins as a shooter, it's everything else that raises questions for me. Can he defend or get to them rim at the highest level?
    Defense is going to be an uphill slog next season with so many young players. I do see an argument for recruiting length and strength, but scoring is also a consideration. Putting together a tournament team like last year’s is not on the table. As fans we’re looking at a rebuilding year with the loss of really terrific players and with a gain of very good recruits who lack experience. We’ve never experienced a season like that so of course there’s some bickering.
    Parlez-vous français?

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    This has all been hashed and rehashed on this board, but I'll repeat it here. GU is in a new era. GU can recruit way better than ever before, but for the most part, these higher level recruits won't be here four years. Value the 4 year players and grad transfers for the experience they bring that is essential to a title run. It's the combination of experience and coaching up great young talent that can still make us contenders, year in and year out. Our staff is definitely up to making the adjustments. The sweet 16 run continues.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JAGzag View Post
    To all the keyboard experts out there...I’ll trust this staff’s opinion over any of ours 100 times over. Remember when Clarke announced his decision to transfer. Most of us had to google his name. Turned out all right.
    Lil ain’t that the truth

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    Quote Originally Posted by JAGzag View Post
    To all the keyboard experts out there...I’ll trust this staff’s opinion over any of ours 100 times over. Remember when Clarke announced his decision to transfer. Most of us had to google his name. Turned out all right.
    Clarke turned out to be my favorite (top 2 at least) Zag ever. NWG and him are tied. Crazy to think how good both could have been for GU had they been here more than 1 year.

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